Coronavirus

[bkp_duke]

Did you believe in Iraq WMD as well ... afterall it was CIA over Saddam ?

May be Bay of Pigs too ? And that Mandela was a communist and should have been jailed for years ?

Do you believe the Chinese, a communist authoritarian government, over ours? The US is far from perfect, but that's a pretty easy call for me. Especially since I've worked in a lab with viruses and know how easy it is for mistakes to happen.

 

[dhanson865]

I think there will be more cases and deaths but as long as the major population centers are vaccinated (and they are getting there), we will not be anywhere close to the previous highs.

note we don't have to hit highs to have a new wave, just a noticeable increase in cases and deaths.

At this point half way through the year we are about 100,000 deaths below last years total. The 7 day moving average has us at about 500 deaths per day.

The question is will this fall be a non issue and we don't see many more deaths or will we get some sort of spike / new wave? I'm not even considering the high points of thousands of deaths per day (7 day average peaked Jan 16 2021 at 3482 deaths per day).

Notice that the low point between wave 1 and wave 2 was Jul 5th 2020 at a 7 day average of 519 deaths.

We just reached a moving average of 501 with yesterdays data May 30 2021. Making it the lowest number of deaths per day average since the initial upwards slope of the first wave.

Will we have a 4th wave? If last year is the guide first week of November will be the start of the up slope in deaths following an uptick in cases in October.

 

[eevee-fan]

Maskless experiment begins... mandate lifted in Nevada as of 1 Jun, nowhere near the 80% vaccination rate in SF. Will be watching see how things go this month.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The 7 day moving average has us at about 500 deaths per day.

This is probably headed to about 250 per day by mid-June based on current case levels and current CFR. (Note how the mirroring of cases and deaths has started to fail as older people are taken out of the vulnerable pool - there was no bump in deaths associated with the last bump in cases - CFR is dropping.) And if case levels continue to drop it will go below 200 a day.

Will we have a 4th wave?

I guess it depends what you mean. Roughly, I'd expect we'll hit some semi-steady state of about 50-100 deaths a day this summer (maybe lower if vaccination efforts continue vigorously beyond the current July 4th goal).

Could the number of deaths quadruple to 200-400 per day in the fall? Maybe. Does that count as a wave? I think so. I think anything higher than that would require a variant with substantial vaccine escape.

However, I think it's more likely that the deaths drop even lower than that 50-100 death per day number as the summer comes to an end, and the virus will not resurge in any significant way in the fall. I think I would go with that if I were forced to pick. With vaccine escape, I'd be wrong, of course. That's what is going to determine what happens. Nothing else - I don't think seasonality alone will be able to defeat the vaccine, because it is awesome. I don't think an increase from 50 deaths per day to 100 deaths per day counts as a wave, and I think it's more likely we'd see something like that at worst.

I definitely think we will stay below 700k total deaths by the end of 2021. I hope I'm right!

If last year is the guide first week of November will be the start of the up slope in deaths

If last year is a guide we should start seeing a rise in deaths at end of June. We definitely won't, though. Definitely less clear what will happen in November but I like our chances.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Maskless experiment begins... mandate lifted in Nevada as of 1 Jun, nowhere near the 80% vaccination rate in SF. Will be watching see how things go this month.

Probably going to be fine, since most places will still require masks, many people will wear masks, and vaccination and infection rates are pretty high. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

 

[madodel]

Biden announces 'National Month of Action' -- that could include free beer -- to get more Americans vaccinated by July 4

Will all this get people off the fence and get vaccinated?

 

[bkp_duke]

Biden announces 'National Month of Action' -- that could include free beer -- to get more Americans vaccinated by July 4

Will all this get people off the fence and get vaccinated?

Many Homer Simpson types would do anything for Duff beer . . .

 

[JRP3]

More fun from China A man in China is found to have H10N3 bird flu, a reminder of a continued ‘concern for pandemic flu.’

The man began feeling feverish at the end of April and was hospitalized on April 28, the Chinese government statement said. On May 28, genome sequencing by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention determined that he had been infected with H10N3.

The government announcement did not say how the man had been infected, and the W.H.O. said the source of infection was still unknown. The man’s condition has stabilized, and he is ready to be discharged, the government said.

Professor MacIntyre said that usually the people infected by avian viruses are those who are in prolonged close contact with the birds, such as poultry handlers.

 

[wdolson]

Biden announces 'National Month of Action' -- that could include free beer -- to get more Americans vaccinated by July 4

Will all this get people off the fence and get vaccinated?

