Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[bkp_duke]

Yes, understand all that. The magic number you are looking for is 69 for the “bandoliers” however that is only 255V which is low so I am not sure what voodoo is going on with wiring to get to 350-400V for the whole pack. There are 12 bandoliers so removing 1 would be an 8% reduction in Paul capacity if that doesn’t mess up the voltage. But it would be unbalanced weight wise unless they shifted everything around inside which like posited before, is re-engineering the pack.

And while Panasonic has a pilot line running, they are delaying volume production to 1H FY25 to make better cells so they aren’t currently supplying any to Giga Texas. So thats at earliest April 2024 to start the ramp for Panasonic.

You do realize that there is space in the current 4680 pack for 2-3 more bandoliers? See Munro's teardown.

You simply re-center the cells you have, problem solved. There is nothing in the structure that would prevent this.




Back to my MAIN POINT - Elon has made it CRYSTAL CLEAR on many occasions that if given the choice between longer range, and using cells to make more cars but keep range constant, they will chose keeping range constant and building more cars.

 

[jsight]

Back to my MAIN POINT - Elon has made it CRYSTAL CLEAR on many occasions that if given the choice between longer range, and using cells to make more cars but keep range constant, they will chose keeping range constant and building more cars.

Yeah, I've noticed that trend too. TBH, I really expected competitors to make that difficult, but it hasn't happened so far.

 

[bkp_duke]

Yeah, I've noticed that trend too. TBH, I really expected competitors to make that difficult, but it hasn't happened so far.

They can't make it difficult. There is a battery cell shortage, effectively. So while you have a niche players like Lucid that are pumping 500-mile range cars, they really aren't making that many of them, compared to the hundreds of thousands (soon to be millions) of Model Y's being cranked out. Plus, the Lucid is just stupid expensive, even compared to an S Plaid.

 

[tangible1]

They can't make it difficult. There is a battery cell shortage, effectively. So while you have a niche players like Lucid that are pumping 500-mile range cars, they really aren't making that many of them, compared to the hundreds of thousands (soon to be millions) of Model Y's being cranked out. Plus, the Lucid is just stupid expensive, even compared to an S Plaid.

resource limitations are going to constrain any credible competition except the Chinese brands.

note that GM just raised the Bolt EV from the dead; they can't make anything else any time soon so they resurrected that fireship.

 

[Mrbrock]

I would agree if it meant adding cells to add range. Here we are talking about a slight increase based on better cell chemistry. They don’t have to change anything when it comes to pack manufacturing. And following your line of thought, why did LR MY go from 78kwh to 82 kWh and range increased? I agree that they aren’t going to cram in more cells to get more range but here this increase would be free from any increase in cells or pack manufacturing cost. And while breakdowns show open spots, that doesn’t mean from an engineering standpoint that those can’t just be filled Willy nilly. There may be a reason they were left empty that may be more than just financial. There is a reason they put out a car that was very disappointing. Range, cost, everything. Totally underwhelming. Why would you do that if there weren’t limitations that were more than just financial?

 

[advocate8]

I would agree if it meant adding cells to add range. Here we are talking about a slight increase based on better cell chemistry. They don’t have to change anything when it comes to pack manufacturing. And following your line of thought, why did LR MY go from 78kwh to 82 kWh and range increased? I agree that they aren’t going to cram in more cells to get more range but here this increase would be free from any increase in cells or pack manufacturing cost. And while breakdowns show open spots, that doesn’t mean from an engineering standpoint that those can’t just be filled Willy nilly. There may be a reason they were left empty that may be more than just financial. There is a reason they put out a car that was very disappointing. Range, cost, everything. Totally underwhelming. Why would you do that if there weren’t limitations that were more than just financial?

Yes to all that. also....The gaps may be related to cooling ...if so adding cells in those spots is not likely.

 

[Mrbrock]

Yes to all that. also....The gaps may be related to cooling ...if so adding cells in those spots is not likely.

Exactly. There's not a good answer to "why don't they add more" unless there is some other limiting factor on the engineering side. If they could have made a 330 mile 4680 MY, they would have. Why have to create a 2170 "structural pack" including having to ship the cells/packs from Reno) so they can make LR in Texas without having to have separate parts from the 4680 AWD MY? Talk about inefficiency.

 

[advocate8]

Exactly. There's not a good answer to "why don't they add more" unless there is some other limiting factor on the engineering side. If they could have made a 330 mile 4680 MY, they would have. Why have to create a 2170 "structural pack" including having to ship the cells/packs from Reno) so they can make LR in Texas without having to have separate parts from the 4680 AWD MY? Talk about inefficiency.

Remain thoroughly unimpressed with 4680, except as regards company profits/ stock price

 

[jsight]

Remain thoroughly unimpressed with 4680, except as regards company profits/ stock price

A few thousand dollars less isn't a bad deal, tbh. It is part of what keeps the MY ahead of things like the Blazer.

