Australian Model 3 Waiting Room

[pssturges]

I sold my Bt-50 diesel ute in excited anticipation about a month after I ordered, partly also to get a good price for it with the used car market being so hot. Wife and I now sharing her Corolla Hybrid. Expected that to only be a couple of months at most . Due to some fortunate circumstances it hasn’t actually been too bad with only one car, but I’m not sure how long that will last!

 

[trippa]

In the meantime, what car is everyone transitioning from?

i sold my r35 GTR in Feb while the market was going crazy. Miss the drive dearly, not the cost factor
Lucky i still have a 2011 Subaru STI to drive while i wait what feels like forever for my LR.

 

[ImprovKnife]

Mine was 28/11/21 with an estimate of 8 to 12 weeks (M3LR). First thing I remember reading on this forum was @Vedaprime saying delivery was a rollercoaster... little did I know it would be nearly a year, and I'm still not sure I'll get it before the year is out. Not sure even Veda could have predicted how much of a rollercoaster it was gonna be this year!

In the meantime, what car is everyone transitioning from? I currently drive my partners car... a 2017 Suziki Ignis So both excited, and frustrated to still be driving the Ignis nearly a year after I thought I'd bought an awesome Tesla

Wow that's some BS. As if they haven't delivered December orders yet. Not looking good for my 22/1/22 order. Really at my wits end. At this stage I might just bite the bullet and put in orders for the polestar 2 and ioniq 5 and pull the trigger on whichever comes first.

 

[old_geez]

There were 4,417 Model 3 registrations in Australia in Q1 2022 according to this article. I estimate zero in Q2 and Q3 and then maybe 7,000 in Q4.

For Model Y, I estimate 5,000 in Q3 and 7,000 in Q4.

Yup, Hazy and I both had our cars delivered last Saturday. There were also 13 others in Qld, and 134 others around Australia. So I'd take this 'guesstimate' with a grain of salt...

 

[Ormaus]

There were 4,417 Model 3 registrations in Australia in Q1 2022 according to this article. I estimate zero in Q2 and Q3 and then maybe 7,000 in Q4.

For Model Y, I estimate 5,000 in Q3 and 7,000 in Q4.

Well there have already been some on this forum who have just got there cars in Q2.

I think the number was 150 or so for Q2 ??

 

[JCau]

There were 4,417 Model 3 registrations in Australia in Q1 2022 according to this article. I estimate zero in Q2 and Q3 and then maybe 7,000 in Q4.

For Model Y, I estimate 5,000 in Q3 and 7,000 in Q4.

This pessimism about Q3 deliveries is unwarranted - because a calculation of M3 order backlog numbers and clearance rates/times shows that there has to be deliveries in Q3 if Tesla's current delivery estimate is accurate.

Let's look at the numbers.

From Q1 deliveries we know that our current quota is about 4500 M3 per quarter. At the end of Q1, delivery estimates had increased to 6 to 9 months, indicating a backlog of at least 9000 orders, ie 2 quarters to clear. The large increase in delivery estimates also shows a large increase in order numbers for Q1 above the 4500 quota.
The worst delivery estimates in June before the MY order opening was 9-12 months for a calculated 13500 order backlog.
M3 orders in Q3 will be lower than Q1 orders because of the MY effect, but probably still of the order of 5000 cars - as delivery of M3 improved by only 1 month after MY

If there are no deliveries in Q3, then the backlog at the end of Q3 will be over 18,000 M3s.

The upgrades will increase GF3 M3 output from 5500 to 7700 per week, an increase of 40%. If Australia's proportion is similar, then deliveries will increase to about 6000 per quarter from the Q1 high.
So a new order now can only be delivered after the 18000+ backlog has been shifted - after 3 full quarters at 6000 per quarter starting Q4, so the current delivery estimate should begin at Jul 2023, but it is actually 5 months earlier at Feb 23.

So something doesn't add up. My optimistic take is the we will get deliveries of at least 5000 M3s in Q3. Which allocation they will come from, I don't know, but they have to for the dates to work.

