Serious advances in production capacity and $/kWh to let the CT compete with ICE trucks; and enough incremental increase in battery longevity to support the Tesla Semi. Tesla has been battery production constrained for a long time. Opening that bottleneck would be awesome, since it would unleash Tesla Energy in addition to upcoming Tesla vehicles. I'm looking forward to seeing Tesla use its cash to build out GF1 and start churning out Tera-level battery factories with their Maxwell tech.
The point is there's no limitations on what you can do with a Tesla either. You just have to have the right know-how and the will to do it. you change over your Corvette you've ruined any type of warranty that you had left on it, you change over a Tesla you've ruined any kind of warranty you've had left over it. I think the bigger point of the picture is just because you don't know how to upgrade a Tesla, doesn't mean it is impossible.
Yes, and one would think the stock price is indicative of Tesla further articulating the path towards becoming an energy storage/arbitrage company, commoditizing the IoT. For those that are already closely following Tesla’s march towards multi-industry disruption, we may be disappointed. But I’ll forget about that if they just release details about a new S.
Heh, sick but fair burn on Musk. I basically said the same thing in my local group: Model Y SR was killed because of their struggle with profits on the 3 SR, not because the range is unacceptable. Tesla? Being a leader on reasonable repair? I don't normally like to absurdly point out things like this, but we aren't talking about the same company. In practice, they're always against repair. When it comes down to it, the actual total cost to owners will make module swapping effectively pointless. The industry as a whole doesn't really do in-place repair anymore: replacement with refurbished assemblies is cheaper, faster, and still allows for repair to actually occur (it's just that your old assembly is refurbished and given/sold to someone else). For this reason I can see Tesla offering refurbished packs, but not necessarily a guts swap on your own pack. This might not be the "good ol' days" of fixes at your local mechanic, but the fixes do still occur. In the refurbished units that are bought instead. Tesla is ramping up capacity because they must to accomplish their long-term goals (and no doubt, more details about this ramp-up will be part of battery day). Tesla isn't just the consumer vehicles they have now: publicly coming up, you've got Semi (huge capacity per vehicle), Cybertruck (relatively large capacity per vehicle, but also a mass consumer market target), more home supply (e.g. Powerwall), way more grid installations (e.g. Megapacks, huge amount of battery storage), and this list will only grow. It looks like they will be constrained on battery supply for even a decade more despite trying to build out so much of their own manufacturing capacity. They have so many plans to use all that supply, only a small fraction of which are being built today. This is the type of thing battery day should really be clearing up, and it probably will to some extent.
Ehhh no on the warranty thing. That's where the difference is. If you use genuine Chevy parts for example and have the work done at a licensed dealership it will not and cannot void the warranty. Whereas Tesla has outright blocked and refused swapping parts in software in many cases
Does not make sense for Tesla to offer "up-gradable" battery. Think about it, a 10 year old EV is still worth something on the used market. Solution is to sell it to someone who would be OK with the remaining range and buy a new/used replacement EV with acceptable range. The market for used Tesla cars is particularly strong, much stronger than any other EV, mostly because Tesla has kept the software/firmware up to date, so a used car can still operate almost as good as a new one. We bought our Tesla S used and it still feels like a new Tesla, and people who sit in it cannot tell it's nearly 8 years old, the infotainment is typically better than brand new 2020 cars.
I certainly agree with your conclusion but not because the car still has value. Tesla knows that by the time they factor in the labor and costs of a tiny volume enterprise the battery is too expensive to be an attractive consumer item. The LEAF owing population with degraded batteries is running into this. Nissan has priced a replacement battery at ~ $8,000 installed, but the car is worth ~ $3,000. Not surprisingly only a handful of people have bought the replacement. Lest anyone think that the Tesla replacement battery would also cost $8,000, they should remember that the Nissan pack is a whopping 24 kWh. Yeah...
- I foresee them possibly having finally reached the inflection point of $100/kWh to reach parity with ICE and discussing this in relation to making their cars more affordable, then possibly mention of the model 2 in the works as a base example of a sub 30k (maybe 20k?) affordability target. - Car building method updates (single stamping, etc) - I think battery improvements will be two-fold. One with modest improvements to their current batteries and available now/soon, and then second will be more significant improvements using their battery breakthrough's and expectations of when that will be mass production in the future, all tied in to them producing the cells themselves as well in the future *at some date in the next year*. - Plaid powertrain reveal - Roadster, Semi and Cybertruck updates - V4 superchargers - other technological improvements and maybe how it all ties in to their solar power ecosystem
It doesn't need changes for Cybertruck, but I'm guessing they'll be something huge like 200kWh for the tri-motor. Even if V3 can do 250kW peak, I don't know if they were designed to sustain that for as long as a 200kWh pack could draw it, and it would certainly be slower overall (in time) than charging any other model. It's also possible they pull a Porsche move and make the Cybertruck an 800V pack instead of 400V, which I'm pretty sure would require different chargers altogether. That's the fun thing about speculation!
Tri-motor plaid mode model 3 with new vehicle casting technology and a heat pump. And 600 miles of range. ... or im not impressed
CT potentially for one. Remember "350 kW" is akin to a “children’s toy" per Elon 4 years ago. I'm not saying V4 is now, but I'm sure it will be discussed. I don't think he made that comment in vein. We need faster charging than V3, it's just a matter of when not if.
It sounds like we may see a major announcement regarding 12V battery reliability (which has historically been the Achilles heel of Tesla's battery management tech).
I'm kinda curious about how the cybertruck would charge on v3 charger myself. From what I can tell a v3 pedestal is only rated at 175kW continuous which is likely fine for current vehicles unable to stay much over that for very long but I have to assume the cybertruck would be able to pull 250kW for quite a while, especially the tri motor version.
And the something extra...drive in the Cybertruck towing the new Cybertrailer (as shown in the Cybertruck web page)...and then the Model 2 prototype drives out of the Cybertrailer.
Here's my prioritized list starting with most likely. 1. LFP and million miles life cycle 2. Watts/kg chart on energy density 3. $/kWh chart at the pack level 4. Discharge/Charge rate graph 5. Updated batteries and pack for Plaid model S and Nurburgring domination 6. Discuss dry electrodes and how it moves the charts 7. Discuss cell manufacturing automation and how to make a terrawatt of batteries in 2025 8. Discuss closed loop battery cell and pack recycling 9. Discuss BMS, inverter and motor efficiencies chart 10. Discuss thermal management of entire drivetrain
I would be interested getting addition information regarding the Semi charging plug and Semi Superchargers Stalls power and locations? The new V3 Superchargers use a 1 MW AC/DC converter connected to 4 stalls. I wonder if each Semi Superchargers Stalls will have each their own 1 MV AC/DC converter?
Maybe we will hear that Tesla is purchasing it's own Lithium mine I expect to hear in 3 to 5 years we may have a million mile battery