Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

[bro1999]

My son just bought a Bolt yesterday. Motivating factors:

1. The 2012 Nissan Leaf he traded was going to have too much battery degradation just past warranty and a new battery was going to cost over $6,000.

2. He seemed to get more on his Leaf trade-in than he had paid for the car.

3. The new 2018 Leaf has only 150 mile battery (probably 115 freeway miles).

4. The 2018 Leaf still has no thermal management so it will still have rapid battery degradation.

5. The tax incentive may be gone shortly.

6. The Bolt has longer range (238 mi) than everyone but Tesla. However, Bolt charging infrastructure needs to greatly catch up.

7. The car is available now. However, extremely few are in stock. It appears to be a compliance car and is also not advertised or well stocked.

8. The size was adequate for him but is however smaller than Leaf or Tesla.

9. It looks better (live) than in photos, however not as good as Tesla.

10. Better price than Tesla.

Again, I completely agree with others, that Chevy, so far, has made this as a compliance car.

The reason so few are in stock (I take it you are in CA) is because Bolt demand has increased so much that even volume dealers are SELLING OUT. Anyone in the SF bay area (probably the Bolt's #1 market), try calling a Bolt-certified Chevy dealer and ask if they have any Bolts. You'll probably get laughed at.
I just read a post on another forum where a dealer rep stated they sold out of new Bolt inventory as soon as they came in. Literally, there are waiting lists for Bolts at many volume dealers due to demand. GM may need to start adding shifts at the Bolt's factory soon.

Compliance car? More like the tip of the iceberg.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

The reason so few are in stock (I take it you are in CA) is because Bolt demand has increased so much that even volume dealers are SELLING OUT. Anyone in the SF bay area (probably the Bolt's #1 market), try calling a Bolt-certified Chevy dealer and ask if they have any Bolts. You'll probably get laughed at.
I just read a post on another forum where a dealer rep stated they sold out of new Bolt inventory as soon as they came in. Literally, there are waiting lists for Bolts at many volume dealers due to demand. GM may need to start adding shifts at the Bolt's factory soon.

Compliance car? More like the tip of the iceberg.

Well, they are heavily discounted...and people are concerned about the tax credit.

I think you may be confusing fear of losing out on the tax credit to a sudden favorable outlook on the Bolt.

 

[ZsoZso]

There is something I do not understand.

First the facts:
1. GM sold about 20K Bolts so far this year, will probably sell another ~3K in December
2. GM announced at the time of release that they anticipate ~30K Bolt sales a year
3. They also stated that if there is enough demand, they could increase production to ~50K
4. The cars are hard to get, most dealers sell them as they arrive or faster (pre-order)

So my questions: IF we assume (as suggested by @bro1999) that it is not a compliance car and GM is not losing money on every car sold, then what is the hold-up ? Why don't they produce even the planned number (seem to be missing ~7K) ?
Do they have a production ramp problem like Tesla ? Where is the 100-year experience in high volume car production then ? Remember, we are more than a year from initial launch...

 

[bro1999]

There is something I do not understand.

First the facts:
1. GM sold about 20K Bolts so far this year, will probably sell another ~3K in December
2. GM announced at the time of release that they anticipate ~30K Bolt sales a year
3. They also stated that if there is enough demand, they could increase production to ~50K
4. The cars are hard to get, most dealers sell them as they arrive or faster (pre-order)

So my questions: IF we assume (as suggested by @bro1999) that it is not a compliance car and GM is not losing money on every car sold, then what is the hold-up ? Why don't they produce even the planned number (seem to be missing ~7K) ?
Do they have a production ramp problem like Tesla ? Where is the 100-year experience in high volume car production then ? Remember, we are more than a year from initial launch...

IMO, the profit margins on Bolts currently are still not at the point that GM wants before "unleashing the floodgates" so to speak. It is probably true that, before CARB credit calcs, GM is making little, if any money, on Bolt sales. They may even be losing money (but not at the $10k per unit loss quoted by that one bogus source).

