Coronavirus

[bkp_duke]

Facts are facts. They are not political. Masks work. Distance works. Vaccines work. It is not our current resident of the WH that politicized this. It was/is politicians building up their campaign funds by demonizing anything said by a president not named Trump. You have the right to your opinion but facts remain facts.

While I agree in principle, just to point out that the current administration cannot be trusted either, I point to this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-trump-coronavirus-vaccine/2020/09/16/2ffbea6a-f831-11ea-a275-1a2c2d36e1f1_story.html

Basically, Biden STRONGLY downplayed the vaccine that was essentially built by the Trump Administration's Operation Warp Speed.

He's now mandating that everyone he can require, get the same vaccine.


You do see how a lot of people don't trust this administration on this issue, for the exact above reason?

And literally, I would be hard-pressed to pick a further left-leaning MSM publication from which to pull the above information . . .

 

[LightngMcQueen]

Snipped the irrelevant BS out of your response, all that is important is this above

Specifically, the "goal posts keep moving" because the R value changed. NOT the logic in how the message is determined, but the actual R VALUE.

The MESSAGE is changing because the MATH is changing. If the R value was not higher with Delta, then the % vaccinated to get to herd immunity would not change. Simple as that.

Which we knew that will happen because we all knew coronaviruses mutate rather readily. It was explained few hours ago. Of course vaccination and treatment applied selective evolutionary pressure and mutations with lower R value did not propagate why those with higher did. This was all expected.

All I am saying that this situation was entirely predictable as the most likely outcome before even the vaccination was rolled out.

 

[bkp_duke]

Which we knew that will happen because we all knew coronaviruses mutate rather readily. It was explained few hours ago.

All I am saying that this outcome was entirely predictable as the most likely outcome before the vaccination was rolled out.

Did you not read what I previously wrote? Coronaviruses mutate relatively SLOWLY, not rapidly. It's ONLY because we have so many willing hosts for this virus to replicate in that we are cranking through viral generations quickly.

If, theoretically, everyone got the vaccine say 2 months ago, without exception, this would be over. Period, no possible argument.

EDIT - quoting myself, you should read this (and yes, I have a Ph.D. in molecular biology and know this as FACT):

Coronavirus

I fully agree that this low level of vaccine efficacy was predictable... even before COVID19, coronavirus in general was always very expensive to economy and there were many attempts to develop vaccine that did not really pan out. (I used to get cold 4 times a year losing lots of billable...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[LightngMcQueen]

Did you not read what I previously wrote? Coronaviruses mutate relatively SLOWLY, not rapidly. It's ONLY because we have so many willing hosts for this virus to replicate in that we are cranking through viral generations quickly.

I did read it, but coronavirus did not read it and mutated anyway as I think is evidenced by reality that R value changed.

The idea that everything would have worked as promised by politicians if only not for those 'covidiots' is disingenuous ... yes the trajectory might have changed but we would still be at the same end situation:
I am not sure if we can blame people in Soweto township (or nearby) for not getting all vaccinated at once and letting new resistant variant to emerge.

The new variants will emerge and by the nature of evolution they will be more effective in surviving, although most likely less dangerous as hospitalization significantly cuts variant's propagation.

 

[bkp_duke]

I did read it, but coronavirus did not read it and mutated anyway as I think is evidenced by reality that R value changed.

The idea that everything would have worked if only not for those 'covidiots' is disingenuous ... yes the trajectory might have changed but we would still be at the same end situation:
I am not sure if we can blame people in Soweto township (or nearby) for not getting all vaccinated at once and letting new resistant variant to emerge.

The new variants will emerge and by the nature of evolution they will be more effective.

(facepalm)

OK, TWO VARIABLES are what contribute to the rate of appearances of new variants (which is what you are REALLY talking about, even if you don't know or understand that).

1) inherent mutation rate during DNA replication - this is LOW in Coronaviruses (much lower than Influenza) because there is a portion of the polymerase that is what is called a "proofreading" domain. Literally, if the DNA is mis-copied it causes things
2) number of infected people - this is VERY VERY HIGH. Think of it as the number of petri dishes actively cranking out virus.

