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Built in Austin? Look for the "A" in VIN digit 11

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You’re trying to have it both ways here. This German event is the celebration at the factory. If that is the first shipment day and you’re using that as an example of how they will announce Austin shipments? Then it’s April 7. Not in 1st quarter.
Tesla leadership said in last quarterly call they’d ship Q1. So, evidence is mixed bag.
The April 7th date is caused by the permit request to the city of Austin needing to be summitted something like 45 days prior to an event taking place. That's why Elon changed his tweet of 4/1 to 4/7 for the festival at the Austin Gigafactory. I'm not sure that's the same thing they are doing in Germany, where a domestic European-built MY would be a bigger deal than simply opening up another factory in the US. That's billed as a delivery event, vs the 'gigafest' the Austin thing is being billed as.

I'm actually kind of surprised that Elon didn't schedule the Austin event for 4/20.... :cool:
 
The April 7th date is caused by the permit request to the city of Austin needing to be summitted something like 45 days prior to an event taking place. That's why Elon changed his tweet of 4/1 to 4/7 for the festival at the Austin Gigafactory. I'm not sure that's the same thing they are doing in Germany, where a domestic European-built MY would be a bigger deal than simply opening up another factory in the US. That's billed as a delivery event, vs the 'gigafest' the Austin thing is being billed as.

I'm actually kind of surprised that Elon didn't schedule the Austin event for 4/20.... :cool:
Yeah, that pretty much was my point, that the nature of the event might be slightly different from the German one... but if not it doesn’t support his premise of meeting Q1 customer delivery promise.... and for reals on 4/20, what was Elon thinking? was he stoned?
 
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If you base the timeline on Berlin Gigafest to actual deliveries, there’s a ways to go. Deifferent scenario with government red tape holding up production but you never know what might happen in Austin. Gigafest might just be a party with deliveries to follow whenever certification allows. I agree that they will probably publicize the first deliveries with advance notice to increase the hype for investors.
 
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Most people with EDD window March 11-31 have not received their VINs including mine, so I am guessing either Tesla is trying to allocate those order to Austin. But, it is my "guess" based on no reporting of the VIN assignment and delivery so far.
 
Most people with EDD window March 11-31 have not received their VINs including mine, so I am guessing either Tesla is trying to allocate those order to Austin. But, it is my "guess" based on no reporting of the VIN assignment and delivery so far.

When you start to see colors other then black and blue in the parking lot of Austin you'll know they are getting ready. They may ship cars from Austin in March just to make good on the promise but chances are that no one take delivery until april.
 

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It’s not a customer car though. The hundreds of MY’s sitting outside the factory all have VINs. So this isn’t a shock. The big news is when a VIN is actually assigned to a customer, signaling deliveries will start and giving away which model(s) to expect.
Agreed these arent customer cars. Although part of me didn't trust the Y's just sitting out outside Austin. Who knows what build they are, where they actually came from, etc. At one there were even a bunch of other Teslas mixed in.. with the "spy" photographs coming out of Austin.

From what I'm aware this is the first time we've seen a legit Austin VIN. Also, pretty sure someone has already posted it here. But there was a post on Reddit that correctly predicted all of this about 20 days. The guy said there would be AWD with around 280 miles of range.. and went on to say the first 2500 would be employed only cars and that "You probably don't want one of those". So at this point, we really can't even get excited until we see VIN# A002501 or whatever.
 
Agreed these arent customer cars. Although part of me didn't trust the Y's just sitting out outside Austin. Who knows what build they are, where they actually came from, etc. At one there were even a bunch of other Teslas mixed in.. with the "spy" photographs coming out of Austin.

From what I'm aware this is the first time we've seen a legit Austin VIN. Also, pretty sure someone has already posted it here. But there was a post on Reddit that correctly predicted all of this about 20 days. The guy said there would be AWD with around 280 miles of range.. and went on to say the first 2500 would be employed only cars and that "You probably don't want one of those". So at this point, we really can't even get excited until we see VIN# A002501 or whatever.
If you look back on Reddit everything possible has been forecast at one point or another. And really that forecast makes little sense. they have a huge backlog they need to clear of vehicles ordered under current descriptions. Tying up Austin’s production with a new model doesn’t help solve that.
The 400-plus black and blue cars sitting outside the factory have always obviously been legit Austin builds. Dark paint was the startup mode at Berlin and it is the way things are done. Are they MYLR or some bizarre AWD variant? Who knows. They COULD in theory be MYP but that’s a ton of Gemini wheels to swap out. Photos of the inside, either through the windows or inside from production area, have consistently shown dark vehicles.
They’re most likely to be exactly what they look like, 4680 MYLRs. And now the VIN image on EPA website of MYLR Austin build.
But they could in theory be another build, sure.
The rest is not all that confusing, though there are several chapters.

So... those hundreds of black and blue cars are legit Austin made. They and their wheels are the most solid evidence we have to work with. Let’s start there.
Then we have the following:

1) a reputed insider’s buddy “leaked” a shot of several colors in an enclosed truck he swore was leaving the factory. Jury’s out. Now seems at least a little unlikely given the color array but could go either way. Not especially important.

2) A drone sweep of what now seems to be an employee parking area with pretty much nothing but Y’s and 3’s got people wound up a little. I must admit I want the one I the bright blue wrap that keeps popping up. But... it became clear they were employee cars I various colors driven a lot in dust etc. and were almost certainly freemont cars.

3) Jeff Roberts, the diligent drone operator, posted a still shot of multi-colored truckload he said was coming from the factory. I will buy that the truck stopped on factory grounds. Roberts is an honest source. But probably en route from Fremont somewhere else, or picking up cars used for some sort of training. Again, could have been Austin built, probably not. Not a particularly important thing either way.

