TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
  1. TMC is currently READ ONLY.
    Click here for more info.

Battery Day expectations

Discussion in 'Supercharging & Charging Infrastructure' started by SergeyUser, Aug 31, 2020.

  1. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    12,062
    Location:
    New Mexico
    #41 SageBrush, Sep 1, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2020
    Serious advances in production capacity and $/kWh to let the CT compete with ICE trucks; and enough incremental increase in battery longevity to support the Tesla Semi.

    Tesla has been battery production constrained for a long time. Opening that bottleneck would be awesome, since it would unleash Tesla Energy in addition to upcoming Tesla vehicles.

    I'm looking forward to seeing Tesla use its cash to build out GF1 and start churning out Tera-level battery factories with their Maxwell tech.
     
    • Like x 1
  2. Sam1

    Sam1 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2019
    Messages:
    887
    Location:
    NV
    The point is there's no limitations on what you can do with a Tesla either. You just have to have the right know-how and the will to do it. you change over your Corvette you've ruined any type of warranty that you had left on it, you change over a Tesla you've ruined any kind of warranty you've had left over it. I think the bigger point of the picture is just because you don't know how to upgrade a Tesla, doesn't mean it is impossible.
     
  3. BlindPass

    BlindPass Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2020
    Messages:
    520
    Location:
    Florida
    Yes, and one would think the stock price is indicative of Tesla further articulating the path towards becoming an energy storage/arbitrage company, commoditizing the IoT. For those that are already closely following Tesla’s march towards multi-industry disruption, we may be disappointed. But I’ll forget about that if they just release details about a new S.
     
  4. camalaio

    camalaio Active Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2019
    Messages:
    1,483
    Location:
    Vernon, BC, Canada
    Heh, sick but fair burn on Musk. I basically said the same thing in my local group: Model Y SR was killed because of their struggle with profits on the 3 SR, not because the range is unacceptable.

    Tesla? Being a leader on reasonable repair? I don't normally like to absurdly point out things like this, but we aren't talking about the same company. In practice, they're always against repair. When it comes down to it, the actual total cost to owners will make module swapping effectively pointless. The industry as a whole doesn't really do in-place repair anymore: replacement with refurbished assemblies is cheaper, faster, and still allows for repair to actually occur (it's just that your old assembly is refurbished and given/sold to someone else). For this reason I can see Tesla offering refurbished packs, but not necessarily a guts swap on your own pack. This might not be the "good ol' days" of fixes at your local mechanic, but the fixes do still occur. In the refurbished units that are bought instead.

    Tesla is ramping up capacity because they must to accomplish their long-term goals (and no doubt, more details about this ramp-up will be part of battery day). Tesla isn't just the consumer vehicles they have now: publicly coming up, you've got Semi (huge capacity per vehicle), Cybertruck (relatively large capacity per vehicle, but also a mass consumer market target), more home supply (e.g. Powerwall), way more grid installations (e.g. Megapacks, huge amount of battery storage), and this list will only grow.

    It looks like they will be constrained on battery supply for even a decade more despite trying to build out so much of their own manufacturing capacity. They have so many plans to use all that supply, only a small fraction of which are being built today. This is the type of thing battery day should really be clearing up, and it probably will to some extent.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Love x 1
  5. CMoZ

    CMoZ Member

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2019
    Messages:
    254
    Location:
    BC

    Ehhh no on the warranty thing. That's where the difference is. If you use genuine Chevy parts for example and have the work done at a licensed dealership it will not and cannot void the warranty. Whereas Tesla has outright blocked and refused swapping parts in software in many cases
     
  6. SmartElectric

    SmartElectric Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2014
    Messages:
    2,373
    Location:
    Toronto,Canada
    Does not make sense for Tesla to offer "up-gradable" battery.

    Think about it, a 10 year old EV is still worth something on the used market.
    Solution is to sell it to someone who would be OK with the remaining range and buy a new/used replacement EV with acceptable range.

    The market for used Tesla cars is particularly strong, much stronger than any other EV, mostly because Tesla has kept the software/firmware up to date, so a used car can still operate almost as good as a new one. We bought our Tesla S used and it still feels like a new Tesla, and people who sit in it cannot tell it's nearly 8 years old, the infotainment is typically better than brand new 2020 cars.
     
    • Like x 3
  7. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    12,062
    Location:
    New Mexico
    I certainly agree with your conclusion but not because the car still has value.

    Tesla knows that by the time they factor in the labor and costs of a tiny volume enterprise the battery is too expensive to be an attractive consumer item.

    The LEAF owing population with degraded batteries is running into this. Nissan has priced a replacement battery at ~ $8,000 installed, but the car is worth ~ $3,000. Not surprisingly only a handful of people have bought the replacement. Lest anyone think that the Tesla replacement battery would also cost $8,000, they should remember that the Nissan pack is a whopping 24 kWh.