#2 is overwhelming #1 in order to produce new variants. If everyone were vaccinated, then #2 would be VERY low, and the overall appearance of new variants would be . . . near zero.


Let's call it semantics, but you are saying #1 is high, which is patently FALSE. What you are trying to say is that the appearance of new variants is high (agreed), but that is NOT the same as the mutation rate.


This is a great "review" article:

The coronavirus is mutating — does it matter?

Different SARS-CoV-2 strains haven’t yet had a major impact on the course of the pandemic, but they might in future.

www.nature.com

 

[scottf200]

Basically, Biden STRONGLY downplayed the vaccine that was essentially built by the Trump Administration's Operation Warp Speed.

Re: built -- As you likely know ... OWS helped with $ for deliveries not the research and development of the Pfizer vaccine.

Operation Warp Speed and COVID-19 vaccines

President Donald Trump says he and his administration’s Operation Warp Speed deserve credit for the promising news from

www.politifact.com

The U.S. government did not fund the companies’ [Pfizer] research and development.

Pfizer chose to risk its own money on vaccine research and not take federal funding in order to avoid bureaucracy and politics, Pfizer’s CEO Albert Bourla said. He said its investment so far was at least $1.5 billion.

 

[bkp_duke]

Re: built -- As you likely know ... OWS helped with $ for deliveries not the research and development of the Pfizer vaccine.

Operation Warp Speed and COVID-19 vaccines

President Donald Trump says he and his administration’s Operation Warp Speed deserve credit for the promising news from

www.politifact.com

Correct. The bulk of research was done on these vaccines before SARS-Cov-2 even appeared (it was done for the original SARS).

What OWS did help with, in addition to logistics, was the Phase 2/3 clinical trials for these vaccines.

Regardless, my original point about who criticized and is now pimping out said vaccine, still stands.

 

[JRP3]

Basically, Biden STRONGLY downplayed the vaccine that was essentially built by the Trump Administration's Operation Warp Speed.

Biden said Americans should trust a coronavirus vaccine developed under the Trump administration only if the president gives “honest answers” to questions about its safety, effectiveness and equitable distribution. “I trust vaccines. I trust scientists. But I don’t trust Donald Trump,” Biden said. “And at this point, the American people can’t, either.”

That was a completely reasonable statement considering the insanity that came out of the administration, including but not limited to the idea of ingesting cleaning products, which some people actually took as advice and tried.

 

[JRP3]

This sounds a bit concerning:

Additionally, the FDA flagged a concern that Merck’s drug led to small changes in the coronavirus’ signature spike protein, which it uses to penetrate human cells. Theoretically, FDA cautioned, those changes could lead to dangerous new variants.

FDA: Merck COVID pill effective, experts will review safety

U.S. health officials say Merck's experimental COVID-19 pill is effective but they raised questions about its safety during pregnancy.

apnews.com

 

[wdolson]

Snipped the irrelevant BS out of your response, all that is important is this above

Specifically, the "goal posts keep moving" because the R value changed. NOT the logic in how the message is determined, but the actual R VALUE.

The MESSAGE is changing because the MATH is changing. If the R value was not higher with Delta, then the % vaccinated to get to herd immunity would not change. Simple as that.

I put together this a few months ago. If the R value is high enough, even a 90% effective vaccine won't get you there. The goal posts moved, but it wasn't by humans, it was by the virus.

Kind of an ignorant thing to say but okay. I actually don't watch the news for this exact reason. The virus isn't deadly or bad as the media makes it seem for healthy individuals. No one should be FORCED to inject anything into their bodies. This whole BS about "even if you don't do it to save you, do it to save others" is just that...BS.

