It took us 4 weeks to modify the consent after the first hold, I can't imagine any dramatic change in the protocol taking affect before the end of accrual. We hope to complete US accrual first or second week of December.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Tiger
Active Member
What is the expected (according to statistics) recovery rate of hospitalized patients?
Define 'recovery'.
Left the hospital not dead ?
Worldometer has graphs. Not for all countries though.
E.g. France looks really bad.
Italy looks better.
Germany better still.
Big differences.
Probably amongst other things a function of how overwhelmed hospitals are.
But I wonder if there are also differences in tracking and reporting.
What's a full recovery from COVID19? My wife is seeing patients in her office everyday with myocarditis, other cardiac disease and a lot with new onset chronic fatigue. And she says a lot were never hospitalized.
I haven’t seen detailed statistics on that recently but if 12% of confirmed cases end up in the hospital and the Case Fatality Rate is 1.7% that implies that around 86% of hospitalized COVID-19 cases don’t die.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Here is Goldman’s hot take on the rollout. Looks like they expect 20-30 million in US vaccinated (with first dose only I assume) by end of 2020.
50% by Apr 21 seems an unreachable goal in the U.S. given the number of anti-vaxers and CV-19 is a hoax believers. And then virtually no growth until the end of September. Also all the countries have just about the same vaccination rate. I would have though that every country, other than the U.S. would be far higher in terms of percentage of population. Or is the graph showing that the pharmaceutical companies are taking a three month holiday?
The government bureaucrats don't want to add another category, but we need to add an extra one: Recovered with lingering symptoms. I suspect that category would be big enough to panic a lot of government types who were hoping this pandemic could be completely in the rear view mirror in another year.
The N is very small, but my neurofeedback therapist has seen a couple of cases of post-COVID fatigue with similar symptoms to my partner who had an allergic reaction in the 1980s that almost killed her (one of the top neurologists in the US told her that her symptoms were so rare because everyone else who has a reaction as bad as hers was dies). He's found similarities in the brain wave patterns between the post-COVID patients and what my partner had coming in.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I would guess that is what that plateau represents, partially. But must be something else since other countries have it too. And the ramp up for children will be due to mandatory vaccinations, required to attend school.
But these are just guesses. The plateaus are weird, because they apply to other countries too. Maybe vaccines are directed to other countries in Southern Hemisphere? It’s also Goldman, so they probably have no idea what they are talking about.
Personally I am hoping for as many antivax and COVID-is-a-hoax people as possible so I can get the vaccine ASAP. Otherwise, I am basically last, even though since I am 43 I actually believe I am at moderate risk. It is kind of the worst since the risk is not high enough to qualify for early vaccination, but it is also not negligible. I am at 20x the risk of most 20 year olds.
And I am guessing pressure will be on to return to work unvaccinated early next year once deaths get snubbed by vaccination of the vulnerable. Even though risks will not have changed much for me personally.
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Dr. J
Active Member
Not unreachable for that reason by *some* date, assuming those willing to be vaccinated can do so before the unwilling. More than 50% wants to be vaccinated.
Poll: Fewer Americans want a Covid-19 vaccine as soon as possible
OCTOBER 19, 2020
Overall, 58% of the U.S. public said they would get vaccinated as soon as a vaccine was available when asked earlier this month, down considerably from 69% who said the same thing in mid-August. That change suggests growing concern that the regulatory approval process for a Covid-19 vaccine has been politicized by the Trump administration in the run-up to the presidential election.
My proposal for improving American's "take" rate; since we can't hold going to school over the heads of the adults, we should hold the cost of care should they get infected after documentation that they refused a no-cost vac. Self-pay on hospitalization hanging over their head might change their viewpoint!
The beetles in the pudding with this is "no cost" vaccine. My guess is that every politician involved will get between $10,000 to $500,000 extra from the pharmaceutical companies to ensure "no cost" doesn't happen--much as I wish that it would happen.
Someone will pay. Big pharma already received billions from the US Govt for the vaccine. You can bet that the US Govt will pay whatever is needed to get the rest of the doses.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Author: Christopher VanLang
Senior Engineer at Drug and Pharmaceutical Companies
Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering, Stanford University
Why does the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine have to be kept -70º C while Moderna's can be kept at -20º C if they are both RNA vaccines? - Coronavirus - Quora
Senior Engineer at Drug and Pharmaceutical Companies
Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering, Stanford University
Why does the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine have to be kept -70º C while Moderna's can be kept at -20º C if they are both RNA vaccines? - Coronavirus - Quora
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Eric Topol -- "This will go down in history as one of science and medical research's greatest achievements. Perhaps the most impressive.
I put together a preliminary timeline of some key milestones to show how several years of work were compressed into months."
I put together a preliminary timeline of some key milestones to show how several years of work were compressed into months."
My wife was notified that her Mother died this afternoon. One more COVID19 death in Pennsylvania.
Very sorry to hear that @madodel. Had she been ill with it for long? I wish these maskless people who help spread it truly realized the human cost of this and the impact to families and helped stop the spread instead of being part of the problem.
Thank you. 2 weeks ago she tested positive. The assisted living facility where she lived now has about 45 residents and a bunch of staff who tested positive. She was 97 and in hospice care the past week so she died peacefully.
So sorry to see this, condolences to you, your wife and your family.
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