 

[tangible1]

A few thousand dollars less isn't a bad deal, tbh. It is part of what keeps the MY ahead of things like the Blazer.

there IS NO Blazer. or anything else from GM except the Bolt

 

[KJD]

there IS NO Blazer. or anything else from GM except the Bolt

Now, the 2024 Chevy Blazer EV is officially rolling off the line at the GM Ramos Arizpe plant in Mexico.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/06/2024-chevy-blazer-ev-production-under-way-in-mexico/

Looks to me they are trying to get it here pretty soon. It might get here before CT deliveries.

 

[tangible1]

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/06/2024-chevy-blazer-ev-production-under-way-in-mexico/

Looks to me they are trying to get it here pretty soon. It might get here before CT deliveries.

that would not be a good bet.
I'd wait for actual customer reports beyond the onesies twosies that will be hyped online by blogs.

 

[Mrbrock]

And pricing is officially out today, RWD RS with more range is more expensive than AWD RS. Head scratcher if it uses the same battery and just removes a motor.

that would not be a good bet.
I'd wait for actual customer reports beyond the onesies twosies that will be hyped online by blogs.

GM has reported they are shipping them from Mexico to dealers. Be interesting to see if they are demos or actually for sale.

GM starts shipping Chevy Blazer EV, reveals price and range

GM is shipping its next Ultium-based EV, the Blazer EV with a starting price topping estimates. And GM pushes back launch of the sports version.

www.freep.com

And $56k+ for base with AWD is $9k more than MY AWD (same EPA range), $6k more than LR MY AWD. Hard to compete even if real world range is better than Tesla. $9k for the "comfort" of a legacy automaker?

 

[jsight]

there IS NO Blazer. or anything else from GM except the Bolt

The lyriq has been shipping. A few have appeared in inventory at times. Supposedly the Blazer is shipping now too, but the pricing is a mess. I'm sure quantities will be modest, but still at least hundreds.

 

[tangible1]

The lyriq has been shipping. A few have appeared in inventory at times. Supposedly the Blazer is shipping now too, but the pricing is a mess. I'm sure quantities will be modest, but still at least hundreds.

is there anyone left who really wants to bet on a first iteration EV from a Legacy company?
the early adopter market is already in; those who've been sitting on their hands might be tempted but will they risk a new, untested entity from Ford, GM, etc?
We'll see.
Ford is saying they're seeing a slowdown in interest.....

 

[jsight]

is there anyone left who really wants to bet on a first iteration EV from a Legacy company?

I hope so. The Lyriq is already on the market and has a terrible charge curve. Betting against such a person would be highly profitable.

More seriously, I'd be willing to risk it in the right circumstances. The Lyriq charge curve is bad, but its range is good. In some ways, it'd be more convenient for me than the Y, as I operate near the edge of the Y's range more often than going on longer road trips.

If the Blazer ends up doing well on real world range tests, I can see it being appealing at the right price.

 

[tangible1]

I hope so. The Lyriq is already on the market and has a terrible charge curve. Betting against such a person would be highly profitable.

More seriously, I'd be willing to risk it in the right circumstances. The Lyriq charge curve is bad, but its range is good. In some ways, it'd be more convenient for me than the Y, as I operate near the edge of the Y's range more often than going on longer road trips.

If the Blazer ends up doing well on real world range tests, I can see it being appealing at the right price.

everything has it's price, for each User and Use Case.
only you can be that judge.

 

[Mrbrock]

I hope so. The Lyriq is already on the market and has a terrible charge curve. Betting against such a person would be highly profitable.

More seriously, I'd be willing to risk it in the right circumstances. The Lyriq charge curve is bad, but its range is good. In some ways, it'd be more convenient for me than the Y, as I operate near the edge of the Y's range more often than going on longer road trips.

If the Blazer ends up doing well on real world range tests, I can see it being appealing at the right price.

And that price is significantly more than Tesla. Is the extra range worth the price ($62k for the longest range Blazer) over the LR MY at $50+k? $11k for 50 or so miles with worse charging infrastructure for the next year or two?

 

[jsight]

And that price is significantly more than Tesla. Is the extra range worth the price ($62k for the longest range Blazer) over the LR MY at $50+k? $11k for 50 or so miles with worse charging infrastructure for the next year or two?

For me, definitely not. But a 2LT with supercruise for <$60k would be competitive for some. Actual hands free interstate driving could be a big perk for some.

 

[tangible1]

For me, definitely not. But a 2LT with supercruise for <$60k would be competitive for some. Actual hands free interstate driving could be a big perk for some.

hypotheticals don't make for good arguments.
too many 'what ifs' tend to mask a poor basis.