Coronavirus

[EVNow]

It is interesting that India seems to have had less Omicros than Delta. May be large number of Delta infections helped reduce omicron.

OTOH, France got absolutely pulverized by Omicron. 20x more than Delta. 400k a day max, which would be like 2 Million a day in US.

 

[_Redshift_]

Physician here. "Lockdowns" were not science-based, and any physician who recommends isolating the healthy would fail his boards. But we need real physicians in gov't, not academics turned politician. Recent Hopkins study showed minimal benefit of lockdowns (2%, like this was epidemiologic news?), not addressing the risk:benefit and damage to the economy and childrens' mental health. The "vulnerable" are the most at-risk with *any* respiratory infection, including flu, bronchitis, etc. Who said anything about letting them die? Vaccinations and treatment should have been directed at them, not the general public. New (technically experimental and unproven) vaccines with a relatively novel delivery mechanism (never tested large scale) for the least vulnerable population (kids)? Board and ethics fail. Lying about initial availability of masks and their minimal effectiveness against an airborne virus 2 years into this? Malpractice and a medical ethics violation. My medical license would be suspended or revoked. This is the real science, not the garbage coming from the gov't. Any medical profession who actually earned their diploma and who had critical thinking skills could see this from a mile away. Some of us did, and actually took heat from our colleagues who bought into the psychosis. Worse, we again see 90 years later how easily a large public mass can be manipulated into believing almost anything, and how eager they are to give up their freedoms to the benevolent dictators/administrators/presidents/scientists, et. al. without question under threat of the literal or social "stick".

No, don't be done, stand and debate, it's fun! I can tell you I hold/held 2 board certs but let one lapse as I no longer practice that specialty. In that specialty, I spent years taking care of "at-risk" patients and also ran an ICU, so I am quite familiar with infectious disease standards of care and respiratory illnesses. We knew very early on that the virus was smaller than the pores thru the mask, and that masks are effective mostly against droplets. Studioes later, gov't is still demanding masks. Like I said, standards of care require isolating the sick, not the healthy, and preventive therapies, especially an untested one, should always be targeted to those most at-risk. mRNA vaccines have never been used large scale, but were used here for simplicity and expedience. I had the virus and got vaxxed. I got a second vax because I wanted to vacation with my family and the venues required us to be "vaxxed"--defined as vax x 2, which is exposure x 2. But, infection + vax X 1 is not considered "vaxxed", but meets the definition of exposure x 2. How stupid is this? Very stupid I assure you. Science? None. They turned off their brains. Where are the physician leaders who go along with this ascientific nonsense?

You did not answer my question. I pointed out a logical error in your central premise.

”How do you determine who is healthy or not , since many people showed no symptoms?“

 

[FloridaSun]

If you ignore Long Covid ...

We have to get back to normal. The main issue with COVID19 is that during the initial waves, there was a shortage of hospital beds at certain locations. With the most recent wave, we haven't seen that to the same extent that we have seen in prior waves. Vaccination rates are fairly high in the highest populated states and they are slowly increasing. Especially in the high risk demographis, we are looking at 75+% vaccination rates. Over the age of 65 I believe it's well over 80%.
While cases of long covid are unfortunate, they will continue to happen. We can't run around with masks indefinitely and/or place more restrictions on businesses that have been hurt already too much.
What do you suggest we should do to prevent long COVID and for how long?

 

[Daniel in SD]

LOL, are you really this clueless ? Daily covid deaths > 2,500 in US. How many get killed in accidents per day - 100 ?

I've returned to the COVID thread to argue with you about COVID. Our views on COVID may be closer than our views on FSD though.

You ignored my qualification of most people being vaccinated. How many vaccinated people will die this year from COVID in the US?

 

[FloridaSun]

It is interesting that India seems to have had less Omicros than Delta. May be large number of Delta infections helped reduce omicron.

View attachment 764068

OTOH, France got absolutely pulverized by Omicron. 20x more than Delta. 400k a day max, which would be like 2 Million a day in US.

View attachment 764070

Omicron is without a doubt the most infectious variant.. but fortunately also the least dangerous. Not sure if there were lock downs in france for previous waves?

 

[EVNow]

Florida's current reporting of deaths seems delayed, so currently it can't be compared. Or at least there appears no explanation why Florida would haved moved down so much.

Florida death rates look very suspect - compared to all other states, including Texas & California. It is showing 15 per day compared to 193 for Texas (with similar 65k peak cases, currently about 30k).

 

[EVNow]

I've returned to the COVID thread to argue with you about COVID. Our views on COVID may be closer than our views on FSD though.

You ignored my qualification of most people being vaccinated. How many vaccinated people will die this year from COVID in the US?

You are moving the target.

Your argument was people care about lives.

My argument is they actually don't, all that much, as evidenced by measures not taken to protect lives. just see for yourself - you want FSD Beta banned though it has not caused a single loss of life - while you aren't advocating completely lockdown because of 2,500 deaths a day.

