Changes coming, but what does this all mean?

[Newbie2023]

Ok, fair enough as I don’t trust outside sources either…but, who is you inside source??

Here’s what my inside source said:

“…there will be a future HW 4.0 or Full Self Driving Computer 2 which we’ll probably introduce with the Cybertruck…." - Elon Musk

My inside source also said CT will likely be out later this year… I’m the new guy, so I gotta trust the Big Guy, right?

 

[dubK]

If that’s the only thing, dubK, then I would pull the trigger at today’s net price. The 3/1 event, current demand / deliveries extended to Q2, perceived excitement around HW4, $80k tax ceiling, inflation, current slim historical price gap between MYP-MY-M3, cost for new hardware upgrades, etc will all inflate the future price on the MYP (it already has started!). And, in no reasonable scenario in the near future can I expect Tesla not to fix that issue with vision. But YMMV…

Yes, I am leaning towards just taking delivery in March. You have some points, the $13k price cut was nice.
However just to clarify, I am from Sweden and here the MYP is almost $10k more expensive. We are also not getting any tax credits, Sweden removed it completely. MYLR also suited me better having a kid etc.

 

[Newbie2023]

Greeting from the US, dubK - sorry for my geographic assumptions. I don’t know anything about your market (nor much about the U.S. market for that matter , except common sense says the US Tesla market is poised for an increase. But, crazy over things have happened as recently as last month, so who knows…

 

[tangible1]

Ok, fair enough as I don’t trust outside sources either…but, who is you inside source??

Here’s what my inside source said:

“…there will be a future HW 4.0 or Full Self Driving Computer 2 which we’ll probably introduce with the Cybertruck…." - Elon Musk

My inside source also said CT will likely be out later this year… I’m the new guy, so I gotta trust the Big Guy, right?

Elon says lots of things, and the blogs run with whatever gets them clickbait.
THAT is the only constant you can count on.

CT will be in preproduction this year, in minor quantities, and with ramp early next year.
Tesla will introduce the CT with HW4. (note the subtle shift in language)(lots of that happens between what Elon says, and blogs...)
But deliver it before that, likely in MS and MX first (remember where that teardown came from). Tesla needs to sell more of those, and HW4 will be good bait.
And those buyers at that price point may be more willing to take $15K flyers on FSD.

 

[Newbie2023]

Thanks - and I think we both agree that HW4 will rollout on CTs before being seen on MYs. So, likely not on MYs until end of year?

 

[dvlsd]

No matter when you buy/take delivery, it’s only a matter of time before your iteration is out of date. Unless EAP or FSD are must have for you, price is the primary driver. They aren’t going to lower the MY price again anytime soon, if ever.

It depends. If FTC is cut in half after March, Elon will keep the same price for a while.

 

[Nubo]

Yep, I had a dream last weekend that I left a McDonalds and headed to a Costco 40 miles away, through a lot of surface streets and a medium sized city, over Interstate and the car drove up to the front door of the Costco with FSD the whole way, never turned off.

What was weird was that I actually was at McDonalds, and I actually was at Costco. Was I asleep, dreaming the whole way? If I was, evidently FSD got me there safely.

I do like dreams like that!

I certainly hope you were NOT asleep as that would have endangered your life as well as many others. Your Tesla got you to Costco, but it is not fully autonomous as the FSD moniker implies.

 

[tangible1]

Thanks - and I think we both agree that HW4 will rollout on CTs before being seen on MYs. So, likely not on MYs until end of year?

the MY is a wildcard.
I think HW4 introduction on the MY will depend on HW4 board supply.
Early will be upscale vehicles; MS MX.
after that, depends on suppliers.

 

[Midpack]

It depends. If FTC is cut in half after March, Elon will keep the same price for a while.

Maybe for the very short term, but price is dictated by demand v production, not what Elon chooses. Production was outpacing demand in Nov-Dec so they had to drop prices, not that they wanted to. Now demand is outpacing production so prices are coming back up slowly. The landscape will be ever changing (tax credits, production #, competitors, general economic conditions, etc.), and Tesla will price accordingly.