The above calculation assumes that Tesla's historical delivery estimates were done at 4500 per quarter. If they had knowledge of the upgrades, then the actual backlog has been even larger and deliveries in Q3 need to be larger.
Helpful criticism of the above estimates welcomed.

 

[old_geez]

On another note, I just noticed the prices for accessories on the Tesla app jumped considerably overnight.

 

[Luddo]

In the meantime, what car is everyone transitioning from?

Donated my 2004 Mazda 3 to charity in May before the recent delay. Currently in a 2012 Hyundai iload.

 

[Julcars]

Transitioning from a VW Golf. My son is taking it off my hands.
He will go into the 'Golf waiting room' (gets his Ps) in a few weeks.
Feel free to check in from time to time to ask which of the waiting rooms has the more impatient waiter...

 

[trippa]

how funny would it be if after all talk and chatter about deliveries. The Current Viking Passama and morning crystal due in brisbane in a few days be stealthily stacked to the brim with our m3’s….or 20k forkies.

 

[javataco]

I’m coming from bus/tram (to get to and from work). So the new car don’t come soon enough!

 

[Hoopyfrood]

This pessimism about Q3 deliveries is unwarranted - because a calculation of M3 order backlog numbers and clearance rates/times shows that there has to be deliveries in Q3 if Tesla's current delivery estimate is accurate.

Let's look at the numbers.

From Q1 deliveries we know that our current quota is about 4500 M3 per quarter. At the end of Q1, delivery estimates had increased to 6 to 9 months, indicating a backlog of at least 9000 orders, ie 2 quarters to clear. The large increase in delivery estimates also shows a large increase in order numbers for Q1 above the 4500 quota.
The worst delivery estimates in June before the MY order opening was 9-12 months for a calculated 13500 order backlog.
M3 orders in Q3 will be lower than Q1 orders because of the MY effect, but probably still of the order of 5000 cars - as delivery of M3 improved by only 1 month after MY

If there are no deliveries in Q3, then the backlog at the end of Q3 will be over 18,000 M3s.

The upgrades will increase GF3 M3 output from 5500 to 7700 per week, an increase of 40%. If Australia's proportion is similar, then deliveries will increase to about 6000 per quarter from the Q1 high.
So a new order now can only be delivered after the 18000+ backlog has been shifted - after 3 full quarters at 6000 per quarter starting Q4, so the current delivery estimate should begin at Jul 2023, but it is actually 5 months earlier at Feb 23.

So something doesn't add up. My optimistic take is the we will get deliveries of at least 5000 M3s in Q3. Which allocation they will come from, I don't know, but they have to for the dates to work.

The above calculation assumes that Tesla's historical delivery estimates were done at 4500 per quarter. If they had knowledge of the upgrades, then the actual backlog has been even larger and deliveries in Q3 need to be larger.
Helpful criticism of the above estimates welcomed.

My only constructive criticism would be that none of our original delivery estimates were accurate with the exception of a lucky 1 or 2 January orders who got the demo deliveries. For some in '21 they were way longer than the original and that was before all the Covid stuff. For them to stick to their original EDDs would be the exception rather than the rule.

What bugs me is that March orders in the UK are getting deliveries this week. And if they still get favour in July i think there must be something wrong in Tesla with regard to Australian orders. Which is why i wonder if we are being too passive. Or possibly we have a dud heading up Tesla in Australia? Patience is only a virtue up to a point and then it acts against your own interests.

 

[PcS000]

I had a Cerato GT that I sold 12+ months ago as the price was too good pass up. I bought a Hyundai Accent as a temp car while I decided what to get next. I wasn’t supposed to have tit for this long but it has been a good little car

 

[moa999]

There were 4,417 Model 3 registrations in Australia in Q1 2022 according to this article. I estimate zero in Q2 and Q3 and then maybe 7,000 in Q4.

For Model Y, I estimate 5,000 in Q3 and 7,000 in Q4.

As above. There were some Q1 cars that slipped to Q2 (mostly Tas and WA cars) and the 150-odd 'demos' that have been delivered in the last two weeks.
So i'll say 195 for Q2..

