Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[jjrandorin]

(moderator note)

This is a very active thread about "Giga Texas" that happens to be in the model Y subforum.

We received a report about some Cybertruck posts in this thread, asking they be moved to the proper subforum (which would technically be the cybertruck subforum). I am inclined to leave them here though since this is basically a giga texas thread, not a model Y one, and its active on the topic of giga texas.

 

[tangible1]

Q3 shutdown for upgrades and changes is the norm in the auto industry. One can theorize that it affects the Model Y also but to a much lesser extent since Model Y has already been switching to giga casts.

"been switching" ? MY switched to gigacasts very very early into production.
If I recall correctly, first MY shipments were in the fall of '20, and by spring of '21 they all had rear megacasts.
the conversion to F+R megacasts became dependent on 4680 production.
that production fell far short of projections and remains an issue, especially as CT production begins.
this hampers the MY production cost benefits of F+R megacasts and structural battery packs.

 

[DanCar]

Thanks I didn't know front gigacast was being held up by 4680 cell production.

4680 and gigacast model Ys - what is the latest?

I know tesla was selling the two-piece cast, 4680 model Ys on the down low for a while, is that still going on? Are the older battery pack Model Ys coming out of Austin still using the 2 piece giga casting chassis or are they exactly like the previous model Y?

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[tangible1]

Thanks I didn't know front gigacast was being held up by 4680 cell production.

4680 and gigacast model Ys - what is the latest?

I know tesla was selling the two-piece cast, 4680 model Ys on the down low for a while, is that still going on? Are the older battery pack Model Ys coming out of Austin still using the 2 piece giga casting chassis or are they exactly like the previous model Y?

teslamotorsclub.com

it costs Tesla much less in time and money to make a MY with F+R megacasts and structural battery pack than otherwise.
Profits given over for Panasonic 2170 cells and higher costs for the front end steel assembly, plus that takes more robots and time.
Tesla publicly estimated that the full megacast/structural pack MY chassis takes 35% fewer robots (of course, that's Elon-speak).

CT will consume a very large share of 4680 production going forward.
So MY costs will suffer as a result, but it will be more than made up by CT margins.

 

[A2be]

Since some Model 3s are being manufactured with the 4680 structural battery pack, how can one tell if they got that?

... or the older 2170 batteries and non-structural pack?

 

[MP3Mike]

Since some Model 3s are being manufactured with the 4680 structural battery pack,

No they aren't. Currently only the Model Y AWD is made with the 4680 pack.

 

[tangible1]

Since some Model 3s are being manufactured with the 4680 structural battery pack, how can one tell if they got that?

... or the older 2170 batteries and non-structural pack?

NO Model 3's are being assembled using 4680s, and NONE are planned.

I suspect the reveal of the Highland M3 will be catching the M3 construction process up to that of the MY.
There has been no info about 4680s in the M3 at all.
It MAY be a structural battery pack and F+R megacasts, but 4680 is unlikely given looming CT demand, as well as SEMI use.
I'd hazard it's a structural pack around the current batteries used in the M3 and MY - 2170s.

 

[A2be]

Since some Model 3s are being manufactured with the 4680 structural battery pack, how can one tell if they got that?

... or the older 2170 batteries and non-structural pack?

Whoops. That was a typo. Error on my part. Meant Model Y's. Do-over.

Since some Model Ys are being manufactured with the 4680 structural battery pack, how can one tell if they got that?

... or the older 2170 batteries and non-structural pack?

 

[MP3Mike]

Since some Model Ys are being manufactured with the 4680 structural battery pack, how can one tell if they got that?

If you order a AWD it comes with 4680s. If you order a Long Range or Performance it comes with 2170s.

 

[Mrbrock]

Whoops. That was a typo. Error on my part. Meant Model Y's. Do-over.

Since some Model Ys are being manufactured with the 4680 structural battery pack, how can one tell if they got that?

... or the older 2170 batteries and non-structural pack?

if your range is 279 miles when new, you have 4680. No LR or P use 4680.

 

[Mrbrock]

it costs Tesla much less in time and money to make a MY with F+R megacasts and structural battery pack than otherwise.
Profits given over for Panasonic 2170 cells and higher costs for the front end steel assembly, plus that takes more robots and time.
Tesla publicly estimated that the full megacast/structural pack MY chassis takes 35% fewer robots (of course, that's Elon-speak).

CT will consume a very large share of 4680 production going forward.
So MY costs will suffer as a result, but it will be more than made up by CT margins.

Based on current reports, the MY AWD pack could get an upgrade to 307 miles range with the new 10% higher capacity cells will start being produced in Texas. 68000/828=82wh+10%=90wh. Troy Teslike estimates 120kwh needed for 250 mile range on CT so that is 120000/90=1333 cells. They have produced 10mil 4680 in Texas but maybe we assume those or the 82wh cells and they will use those up in the MY AWD. But for giggles, 10mil cells is only 7500 CT. Only 5600 of the 300+ mile range 160kwh version per Troys estimates. If they want to do 100k CT per year, they will need to produce 3.4mil cells per month just for CT. I don’t think they are quite there yet but the CT ramp will be a bit slower we can assume so they will have some time to stockpile.