 

[Unclepaul]

With Tesla, changes are always coming.

Frequent OTA software changes help mitigate these changes, and help to keep your car up to date, but Tesla is constantly making physical changes and updates to their cars.

These updates are implemented when ever available to make the cars better, adapt to new regulations, lower production costs, increase production volume, adapt to variable supply chain issues etc.

Prices change, technology changes, configurations change, software changes, firmware changes, computer speeds change, displays change, performance changes, range changes, batteries change...

 

[ramlax13]

Tesla promised that vision only Auto Pilot would quickly be superior to the old vision plus radar system, this was almost two years ago, and I am still limited to 85 mph in Auto Pilot instead of the 90 mph radar equipped cars were capable of, and I am still limited to a minimum following distance of 2 instead of 1 like the radar equipped cars.

Good luck ever having as good of a parking experience as the USS equipped cars.

Keith

Luckily for you the NHTSA is going to limit all the auto pilot functionality to the speed limit, so in the US that's 85mph anyway max

 

[starise]

Apparently there is at least one older Tesla working with distance calculation for parking and no USS. Elon has said the same stack used for FSD is being slowly incorporated into basic AP. HW4 is more than cameras as there will be a new radar unit if my sources are to be believed. That one is 50/50.

We are making an assumption that HW4 could cost 13K. Where do we get this number from? I don't believe we will know how much the feature itself will cost because it isn't an option, it will be baked into future cars. Yes prices will go up, but they may not return to anywhere close to 22 levels. This is also an assumption, but I believe based on increased market competition from other EVs. To capture more of the market prices must stay close to those success levels in 23.

The new systems are first offered in S and X, so I don't see them in Y or 3 for months. I'm thinking the middle or end of 23 if we are lucky. I really hope I'm wrong on that one, but I doubt it as they will want to have cleared the last batch of buyers out by then. Monroe says there was about 150 dollars per car wrapped up in USS hardware. So Tesla saved about 150 million dollars over these production runs on this last batch of cars. Good for them. Bad for us?? It's all still wait and see until March. In any case, the demo car you drove will be the car you get.

If Elon said HW3 will not be grandfathered in, this would be more disappointing. HW3 is still functional and will have more positives later on, so yeah, I'm still buying my March delivery car. If they DO add HW4 I would be very surprised. Not impossible, not probable either.

 

[Mr_Joe]

I think he wants to collect more data for HW4 before CT, so my theory is that we'll see HW4 on the roads before CT his production.

 

[AJ..]

There's no telling when (though some may guess for you), Tesla usually just updates on their timeline with little or no notice. But Tesla says the features lost with removing USS are temporary implying they will be restored, see quote 1 below. Whether they go back to USS for future production, or make Pure Vision work who knows - but it is reasonable to expect lost features will be restored somehow.

If you get a car with HW3, you will not be able to upgrade to HW4, see quote 2 below. There are YouTube videos showing the different format of the two, they are not at all "swappable."

Given how FSD, phantom braking and other issues around actual production quality software have fared - and based on track record - I just can’t imagine how Tesla will support 2 forked code paths to process this data (with vision only, and with USS restored).
It may make more sense for Tesla to workout “swappable” HW4+ and subsequent improvements in software along that unified software path. Bit scary - being only select few (some 2022, and some 2023 builds) - to notice side effects of not having USS and having patchy software support for vision only.
Not trying to pick on Tesla here with this but anyone who has experienced phantom braking on highway can tell you how that takes a very long time to trust back these not so common new tech elements while driving on daily basis. It’s almost like you have to run your own algorithm with weather/visibility conditions, other members in your car, time of day, and actual roads and speeds you’ll be driving at before trying to engage AP.

 

[ewoodrick]

I certainly hope you were NOT asleep as that would have endangered your life as well as many others. Your Tesla got you to Costco, but it is not fully autonomous as the FSD moniker implies.

Being asleep was sarcasm.

If I wasn't driving and my wife who was the only other occupant in the car wasn't driving, then who was driving?

No it's not Level 5 autonomy. Yes it's beta. But it's getting pretty darn close.

