Coronavirus

[EVNow]

I’ve an idea.

Vaccines should be formulated as viruses that can spread. So, instead of vaccinating everyone, you let some of them get it through infection. We won’t have to deal with unvaccinated.

Since most anti-vaxxers are also anti-maskers, they will be in a conundrum. Will they double mask with N95 to prevent vaccination ?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Given underascertainment, seems like 1/3 people in the US could get this in a month (20 million cases, 110 million infections).re truly susceptible.

I don't think we under-count nearly that much these days. At least not until we run out of tests. There are some crazy numbers in high-exposure groups, though. 32% of NYC EMTs out sick. Roughly 1/3rd of NBA referees have tested positive. I didn't really think we'd get to 1m/day average, now it seems inevitable.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I don't think we under-count nearly that much these days.

It’s worth considering that with this sort of spread and many people vaccinated and boosted and experiencing mild symptoms, and with the “wide” “availability” of rapid tests, that many infections will go untested - possibly more so than the 2 in 3 we might have been at previously. I’ve seen estimates that 4 in 5 infections might now go untested. Kind of a WAG for sure.

Hard to say though, for sure.

 

[JRP3]

I'd assume most asymptomatic cases don't even get tested, and how many home tested positives report their results?

 

[dhanson865]

Knox County reports 1,000 residents dead from COVID-19 (wate.com)

The novel coronavirus has reached a milestone as the total number of deaths from the virus in Knox County reaches 1,000, according to data kept by the Knox County Health Department.

 

[scottf200]

State level:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476767096281485320

County level:

 

[Tiger]

I’ve an idea.

Vaccines should be formulated as viruses that can spread. So, instead of vaccinating everyone, you let some of them get it through infection. We won’t have to deal with unvaccinated.

Since most anti-vaxxers are also anti-maskers, they will be in a conundrum. Will they double mask with N95 to prevent vaccination ?

Maybe someone engineered something in India, Japan, or Omicron ... or Wuhan

 

[lascavarian]

Maybe someone engineered something in India, Japan, or Omicron ... or Wuhan

Or maybe it is more of a movie plot to sell zombie movies

 

[daniel]

I’ve an idea.

Vaccines should be formulated as viruses that can spread. So, instead of vaccinating everyone, you let some of them get it through infection. We won’t have to deal with unvaccinated.

Since most anti-vaxxers are also anti-maskers, they will be in a conundrum. Will they double mask with N95 to prevent vaccination ?

I don't think that's a new idea. I think the only reason we don't have that is because nobody has yet figured out how. It needs to be a highly-contagious virus that can evade all the body's natural defenses, produces immunity against an entirely different virus, and has few or no undesirable symptoms. And it has to quickly infect enough people to achieve herd immunity against the target disease and remain effective as the target virus mutates.

OTOH, if we distributed free vaccine-dart guns and gave people a dollar (or the equivalent in the local currency) for every unvaccinated person you darted...

 

[EVNow]

I don't think that's a new idea. I think the only reason we don't have that is because nobody has yet figured out how. It needs to be a highly-contagious virus that can evade all the body's natural defenses, produces immunity against an entirely different virus, and has few or no undesirable symptoms. And it has to quickly infect enough people to achieve herd immunity against the target disease and remain effective as the target virus mutates.

In other words, like Omicron but much milder.

It now seems likely that almost all unvaccinated / previously not infected people will get Omicron. We would have near 100% immunization before long.

We have to just hope there isn’t another mutation on the way … that would evade omicron induced immunity.

 

[scottf200]

We have to just hope there isn’t another mutation on the way … that would evade omicron induced immunity.

That is certainly the hope. With both Delta and Omicron going strong it is interesting to read a little about "co-infection" where people can get both. This is one way that mutations happen as we know from past discussions.
G search: co-infection delta omicron - Google Search
Example article: Yes, you can be infected with the delta and omicron coronavirus variants at the same time

This is not unique to the coronavirus. In fact, one way viruses can mutate is when two different strains co-infect the same host cell in a process called viral recombination, according to a medical microbiology textbook.
Two strains of the virus can also infect you without sharing the same cells. French researchers from the Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health found in a study published July 2020 that two variants of the virus that causes COVID-19 existed separately in patients’ upper and lower respiratory tracts.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), viruses constantly change through mutation, and not all variants can be harmful or consistent. “Sometimes they disappear,” the website said.

 

[Jeff N]

There is a good new overview in the NYT of what is known about how Omicron’s cell infectivity and pathology differ from previous variants.

