Australian Model 3 Waiting Room

[Testesslim3]

these are definitely “fantasy numbers”
When I charge my M3P to 90%, the range only shows 440km.
When I charge to 100%, it shows 490km.
I dunno where I could get 547km…

Agree. As I said in my post, these are not real world numbers. they are just Tesla numbers. no difference to what other ICE manufacturer provides on fuel economy numbers. a manufacturer says their ICE vehicle provides 8L/100km, but have anyone ever achieved that number in urban driving? nope.

 

[Jer1703]

Anyone in Brisbane/regional QLD who believe their car is on Morning Clara able to share their EDD?

 

[dogstarlady]

Dont think you'd even notice the fluffy dice - why do my eyes hurt?

View attachment 832853

What sort of business are you running Ormaus???

 

[Miku]

these are definitely “fantasy numbers”
When I charge my M3P to 90%, the range only shows 440km.
When I charge to 100%, it shows 490km.
I dunno where I could get 547km…

I suppose if you drove like Bjorn's "Sunday Driving" series of videos then you could probably match or exceed Tesla's numbers Not exactly complete fantasy but definitely too optimistic for normal daily driving style.

 

[old_geez]

I suppose if you drove like Bjorn's "Sunday Driving" series of videos then you could probably match or exceed Tesla's numbers Not exactly complete fantasy but definitely too optimistic for normal daily driving style.

I can’t work out why mine has been like that since I got it though, there was no driving history for it to work off.

 

[ChrisW67]

Too close to the airport

Are you one of the three drone drivers that takes any notice of the regulations?! Well done Sir.

 

[FlyingKiwi]

I can’t work out why mine has been like that since I got it though, there was no driving history for it to work off.

The 547km figure is the WLTP range as shown on the AU website. Tesla doesn't use that, it uses EPA range data for the battery meter when that's set to Km or miles instead of %. And it's not related to your driving style, it uses a fixed number so if you have a trailer hanging off the bumper don't expect to get anywhere near the battery meter range.

The trip planner is aware of your driving style and does use it to estimate range.

 

[Testesslim3]

Morning Crystal draught increased from 8.4 to 9.8. is it being loaded with forklifts!

 

[MagicalseT]

Does he have an idea if they will be making AUS orders early after resuming. Or if there will be more Model 3 on ships to come

From trying to work out what they’re going to make and when, I’m pretty sure that’s in the “who knows” basket. Let’s just be grateful for any news he can give us when he gets it. VedaPrime is a great source of info for us and I for one appreciate the time and effort he puts in to keep us up to date.

 

[Silver Xu]

From trying to work out what they’re going to make and when, I’m pretty sure that’s in the “who knows” basket. Let’s just be grateful for any news he can give us when he gets it. VedaPrime is a great source of info for us and I for one appreciate the time and effort he puts in to keep us up to date.

https://www.scmp.com/business/china...hai-factory-upgrade-boosts-production-30-cent

It says

It is also conducting an upgrade of the production line used to assemble Model 3 cars, due for completion on August 7.

Last 3 days' top delivery composition from Xiaote.com in the Chinese domestic Market:

• Model Y RWD 97.82%
• Model Y LR 0.73%
• Model 3 RWD 0.85%

I would expect the M3 production to remain shut until close to the 7th of August.

 

[pssturges]

Been wondering about known AU production days v’s the vins allocated so far, so thought I’d look at the numbers.

Pre-shutdown M3 capacity was 5500 per week.

We know there was a couple of days of AU production, just prior to shutdown. We also know AU production happened from the initial M3 reopening on 5/8. There also seems to have been limited production after an early re-opening on the 4th, but we won’t worry about that for now. Production continued right through to 17th. So in total thats 15 days of known AU production.

So potentially there *could* be 11875 M3‘s produced for Australia.

So how many VINs have already been allocated? Dunno. Anyone’s guess really, but I would suggest way less than 11875.