And indeed was was pretty close to the FSD moniker. And I'm pretty sure that there's not another car out there that would have been able to do the trip.

 

[hmmwv]

What people are concerned here is the potential of taking delivery of a MY and miss out the biggest facelift the model has ever had in 3 years, and will remain "up to date" for the foreseeable future. This is going to be a much much more significant upgrade than HW3 from HW2.5 as it offers a completely new set of functions.
My prediction is that HW4 will be introduced on S/X first, probably in the coming months, then Model 3 Highland after factory retooling, then CT by end of the year, and finally when MY production finally catches up with demand Tesla will have spare capacity to do rolling upgrade of the lines to introduce it on MY, circa early to mid 2024.

 

[tangible1]

What people are concerned here is the potential of taking delivery of a MY and miss out the biggest facelift the model has ever had in 3 years, and will remain "up to date" for the foreseeable future. This is going to be a much much more significant upgrade than HW3 from HW2.5 as it offers a completely new set of functions.
My prediction is that HW4 will be introduced on S/X first, probably in the coming months, then Model 3 Highland after factory retooling, then CT by end of the year, and finally when MY production finally catches up with demand Tesla will have spare capacity to do rolling upgrade of the lines to introduce it on MY, circa early to mid 2024.

the biggest facelift of the MY was the introduction of the megacastings and structural battery pack.
what was the impact of those? arguably, only perception.
the HW4 is of limited value without FSD delivered. AP works just fine w/ HW3.

The biggest impact of HW4 on the MY will only be perceived as depreciation, not real.
we are back to the years of buying Tesla cars like PCs, based on their promoted features rather than actual feature use.

 

[Newbie2023]

This thread has been therapeutic for me, thank you all! It helped me define why I bought the MYP in the first place.

Since I’m a bit of control freak (I rarely ever used cruise control with ICEs), I didn’t purchase the car for its autopilot or any of its futuristic promises (I love actually driving the car all by myself!). Parking features are important I guess, but the reality is that I don’t have the patience for auto park (and take great pride in my parallel-parking-superpowers) and I usually back up into spots using the cameras, mirrors, and my eyes! That challenge is fun for me.

I also don’t need the headaches, liability, etc of the car being summoned to me from afar (I can also use the steps when parking away from the entrance). That stuff all seems a little overrated and unnecessary for my needs. And, from a value perspective, neither $6k or $15k makes sense for all that, especially since I will never share / sub out my car to be a robotaxi

I do love saving time by kissing the weekly gas station trips and the routine maintenance appointments goodbye. I love the acceleration (I never experienced 0-60 in 3.5 Mississippis!), and the regen stopping power and position hold. I also love the space - so deceptive from the outside, soooo roomy inside. Finally, the range of the MYP is far more than I regularly use, and by plugging-in daily, I never have to worry about an empty tank.

I think the biggest reason I went with MYP, however, is it’s cool and effortless simplicity (from the purchasing / service app, the aesthetic body lines, visually appealing / minimalistic interior, the one-button park, one pedal start/stop, scheduled preconditioning, remote start, remote cameras, etc.). But, if I get bored and want a little bit of complexity, I can review diagnostics, make adjustments on almost anything, etc. none of that will be going away in the 10 years I expect to own this car…

So, with all that said, I really hate overpaying for cars! I’m so happy I purchased now, and there’s no hoping and guessing that I did so at the best price (historically speaking and based on traditional pricing spread between MY-MYP-M3, and in relation with the overall market value w/ inflation and other forces).

For a car with no buttons, it now perfectly pushes all of mine as is! Thanks everyone.

 

[zoomer0056]

just sayin'. CT won't be the first. HW4 is much closer to release than that.

That article says "HW4 in CT next year." The article was written in 2021, so that meant HW4 and CT in 2022. Hmm, all this bla bla bla is pre-fake news. Ha!

 

[tangible1]

That article says "HW4 in CT next year." The article was written in 2021, so that meant HW4 and CT in 2022. Hmm, all this bla bla bla is pre-fake news. Ha!

the blogs gotta get clickbait