What I think GM is doing with the Bolt is to continue to brand conquest efforts that it has successfully carried out with the Volt (Prius conquests were #1 for the Volt), and I believe 3/4ths of Bolt customers are new to Chevy. The Bolt EV continues to build on GM's plug-in street cred, as the Volt has done.

Then when vehicles on GM's next EV platform (due in 2020 or 2021) are released, they will be the vehicles where GM can truly start turning profits to the point they will be enticed to build as many as the market demands. The Bolt is just a stepping stone to that point.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

IMO, the profit margins on Bolts currently are still not at the point that GM wants before "unleashing the floodgates" so to speak. It is probably true that, before CARB credit calcs, GM is making little, if any money, on Bolt sales. They may even be losing money (but not at the $10k per unit loss quoted by that one bogus source).

What I think GM is doing with the Bolt is to continue to brand conquest efforts that it has successfully carried out with the Volt (Prius conquests were #1 for the Volt), and I believe 3/4ths of Bolt customers are new to Chevy. The Bolt EV continues to build on GM's plug-in street cred, as the Volt has done.

Then when vehicles on GM's next EV platform (due in 2020 or 2021) are released, they will be the vehicles where GM can truly start turning profits to the point they will be enticed to build as many as the market demands. The Bolt is just a stepping stone to that point.

It seems that the Prius Prime, despite having less practical EV range is just as popular as the Volt. In fact, it would seem that any "brand conquests" with the Volt are going to be tenuous at best. People purchased the Volt because there wasn't an alternative, not because they've all the sudden switched brand loyalty.

The timeframe you're discussing is going to be rife with competition, from all major manufacturers...most using the exact same company to source the most expensive components of an EV. There will also be hundreds of thousands of Model 3 manufacturing capacity, as well as the introduction of Model Y.

I'm not sure what you think GM is doing over the competition to entice people into their EVs. In fact, I know how much you like to fall back on the Bolt's awards...but according to the newest MT head-to-head article, it seems that GM was very lucky not to go up against the Model 3 last year, and apparently the 200 mile LEAF in their view "will be a credible Bolt alternative".

The Automobile 2.0: Chevrolet Bolt EV vs Nissan Leaf vs Tesla Model 3 Long Range - Motor Trend

So, if, as you say, GM is trying to continue brand conquest efforts...I think they're going to have to do a lot better than "the Bolt's available now (sort of)!"

 

[patrick40363]

Bolts are over $5K off MSRP at a dealer in southern Illinois. Great deal.

 

[scaesare]

IMO, the profit margins on Bolts currently are still not at the point that GM wants before "unleashing the floodgates" so to speak. It is probably true that, before CARB credit calcs, GM is making little, if any money, on Bolt sales. They may even be losing money (but not at the $10k per unit loss quoted by that one bogus source).

What I think GM is doing with the Bolt is to continue to brand conquest efforts that it has successfully carried out with the Volt (Prius conquests were #1 for the Volt), and I believe 3/4ths of Bolt customers are new to Chevy. The Bolt EV continues to build on GM's plug-in street cred, as the Volt has done.

Then when vehicles on GM's next EV platform (due in 2020 or 2021) are released, they will be the vehicles where GM can truly start turning profits to the point they will be enticed to build as many as the market demands. The Bolt is just a stepping stone to that point.

Then if they anticipated 30K sales, why only 20K?

And if the answer is lack of production, why are they not only producing 10K less than their own forecast, but not ramping up to the 50K they announced they were capable of?

Something doesn't add up.

 

[bro1999]

Then if they anticipated 30K sales, why only 20K?

And if the answer is lack of production, why are they not only producing 10K less than their own forecast, but not ramping up to the 50K they announced they were capable of?

Something doesn't add up.

