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The mortality rate is probably closer to 1% than 3%-5%--that's still 10x the flu. But as you say, nobody knows for sure.

I think 1% is as good a guess as any IF adequate medical care is available, but if the medical system is overwhelmed and hospitals can't treat all the sick patients (as is reported to be happening in Italy) it will likely be much higher.
 
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[everyone should] have the compassion to not wish DEATH on a political enemy. [People who do] are pathetic and should be ashamed.
I made some edits to reflect the horribly uncivilized rhetoric that has become endemic in much political discourse over the last few years, from many sides.

The only purified plasma currently available, I think, is from China. They already included some quantity in their A350 load of supplies and people that just arrived in Italy. Now that China has >50,000 recovered cases they probably have fairly plentiful plasma. That should by hugely beneficial to countries that don't object to learning from China.

If it is true that Trump has decreed that no medically important products/components are to be sourced outside the US that will preclude testing speed advances from Roche, testing components from Germany as well as all the very considerable knowledge China has gained at such an astronomic price.

The world is beginning to pay prices for jingoism and isolationism. We must ardently hope that we do not endure similar consequences to those of Smoot-Hawley. That one happened more than a decades after the end of the flu epidemic that began in 1918. This time we have both catastrophic conditions simultaneously. We also have US deficits that were the largest ever, even with a long running boom. Now the third rail is deficits that will be astoundingly high (nobody yet knows how much tax income the US will forego). Three coincident catastrophic events would be nearly unmanageable with a smooth running globally cooperative set of governments.

Somehow I will stand by TSLA because it will manage this disarray less poorly that will others. Otherwise I am now 100% defensive and have eliminated all speculative investments. In spectacular luck none of that ended out with losses. Without question I forewent huge unrealized gains.

I would been less pessimistic were there not so many coincident disasters. It's not just the US in meltdown, now there are fundamental political challenges in every major world economic power. The populists have successfully destroyed the power of most hard-won global institutions including the WHO,World Bank, IMF and UN, and many others. Even OPEC has lost its way.

Sorry to feel so hopeless. The last time I felt like this was in the midst of a civil war (Lebanon 1975) but then the whole world was anxious to preclude global disaster, and people who had known WWII were still forces for calm. Now we have world 'leaders' competing to be less civil than each other.
 
A demographic comparison (ship to general population) would be useful.

Cruise ships in blue ( How Old is the Average Cruise Passenger? | Cruise1st Blog ), US demographics in text ( Demographics of the United States - Wikipedia ) => Conclusion, cruise ships tend to have an older population

Screen Shot 2020-03-13 at 9.59.10 AM.png


Screen Shot 2020-03-13 at 9.59.59 AM.png
 
I made some edits to reflect the horribly uncivilized rhetoric that has become endemic in much political discourse over the last few years, from many sides.

The only purified plasma currently available, I think, is from China. They already included some quantity in their A350 load of supplies and people that just arrived in Italy. Now that China has >50,000 recovered cases they probably have fairly plentiful plasma. That should by hugely beneficial to countries that don't object to learning from China.

If it is true that Trump has decreed that no medically important products/components are to be sourced outside the US that will preclude testing speed advances from Roche, testing components from Germany as well as all the very considerable knowledge China has gained at such an astronomic price.

The world is beginning to pay prices for jingoism and isolationism. We must ardently hope that we do not endure similar consequences to those of Smoot-Hawley. That one happened more than a decades after the end of the flu epidemic that began in 1918. This time we have both catastrophic conditions simultaneously. We also have US deficits that were the largest ever, even with a long running boom. Now the third rail is deficits that will be astoundingly high (nobody yet knows how much tax income the US will forego). Three coincident catastrophic events would be nearly unmanageable with a smooth running globally cooperative set of governments.

Somehow I will stand by TSLA because it will manage this disarray less poorly that will others. Otherwise I am now 100% defensive and have eliminated all speculative investments. In spectacular luck none of that ended out with losses. Without question I forewent huge unrealized gains.

I would been less pessimistic were there not so many coincident disasters. It's not just the US in meltdown, now there are fundamental political challenges in every major world economic power. The populists have successfully destroyed the power of most hard-won global institutions including the WHO,World Bank, IMF and UN, and many others. Even OPEC has lost its way.

Sorry to feel so hopeless. The last time I felt like this was in the midst of a civil war (Lebanon 1975) but then the whole world was anxious to preclude global disaster, and people who had known WWII were still forces for calm. Now we have world 'leaders' competing to be less civil than each other.
Outstanding message.
 
