AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes, entirely possible there. Obviously a lot of differences vs. elsewhere.
It’s a very complicated immune landscape!
Anyway, the main advantage seemed to be its ACE2 binding.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Yes, entirely possible there. Obviously a lot of differences vs. elsewhere.
It’s a very complicated immune landscape!
Anyway, the main advantage seemed to be its ACE2 binding.
New booster works against dominant Covid strain
"A new CDC study has found that the Covid-19 bivalent booster reduces the risk of symptomatic infection from the most common subvariant circulating in the U.S. right now by about half.
Additional new data, set to be published on the CDC website on Wednesday, also shows that individuals who received an updated vaccine reduced their risk of death by nearly 13 fold, when compared to the unvaccinated, and by two fold when compared to those with at least one monovalent vaccine but no updated booster."
Study:
Early Estimates of Bivalent mRNA Booster Dose Vaccine ...
"What is added by this report?
Using spike (S)-gene target presence as a proxy for BA.2 sublineages, including XBB and XBB.1.5, during December 2022–January 2023, the results showed that a bivalent mRNA booster dose provided additional protection against symptomatic XBB/XBB.1.5 infection for at least the first 3 months after vaccination in persons who had previously received 2–4 monovalent vaccine doses."
"A new CDC study has found that the Covid-19 bivalent booster reduces the risk of symptomatic infection from the most common subvariant circulating in the U.S. right now by about half.
Additional new data, set to be published on the CDC website on Wednesday, also shows that individuals who received an updated vaccine reduced their risk of death by nearly 13 fold, when compared to the unvaccinated, and by two fold when compared to those with at least one monovalent vaccine but no updated booster."
Study:
Early Estimates of Bivalent mRNA Booster Dose Vaccine ...
"What is added by this report?
Using spike (S)-gene target presence as a proxy for BA.2 sublineages, including XBB and XBB.1.5, during December 2022–January 2023, the results showed that a bivalent mRNA booster dose provided additional protection against symptomatic XBB/XBB.1.5 infection for at least the first 3 months after vaccination in persons who had previously received 2–4 monovalent vaccine doses."
I forwarded this to my partner. She's read it before and she has long COVID. She's re-reading it.
She had a very bad reaction to sulfa in the 80s that almost killed her. The doctors sent her home to die. It took years to finally get a neurologist to figure out what the lingering problems were. She had been to several and finally went to one of the top neurologists in the US. He said her symptoms are so rare because 999,999 out of a million who get as bad as she did die and few neurologists ever see someone who survive. He said he only knew of one other person who had been as bad as she did and survived and they weren't walking. She taught herself to walk again.
A lot of the long COVID sysmtpoms overlap with the same neurological symptoms she's had for decades. They're just worse.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Finally, the RCT data we have all requested. The mice did not lie. Now the people who have been waiting for the vaccine to be tested can get it. Just in time. Highly efficacious; clear advantage; can finally close the book on this.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Are we looking at the same chart? The booster is barely better than the original.
It's not worse, is the point, I guess. At any rate, those who have hesitated because of the "lack of human studies" can proceed.
Of course, they don't do prerelease human studies on the annual 3 or 4 valent flu vaccines with all of their variations before releasing them, either. Nobody seems to have a heart attack over that.
Yes, they are doing human trials for a universal flu vaccine this year. But it is new, not an annual update of a technology that has been widely used on billions of people already.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
A bit tongue in cheek.
Anyway it is not conclusively worse or better, and it’s completely underpowered for the most important metrics of course.
But hey at least they tested it.
Of course this cannot be compared with any of the booster observational studies showing the protection from the booster - none of them compare vs. the original booster AFAIK (since the original booster is not allowed). Not contradictory and presumably helps a lot, as one would expect.
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Do you have a citation for this?
Eric Topol has written up a summary that cites multiple studies showing that the bivalent vaccines are significantly more effective against current circulating strains of COVID. It's very clear that the bivalent vaccine is the way to go.
The bivalent vaccine booster outperforms
A review of the cumulative body of evidence
erictopol.substack.com
Of course, the biggest issue with vaccines now isn't their effectiveness - it's that not enough people are getting them and that their strength continues to wane after 6 months or so. For this reason, I think the FDA's suggestion that going to an annual booster is reasonable, like the flu shot. But I don't see any end in sight to COVID.
With up to 30%+ of people getting COVID suffering from long-COVID symptoms, it's still pretty clear that you do not want to get this if you can help it.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
(Not sure this is the right link. It is what Google gave me for study 305 part 2. But not sure description matches and no patience to read any details.)
I think it is right:
Trial Details
Trial Details, Study Participant Requirements, Find a trial site near you, See locations
No mice will be harmed.
The problem is we have no way to compare it to the original vaccine. That’s the issue. The original vaccine cannot be used as a booster except in a clinical trial (with various complicated caveats based on age and whether you are talking about Moderna or Pfizer I think - covered earlier).