Q3 is an unknown but won't be 0 and I expect to be a lot higher.
Back in 2020 with Covid shutdowns in the US in April, they managed to get vehicles produced in the second week of May into Australia by end of quarter.
These shutdowns are relatively short, one line at a time, and Aus production a small amount of total output.
I'll go for 6000 3s (a partial catch-up) and 2000 Ys.

 

[coref1]

I am wondering. Are we all being far too passive to Tesla and far too aggressive to our fellow support group members/amateur Tesla analysts? Could our energy be better directed?

I agree the problem is Tesla not its customers. I ordered my LR on 16/1. Was Told 14 to 20 weeks. I understand the three week lockdown was out of Tesla's control but feel they could have still built some cars for Q2. My app now shows a edd of August to October but now they have a planned lockdown right at the time they would normally produce NZ/Aus cars. Very disappointed. But to me the biggest disappointment is the lack communication coming from Tesla. All I ask is they be open and honest about they're plans so I can plan myself.
I feel the Tesla dream is falling away. I'm not sure I want to hand my money over to a company that treats it's customers so poorly.

 

[Lerxt]

I totally respect you estimations and guesses but first of all we had some deliveries in Q2 and for tesla not to ship anything in Q3 that will be a massive loss for the company as we all know no deliveries mean no pay for the company .and lets compare the numbers to Q1at 4417 and say thats the number expecting for Q3 . Lets say all orders were M3 rwd at $59900 before the price increase plus delivery fee of 1375 thats $61275 per vehicle times 4417 that $270651675 that over quarter of a billion loss from australian orders alone. So i dont thing they would allow that much loss, when giga texas and berlin according to Elon himslef are loosing money. Thats my opinion.

Its not a loss. They simply haven't collected that revenue yet.

 

[Lerxt]

Or possibly we have a dud heading up Tesla in Australia? Patience is only a virtue up to a point and then it acts against your own interests.

A dud heading up Tesla Australia? No. Australia is simply not that important a market for Tesla. The country is negative on EV's, has restrictive taxes on the vehicles and it doesn't represent a great deal of revenue when compared to other markets. Getting stroppy at Tesla will have zero effect. I'd suggest that if you're getting upset then either cancel your order or just think about something else. If you wait, eventually you'll get a car that cost you far below the current market value.

 

[Broony]

As above. There were some Q1 cars that slipped to Q2 (mostly Tas and WA cars) and the 150-odd 'demos' that have been delivered in the last two weeks.
So i'll say 195 for Q2..

Q3 is an unknown but won't be 0 and I expect to be a lot higher.
Back in 2020 with Covid shutdowns in the US in April, they managed to get vehicles produced in the second week of May into Australia by end of quarter.
These shutdowns are relatively short, one line at a time, and Aus production a small amount of total output.
I'll go for 6000 3s (a partial catch-up) and 2000 Ys.

if there were to zero deliveries in Q3 we would have had another phone call......

 

[Joe__B]

I agree the problem is Tesla not its customers. I ordered my LR on 16/1. Was Told 14 to 20 weeks. I understand the three week lockdown was out of Tesla's control but feel they could have still built some cars for Q2. My app now shows a edd of August to October but now they have a planned lockdown right at the time they would normally produce NZ/Aus cars. Very disappointed. But to me the biggest disappointment is the lack communication coming from Tesla. All I ask is they be open and honest about they're plans so I can plan myself.
I feel the Tesla dream is falling away. I'm not sure I want to hand my money over to a company that treats it's customers so poorly.

I agree. The car we've ordered is for my wife and she won't be swayed to any other current options and doesn't mind too much about the wait. If it was a car for me, I would probably have cancelled by now. Not that I think that would affect Tesla a single bit.

 

[rtvanda]

I am wondering. Are we all being far too passive to Tesla and far too aggressive to our fellow support group members/amateur Tesla analysts? Could our energy be better directed?

Something like a class action for breach of promise or broken contract? discrimination based on location? or ...