The president and his overreach with this mandate nonsense is unconstitutional and just plain wrong. The fact that what's supposed to be a health and medical issue which is obviously mainly a political issue is also wrong. Stay in your lane, run the country which is your primary role and leave the medicine side of things to the professionals. When doctors and nurses are not willing to get something injected in them and are willingly leaving their careers, something is wrong with that. Agree or disagree. It's one extreme or the other. The way this pandemic is being managed by the the clowns in office is only creating a bigger divide in this country.

You need to read up on the history of governmental powers in times of disease outbreaks. The government has far reaching powers to preserve public health and the Supreme Court has upheld it as constitutional. There are things the government hasn't done that it has the power to do.

Typhoid Mary and leper patients were isolated from the rest of the population for the rest of their lives.

While I agree in principle, just to point out that the current administration cannot be trusted either, I point to this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-trump-coronavirus-vaccine/2020/09/16/2ffbea6a-f831-11ea-a275-1a2c2d36e1f1_story.html

Basically, Biden STRONGLY downplayed the vaccine that was essentially built by the Trump Administration's Operation Warp Speed.

He's now mandating that everyone he can require, get the same vaccine.


You do see how a lot of people don't trust this administration on this issue, for the exact above reason?

And literally, I would be hard-pressed to pick a further left-leaning MSM publication from which to pull the above information . . .

Back when Biden made those comments (last summer) Donald Trump was making noises that he would override the FDA in some steps of the vaccine approval process. In the end he allowed the FDA to proceed with their own procedure
Trump claims White House can overrule FDA's attempt to toughen guidelines for coronavirus vaccine

I would have been skeptical of any drug that was authorized via executive order rather than the correct approval process. Polls showed quite a few Americans would have been too.

Did you not read what I previously wrote? Coronaviruses mutate relatively SLOWLY, not rapidly. It's ONLY because we have so many willing hosts for this virus to replicate in that we are cranking through viral generations quickly.

If, theoretically, everyone got the vaccine say 2 months ago, without exception, this would be over. Period, no possible argument.

EDIT - quoting myself, you should read this (and yes, I have a Ph.D. in molecular biology and know this as FACT):

Coronavirus

I fully agree that this low level of vaccine efficacy was predictable... even before COVID19, coronavirus in general was always very expensive to economy and there were many attempts to develop vaccine that did not really pan out. (I used to get cold 4 times a year losing lots of billable...

teslamotorsclub.com

The problem is while the developed countries have plenty of vaccine to go around, it's just now becoming available in the remotest parts of the world. Delta evolved in India when the US and other developed countries were still struggling with vaccine supply in their own countries and only a trickle was available in India. Omicron evolved somewhere in Africa (possibly South Africa, but it may have been circulating in less developed parts of Africa and just reaches South Africa recently).

South Africa is only 35% vaccinated, but it's among the best in sub-Saharan Africa. The vaccination rate is so low because they have struggled to get the vaccine. And many developing countries have only been able to get the poorer quality vaccines from Russia and China. Australia is making the Astra Zenneca vaccine, but Australians don't want it (opting for an mRNA vaccine instead) so they are exporting almost everything they make to the developing world.

Like with everything else, the developing world is getting the cast offs the developed world doesn't want.

Africa is a vast petri dish for a virus to mutate and get stronger. It has a population over 1.3 billion (4X the US) and not enough vaccine. Most of the vaccines available are lower quality than what is available in the developed world.

Vaccinating every idiot in the US and the rest of the developed world would have helped, but the reality is that until we can get everybody in the world vaccinated with the best vaccines available, we're not going to reach herd immunity any time soon.

With modern global travel a disease like this is a global problem. Getting Africa, South America, South Asia, etc. vaccinated is just as important as getting Alabama vaccinated.

 

[SO16]

Kind of an ignorant thing to say but okay. I actually don't watch the news for this exact reason. The virus isn't deadly or bad as the media makes it seem for healthy individuals. No one should be FORCED to inject anything into their bodies. This whole BS about "even if you don't do it to save you, do it to save others" is just that...BS.