I heard last night Anheiser Busch wanted to give every American adult a free Budweiser when we met the 70% vaccinated point. I mentioned to my partner that that would be an incentive not to get vaccinated for us. She replied that it could be used for slug traps. "Get vaccinated and get free slug bait!"

More fun from China A man in China is found to have H10N3 bird flu, a reminder of a continued ‘concern for pandemic flu.’

A few things we have learned from COVID over the last year:

1) When people are masking and doing social distancing cold and flu don't have a chance to circulate (possibly COVID is much more transmissible because it still got around)
2) The flu is not as deadly as COVID
3) If people mask up and social distance in a flu pandemic, we will probably be OK
4) A large minority of the population are idiots who won't follow guidance

People have been fearing another flu like the 1918 flu breaking out for years. The 1918 flu pandemic was very bad, the death toll was on par with COVID. However COVID did what it did with 100 years of medical advancement over 1918. What killed people in the flu pandemic were mostly secondary infections like pneumonia that took hold because the flu weakened them. That's what attributes to most flu deaths today, plus most modern flu deaths are people who already have compromised health like being very elderly.

Modern medicine is very good at preventing the secondary infections that killed people in 1918, or if not able to prevent them, effectively nurse them through the infection. As a result, we've been well prepared for another bad flu virus for many years. COVID caught us flat footed because it was more lethal, more easily transmitted, it kills outright more than the flu, and we had no nursing techniques ready when it hit.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Small study
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination responses in untreated, conventionally treated and anticytokine-treated patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases | Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases
or
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination responses in untreated, conventionally treated and anticytokine-treated patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases

about vaccine response of people with immune-mediated inflammatory disease (IMID)

"Key messages
What is already known about this subject?
- While it is known that SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is effective in the general population, virtually no data on the efficacy and safety of the vaccine in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases exist at the moment. Most importantly, it is not known whether the disease itself or the respective immune-modulatory therapy may affect the immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

What does this study add?
- The study shows that one out of 10 patients with an immune-mediated inflammatory disease fails to develop neutralizing antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, while it is only 1 out of 100 in healthy controls.
- Decreased immune response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is immanent to the presence of an immune-mediated inflammatory disease but not related to the individual immune-modulatory treatments.

How might this impact on clinical practice or future developments?
- These data suggest that humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination need to be assessed in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases in order to ascertain protective immunity."

Some articles referencing the study:
Immune Disorders May Dampen COVID-19 Vaccine Response
Patients Taking Methotrexate Respond Less Well to COVID-19 Vaccine
Patients Taking Anti-Inflammatory Drugs Respond Less Well to COVID-19 Vaccine

 

[eevee-fan]

Google News - <!-- "> '> --><title>

news.google.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

B.1.617.2 update, with up-to-date data.

I think that this data could still be a bit obfuscated by the way it is gathered, but clearly it is quite contagious, and has immune escape. But (2-dose) vaccines remain extremely effective. We really need to stop spread, with vaccination, and avoid further variants. Seems like those variant-based boosters will be needed around the early fall...it sounds like the Moderna one may not be well targeted to this particular escape variant, though testing will be needed to see, I suspect.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400841349021134850

Topic of matching of boosters, might not need a new version...:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400873112191655937

 

[uujjj2]

Not sure if this has been posted.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1400178343123853321

The basic finding seems to be that a dose of AstraZeneca followed by a dose of Pfizer is as good if not slightly better than 2 doses of Pfizer.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Hmm...makes me want to go out and get all the vaccines.

 

[eevee-fan]

Hmm...makes me want to go out and get all the vaccines.

Easier to just go around and give everyone deep kisses. This way, you can get immunized against new variants too.

 

[uujjj2]

In places like the UK, where their supply was like 50/50 AstraZeneca and Pfizer/Biontech, the 1 AZ + 1 BNT would have given better protection than half the population with 2 AZ and half with 2 BNT. And it might be the way to go in places like India, where AZ doesn't give such great protection from the local variant, give people AZ as the 1st dose and BNT as the 2nd rather than just 2 AZ.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

In places like the UK, where their supply was like 50/50 AstraZeneca and Pfizer/Biontech, the 1 AZ + 1 BNT would have given better protection than half the population with 2 AZ and half with 2 BNT. And it might be the way to go in places like India, where AZ doesn't give such great protection from the local variant, give people AZ as the 1st dose and BNT as the 2nd rather than just 2 AZ.

