Autonomous Car Progress

[scottf200]

I hope it is that good but we don't know yet. We have not seen what the FSD beta can do.

A couple of beta users examples here:

 

[diplomat33]

A couple of beta users examples here:

Thanks. I've seen those already. Yes, the FSD beta can handle turns at intersections and auto lane changes on city streets to follow routes, which is awesome. Obviously, it is not super reliable yet which is to be expected for something that is beta. But it will get better. The FSD Beta is super cool!

 

[scottf200]

Thanks. I've seen those already. Yes, the FSD beta can handle turns at intersections and auto lane changes on city streets to follow routes, which is awesome. Obviously, it is not super reliable yet which is to be expected for something that is beta. But it will get better. The FSD Beta is super cool!

This is one in it's more lengthy version and it is over-the-top with some giddy silli-ness IMO **however** it does show/discuss how the software is acting a little like a cautious human would that needs to creep forward / hesitate to see both sides or get closer to the corner to 'look around' it. 5:20 in.

 

[diplomat33]

This is one in it's more lengthy version and it is over-the-top with some giddy silli-ness IMO **however** it does show/discuss how the software is acting a little like a cautious human would that needs to creep forward / hesitate to see both sides or get closer to the corner to 'look around' it. 5:30 in.

Thanks. I've seen that one too. I do try to watch every video I can get my hands on.

I have to say some of these youtubers act like they've never heard of autonomous driving before in their life. I mean, they act all crazy impressed that the Tesla could even make a right turn or that the Tesla could read the traffic light, wait for the incoming traffic to clear before making an unprotected left turn or creep forward to see around a corner. This is all just good driving policy that any autonomous car worth its salt needs to have. It is how an autonomous car is supposed to act.

 

[diplomat33]

Smart Summon on the new FSD Beta.

 

[ThomasD]

How long do you guys think FSD will be in BETA

 

[Daniel in SD]

How long do you guys think FSD will be in BETA

Who knows. I think it will never achieve the reliability necessary for unsupervised operation on the current hardware. There may be some people here who think it will achieve it before the end of next year. Right now no one here even knows how good it currently is.

 

[drtimhill]

Disengagements will vary by condition, such as city driving, traffic congestion, and hell bent drivers. In other words the distance between disengagements will be much higher on a not so crowded limited access freeways. Suspect disengagement distance is less than 4 miles in crowded city. As you say, would be good to get a number that we can track. I'm sure some youtubers will provide some. Predict it will be 4x better from start of 2021 to end of 2021.

Once it releases I'm expecting a barrage of "FSD is TOTALLY USELESS .. ir disengaged TWICE when I was on my way to work!!!! .. I'm outraged" posts

More seriously, from what I've seen so far of the preview videos, Tesla may have a true breakthrough here. Sure, it won't be perfect, and we will be beta testing it for 2-3 years with lots of messy edge-cases, but I admire and applaud the tenacity and vision of the company. This *is* rocket science, and Tesla have dared to go where no car company has gone (Waymo aren't a car company). Think how dull life would be if Elon hadn't pushed the company down this path!

 

[Daniel in SD]

Disengagements will vary by condition, such as city driving, traffic congestion, and hell bent drivers. In other words the distance between disengagements will be much higher on a not so crowded limited access freeways. Suspect disengagement distance is less than 4 miles in crowded city. As you say, would be good to get a number that we can track. I'm sure some youtubers will provide some. Predict it will be 4x better from start of 2021 to end of 2021.

I'm a skeptic and I'm way more optimistic than that. I predict it will be 100x better by the end of 2021.

 

[DanCar]

California regulations: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/uploads/2020/06/Adopted-Regulatory-Text-2019-1.pdf
Way out for tesla not requiring reporting: regulations say when operated by a safety driver, which is a contractor or employee of the company. Tesla isn't employing safety drivers.

(o) “Testing” means the operation of an autonomous vehicle on public roads by employees, contractors, or designees of a manufacturer for the purpose of assessing, demonstrating, and validating the autonomous technology's capabilities.

 

[Daniel in SD]

California regulations: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/uploads/2020/06/Adopted-Regulatory-Text-2019-1.pdf
Way out for tesla not requiring reporting: regulations say when operated by a safety driver, which is a contractor or employee of the company. Tesla isn't employing safety drivers.

Haha. probably not.

The presence of a natural person who is an employee, contractor, or designee of the manufacturer in the vehicle to monitor a vehicle's autonomous performance shall not affect whether a vehicle meets the definition of autonomous test vehicle.

The way out is that they will claim that it is a Level 2 vehicle. The DMV could decide otherwise (as they did in the case of Uber).

“In their minds, they really thought they weren’t autonomous,” Jessica Gonzalez, assistant deputy director of public affairs at the DMV, told The Verge. “But we decide what’s autonomous. And under our regulations, it was.”

Uber dismissed warnings about its illegal self-driving test for months, emails show
In the end it will probably depend on how well people monitor the system. Tesla probably has a lot of sway in the state so that should help them.

 

[dhanson865]

A decent daylight video, you can see the car trying to dive right a couple of times but no disengagements. Worst part of the video is the audio.

 

[slee29]

Smart Summon on the new FSD Beta.

Wow. I'm not impressed with smart summon in the rewrite. Continues to be unusable IMO.

 

[dhanson865]

FSD stopping for a pedestrian that comes out of nowhere.

 

[dhanson865]

A decent daylight video, you can see the car trying to dive right a couple of times but no disengagements. Worst part of the video is the audio.

Time lapse version if you want to watch it in fast forward.

 

[DelPhonic1]

Awesome software. Can't wait til they get to the speed demons down towards the bottom of the list.

 

[diplomat33]

Check out the differences between Cruise's intersection view and Tesla's intersection view:

Cruise's bird's eye view:

Tesla's bird's eye view:

Here is the source where I got it from:

Lots of good info about how Cruise's FSD handles situations.

 

[Buckminster]

Check out the differences between Cruise's intersection view and Tesla's intersection view:

Cruise's bird's eye view:

Tesla's bird's eye view:

Here is the source where I got it from:

Lots of good info about how Cruise's FSD handles situations.

Tesla system looks like Pacman which is obvs better:

 

[Daniel in SD]

Lots of good info about how Cruise's FSD handles situations.

Very interesting. At about 3:00 there is an example of where the vehicle calls a remote assistant. Seemed pretty seamless. They're probably doing that whenever the vehicle needs to go into oncoming traffic. He says it happens once every 5-10 miles right now.

 

[drtimhill]

I have to say some of these youtubers act like they've never heard of autonomous driving before in their life. I mean, they act all crazy impressed that the Tesla could even make a right turn or that the Tesla could read the traffic light, wait for the incoming traffic to clear before making an unprotected left turn or creep forward to see around a corner. This is all just good driving policy that any autonomous car worth its salt needs to have. It is how an autonomous car is supposed to act.

While I agree, actually seeing the car doing it, even on video, is very impressive. There is really quite a wow factor here (for the time being).