I think we can assume in general now that orders exceed deliveries each quarter. Q1 2022 there were 4417 deliveries. Orders per quarter, may be 5000-6000? VIN allocations so far this quarter are a little bit hit and miss, but are clearly less than a quarter’s with of orders. Some where in the order of a month to 6 weeks at most. So my guesstimate is that we have about 2500 VINs at most so far.

So where’s the rest of the M3’s? Possibilities include:

1. Less than full production capacity. Possibly due to supply issues, or maybe hobbled somehow due to the upgrade process.
2. Not all production RHD or Australia bound, some certainly are headed for NZ
3. M3 line partially used for MY production. I read somewhere that it is possible and has been done before
4. More VINs still to be allocated with the cars waiting at the factory or at the dock or even already en-route.

My optimistic hope is that there is some of each of those at play, so therefore there are still some vins to be allocated for cars already produced.

Obviously, this is all speculation, based on a few tid-bits that we know for sure. Happy to be corrected on any of the details or assumptions.

What do you all think?

 

[MagicalseT]

https://www.scmp.com/business/china...hai-factory-upgrade-boosts-production-30-cent

It says


Last 3 days' top delivery composition from Xiaote.com in the Chinese domestic Market:

• Model Y RWD 97.82%
• Model Y LR 0.73%
• Model 3 RWD 0.85%

I would expect the M3 production to remain shut until close to the 7th of August.

This was my original post a while ago… as mentioned it’s about VedaPrime tweeting as soon as he hears anything about the reopening of the M3 production line. I’m aware it’s apparently closed until 7th Aug, but as with the recent upgrade on the Y line, it may open earlier that planned.

“For all you M3 Q1 “orderers” on here, I’ve just heard back from the amazing VedaPrime. He’s said if he hears any news on the M3 restart in Shanghai, he will “tweet” it for us. So… make sure you follow him on Twitter and of course subscribe to his service: Vedaprime Tesla Trackingl

 

[Silver Xu]

This was my original post a while ago… as mentioned it’s about VedaPrime tweeting as soon as he hears anything about the reopening of the M3 production line. I’m aware it’s apparently closed until 7th Aug, but as with the recent upgrade on the Y line, it may open earlier that planned.

“For all you M3 Q1 “orderers” on here, I’ve just heard back from the amazing VedaPrime. He’s said if he hears any news on the M3 restart in Shanghai, he will “tweet” it for us. So… make sure you follow him on Twitter and of course subscribe to his service: Vedaprime Tesla Trackingl

I am aware of that, reopening the Y line was days before the planned 14th of July but not by too much.

I am checking VedaPrime on Twitter multiple times a day lol.

Fingers crossed everyone.

 

[Dany]

Been wondering about known AU production days v’s the vins allocated so far, so thought I’d look at the numbers.

Pre-shutdown M3 capacity was 5500 per week.

We know there was a couple of days of AU production, just prior to shutdown. We also know AU production happened from the initial M3 reopening on 5/8. There also seems to have been limited production after an early re-opening on the 4th, but we won’t worry about that for now. Production continued right through to 17th. So in total thats 15 days of known AU production.

So potentially there *could* be 11875 M3‘s produced for Australia.

So how many VINs have already been allocated? Dunno. Anyone’s guess really, but I would suggest way less than 11875.

I think we can assume in general now that orders exceed deliveries each quarter. Q1 2022 there were 4417 deliveries. Orders per quarter, may be 5000-6000? VIN allocations so far this quarter are a little bit hit and miss, but are clearly less than a quarter’s with of orders. Some where in the order of a month to 6 weeks at most. So my guesstimate is that we have about 2500 VINs at most so far.

So where’s the rest of the M3’s? Possibilities include:

1. Less than full production capacity. Possibly due to supply issues, or maybe hobbled somehow due to the upgrade process.
2. Not all production RHD or Australia bound, some certainly are headed for NZ
3. M3 line partially used for MY production. I read somewhere that it is possible and has been done before
4. More VINs still to be allocated with the cars waiting at the factory or at the dock or even already en-route.

My optimistic hope is that there is some of each of those at play, so therefore there are still some vins to be allocated for cars already produced.