    Yeah...
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  8. MagnusMako

    MagnusMako Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2019
    Messages:
    705
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    - I foresee them possibly having finally reached the inflection point of $100/kWh to reach parity with ICE and discussing this in relation to making their cars more affordable, then possibly mention of the model 2 in the works as a base example of a sub 30k (maybe 20k?) affordability target.
    - Car building method updates (single stamping, etc)
    - I think battery improvements will be two-fold. One with modest improvements to their current batteries and available now/soon, and then second will be more significant improvements using their battery breakthrough's and expectations of when that will be mass production in the future, all tied in to them producing the cells themselves as well in the future *at some date in the next year*.
    - Plaid powertrain reveal
    - Roadster, Semi and Cybertruck updates
    - V4 superchargers
    - other technological improvements and maybe how it all ties in to their solar power ecosystem
     
    • Like x 5
  9. SergeyUser

    SergeyUser Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2017
    Messages:
    439
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    @MagnusMako, they just released V3 supercharger. Why would they need V4? Seems a bit premature.
     
    • Like x 1
  10. camalaio

    camalaio Active Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2019
    Messages:
    1,483
    Location:
    Vernon, BC, Canada
    Semi? Cybertruck?
     
  11. SergeyUser

    SergeyUser Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2017
    Messages:
    439
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    Megachargers I assume will be for Semi. For CT, why would it require changes for Supercharging?
     
  12. camalaio

    camalaio Active Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2019
    Messages:
    1,483
    Location:
    Vernon, BC, Canada
    It doesn't need changes for Cybertruck, but I'm guessing they'll be something huge like 200kWh for the tri-motor. Even if V3 can do 250kW peak, I don't know if they were designed to sustain that for as long as a 200kWh pack could draw it, and it would certainly be slower overall (in time) than charging any other model.

    It's also possible they pull a Porsche move and make the Cybertruck an 800V pack instead of 400V, which I'm pretty sure would require different chargers altogether. That's the fun thing about speculation!
     
  13. 1.21GW

    1.21GW Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2018
    Messages:
    730
    Location:
    Michigan
    Tri-motor plaid mode model 3 with new vehicle casting technology and a heat pump. And 600 miles of range.

    ... or im not impressed
     
    • Funny x 2
    • Like x 1
  14. MagnusMako

    MagnusMako Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2019
    Messages:
    705
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    CT potentially for one. Remember "350 kW" is akin to a “children’s toy" per Elon 4 years ago. I'm not saying V4 is now, but I'm sure it will be discussed. I don't think he made that comment in vein. We need faster charging than V3, it's just a matter of when not if.
     
  15. Daniel in SD

    Daniel in SD Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2018
    Messages:
    6,281
    Location:
    San Diego
    It sounds like we may see a major announcement regarding 12V battery reliability (which has historically been the Achilles heel of Tesla's battery management tech).
    Screen Shot 2020-09-15 at 7.17.12 PM.png
     
  16. SigNC

    SigNC Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2017
    Messages:
    1,461
    Location:
    NC
    I'm kinda curious about how the cybertruck would charge on v3 charger myself. From what I can tell a v3 pedestal is only rated at 175kW continuous which is likely fine for current vehicles unable to stay much over that for very long but I have to assume the cybertruck would be able to pull 250kW for quite a while, especially the tri motor version.
     
  17. boiler81

    boiler81 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2016
    Messages:
    711
    Location:
    Manson, WA
    And the something extra...drive in the Cybertruck towing the new Cybertrailer (as shown in the Cybertruck web page)...and then the Model 2 prototype drives out of the Cybertrailer.;)
     
  18. Discoducky

    Discoducky Happy owner of a P100D X and a brand new 2021 M3!

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,330
    Location:
    Seattle
    Here's my prioritized list starting with most likely.

    1. LFP and million miles life cycle
    2. Watts/kg chart on energy density
    3. $/kWh chart at the pack level
    4. Discharge/Charge rate graph
    5. Updated batteries and pack for Plaid model S and Nurburgring domination
    6. Discuss dry electrodes and how it moves the charts
    7. Discuss cell manufacturing automation and how to make a terrawatt of batteries in 2025
    8. Discuss closed loop battery cell and pack recycling
    9. Discuss BMS, inverter and motor efficiencies chart
    10. Discuss thermal management of entire drivetrain
     
    • Like x 2
  19. Watts_Up

    Watts_Up Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2019
    Messages:
    3,092
    Location:
    In a galaxy far, far away
    I would be interested getting addition information regarding the Semi charging plug and Semi Superchargers Stalls power and locations?
    [​IMG]
    The new V3 Superchargers use a 1 MW AC/DC converter connected to 4 stalls.
    I wonder if each Semi Superchargers Stalls will have each their own 1 MV AC/DC converter?

    [​IMG]
     
  20. ThomasD

    ThomasD Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2019
    Messages:
    827
    Location:
    florida
    Maybe we will hear that Tesla is purchasing it's own Lithium mine I expect to hear in 3 to 5 years we may have a million mile battery
     

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC