That’s a bit pessimistic. I think it shows we will need a booster shot this fall that is based on the spike protein from the Brazilian/South African variants.
Maybe the virus will continue to mutate with similarly effective antibody escape changes after that but we don’t actually know yet. At worst, we might seem to need an annually booster shot at the same time as people get their flu shots.
I can totally understand pessimism. The trajectory of mutation (which seems to be arguably faster than influenza in the spike protein, over a short time scale) seems very frightening. But as discussed, the possibility of rapid evolution to a local optimum is quite possible.
There's a lot we don't know about some variants (like P.1), and we don't have the clinical results we'd like to see on all the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines. So lots of unknowns.
That being said, there's a lot of optimism to be had with some of the results. It's just that there are scary unknowns as well.
I take the view that the vaccines are so good right now that they will likely only help, and that will probably remain the case for at least several months. And the preliminary hospitalization data is so encouraging. If only we had more of the vaccines!
In general I'd have guessed that vaccines like Pfizer would actually be less effective against mutations than the old dead virus vaccines, which result in a broad range of anti-bodies.
I'm not sure that immunologists agree, tbh. I don't understand immunology, but there seems to be a lot of optimism about the promise of mRNA vaccines, and some of the other novel delivery methods. It seems that one reason (maybe??? Not an immunologist!) is that presenting antigens on the surface of your own cells tends to result in a quite strong immune response.
Note also that there IS a broad range of anti-bodies generated by this vaccine - all over the spike, some in areas not changed by the current variants - and the spike is the part that is key to viral function. Some of these antibodies are used for direct interference with binding, and some are used for priming the killer T cell response, from what I understand. I suppose you could think of other delivery methods as creating a diffuse response where the immune system has to create a bunch of useless antibodies that don't actually interfere with viral function (again, not an immunologist, just speculation).
Their reluctance to test and publish studies on actual viruses is just adding to the skepticism esp. given the results by J&J in S Africa.
I think it's more likely that they haven't had enough time to produce results yet. A trial where there are minimal infections takes some time, especially if you have to find a place with high prevalence of the South African strain.