The president and his overreach with this mandate nonsense is unconstitutional and just plain wrong. The fact that what's supposed to be a health and medical issue which is obviously mainly a political issue is also wrong. Stay in your lane, run the country which is your primary role and leave the medicine side of things to the professionals. When doctors and nurses are not willing to get something injected in them and are willingly leaving their careers, something is wrong with that. Agree or disagree. It's one extreme or the other. The way this pandemic is being managed by the the clowns in office is only creating a bigger divide in this country.

As stated earlier, a big issue is that Covid patients take up RESOURCES. Just because you might be “younger and healthier”, doesn’t make you immune to other things like car accidents. When resources are consumed by Covid, you have less access to healthcare for other issues.

I don’t know about you but I’d rather get this pandemic over soon rather than later. It isnt like people are being asked to amputate their left arm.

And yes, people are forced to be vaccinated for many things over the years like polio in order to attend school. It isn’t like a vaccinations are a brand new concept.

 

[JRP3]

Had my Moderna booster yesterday, slightly sore arm today, not as bad as previous shots, and maybe feel a bit tired but that could be placebo effect.

 

[HG Wells]

Too early to make a decision but some random thoughts.

If, and I do mean IF it turns out that a previous covid infection provides significant protection to the new variant compared to the vaccine (due to the spike protean changes) .

Should one try to catch the Delta variant at 3,4,5 or 6 weeks after getting the existing booster shot ?

Not enough information at this point. Probably would have enough info after two more months.

 

[CSFTN]

Kind of an ignorant thing to say but okay. I actually don't watch the news for this exact reason. The virus isn't deadly or bad as the media makes it seem for healthy individuals. No one should be FORCED to inject anything into their bodies. This whole BS about "even if you don't do it to save you, do it to save others" is just that...BS.

The president and his overreach with this mandate nonsense is unconstitutional and just plain wrong. The fact that what's supposed to be a health and medical issue which is obviously mainly a political issue is also wrong. Stay in your lane, run the country which is your primary role and leave the medicine side of things to the professionals. When doctors and nurses are not willing to get something injected in them and are willingly leaving their careers, something is wrong with that. Agree or disagree. It's one extreme or the other. The way this pandemic is being managed by the the clowns in office is only creating a bigger divide in this country.

It's not the clowns in office. It's the clowns amongst the public who seek out any excuse possible in order to avoid the vaccine who are responsible for the ongoing pandemic

 

[CSFTN]

While I agree in principle, just to point out that the current administration cannot be trusted either, I point to this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-trump-coronavirus-vaccine/2020/09/16/2ffbea6a-f831-11ea-a275-1a2c2d36e1f1_story.html

Basically, Biden STRONGLY downplayed the vaccine that was essentially built by the Trump Administration's Operation Warp Speed.

He's now mandating that everyone he can require, get the same vaccine.


You do see how a lot of people don't trust this administration on this issue, for the exact above reason?

And literally, I would be hard-pressed to pick a further left-leaning MSM publication from which to pull the above information . . .

So what? At that point in time, he didn't know better. Now he does. You're grasping for straws

 

[scottf200]

South Africa is only 35% vaccinated, but it's among the best in sub-Saharan Africa. The vaccination rate is so low because they have struggled to get the vaccine. And many developing countries have only been able to get the poorer quality vaccines from Russia and China. Australia is making the Astra Zenneca vaccine, but Australians don't want it (opting for an mRNA vaccine instead) so they are exporting almost everything they make to the developing world.

Like with everything else, the developing world is getting the cast offs the developed world doesn't want.

Africa is a vast petri dish for a virus to mutate and get stronger. It has a population over 1.3 billion (4X the US) and not enough vaccine. Most of the vaccines available are lower quality than what is available in the developed world.

Vaccinating every idiot in the US and the rest of the developed world would have helped, but the reality is that until we can get everybody in the world vaccinated with the best vaccines available, we're not going to reach herd immunity any time soon.

With modern global travel a disease like this is a global problem. Getting Africa, South America, South Asia, etc. vaccinated is just as important as getting Alabama vaccinated.