There are 2 primary mechanisms for how the virus infects cells. In one pathway the virion (virus particle) fully enters the cell (endosomal fusion) and then releases its RNA triggered by PH changes. This is how it infects cells in the upper respiratory areas. In the other pathway, used in lung tissues, a protein on the surface of some cells called TMPRSS2 triggers the virus to release its RNA into a partial opening of the cell at the surface.

It’s looking like the earlier variants were especially good at using the TMPRSS2 mechanism which explains the severe lung damage from the virus and the resulting exaggerated immune response while Omicron appears to be poor at using TMPRSS2 but especially good at using the upper respiratory pathway.

Studies Suggest Why Omicron Is Less Severe: It Spares the Lungs

Compared with earlier variants, Omicron may cause less damage to the lungs, new animal research suggests.

www.nytimes.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476634150975201283

 

[daniel]

In other words, like Omicron but much milder.

It now seems likely that almost all unvaccinated / previously not infected people will get Omicron. We would have near 100% immunization before long.

We have to just hope there isn’t another mutation on the way … that would evade omicron induced immunity.

I think it's reasonable to assume that there will continue to be new variants unless and until SARS-CoV-2 goes away completely, which is probably impossible since there are many animal reservoirs. The virus mutates a lot and natural selection does the rest.

 

[nwdiver]

OTOH, if we distributed free vaccine-dart guns and gave people a dollar (or the equivalent in the local currency) for every unvaccinated person you darted...

Maybe that can be in Idiocracy 2.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

State level:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476767096281485320

County level:

I have not read their methodology but I hope they aren’t using past case to hospitalization ratios to predict capacity issues. Otherwise this is all going to be way off and way too pessimistic.

 

[scottf200]

I have not read their methodology but I hope they aren’t using past case to hospitalization ratios to predict capacity issues. Otherwise this is all going to be way off and way too pessimistic.

FYI, there is an article at the bottom of their page. This section gives their idea: Here’s what we need to do to avoid the worst-case scenario, starting now.

Jeremy Faust

Jeremy Faust. 31,444 likes · 14 talking about this. An emergency room doctor with a serious passion for breaking down medical news and research so that everyone understands what's really going on and...

insidemedicine.bulletin.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

FYI, there is an article at the bottom of their page. This section gives their idea: Here’s what we need to do to avoid the worst-case scenario, starting now.

Jeremy Faust

Jeremy Faust. 31,444 likes · 14 talking about this. An emergency room doctor with a serious passion for breaking down medical news and research so that everyone understands what's really going on and...

insidemedicine.bulletin.com

Yes, unclear what their assumptions are. It looks to me like you need something like (very roughly) 4-5x as many infections to get a similar number of hospitalizations as we did with Delta, whatever the reasons. And importantly, it is starting to look like those are less severe hospitalizations requiring less ventilation - possibly even for the unvaccinated (no clear data yet on that I would say).

So without knowing those conversions it is hard to know exactly what the circuit breaker should be set to.

 

[winfield100]

happy new year to all,
and a bit of light reading for the conspiracy folks from James Tiptree, Jr.
(nom de plume of Alice Shelton of the CIA folks)
(from sometime after 1960 and before 1987)
(all her science fiction was quite quite dark)

The Last Flight of Doctor Ain - Lightspeed Magazine

Dr. Ain was recognized on the Omaha-Chicago flight. A biologist colleague from Pasadena came out of the toilet and saw Ain in an aisle seat. Five years before, this man had been jealous of Ain’s huge grants. Now he nodded coldly and was surprised at the intensity of Ain’s response. He almost...

www.lightspeedmagazine.com

 

[dhanson865]

It's official now, more Covid 19 deaths in the US in 2021 than there were in 2020. (not the final numbers for 2021 because they will revise, but at least it now covers the entire year).

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

National Center for Health Statistics

www.cdc.gov

 

[wdolson]

That is certainly the hope. With both Delta and Omicron going strong it is interesting to read a little about "co-infection" where people can get both. This is one way that mutations happen as we know from past discussions.
G search: co-infection delta omicron - Google Search
Example article: Yes, you can be infected with the delta and omicron coronavirus variants at the same time

I have read that with many viruses new variants can come about when two viruses mix in the same organism. I know SARS-COV2 has self correcting mechanisms, but a variant as contagious as Omicron but as serious as Delta (it does look right now like Omicron is milder) could get bad.