Norbert
TSLA will win
Why would we necessarily be screwed? That's not what I meant to say. After all it is currently decreasing.
(Judging by the absence of symptoms, I believe I still didn't have COVID either.)
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Why would we necessarily be screwed? That's not what I meant to say. After all it is currently decreasing.
(Judging by the absence of symptoms, I believe I still didn't have COVID either.)
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
COVID will be with us now forever. It's moved from pandemic, to endemic.
2 years ago I stated this was the natural progression for pandemic-strain viruses. The virus mutates in order to 1) spread faster and 2) become less lethal (killing the host is bad for spreading yourself as a virus).
This will continue. A new balance will be struck, and be warned it will likely NOT be the old "norm" we were used to, but mortality rates will continue to drop.
Norbert
TSLA will win
As long as the need for hospitalization and long term effects decrease as well....I hope that vaccine research will make another step forward eventually.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
scottf200
Well-Known Member
I think because of "it still depends on us if it will improve further" -- "us" have proved to be ...
scottf200
Well-Known Member
~90% - XBB.1.5; minimum 77.1% and maximum 98.4%
XBB.1.5: still ~90% with prev weeks adjust a little down
XBB.1.5.1: rose enough to be broken out.
PACEMD
Active Member
Who are you kidding? Those cases have always been zero. This whole thing was a hoax......from day one. All those "sick" people? Actors! And all those supposed Sars-Cov-2 viruses? All out-of-work influenza B viruses dressed up in covid costumes.........wake up sheeple!
Norbert
TSLA will win
Waiting for the video showing the virus taking a sightseeing tour, being escorted by white blood cells all the time...
PACEMD
Active Member
Well you know they will never let you see the video, right?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Norbert
TSLA will win
I just listened to the answers that previous CDC director Redfield gave in the recent hearing. While he believes that based on the "biology" of the virus, there are "indications" that a lab-leak is "more likely", he also says that regarding the question of the origin of the virus "I don't think that answer is going to come from the scientific community, I think that answer is going to come from the intelligence community".
In other words, it is still as it was in the beginning: Different opinions about what was "more likely", none claim certainty, and an agreement that there is no scientific consensus (and in Redfield's case, even a prediction that there won't be).
To me this (still) means (regardless of what the "intelligence community" might find in this case) that scientists believe that both are possible in principle. And that therefore responses to both possibilities need to be evaluated for the future.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Bivalent boosters for tots available a couple days ago! Seems like a good choice to me (not a doctor)! May as well get things as primed as possible. Talk to the pediatrician!
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
My pedi colleagues tell me the take rate on COVID boosters in the 18 and under group has dropped to less than 10%. And this is in not-red California.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yep, not surprising with all the misinformation out there about vaccines in general.
No real significant risk to these jabs! Cost benefit is pretty darn clear at this point. Unless it is some sort of special case it is a no-brainer.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
There is a risk in the males adolescent age or higher for myocarditis. It's not trivial, and the fatality rate in that group is still pretty much zero.
Most of the pedi's I know have stopped offering the shot, but will provide it for those that ask. My girls got their third dose in Dec, but 3 weeks after that both of them and myself got mild COVID (rapid test positive). So even I have stopped and won't be getting a 4th shot in my kids.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Sure (and no one knows the risk except that it is low - might know some risk factors at this point though) but given COVID is pretty much unavoidable it makes the tradeoff very clear!
Wrong vaccine though (I think? A little unclear since age is not known and you did not specify) as you have pointed out.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
At this point, everyone has either had it, or been vaccinated. The IFR in that case is in the neighborhood of the common cold. My friends in the hospitals are just not seeing anyone hospitalized with this anymore, but we know it's endemic.
You do you, but medically, I'm not recommending further boosters for this thing. The data just don't support that medical decision tree any longer for those previously vaccinated or with documented infection.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yep, only 1 in 35000 children in the US died. No biggie. Thankfully the vaccines kept that number from being worse. I am too lazy to look at big picture case rate and death data and do the incremental CFR using prior data points I have posted here, which presumably will be much better now with infection and vaccination having taken deep hold.
Pretty sure myocarditis is a non-issue in comparison in any case! (It’s probably at least as common as a side effect of COVID.)
Plenty of children have not had it of course. Not complicated to figure that one out, lol.
What would be the downside?
All I can say is yikes: Delta particularly rough of course but yet to see solid normalization. Hopefully this year we will see it, but I recommend more vaccination! May as well try!
I’d like to see this broken out with and without COVID, of course, but I think currently the CDC does not allow that breakout by age group as well (would have to fiddle for longer than I want at the moment). And the (small) peaks tell the story anyway. No mysteries here.
(Quick snapshot from my phone, obviously axes are messed up.)
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Why should I even answer you? Serious question. You don't want a dissenting opinion, as is evidenced by your laughing emoji's and LoL's when someone doesn't agree with you or presents data that don't support your view point. Have you noticed how this behavior's has pretty much run everyone else out of this thread except for a select few non-physicians that will occasionally up-vote you? You want an echo-chamber for your well-entrenched opinion, you are not open to anything else. I presented experiences to you (pedi's stopping recommending the vaccines to their patients), and you reply with lol's and sarcasm, instead of wondering why trained physicians made that decision. Do you think it is their political bias? In a state like California? Physicians assess Benefit to Risk ratios when making recommendations to their patients. The benefits of an additional vaccination (4th dose) have to FAR outweigh any, and I mean ANY negative outcome risk for physicians to make that recommendation. This is literally the definition of standard of care, to which we are legally liable as physicians. With a population that has universally been either vaccinated+boosted or has been infected and recovered, and has a low low fatality rate (young people with no comorbidities or risk factors), the decision by physicians not to press their patients to be vaccinated is understandable for that group.
And since you probably don't have kids - even most schools here have stopped testing for COVID or asking parents to home test if their kids are sick. Even those school employees that chose not to be vaccinated are no longer required to get weekly testing to prove they are COVID negative. This is what things look like when the virus is endemic, and lethality has dropped. My colleagues tell me that Adenovirus has been a far bigger problem in the pediatric population this year than covid.
Effectively the mutations have pushed things so far that you have what the scientific community is referring to as Serotype 1 (original through Delta) and Serotype 2 (Omicron and subsequent variants).
This is important because the CFR for Subtype 2 (the only circulating group) is less than half that of Subtype 1 (Alpha through Delta), and that's before vaccination or prior infection with Serotype 1 provide partial immunity.
Most people here can't grasp that the current circulating viral strain is so far different in genetic sequence that it bares only moderate genetic similarities to the original strain. As I stated back in 2020, the virus has mutated to be less deadly, and more infectious. It will continue along that pathway, as is the norm for the pandemic to endemic progression. The genetic commonalities are only slightly closer to the original wuhan strain than they are of next closest completely unrelated coronaviruses - that's how far the mutations have gone on this virus now. The newer Serotypes and subvariants should really be renamed, because calling them SARS-CoV-2 is a misnomer (they don't cause SARS anymore - the clinical presentation is not lower respiratory infection, it's upper respiratory infection - i.e. cold vs. pneumonia).
The below is JUST the phylogenetic tree of SARS-CoV-2, it has more variation between distant variants that some coronaviruses do among unrelated coronaviruses.
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