4) Various drone shots of a supercharger setup at factory has shown several dark Y’s, likely Austin production topping off.

5) Austin shot of white car on a dolly off by itself outside. I think it was primer coat. Maybe I’m right, maybe not. But.. just one. Not complete. In process. Outside maybe about to be scraped. Meanwhile production of nothing else but black and blue continued.
 
If you look back on Reddit everything possible has been forecast at one point or another. And really that forecast makes little sense. they have a huge backlog they need to clear of vehicles ordered under current descriptions. Tying up Austin’s production with a new model doesn’t help solve that.
The 400-plus black and blue cars sitting outside the factory have always obviously been legit Austin builds. Dark paint was the startup mode at Berlin and it is the way things are done. Are they MYLR or some bizarre AWD variant? Who knows. They COULD in theory be MYP but that’s a ton of Gemini wheels to swap out. Photos of the inside, either through the windows or inside from production area, have consistently shown dark vehicles.
They’re most likely to be exactly what they look like, 4680 MYLRs. And now the VIN image on EPA website of MYLR Austin build.
But they could in theory be another build, sure.
The rest is not all that confusing, though there are several chapters.

So... those hundreds of black and blue cars are legit Austin made. They and their wheels are the most solid evidence we have to work with. Let’s start there.
Then we have the following:

1) a reputed insider’s buddy “leaked” a shot of several colors in an enclosed truck he swore was leaving the factory. Jury’s out. Now seems at least a little unlikely given the color array but could go either way. Not especially important.

2) A drone sweep of what now seems to be an employee parking area with pretty much nothing but Y’s and 3’s got people wound up a little. I must admit I want the one I the bright blue wrap that keeps popping up. But... it became clear they were employee cars I various colors driven a lot in dust etc. and were almost certainly freemont cars.

3) Jeff Roberts, the diligent drone operator, posted a still shot of multi-colored truckload he said was coming from the factory. I will buy that the truck stopped on factory grounds. Roberts is an honest source. But probably en route from Fremont somewhere else, or picking up cars used for some sort of training. Again, could have been Austin built, probably not. Not a particularly important thing either way.

4) Various drone shots of a supercharger setup at factory has shown several dark Y’s, likely Austin production topping off.

5) Austin shot of white car on a dolly off by itself outside. I think it was primer coat. Maybe I’m right, maybe not. But.. just one. Not complete. In process. Outside maybe about to be scraped. Meanwhile production of nothing else but black and blue continued.
Unless they are using the test cars with lower range to work out the kinks and offering them to employees instead of dealing with how to sell them to the public with only a 280 mile range and maybe only a limited amount available. Since they will be sold and driven on roads, they still have to get EPA certification. For the EPA certification, it seems they already have a range of AWD Model Y and just have different sub models with different ranges. If they software limit a LR AWD with 4680 to 330 miles then it wouldn't necessarily need to be recertified?

Two points come from this. Either they are software limited and contain a full set of 4680 cells, or there is something fishy going on with a car with 85% of the range but 99.4% of the weight. 4680 production is actually LFP at this point? Those LR LFP comments/questions were actually legit? There is definitely something funny going on with the cars themselves or the data reported in the EPA applications. Based on energy density, volts and capacities, something does not add up.
 
Unless they are using the test cars with lower range to work out the kinks and offering them to employees instead of dealing with how to sell them to the public with only a 280 mile range and maybe only a limited amount available. Since they will be sold and driven on roads, they still have to get EPA certification. For the EPA certification, it seems they already have a range of AWD Model Y and just have different sub models with different ranges. If they software limit a LR AWD with 4680 to 330 miles then it wouldn't necessarily need to be recertified?

Two points come from this. Either they are software limited and contain a full set of 4680 cells, or there is something fishy going on with a car with 85% of the range but 99.4% of the weight. 4680 production is actually LFP at this point? Those LR LFP comments/questions were actually legit? There is definitely something funny going on with the cars themselves or the data reported in the EPA applications. Based on energy density, volts and capacities, something does not add up.
The Bearded One’s yakking wasn’t more useful than the discussion here, generally. He did make a reasonable case, though, in terms of numbers that the 280-mile car was using the current batteries.
And there’s that other MY that was submitted to EPA later -- on what looked vaguely like more of an Austin timeline -- still hanging out there. That will almost certainly be the model we’re mainly interested in. 280 doesn’t cut it. Hyundais can do that now
 
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If the 279-mile range AWD has LFP batteries, it could be an excellent lower priced fun performing car, good for winter in the North. Remember that LFP batteries can be routinely charged to 100%, giving it out of the garage in the morning range about the same as my LR AWD charged to 85%. I rarely take road trips. The smaller battery pack will make the car lighter even with the less dense LFP batteries and will probably leave performance equal to the LR AWD. It sounds like an excellent money saver best produce in Fremont while the 4680s do the Austin structural battery pack LR Model Ys.
 
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If the 279-mile range AWD has LFP batteries, it could be an excellent lower priced fun performing car, good for winter in the North. Remember that LFP batteries can be routinely charged to 100%, giving it out of the garage in the morning range about the same as my LR AWD charged to 85%. I rarely take road trips. The smaller battery pack will make the car lighter even with the less dense LFP batteries and will probably leave performance equal to the LR AWD. It sounds like an excellent money saver best produce in Fremont while the 4680s do the Austin structural battery pack LR Model Ys.
Except the EPA filings explicitly say it is not an LFP. It is some variant on the current Y chemistry.
 
Maybe they left sentry mode on when they did the range test. Or ran the ac, listened to the radio, had to traverse a .00001% grade, used a driver who weighs more than 97 lbs…or any of the thousands of other things that makes the EPA “real world” range test complete BS.