Add in the sales in Europe (~1,500), Canada (~2,000), South Korea (~400), to the 20k sold thus far, and project sales for December, and we're right at that 30k mark.
AFAIK, LG stated they expected around 30k sales for 2017. GM has never given an official sales projection. Only number GM has stated in regards to the Bolt is that if there was demand for 50k in 2017, it would not be a problem to meet that demand.

 

[scaesare]

Add in the sales in Europe (~1,500), Canada (~2,000), South Korea (~400), to the 20k sold thus far, and project sales for December, and we're right at that 30k mark.
AFAIK, LG stated they expected around 30k sales for 2017. GM has never given an official sales projection. Only number GM has stated in regards to the Bolt is that if there was demand for 50k in 2017, it would not be a problem to meet that demand.

Adding in those other countries totals less than 24K. Extrapolating out another month of sales is only 26K. Even if you allow for the recent rise it's still less than projected, yet if there's really demand for even more the lack of additional production is puzzling.

 

[bro1999]

It seems that the Prius Prime, despite having less practical EV range is just as popular as the Volt. In fact, it would seem that any "brand conquests" with the Volt are going to be tenuous at best. People purchased the Volt because there wasn't an alternative, not because they've all the sudden switched brand loyalty.

The timeframe you're discussing is going to be rife with competition, from all major manufacturers...most using the exact same company to source the most expensive components of an EV. There will also be hundreds of thousands of Model 3 manufacturing capacity, as well as the introduction of Model Y.

I'm not sure what you think GM is doing over the competition to entice people into their EVs. In fact, I know how much you like to fall back on the Bolt's awards...but according to the newest MT head-to-head article, it seems that GM was very lucky not to go up against the Model 3 last year, and apparently the 200 mile LEAF in their view "will be a credible Bolt alternative".

The Automobile 2.0: Chevrolet Bolt EV vs Nissan Leaf vs Tesla Model 3 Long Range - Motor Trend

So, if, as you say, GM is trying to continue brand conquest efforts...I think they're going to have to do a lot better than "the Bolt's available now (sort of)!"

The Bolt seemed to hold up quite well in that review, despite being ptited against cars either 1 year newer or $20k more expensive. I'd like to see that review done again with a short range Model 3.

 

[bro1999]

Adding in those other countries totals less than 24K. Extrapolating out another month of sales is only 26K. Even if you allow for the recent rise it's still less than projected, yet if there's really demand for even more the lack of additional production is puzzling.

20k + 1.5k + 2k + 400 = 24k as of 1 Dec.
Now add in 1 more month of sales for the month that is always the biggest sales month for EVs. At a minimum, another 3k Bolts will sell in the US. Now we're at 27k. Add in the other international sales, and the likely small number of 2018's produced the last week or 2 of December, and we have production of 30k Bolts in 2017.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

The Bolt seemed to hold up quite well in that review, despite being ptited against cars either 1 year newer or $20k more expensive. I'd like to see that review done again with a short range Model 3.

The attributes most enjoyed about the Model 3 vs Bolt, are still true on the base Model 3...however. And you'll be able to get an Model 3 SR with PUP for less than a comparably optioned Bolt (excluding heavy dealer discounting, of course).

 

[scaesare]

20k + 1.5k + 2k + 400 = 24k as of 1 Dec.
Now add in 1 more month of sales for the month that is always the biggest sales month for EVs. At a minimum, another 3k Bolts will sell in the US. Now we're at 27k. Add in the other international sales, and the likely small number of 2018's produced the last week or 2 of December, and we have production of 30k Bolts in 2017.

Actually the US sales was slightly shy of 20K, but close enough. Another ~3K for US =~27K

Why do you assume the rest of the word sales will equal another 3K in Dec when the total for the 11 previous months only equals less than 4K?

Any why ignore the larger question this leads to that's been pointed out here several times: Why they apparent constraint getting one if GM was prepared to manufacture 50K if needed?