Hindsight is 20/20 I guess. We need to make a strong push to get vaccination rates up higher in the parts of the US that are struggling. Could definitely see a resurgence in some communities, if the current characteristics of B.1.617.2 continue to verify. So frustrating. Awash in vaccine, yet people not making it a priority to get it, or are unable to access it, or are believing all the lies. Gotta push hard. Maybe we could also make a push to boost J&J recipients with mRNA. Seems like it probably couldn't hurt.

Somehow the number of people who say they've been vaccinated is going down. Short memories I guess. NO responses in an uptrend. Guess it is within the margin of error.

 

[madodel]

Statement from CDC Director Rochelle P. Walensky, MD, MPH

For Immediate Release: Friday, June 4, 2021
Contact: Media Relations
(404) 639-3286

On May 12, 2021, CDC recommended use of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in people aged 12 years and up based on the safety and efficacy of the vaccine in adolescents following clinical trials. At the time, there was a growing body of evidence that demonstrated the severe health impacts of COVID-19 on adolescents.

Today’s MMWR presents additional data reporting the trends in hospitalizations among adolescents with COVID-19. I am deeply concerned by the numbers of hospitalized adolescents and saddened to see the number of adolescents who required treatment in intensive care units or mechanical ventilation.
Much of this suffering can be prevented.

Until they are fully vaccinated, adolescents should continue to wear masks and take precautions when around others who are not vaccinated to protect themselves, and their family, friends, and community. I ask parents, relatives and close friends to join me and talk with teens about the importance of these prevention strategies and to encourage them to get vaccinated. If parents or their teenagers have questions or concerns, I suggest they talk with their adolescent’s healthcare provider, local health department or neighborhood pharmacist.

Vaccination is our way out of this pandemic. I continue to see promising signs in CDC data that we are nearing the end of this pandemic in this country; however, we all have to do our part and get vaccinated to cross the finish line.

 

[uujjj2]

Hindsight is 20/20 I guess. We need to make a strong push to get vaccination rates up higher in the parts of the US that are struggling. Could definitely see a resurgence in some communities, if the current characteristics of B.1.617.2 continue to verify. So frustrating. Awash in vaccine, yet people not making it a priority to get it, or are unable to access it, or are believing all the lies. Gotta push hard. Maybe we could also make a push to boost J&J recipients with mRNA. Seems like it probably couldn't hurt.

Somehow the number of people who say they've been vaccinated is going down. Short memories I guess. NO responses in an uptrend. Guess it is within the margin of error.

View attachment 669693

Just a thought: the vaccination drive could be really useful for the polling industry. It can be a unique opportunity to tune their polling methodology. Because of detailed reporting of vaccine numbers, the ground truth is known nearly in real time. Pollsters can use the data to identify exactly where, why, and by how much their polling is off.

 

[FlatSix911]

This is probably headed to about 250 per day by mid-June based on current case levels and current CFR. (Note how the mirroring of cases and deaths has started to fail as older people are taken out of the vulnerable pool - there was no bump in deaths associated with the last bump in cases - CFR is dropping.) And if case levels continue to drop it will go below 200 a day.
I guess it depends what you mean. Roughly, I'd expect we'll hit some semi-steady state of about 50-100 deaths a day this summer (maybe lower if vaccination efforts continue vigorously beyond the current July 4th goal).

Could the number of deaths quadruple to 200-400 per day in the fall? Maybe. Does that count as a wave? I think so. I think anything higher than that would require a variant with substantial vaccine escape.

However, I think it's more likely that the deaths drop even lower than that 50-100 death per day number as the summer comes to an end, and the virus will not resurge in any significant way in the fall. I think I would go with that if I were forced to pick. With vaccine escape, I'd be wrong, of course. That's what is going to determine what happens. Nothing else - I don't think seasonality alone will be able to defeat the vaccine, because it is awesome. I don't think an increase from 50 deaths per day to 100 deaths per day counts as a wave, and I think it's more likely we'd see something like that at worst.

I definitely think we will stay below 700k total deaths by the end of 2021. I hope I'm right!


If last year is a guide we should start seeing a rise in deaths at end of June. We definitely won't, though. Definitely less clear what will happen in November but I like our chances.

The US is currently reporting 346 deaths per day (541 estimated) and is headed to less than 100 by August 31, 2021. IHME | COVID-19 Projections