voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
Absolutely true.
Either they knew in July that they were not going to ship on time.
Or they were unrealistically optimistic about fixing the problems they must have known they had at that point in time.
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Absolutely true.
Either they knew in July that they were not going to ship on time.
Or they were unrealistically optimistic about fixing the problems they must have known they had at that point in time.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Just shift it by 2 months and it'll be good to go again.
edit, someone beat me to it
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
whitex
Well-Known Member
I'm glad they clarified it, so nobody assumed they were going to implement 10,000 units per week before they achieve the 5,000 per week run rate.
Sounds like "The future is firmly ahead of us!" pep talk.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Don't be too hasty, there is no year on the chart. It could still be valid.
whitex
Well-Known Member
I'm sure they have web developers who can make this a dynamic graphic that adjusts the x-axis to today's date at the start. Once they start meaningful production (i.e. not just for employees) then still start the chart with today's date, just shift the graph up to start at today's run rate. It's an old startup revenue prediction trick dating back to the dot-com boom.
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TaoJones
Beyond Driven
The sky is not falling. Before the recent prognostications, the expectation was to produce a Model 3 by end of 2017 and to go to town in 2018. Well, they've produced about as many Model 3s already as Model Ss that were delivered from July 2012 to December 2012.
Yes, they predictably screwed the pooch with the updated predictions (5K/week by end of 2017), but in the big picture, all is still well. One of the markers I use is the competition. While true that other manufacturers will finally get into the game late 2018 and beyond, it is also true that NOBODY has the infrastructure that Tesla has. Ergo, all of the upcoming spiffy new offerings from VW and others will remain in-town cars. Fine. Let them cannibalize each other's sales.
Even the upcoming Leaf and current Bolt are still in-town cars until there are more (in the case of the Bolt) CCS chargers. The Leaf is ahead of the pack (the second-tier pack to be sure) due to their free 2-year charging plan. But still - for as much credit as I've given AeroVironment for their excellent $20/month unlimited full-strength and fully-functional Chademo network (see coastal Oregon, for example), those installations are still onesies (1 Chademo, 1 L2) and that's a recipe for frustration in the short term.
Back to Tesla. The full (US) tax credit is preserved for that much longer (perhaps for the rest of 2018 now), and there will be that many more CPO/private party used Model Ss to consider as alternatives to the Model 3 as well. Put another way, people who want a new Tesla can still get one, the waiting list for new Model 3s will still be ridiculously deep, and people who don't mind a used Tesla will have more choices until the Model 3 ramp catches up with the crazy good global demand.
Lastly, there appears, from after hours trading at least, that there may be some nice juicy entry points at which to add more TSLA shares (figure there will be at least one obligatory downgrade coming).
I empathize with those waiting for a new Model 3. The wait for my first Model S was as excruciating as it was relatively brief (about 2 months). But with every week, improvements will be made to the manufacturing process (after all, they still will produce batteries by hand to fulfill demo car needs). Of all of the delays so far, I daresay this is perhaps the least worst - maybe because we knew it was coming. Whoever it was that posted that exposé post about how things really are/were at the Gigafactory did us a service.
In brief, and with specific regard to the Model 3 effort, I'm more optimistic than bummed.
After all, this is a far better story than the AP2 clusterfook, the now infamous December 2016 video, ,the supercharging bait and switch, and the 90kW/100kW battery headgames from this past Spring. Especially since those happened more or less at the same time.
After all a second time, how else would we have seen a billionaire toasting marshmallows over a campfire ON TOP OF THE GIGAFACTORY? While enjoying a proper glass of whiskey, no less.
Yes, they predictably screwed the pooch with the updated predictions (5K/week by end of 2017), but in the big picture, all is still well. One of the markers I use is the competition. While true that other manufacturers will finally get into the game late 2018 and beyond, it is also true that NOBODY has the infrastructure that Tesla has. Ergo, all of the upcoming spiffy new offerings from VW and others will remain in-town cars. Fine. Let them cannibalize each other's sales.
Even the upcoming Leaf and current Bolt are still in-town cars until there are more (in the case of the Bolt) CCS chargers. The Leaf is ahead of the pack (the second-tier pack to be sure) due to their free 2-year charging plan. But still - for as much credit as I've given AeroVironment for their excellent $20/month unlimited full-strength and fully-functional Chademo network (see coastal Oregon, for example), those installations are still onesies (1 Chademo, 1 L2) and that's a recipe for frustration in the short term.
Back to Tesla. The full (US) tax credit is preserved for that much longer (perhaps for the rest of 2018 now), and there will be that many more CPO/private party used Model Ss to consider as alternatives to the Model 3 as well. Put another way, people who want a new Tesla can still get one, the waiting list for new Model 3s will still be ridiculously deep, and people who don't mind a used Tesla will have more choices until the Model 3 ramp catches up with the crazy good global demand.
Lastly, there appears, from after hours trading at least, that there may be some nice juicy entry points at which to add more TSLA shares (figure there will be at least one obligatory downgrade coming).