Re: The vaccination rate is so low because they have struggled to get the vaccine.
Re: Most of the vaccines available are lower quality than what is available in the developed world.
That doesn't appear to be the case. They've now have so many extra JnJ and Pfizer they had to stop the supply which is far outweighing the demand.

EXCLUSIVE South Africa delays COVID vaccine deliveries as inoculations slow

South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.

www.reuters.com

JOHANNESBURG, Nov 24 (Reuters) - South Africa has asked Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Pfizer (PFE.N) to delay delivery of COVID-19 vaccines because it now has too much stock, health ministry officials said, as vaccine hesitancy slows an inoculation campaign.
_ About 35% of South Africans are fully vaccinated, higher than in most other African nations, but half the government's year-end target. It has averaged 106,000 doses a day in the past 15 days in a nation of 60 million people.
_ Earlier this year the programme was slowed by insufficient doses. Now deliveries have been delayed due to oversupply, making the country an outlier in the continent where most are still starved of vaccines.
_ Nicholas Crisp, deputy director-general of the Health Department, told Reuters that South Africa had 16.8 million doses in stock and said deliveries had been deferred.
_ "We have 158 days' stock in the country at current use," a spokesman for the Health Ministry said. "We have deferred some deliveries."

 

[msm859]

Kind of an ignorant thing to say but okay. I actually don't watch the news for this exact reason. The virus isn't deadly or bad as the media makes it seem for healthy individuals. No one should be FORCED to inject anything into their bodies. This whole BS about "even if you don't do it to save you, do it to save others" is just that...BS.

The president and his overreach with this mandate nonsense is unconstitutional and just plain wrong. The fact that what's supposed to be a health and medical issue which is obviously mainly a political issue is also wrong. Stay in your lane, run the country which is your primary role and leave the medicine side of things to the professionals. When doctors and nurses are not willing to get something injected in them and are willingly leaving their careers, something is wrong with that. Agree or disagree. It's one extreme or the other. The way this pandemic is being managed by the the clowns in office is only creating a bigger divide in this country.

What law school did you go to? Because you must have slept through your Constitutional Law class. Mandates for vaccines as repeatedly been ruled as constitutional - by the United States Supreme Court. Mandating vaccines is not new. George Washington mandated all his troops get vaccinated against smallpox in 1777. This is NOT a political issue - except for the GOP - who have always used wedge issues to gain/keep power. Abortion, guns and gays. The "medical" and "science" is unequivocal. Everyone needs to get vaccinated. It is sad that we have to talk about "mandates", but that is ONLY because of misinformation promulgated by ONE side. As to DOCTORS - OVER 96% ARE VACCINATED. AMA: Time to mandate COVID-19 vaccination is now. Biden is not overreaching - he should be tougher. Vaccines should be mandated to fly, go on a train, bus, concerts, sporting events etc. Part of living in a civilized society is having a social compact. Sometimes you have to do things for the greater good.

 

[TEG]

MSN

 

[dhanson865]

61 travellers from South Africa in Netherlands positive for COVID-19 -authorities

Dutch health authorities said that 61 people who arrived in Amsterdam on two flights from South Africa on Friday tested positive for COVID-19, and they were conducting further testing early Saturday to see if any of the infections are with the recently discovered Omicron coronavirus variant.

www.reuters.com

 

[EVNow]

1) inherent mutation rate during DNA replication - this is LOW in Coronaviruses (much lower than Influenza) because there is a portion of the polymerase that is what is called a "proofreading" domain. Literally, if the DNA is mis-copied it causes things
2) number of infected people - this is VERY VERY HIGH. Think of it as the number of petri dishes actively cranking out virus.

#2 is overwhelming #1 in order to produce new variants. If everyone were vaccinated, then #2 would be VERY low, and the overall appearance of new variants would be . . . near zero

Yes - something the “natural herd immunity” crowd never considered.

One interesting aspect, though, is the number of variants that have emerged from smaller countries like UK and SA. Nothing of interest from US, where one would think many variants are more likely to come from, given the number of cases. Ofcourse with just half a dozen variants of concern, a small sample size.