So we have no idea whether it provides additional benefit over getting another OG booster dose (specifically against severe disease).
No observational trial is really sufficient.
I tend to think the bivalent is better at preventing severe disease with Omicron but is probably not really much better at preventing infection. But I have no idea.
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According to this study ~1/1000 get serious adverse reaction to the vaccine:
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
And according to this study:
You need to vaccinate 1M 40-49 year olds to prevent one severe hospitalization or 100k to prevent one hospitalization.
So it seems the booster today causes ~100x more severe reactions than it prevents in this age group.
Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults
In 2020, prior to COVID-19 vaccine rollout, the Brighton Collaboration created a priority list, endorsed by the World Health Organization, of potential adverse events relevant to COVID-19 vaccines. We adapted the Brighton Collaboration list to evaluate ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
And according to this study:
You need to vaccinate 1M 40-49 year olds to prevent one severe hospitalization or 100k to prevent one hospitalization.
So it seems the booster today causes ~100x more severe reactions than it prevents in this age group.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
According to this study ~1/1000 get serious adverse reaction to the vaccine:
Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults
In 2020, prior to COVID-19 vaccine rollout, the Brighton Collaboration created a priority list, endorsed by the World Health Organization, of potential adverse events relevant to COVID-19 vaccines. We adapted the Brighton Collaboration list to evaluate ...
And according to this study:
You need to vaccinate 1M 40-49 year olds to prevent one severe hospitalization or 100k to prevent one hospitalization.
So it seems the booster today causes ~100x more severe reactions than it prevents in this age group.
A closer careful analysis reveals this is not correct (of course). If it were true we would know about it! But we don’t…so it isn’t true.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
FYI, my spouse mentioned something about the an new variant showing up in the CDC data as I forgot about the update Fri. Added info below.
Footnote in below CDC: "Previously, CH.1.1 was aggregated to BA.2.75"
Below via COVID Data Tracker
Footnote in below CDC: "Previously, CH.1.1 was aggregated to BA.2.75"
Above via What’s CH.1.1? Meet ‘Orthrus,’ a new wildcard Omicron strain with a concerning Delta mutation
Below via COVID Data Tracker
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FYI, my spouse mentioned something about the an new variant showing up in the CDC data as I forgot about the update Fri. Added info below.
Footnote in below CDC: "Previously, CH.1.1 was aggregated to BA.2.75"
Above via What’s CH.1.1? Meet ‘Orthrus,’ a new wildcard Omicron strain with a concerning Delta mutation
Footnote in below CDC: "Previously, CH.1.1 was aggregated to BA.2.75"
Above via What’s CH.1.1? Meet ‘Orthrus,’ a new wildcard Omicron strain with a concerning Delta mutation
Well, that's an interesting one.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
The continued coming & going of variants is interesting but hopefully can avoid predictions of surges until we get the actual bad variant (which would have to be very different to cause big problems, probably). Then and only then.
I guess it does make sense to cry wolf for a two-headed dog, though!
I guess it does make sense to cry wolf for a two-headed dog, though!
scottf200
Well-Known Member
True. Just looking at the graphic shows that CH.1.1 isn't growing or outpacing others in several weeks. Attempted to show that below with some surrounding lines.
It's just interesting to watch these variants and wonder if we will have a bad surge at some point. Not crying wolf, but I do think there's reason to at least remain vigilant, which is why Scott is posting. Especially with such low vaccine uptake and avoidance of masking.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes, it was a little unclear in my post - but nothing wrong with tracking the variants.
We’ll have to hope no scary variant comes along. And hopefully the news stops tracking them; I feel it is counterproductive to keeping people alert to alert people to these things. Unfortunately. (It’s how they are covered- not the fact they are covered, of course.)
scottf200
Well-Known Member
I was reminded of this from a tweet I saw today.
Re: Walgreens Launches COVID-19 Index to Advance Rapid Detection of Omicron and Track Variant Activity by State
I can't recall how much/if this was brought up. From January 19, 2022
To view the Walgreens COVID-19 Index, maps, and other online features, click here.
* ~30K test (top right 1st graphic)
* Change from prev week in 1st graphic but a toggle to get 'Current View' on it.
Re: Walgreens Launches COVID-19 Index to Advance Rapid Detection of Omicron and Track Variant Activity by State
I can't recall how much/if this was brought up. From January 19, 2022
Walgreens Launches COVID-19 Index to Advance Rapid Detection of Omicron and Track Variant Activity by State
The Walgreens COVID-19 Index is among the first to uniquely identify the spread of current and emerging variants in near real-time.
news.walgreens.com
To view the Walgreens COVID-19 Index, maps, and other online features, click here.
* ~30K test (top right 1st graphic)
* Change from prev week in 1st graphic but a toggle to get 'Current View' on it.
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