 

[transpondster]

probably they were ready for 50k CARB sales not 50k any sales, Norway alone easily would swallowed 5-7k this year

 

[techmaven]

probably they were ready for 50k CARB sales not 50k any sales, Norway alone easily would swallowed 5-7k this year

That's why it's still a compliance car. #1 duty is CARB ZEV credits. It isn't the best car it can be... GM's #1 priority is ZEV credits, tweaking Tesla is #2 (or trying to seem relevant), a reasonably usable long range BEV is somewhere down the list.

 

[bro1999]

That's why it's still a compliance car. #1 duty is CARB ZEV credits. It isn't the best car it can be... GM's #1 priority is ZEV credits, tweaking Tesla is #2 (or trying to seem relevant), a reasonably usable long range BEV is somewhere down the list.

How many ZEV credits does GM receive for each sale in the 39 non-CARB states they are selling the Bolt in?
Oh wait, why are they even selling Bolts in the 39 non-CARB states if it is a compliance car? And why make a compliance car the focus of their robo-taxi fleet that will launch in 2019? And what's the point of launching 20 more BEVs by 2023 if the Bolt is all they need for compliance?

GM also recently announced they will sell Bolts in the UAE/middle east. How many ZEV credits does GM receive in the UAE again? Wait, what? 0 you say? GM is really screwing up their compliance car effort! Selling in all these places where they receive 0 credits!

Your "compliance car" rant has more holes than a piece of swiss cheese.

 

[bro1999]

Actually the US sales was slightly shy of 20K, but close enough. Another ~3K for US =~27K

Why do you assume the rest of the word sales will equal another 3K in Dec when the total for the 11 previous months only equals less than 4K?

Any why ignore the larger question this leads to that's been pointed out here several times: Why they apparent constraint getting one if GM was prepared to manufacture 50K if needed?

Actually sales are slightly OVER 20k, at 20,070, but who's counting. November 2017 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

If GM only sells 29k Bolts versus 30k LG said they expected GM to sell (note GM has still never put out an official sales goal for Bolts in 2017), does it really matter? It's not like GM promised 100-200k Bolts to be sold in 2017, then delivered only a couple thousand.
Oh no! GM missed a 30k sales goal that it never actually made itself.

I actually think GM has an outside shot of selling 4k Bolts this month in the US. 3k is the absolute floor.

 

[scaesare]

OK. If you want to play games with if they will miss the 30K target by 2 vs 3K I really don't care.

It seems you don't want to discuss the larger issue that's been raised multiple times, so no sense prolonging the thread...

 

[techmaven]

How many ZEV credits does GM receive for each sale in the 39 non-CARB states they are selling the Bolt in?
Oh wait, why are they even selling Bolts in the 39 non-CARB states if it is a compliance car? And why make a compliance car the focus of their robo-taxi fleet that will launch in 2019? And what's the point of launching 20 more BEVs by 2023 if the Bolt is all they need for compliance?

GM also recently announced they will sell Bolts in the UAE/middle east. How many ZEV credits does GM receive in the UAE again? Wait, what? 0 you say? GM is really screwing up their compliance car effort! Selling in all these places where they receive 0 credits!

Your "compliance car" rant has more holes than a piece of swiss cheese.

Priority was CARB ZEV states... and only when there was limited reception, they moved onto other states. Priority still is CARB ZEV states.

Did GM fix the DCFC charge rate issue for 2018? No?

Truth is that the expectations for the Bolt was far, far higher than ~25k in the U.S. for 2017. Just like the expectation was that Tesla would make the Model 3 in high volume by now... and they haven't. Original expectations (during initial unveil) for the Model 3 was end of 2017, but Tesla moved it up, and now back to that original. The expectations of the first < $40k 200+mile range BEV by a major automaker was much, much higher. The reality is that the car isn't that good.

 

[bro1999]

OK. If you want to play games with if they will miss the 30K target by 2 vs 3K I really don't care.

It seems you don't want to discuss the larger issue that's been raised multiple times, so no sense prolonging the thread...

I already answered your "larger issue" question. If you missed it, owell.