 

[tangible1]

Based on current reports, the MY AWD pack could get an upgrade to 307 miles range with the new 10% higher capacity cells will start being produced in Texas. 68000/828=82wh+10%=90wh. Troy Teslike estimates 120kwh needed for 250 mile range on CT so that is 120000/90=1333 cells. They have produced 10mil 4680 in Texas but maybe we assume those or the 82wh cells and they will use those up in the MY AWD. But for giggles, 10mil cells is only 7500 CT. Only 5600 of the 300+ mile range 160kwh version per Troys estimates. If they want to do 100k CT per year, they will need to produce 3.4mil cells per month just for CT. I don’t think they are quite there yet but the CT ramp will be a bit slower we can assume so they will have some time to stockpile.

Panasonic factory in Japan is online and making 4680. And Oklahoma (Arkansas?) is coming online next summer.
That will help the production requirements.
But Tesla is definitely not going to produce MY-AWD in quantity without more 4680s available, so the "10% energy density growth" rumor is kinda irrelevant for now.

 

[Mrbrock]

Panasonic factory in Japan is online and making 4680. And Oklahoma (Arkansas?) is coming online next summer.
That will help the production requirements.
But Tesla is definitely not going to produce MY-AWD in quantity without more 4680s available, so the "10% energy density growth" rumor is kinda irrelevant for now.

So Baglinos quarterly report is a rumor? If Texas is starting to produce 4680 with 10% more energy density than previous and Kato, then any future MY AWD produced will have 10% more energy in the battery because those are the batteries that will be available. Unless they are stockpiling old cells for MY or shipping old cells from Kato.

 

[tangible1]

So Baglinos quarterly report is a rumor? If Texas is starting to produce 4680 with 10% more energy density than previous and Kato, then any future MY AWD produced will have 10% more energy in the battery because those are the batteries that will be available. Unless they are stockpiling old cells for MY or shipping old cells from Kato.

Bagliano, like Elon, tends towards a bit of future-speak.
Not wrong but not .... now.
I'll wait for confirmation with products in peoples' hands.

And they're managing 4680 inventory in every way possible.
SEMI, CT will both consume major quantity - CT projected to need 2000 cells, SEMI much more than that.
The reputed 10 million cells manufactured won't go far feeding that demand.
MY at 900-ish cells will not be a priority. As Munro's recent CT summary stated, MY-AWD is kind of a Unicorn product right now. Not in abundance.

 

[bkp_duke]

So Baglinos quarterly report is a rumor? If Texas is starting to produce 4680 with 10% more energy density than previous and Kato, then any future MY AWD produced will have 10% more energy in the battery because those are the batteries that will be available. Unless they are stockpiling old cells for MY or shipping old cells from Kato.

Or, and more likely, they will use 10% fewer cells for the same range. Leaving 10% more cells to be put into something else.

 

[Mrbrock]

Or, and more likely, they will use 10% fewer cells for the same range. Leaving 10% more cells to be put into something else.

Which will require them to manufacture blank cells since the packs are structural. And less cells means less voltage, or they will have to come up with an entirely new wiring plan for the pack which means re-engineering it. In this case, there will be a range boost, just like 2170.

 

[bkp_duke]

Which will require them to manufacture blank cells since the packs are structural. And less cells means less voltage, or they will have to come up with an entirely new wiring plan for the pack which means re-engineering it. In this case, there will be a range boost, just like 2170.

No blank cells. Pack is just filled with additional structural foam, that is it. They already do this, as there is actually already room for nearly 100kwh of cells in the current structural pack, but space is left open, and they certainly do not put empty cans in it.


I suggest you go watch Munro's 4680 pack teardown before commenting further.

 

[Mrbrock]

How do they balance the voltage of the pack if they remove 80 cells? They’d need to remove them in quantities equal to the voltage groupings. Or am I missing something on the electrical engineering side? 100x 3.7V cells gets you 370 volts. Removing 10% of the cells drops 10% of the volts. So unless the 10% reduction happens to equal the grouping of cells at a particular voltage then that works.

For 2170 cars, this is how you went from SR to LR, added another series of cells.

And I apologize for forgetting about the foam.

 

[bkp_duke]

Yes, they are removed in groups, in this case a string of (don't remember the number, but there are pretty pics from GF TX with them). The motors work just fine in a moderate voltage range, they don't have to be locked in at a precise voltage, which is going to vary as the pack discharges as well.

Look at pack voltage disparities in the different pack sizes for the S/X over the years. IIRC nearly a 50V range there over the different sizes. The P version cars have always had higher nominal voltages.

 

[Mrbrock]

Yes, they are removed in groups, in this case a string of (don't remember the number, but there are pretty pics from GF TX with them). The motors work just fine in a moderate voltage range, they don't have to be locked in at a precise voltage, which is going to vary as the pack discharges as well.

Look at pack voltage disparities in the different pack sizes for the S/X over the years. IIRC nearly a 50V range there over the different sizes. The P version cars have always had higher nominal voltages.

Yes, understand all that. The magic number you are looking for is 69 for the “bandoliers” however that is only 255V which is low so I am not sure what voodoo is going on with wiring to get to 350-400V for the whole pack. There are 12 bandoliers so removing 1 would be an 8% reduction in Paul capacity if that doesn’t mess up the voltage. But it would be unbalanced weight wise unless they shifted everything around inside which like posited before, is re-engineering the pack.

And while Panasonic has a pilot line running, they are delaying volume production to 1H FY25 to make better cells so they aren’t currently supplying any to Giga Texas. So thats at earliest April 2024 to start the ramp for Panasonic.