I empathize with those waiting for a new Model 3. The wait for my first Model S was as excruciating as it was relatively brief (about 2 months). But with every week, improvements will be made to the manufacturing process (after all, they still will produce batteries by hand to fulfill demo car needs). Of all of the delays so far, I daresay this is perhaps the least worst - maybe because we knew it was coming. Whoever it was that posted that exposé post about how things really are/were at the Gigafactory did us a service.
In brief, and with specific regard to the Model 3 effort, I'm more optimistic than bummed.
After all, this is a far better story than the AP2 clusterfook, the now infamous December 2016 video, ,the supercharging bait and switch, and the 90kW/100kW battery headgames from this past Spring. Especially since those happened more or less at the same time.
After all a second time, how else would we have seen a billionaire toasting marshmallows over a campfire ON TOP OF THE GIGAFACTORY? While enjoying a proper glass of whiskey, no less.
fluxemag
Member
Anyone surprised by the delay should read Elon’s biography. He doesn’t have realistic timelines as his baseline, although ultimately delivering incredible results. It was a mistake to publish those timelines for delivery to reservation holders, as every product has been late. Repeat customers know this and plan on it.
"... we have seen a billionaire toasting marshmallows over a campfire ON TOP OF THE GIGAFACTORY.
I'm beginning to imagine just off camera there was a production manager hanging by a noose.
I'm beginning to imagine just off camera there was a production manager hanging by a noose.
whitex
Well-Known Member
"ultimately delivering incredible results" doesn't mean he delivers on what he promised to the people he promised it to. For example, the infamous 691hp P85D he sold to us - yes eventually P100D comes close, but those who paid for a P85D must be satisfied with 463hp, so maybe less incredible result for them (Tesla would need to increase their hp by 50% in order to meet Elon's hype, not going to happen). Other examples include park and summon anywhere on private property for AP1, also will never happen, even if Elon eventually delivers the feature on some future version of AP. Big lesson is, cheer for Elon's successes but never count or pay for anything he promises in the future, until it's delivered.
Blu Angel
Member
I not terribly disappointed! You just knew something was gonna give in the Model 3 production build out.
I'm in no way ready or willing to cancel my Model 3 reservation.......just gonna bincrease the anticipation!
fluxemag
Member
Oh...I know. I’m not going to chronicle all the flippant claims, but there are many.
Nay-sayers have been shorting TSLA since they first started building the Roadster. The stock is indeed volatile, but in the long term it just keeps going up.
It was to be expected. Tesla produces quality. It does not meet deadlines. I can't make it sound good, but I do expect we will all love this car when it finally does arrive.
I have always figured the end of the quarter after the one they "estimate." So my page said January-March 2018 and I figure end of June, 2018, give or take a month. I won't be terribly surprised if mine is end of July. Or even end of summer.
I would be upset by the delay because I am impatient by nature, but this only means I'll be driving my Roadster longer. I sympathize with those waiting for their first EV. (I've been driving electric since I got my Zap Xebra in 2006 or 2007, so I'll just say as hard as the waiting is, it's worth it to go electric.)
I just got the email, but my delivery estimate page has not yet been updated.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Nay-sayers don't own Tesla Stock. So how can they short it?.
________________________
I expected what Tesla said. I expected the S curve they put on their website. If you didn't believe it....then that means something else.
I believe they are going to put up another S curve shortly......are you going to believe that one or not? You and many others seem to have the inside scoop on delays. Will the next S-curve and projection hopes and dreams be the truth?
________________________
This is what my email said concerning updated delivery dates. :Let us know after 24 hours if your delivery window remains the same.
"Over the next 24 hours, you can log into your Tesla Account at any time to view your updated delivery window."
Garlan Garner
Banned
You think there are 2,600 Model 3's in the wild? OK. That's still not per schedule.
Please explain further how cows and pomegranates relate to battery assembly problems in Tesla Energy Model 3 automobiles.
But seriously, Model 3 battery assemblies are not affected by TSLA share pricing, EAP, Leafs, Bolts, $7500 credits, Model S production, CHAdeMO, crazy-good-demand, Superchargers, frunks, or anything other than a problem that Tesla has known about for 4 months and finally acknowledge that production is restrained.
You are incorrect about tax credits. If the M3 rolls out slow, then fewer Model 3 buyers will qualify. Why? Because they Model S/X production still exists.
I will get optimistic about production when production numbers are up. Speeches and Twitter are for politicians, sales are for automakers.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
If anything, your limitation of my comment about tax credits is incorrect. I certainly didn’t limit the comment to Model 3s.
Further, what difference does it make about why production is limited? It was, and it is. That’s inarguable. Or if you prefer, unarguable.
I was told by an SvC manager who lived through it that they delivered 5 Model S in July 2012 and only a couple hundred by December. However, if it was 2,600 as you say, and as, in hindsight, does make more sense, then still Tesla intends to exceed that by eoy.
Your overall point is well-taken - they have to deliver cars, period.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I suppose oddly, I find today's news comforting. Tesla sounds to be on track with production that is only 2-3 months past the most rosy scenario possible. I just hope the stock takes a dive so I can buy some cheaply.
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