 

[Daniel in SD]

You are moving the target.

Your argument was people care about lives.

My argument is they actually don't, all that much, as evidenced by measures not taken to protect lives. just see for yourself - you want FSD Beta banned though it has not caused a single loss of life - while you aren't advocating completely lockdown because of 2,500 deaths a day.

I guess I should have qualified it with most people then. Of course everyone has their own risk tolerance (not talking about anti-vaxxers, that's totally irrational).

What does completely locking down even mean? China is able to contain Omicron, barely, by locking down entire cities but I don't think it would be possible for an entire country because you still need some people who aren't locked in their houses to keep everyone alive. And what's the endgame? I sure hope they have started making their own mRNA vaccines for Omicron...
We could save a lot of lives by limiting all vehicles to 20mph but there would be downsides to that too.

I've never said I want FSD Beta banned. I've said that I think there should be disclosure of all collisions so someone other than Tesla can actually assess the safety. We should also have some of the liability put on Tesla to encourage them to keep it safe.

 

[2101Guy]

No, don't be done, stand and debate, it's fun! I can tell you I hold/held 2 board certs but let one lapse as I no longer practice that specialty. In that specialty, I spent years taking care of "at-risk" patients and also ran an ICU, so I am quite familiar with infectious disease standards of care and respiratory illnesses. We knew very early on that the virus was smaller than the pores thru the mask, and that masks are effective mostly against droplets. Studioes later, gov't is still demanding masks. Like I said, standards of care require isolating the sick, not the healthy, and preventive therapies, especially an untested one, should always be targeted to those most at-risk. mRNA vaccines have never been used large scale, but were used here for simplicity and expedience. I had the virus and got vaxxed. I got a second vax because I wanted to vacation with my family and the venues required us to be "vaxxed"--defined as vax x 2, which is exposure x 2. But, infection + vax X 1 is not considered "vaxxed", but meets the definition of exposure x 2. How stupid is this? Very stupid I assure you. Science? None. They turned off their brains. Where are the physician leaders who go along with this ascientific nonsense?

Question: I recall early on Fauci and others stating that the cloth masks (non N95) were really to protect others, not yourself. (But if EVERYONE wore them, then everyone is better protected). And that the studies (and visual infrared tests shown on TV) showed that mask (or face covering, whatever we want to call it then) would greatly reduce the DISTANCE those droplets could travel. So face coverings over mouth/nose COMBINED with at least 6 feet of distancing, were both effective (but not 100%..nothing is) measures at reducing (not preventing) the spread.

Are you saying all of that is false? Serious question

 

[golfcart]

You just piled up a bunch of strawmen yourself, completely free of facts.

Those are all facts. I challenge you to dispute any of them. They also demonstrate that your point about more restrictive policies saving lives is not particularly useful. If we all lived in bubbles like the kid on Seinfeld it would save tons of lives but people don’t want to live like that. It’s about trade offs, no response is perfect and not everyone values all the variables the same way.

 

[ohmman]

Moderator Note: Once more, this thread is turning away from productive discussion and headed towards arguments for the sake of arguing - with some posts admitting that outright. I have moved three posts away to politics quarantine, as the delicious siren song of ideology has begun to draw participants in.

A reminder that personal attacks and politics are not permitted at TMC, and for good measure we might all enjoy a peek at the Forum Rules.

Thanks for understanding!

 

[golfcart]

Florida is not doing “well”.

U.S. COVID death rate by state 2023 | Statista

As of March 2023, Arizona had the highest COVID death rate in the U.S., with 455 deaths per 100,000 population. Hawaii had the lowest death rate.

www.statista.com

Someone 85+ is 340x as likely to die from COVID as an 18-29 year old according to the CDC. The number is 25x for a 50-64 year old.

CDC risk by age

Raw numbers are not particularly useful because the risk from COVID varies tremendously by age. The median age in Florida is 42.4 while the median age in California is 37. Why would we compare raw numbers between states? I think it’s a poor metric when age adjusted numbers are available.

Median age by state

That’s why I look at age adjusted numbers and have posted them multiple times in this thread. Based on age adjusted numbers Florida’s death rate is 31st out of 50 states + DC. It’s not tops but it’s better than a lot of states with much stricter lockdowns, vaccine mandates, mask mandates, school closures, etc… so I say they are doing “well” but you are more than welcome to disagree as it is somewhat subjective.

 

[msm859]

Thank goodness my kids are in an online private school.

Why?

 

[SO16]

Someone 85+ is 340x as likely to die from COVID as an 18-29 year old according to the CDC. The number is 25x for a 50-64 year old.

CDC risk by age

Raw numbers are not particularly useful because the risk from COVID varies tremendously by age. The median age in Florida is 42.4 while the median age in California is 37. Why would we compare raw numbers between states? I think it’s a poor metric when age adjusted numbers are available.