I think 1% is as good a guess is any IF adequate medical care is available, but if the medical system is overwhelmed and hospitals can't treat all the sick patients (as is reported to be happening in Italy) it will likely be much higher.
I agree; this seems to be borne out by the evidence. Overwhelmed healthcare systems have higher mortality rates, there's no question about it. Similar numbers were estimated in this piece:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
 
On that note, I managed to beg a spare face mask off of the cafeteria staff (which are the only ones here wearing face masks... which in turn was the result of a safety report I filed earlier... the company did a great job making changes to the cafeteria). I'm the only one apart from them in a face mask here. But it was seriously destroying my cool that I had no ability to maintain social distance because nobody bloody else was doing it. My boss in particular. I had no ability to stop people from walking over and over - or worse, hanging out - half a meter from my desk, or coming close up to me to speak to me while I'm sitting down. People who I watch taking basically no precautions elsewhere in the building, and thus are immediately flagged "likely carriers" in my mind.

Hope I'm not too late in taking this step. Let me tell you, it's a lot less stressful at work having at least some barrier between me and the people who I can't stop from getting close to me.

I already wore it out in public once - there probably wasn't much risk where I was, but IMHO I want to normalize the concept of being seen out in public in masks. It's weird how much resistance western society has to this.

I've read safety guidelines, and plan to follow all but those related to disposing of it, as I only have the one for now. I plan to steam-sterilize it after taking it off (with appropriate hand washing). Not optimal, but better than nothing.

Bake it in the oven at 160 degree f for an hour. Moisture might destroy the structure.

One mask should only be reused max 8 hours total. I write down the minutes on the mask every time I use them and rotate between 9 different ones for each different day.
 
That's not a comparable statistic though. But we also have to consider that the demographics of a cruise ship is not similar to the general population.
I completely agree, I was not recommending the comparison.

The ship population was bi-modal -- for the most part elderly customers and young adult workers. I don't know the breakdown of infection and mortality in each group.
 
If it is true that Trump has decreed that no medically important products/components are to be sourced outside the US that will preclude testing speed advances from Roche, testing components from Germany as well as all the very considerable knowledge China has gained at such an astronomic price.

But hasn't the administration allowed use of the Roche machines?
 
I agree; this seems to be borne out by the evidence. Overwhelmed healthcare systems have higher mortality rates, there's no question about it. Similar numbers were estimated in this piece:

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

I see the numbers from the UCSF notes @Dr. J posted have a similar number for herd immunity (40-70%)

They also use the 1% death rate but I'm not sure why they did not adjust upward for an overwhelmed medical system.

  • We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
  • 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
  • [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
 
People focus on case fatality but in terms of overwhelming the healthcare system "severe illness" is the metric of merit because those folks are hospitalized. In the 65+ demographic the numbers have been 10 - 15% worldwide. That is a HUGE burden that the US cannot handle. The US has much bigger problems however due to the large group of 40+ year olds with severe co-morbidities (obesity, diabetes, alcohol, tobacco abuse, heart disease) who are biologically 65+ years old.

I expect the US to get a painful lesson in why an unhealthy lifestyle is dangerous.
 
People focus on case fatality but in terms of overwhelming the healthcare system "severe illness" is the metric of merit because those folks are hospitalized. In the 65+ demographic the numbers have been 10 - 15% worldwide. That is a HUGE burden that the US cannot handle. The US has much bigger problems however due to the large group of 40+ year olds with severe co-morbidities (obesity, diabetes, alcohol, tobacco abuse, heart disease) who are biologically 65+ years old.

I expect the US to get a painful lesson in why an unhealthy lifestyle is dangerous.
There are a great many countries that have had steady declines in healthy behavior and conditions. Think of air, water and chemical pollution. Think of diets newly introduced to prepackaged foods. Think of overuse of antibiotics in animal raising, including the human ones. Think great increases in sedentary lifestyles. Think about steady decreases in traditional multi-generational family habitation. Do we remember when adult onset diabetes was rare? Of course all manner of licit and illicit drug use has near epidemic status in many places.

Those are global problems, but the US certainly is a leader in all of them. The combinations do provide dramtic increases in morbidity and mortality.

Noplace in the world, AFAIK, is adequately prepared for testing and treatment of Covid-19. We now have China beginning to help, Korea probably coming soon and Italy proving the most plausible route towards genuine international cooperation. Italy is already warning the world not to follow their example.

Let us remember that Italy stopped flights with China several days before the US did. In the spirit of Christine Lagarde, I think it unlikely that any Coronavirus requires an airplane ticket to travel far and quickly. Italy discovered that. Trump is still trying to 'build a wall'. I wish he'd seen the Great Wall of China which proved for all time that Walls are not very effective as isolating mechanisms.