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Well if you just start making stuff up, what’s the point?

it's not about making stuff up, it's about being pragmatic. Let's say, for argument sake, that Tesla delivers L4 by Q2 2020. Are you going to totally dismiss that accomplishment just because it falls short of what Musk promised? Or are you going to be happy for what you got? At the end of the day, what really matters is what we actually get in our cars.
 
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it's not about making stuff up, it's about being pragmatic. Let's say, for argument sake, that Tesla delivers L4 by Q2 2020. Are you going to totally dismiss that accomplishment just because it falls short of what Musk promised? Or are you going to be happy for what you got? At the end of the day, what really matters is what we actually get in our cars.

If Tesla delivers Level 4 by Q2/2020 and Level 5 by Q2/2021 I would accept that, of course, as long as they are Level 5 feature complete internally around that first milestone. Quite reasonable given they indicated two years before the steeringwheel-less Model 3 starts shipping, wouldn’t you say?

After all, Tesla Network details are already 2 years late. It is quite reasonable to hold them somewhat to the announced schedule now.
 
Here's a thought while I wait for the earnings (or lack thereof) report. If there is a condition that causes an FSD Tesla to not be level 5, Tesla will then know about that condition and be able to integrate it into the NN/ software (after some length of time).
Like the robots in Incredibles.

And ya'll are right, based on the 2016 L5 comment, you expected L5. I was thinking only of this weeks comment. my bad.
 
Here's a thought while I wait for the earnings (or lack thereof) report. If there is a condition that causes an FSD Tesla to not be level 5, Tesla will then know about that condition and be able to integrate it into the NN/ software (after some length of time).
Like the robots in Incredibles.

And ya'll are right, based on the 2016 L5 comment, you expected L5. I was thinking only of this weeks comment. my bad.

I think Elon is like Maui from Moana. He still thinks he's Hero of Men but instead people blame him for spreading darkness. Or as Lin wrote, he is "worried about his look"
 
Well, yeah, that is L5. Frankly, I thought Elon's comments about replacing the steering wheel with a cap were totally stupid. I guess I just tune out the L5 stuff because I know it is not realistic. I focus more on the stuff that can actually happen. I often talk about L4 because that is my personal goal for "FSD". Basically, in my mind, I replace Musk's promises with my own expectations.

L5 is you can sleep in the car anywhere you want to. L4 is you can sleep in the car where only the car says you could. Nobody other than Tesla is even having L5 as the goal at this point.
 
L5 is you can sleep in the car anywhere you want to. L4 is you can sleep in the car where only the car says you could. Nobody other than Tesla is even having L5 as the goal at this point.
For my own mental model...

Isn't L5 limited to "normal/legal driving locations"? For example, L5 doesn't promise you can do FSD donuts on an aircraft carrier... does it?

Edit: Ugh. Now I want to have some donuts in a lawn chair on an aircraft carrier, while my car circles me doing donuts. Anybody have a friend that can hook me up?
 
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Tesla is a public company and Musk is CEO. Him repeatedly missing deadlines that he implemented is not a good look at all.

A lot better than VW/Audi/Porsche and many others. No?

For my own model...

Isn't L5 limited to "normal/legal driving locations"? For example, L5 doesn't promise you can do FSD donuts on an aircraft carrier... does it?

Edit: Ugh. Now I want to have some donuts in a lawn chair on an aircraft carrier, while my car circles me doing donuts. Anybody have a friend that can hook me up?

The difference between the two is operable anywhere (L5) or operable only in selected roads/areas(L4). Elon when asked about other companies' geofenced approach answered geofenced car is not self driving car. He equals self driving as level 5. Tesla is the only company with L5 as the goal.

Path to Autonomy: Self-Driving Car Levels 0 to 5 Explained | Feature | Car and Driver
 
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Elon has never, ever said Level 4. Nobody at Tesla has ever said Level 4, that I recall of a presentation, press release or the like.

Elon said Level 5 on October 19th, 2016 and Elon said Level 5 April 22nd, 2019 at the respective AP2/AP3 launches.

Anything else is just dishonest now. Let’s drop the Level 4 pretense. Tesla’s CEO has sold us a Level 5 system.

Level 5 is steering wheel optional. Elon even explained how they’d put a cap in place of the steering wheel as a retrofit to Teslas sold today if the customer wants that. That is Level 5. That is not Level 4.

Tesla must now deliver Level 5 on the suite sold today. In a year or so.

Its amazing how dishonest these tesla fans are. you should be able to be a 100% fan of something and still be honest.
They literally flip flop every post and completely avoid things that poke hole in their argument.

I have pointed out the fact that Elon has been saying Level 5 for years and he made it clear in the Autonomy Day event, yet they want to side step it. Its ridiculous. This is the definition of bad faith. After saying its "yes, Level Five" then later on He literally said "If you need a geo fenced area, you don't have real self driving."
 
On the conference call just now, Elon said that Tesla will release the first true FSD features, different from EAP, in about 2-3 months. And yes, I know that Elon promised divergence between EAP and FSD a long time ago. But in light of the Autonomy Investor Day, I think 2-3 months from now is realistic. So factor in "Elon time" of course, but it is a good sign IMO. He also added that you will only need the AP3 computer upgrade at that point when the FSD features are released because the AP3 computer does not make a substantial difference on the existing autopilot.
 