Median age by state

That’s why I look at age adjusted numbers and have posted them multiple times in this thread. Based on age adjusted numbers Florida’s death rate is 31st out of 50 states + DC. It’s not tops but it’s better than a lot of states with much stricter lockdowns, vaccine mandates, mask mandates, school closures, etc… so I say they are doing “well” but you are more than welcome to disagree as it is somewhat subjective.

By that metric, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont should be doing much worse….no?

 

[golfcart]

By that metric, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont should be doing much worse….no?

Those states are doing tremendous by that metric and pretty much any other metric. Never said otherwise. That has nothing to do with Florida though.

 

[SO16]

Those states are doing tremendous by that metric and pretty much any other metric. Never said otherwise. That has nothing to do with Florida though.

Then I guess I don’t see the usefulness of that metric. Because even Delaware, Connecticut and PA (which are only slightly younger compared to FL) are doing comparatively better.

 

[AndrewTX]

Question: I recall early on Fauci and others stating that the cloth masks (non N95) were really to protect others, not yourself. (But if EVERYONE wore them, then everyone is better protected). And that the studies (and visual infrared tests shown on TV) showed that mask (or face covering, whatever we want to call it then) would greatly reduce the DISTANCE those droplets could travel. So face coverings over mouth/nose COMBINED with at least 6 feet of distancing, were both effective (but not 100%..nothing is) measures at reducing (not preventing) the spread.

Are you saying all of that is false? Serious question

You remember correctly and those things were/are not false, though Omicron has highlighted the need for higher quality masks.

 

[golfcart]

Then I guess I don’t see the usefulness of that metric. Because even Delaware, Connecticut and PA (which are only slightly younger compared to FL) are doing comparatively better.

There are 50 states plus DC. That means that the 26th ranked state would be in the middle in terms of age adjusted death rate. Florida is ranked 31st which puts them in the half of states that are better than median.

Age adjusted COVID death rate

Not great but better than most. Yet despite them being ranked in the better half of states they are the subject of the vast majority of COVID policy criticism in this thread (IMO for reasons I can’t talk about due to forum rules).

That is the only reason I’m talking about Florida. Because they get criticized like they have the age adjusted death rate of Texas or New York but are actually a lot closer to Connecticut or California. Plus they did it without mandates, lockdowns, school closures, or mass firings.

So every time I post this stuff to defend Florida against misinformation it turns into a circus and everyone forgets what was actually being talked about. Perhaps I’m just wasting my time.

 

[ohmman]

Perhaps I’m just wasting my time.

Welcome to TMC!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

There are 50 states plus DC. That means that the 26th ranked state would be in the middle in terms of age adjusted death rate. Florida is ranked 31st which puts them in the half of states that are better than median.

Age adjusted COVID death rate

Not great but better than most. Yet despite them being ranked in the better half of states they are the subject of the vast majority of COVID policy criticism in this thread (IMO for reasons I can’t talk about due to forum rules).

That is the only reason I’m talking about Florida. Because they get criticized like they have the age adjusted death rate of Texas or New York but are actually a lot closer to Connecticut or California. Plus they did it without mandates, lockdowns, school closures, or mass firings.

So every time I post this stuff to defend Florida against misinformation it turns into a circus and everyone forgets what was actually being talked about. Perhaps I’m just wasting my time.

I'm fine with the age-adjusted death rate. I think it's the right way to do things, as age makes a huge difference. It was one of the annoyances that I had with people early on claiming a global IFR of 0.3% (which was probably true) and trying to use that for the US. But that translates to a ~0.6% IFR in the US.

Still, I'd like to know:
1) How well the stated age distribution in Florida reflects reality and whether it is an unusual case due to seasonal migration. I have no idea how much impact this would have on the results - it may not be that significant.
2) How would the different states rank for the period Oct 2020 - present? Obviously there is an element of luck and circumstance which dictated initial abysmal results in some states. It's simply not fair for a meaningful comparison of efficacy of mitigation measures to count the initial wave (Sept 2020 cuts out the initial wave in all states). I do understand that it's not perfect to do it this way either since then there are varying levels of infection-acquired immunity which offsets future results a bit. But I think it's better than the alternative, and that infection-acquired immunity won't be a huge factor, except in NY. Overall levels of prior infection were still pretty low in most places in Oct 2020.
3) Do deaths of non-Florida residents who die in Florida (long term stays in Florida) count in Florida's numbers? How much of a difference would this even make? (Again, back to the seasonal migration issues.)

As an aside, I also wonder what the actual vaccination numbers are in Florida (and all the other states, for that matter). It's unfortunate that we just don't really seem to know what the vaccination rates are due to data issues (and migration patterns).

Unfortunately, like with everything else in this pandemic, there is always a paucity of data.