Obviously, this is all speculation, based on a few tid-bits that we know for sure. Happy to be corrected on any of the details or assumptions.

What do you all think?

Ur lucky if we got 1000 of those not all production are for AU . They gives us bits and pieces. If what ur saying is true . That would cover all q1/q2 and wont be a back log

 

[Silver Xu]

Ur lucky if we got 1000 of those not all production are for AU . They gives us bits and pieces. If what ur saying is true . That would cover all q1/q2 and wont be a back log

What I learned from here was that Tesla builds cars to meet shipments. They spend the rest of the time building for the Chinese domestic markets (about 40%) while shipment is quiet.

In another word when there's an Australia-bound ship with Tesla reserved space, there will be production for the Australians. Morning Clara has bene delivering Tesla for sometime now.

 

[Fazza]

The LR and Performance model 3 are limited to 11kW charging (on AC) just like the SR+

You might be thinking of the original (pre 2016 facelift) Model S which could be upgraded to 22kW charging.

yep true my bad .. all this time i thought they could charge at faster on AC with the original SR/+ 55kwh battery vs 75kwh on the LR and P

 

[matty_u2]

What I learned from here was that Tesla builds cars to meet shipments. They spend the rest of the time building for the Chinese domestic markets (about 40%) while shipment is quiet.

In another word when there's an Australia-bound ship with Tesla reserved space, there will be production for the Australians.

I think with the 3 ships scheduled to leave Shanghai (obviously not all for Tesla) mid-August that RHD production may fire up once the factory re opens. Here's hoping!

 

[Silver Xu]

I think with the 3 ships scheduled to leave Shanghai (obviously not all for Tesla) mid-August that RHD production may fire up once the factory re opens. Here's hoping!

In my opinion, that's usually how it works.

In addition, about 1/6 of Q1 RWD orders have already been delivered in March. I really can't think of the other 5/6 being dragged into Q4.

 

[matty_u2]

In my opinion, that's usually how it works.

In addition, about 1/6 of Q1 RWD orders have already been delivered in March. I really can't think of the other 5/6 being dragged into Q4.

Yep, I agree. I actually think it'd be more than that, a substantial number wouldn't have been tracked in the spreadsheet.

 

[Vedaprime]

Been wondering about known AU production days v’s the vins allocated so far, so thought I’d look at the numbers.

Pre-shutdown M3 capacity was 5500 per week.

We know there was a couple of days of AU production, just prior to shutdown. We also know AU production happened from the initial M3 reopening on 5/8. There also seems to have been limited production after an early re-opening on the 4th, but we won’t worry about that for now. Production continued right through to 17th. So in total thats 15 days of known AU production.

So potentially there *could* be 11875 M3‘s produced for Australia.

So how many VINs have already been allocated? Dunno. Anyone’s guess really, but I would suggest way less than 11875.

I think we can assume in general now that orders exceed deliveries each quarter. Q1 2022 there were 4417 deliveries. Orders per quarter, may be 5000-6000? VIN allocations so far this quarter are a little bit hit and miss, but are clearly less than a quarter’s with of orders. Some where in the order of a month to 6 weeks at most. So my guesstimate is that we have about 2500 VINs at most so far.

So where’s the rest of the M3’s? Possibilities include:

1. Less than full production capacity. Possibly due to supply issues, or maybe hobbled somehow due to the upgrade process.
2. Not all production RHD or Australia bound, some certainly are headed for NZ
3. M3 line partially used for MY production. I read somewhere that it is possible and has been done before
4. More VINs still to be allocated with the cars waiting at the factory or at the dock or even already en-route.

My optimistic hope is that there is some of each of those at play, so therefore there are still some vins to be allocated for cars already produced.

Obviously, this is all speculation, based on a few tid-bits that we know for sure. Happy to be corrected on any of the details or assumptions.

What do you all think?

ah, no. This is not at all how it works re production. Australia is basically a rounding error in production terms. Over 99% produced is for other markets. Even in one shift they build for other markets down the line Even when Au is built. The 3 line is still down for a while yet.