Just a reminder:

Level 0: This one is pretty basic. The driver (human) controls it all: steering, brakes, throttle, power. It's what you've been doing all along.

Level 1: This driver-assistance level means that most functions are still controlled by the driver, but a specific function (like steering or accelerating) can be done automatically by the car.

Level 2: In level 2, at least one driver assistance system of "both steering and acceleration/ deceleration using information about the driving environment" is automated, like cruise control and lane-centering. It means that the "driver is disengaged from physically operating the vehicle by having his or her hands off the steering wheel AND foot off pedal at the same time," according to the SAE. The driver must still always be ready to take control of the vehicle, however.

Level 3: Drivers are still necessary in level 3 cars, but are able to completely shift "safety-critical functions" to the vehicle, under certain traffic or environmental conditions. It means that the driver is still present and will intervene if necessary, but is not required to monitor the situation in the same way it does for the previous levels. Jim McBride, autonomous vehicles expert at Ford, said this is "the biggest demarcation is between Levels 3 and 4." He's focused on getting Ford straight to Level 4, since Level 3, which involves transferring control from car to human, can often pose difficulties. "We're not going to ask the driver to instantaneously intervene—that's not a fair proposition," McBride said.

Level 4: This is what is meant by "fully autonomous." Level 4 vehicles are "designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip." However, it's important to note that this is limited to the "operational design domain (ODD)" of the vehicle—meaning it does not cover every driving scenario.

Level 5: This refers to a fully-autonomous system that expects the vehicle's performance to equal that of a human driver, in every driving scenario—including extreme environments like dirt roads that are unlikely to be navigated by driverless vehicles in the near future.

Please note that it doesn't mention steering wheel removal anywhere. That's an arbitrary option, albeit one that could only happen with L5 unless the car wouldn't be allowed to operate outside of regular road driving conditions.

Considering that Tesla is relying on vision for a generalised format of approaching autonomy, compared to others specific planned autonomy (GPS, Maps, Lidar etc) they appear to be the only company whose software has a chance at equalling a human driver in every driving scenario, including off-road. I believe Bjorn has unwittingly already been training the Neural Net about offroading ;)

If they want to expedite that aspect, then I expect they could give a bunch of cars to green-laners and just run those drives through Shadow Mode and then the Dojo. The point is that every weird driving scenario is probably going to be done by an owner somewhere, and every time it is done, the NN becomes more able to "equal that of a human driver, in every driving scenario".

Do I think Elon's time-scales are a bit out? Yeah. I think we'll see L4 in on-road urban and highway USA environments by his date. L5 will take longer but only because of the time needed to gather the data for those other non-ordinary environments. This will be much sped up by the delivery of Model Y and the Pickup which are more likely to be used in alternative environments for soft-roading and off-roading.

But please remember linear vs exponential. Every car delivered, every Dojo super-speed simulation, every Shadow Mode test, cumulatively increases the ability, and I fully expect L5 to appear much sooner than the average person expects (which was 55% voted for 2023 according to a poll done by Hyperchange).

And the differences between L4 and L5? To the average driver who uses their car for 'social, domestic, commute and pleasure'? They're not going to see it.
 
@Lasairfion SAE does mention steering wheel and it is widely accepted that Level 5 is when that can come off, it is the whole hands off (Level 2), eyes off (Level 3), mind off (Level 4), steering wheel off (Level 5) mantra after all, though that part is unofficial of course. :) SAE does mention it may be removed for specific applications on Level 4, but what Tesla here is picturing a Model 3 being sold without any steering wheel as a consumer car and that can obviously be only Level 5.

What the Tesla narrative completely misses abour Lidar and HD maps though (another surprise from Elon that people using HD maps are doomed like those using Lidar) is that they are not something to be relied on but something to provide you with an additional layer of redundancy.

It is more obvious by the day that Tesla is aiming for the easiest way of producting a self-driving car and as something becomes too costly or too difficult (like relying on radar in the winter or the more complex NoA they had prior to the current one — that we assumed used HD maps), Elon just discards it and goes for the path of least resistance. Redundancy is hard so he goes for vision only, even on record saying so about their own forward radar, and forgets about using HD maps. Sensor and data fusion IS hard, of that I have no doubt. But the layer of sanity checking and double checking it can offer for safety can and likely will mean ”orders of magnitude” safer autonomous vehicles (and driver’s aids).

Because the thing about HD maps (constantly updated through the fleet of course like MobilEye EyeQ4) or 360 degree radar of 360 degree Lidar, when done right, is not that they limit you anywhere. It is that they provide the car with a second or third opinion when they are available. Say your vision gets blocked or severely diminished and you need to navigate to a safe space. Having secondary sensors and HD maps certainly help plotting a better course than basically nothing but a memory of what you last saw.

As with any redundant system, it needs the weigh every piece of data and come to the best possible conclusion. With a non-redundant system, you only have one possible conclusion, but that conclusion may be worse than a redundant system would have made. The latter makes for an easier system to implement, which is why I wager it is so inviting to Elon, but how safe it ends up being remains to be seen.

That said, what concerns me more at this time is not redundancy but Tesla getting their vision reliability and versatility on par with MobilEye. Their biggest issue at the moment is unreliable vision, not lack of redundancy... but looking forward redundancy may matter too as this, the Model 3 sold today, is the suite and fleet Tesla aims to start using to Tesla Network as the leases end.
 
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