Coronavirus

[Cosmacelf]

Btw, I talked to a friend of mine who is married to an ER doc in Edmonton, Alberta in Canada, which is the most northern major city there. They have 200 confirmed cases in that province of 4.3M, which puts them at about the same cases/1M as the entire US (which means they aren’t under stress yet since most of the US is currently ok). The city is operating under a shelter at home protocol already. The doctors have been working around the clock getting ready for what they know will come. So far they think they have it under control with no worries about shortages.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

They should have ordered these 2 months ago admittedly. The reason they didn't was due to extremely false economies. But now it should be clear tests and masks are far far cheaper than the shutdown measures they are implementing.

But the US still is not doing this. The federal government is not pulling out all the stops. It’s like they don’t even understand the tsunami that is coming in the next week or so.

Rather than lock down whole states, we might lock down only cities where there are fast spreading cases. And put reasonable travel restrictions between places.

This isn’t the way it works. There are fast spreading cases in virtually every city across the nation now - we just can’t see it yet. That’s the reason lockdown is so important. Look at Seattle - they went on partial lockdown before they could really see any issue in the community and before they had a huge case load (there was the retirement home but that was localized), because they knew it had been spreading in the community for over a month. And now they appear to be better off than New York.

but locking down huge swaths of regions where there are few cases goes beyond flattening the curve.

Just because there are few cases does not mean there are few cases. We have no testing.

As a country, our approach is still woefully inadequate. We need massive lockdowns now. We need to generate enormous numbers of masks for all citizens now. We should be testing millions of people a day nationwide, and pulling out all the stops to increase that to 10s of millions of tests a day (would be good to have annual capacity of several billion). KNOW YOUR STATUS.

I would be shorting the US market hard right now. There will of course be massive rallies on stimulus, but they won’t last. If the right actions were being taken NOW, I would expect a relatively short interruption and a sharp recovery starting in May. But that is not what is happening. We’re dithering. We’re doing nearly the bare minimum of actions needed. All the alarm bells are ringing, red lights are flashing, but we’re doing nothing. The train is not being slowed. Disaster awaits. Every day we wait now probably extends the shutdown by an additional week, and that multiplier is increasing.

As soon as the US really takes action, I’d get rid of the short position. But at the moment it is the only way to protect from the tsunami that is coming. Costs are increasing. We need to get serious. Only the federal gov’t has the authority to lead the way. Nothing is happening. Trump is making the bet that hydroxychloroquine is the solution to ALL our problems, and taking no actions in other ways. Everyone knows this is dumb and doomed. All interventions : therapeutic and vaccines and masks and PPE and ventilators and tests and surveillance and GPS tracking, etc. have to be pursued with maximum effort now. Not happening. This is a nationwide war, and all resources must be brought in to the battle.

 

[NicoV]

Like Karen, I think the only way Elon can have 250,000 masks tomorrow night is by importing them from China. Which is still useful since no one else seems to have the pull to do so according to this article.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/21/coron...age-traced-to-sudden-drop-in-chinese-imports/

Belgium received 5 million masks, and 100K FFP2 masks from China yesterday, in addition to the 500K recently received as a donation from Alibaba:
Broodnodige levering van 5 miljoen mondmaskers is binnen:
Broodnodige levering van 5 miljoen mondmaskers is binnen: "Blijven zoeken, hamsteren als het ware"
250K masks is peanuts.

 

[traxila]

Belgium received 5 million masks, and 100K FFP2 masks from China yesterday, in addition to the 500K recently received as a donation from Alibaba:
Broodnodige levering van 5 miljoen mondmaskers is binnen:
Broodnodige levering van 5 miljoen mondmaskers is binnen: "Blijven zoeken, hamsteren als het ware"
250K masks is peanuts.

More peanuts than I can get my hands on right now through multiple medical supply wholesalers who have absolutely zero masks of any type.

Except Halloween masks. Those are still available.

 

[SO16]

I went to our local Walmart today with my wife.
Other than the two of us, one other person wore a mask or mouth/nose cover

In the vegetable section I started to pick tomatoes and a worker who was restocking picked up a tomato that had fallen on the floor and put it into stock. Remarkably stupid and primitive behavior but it does sort of point out just how hard it is to improve public health and hygiene on a wide scale.

Yes that is bad. But I’d bet a lot of things fall on the floor(or worse) from the field to your plate. All we can really do is sanitize it right before consumption and hope for the best.

 

[NicoV]

More peanuts than I can get my hands on right now through multiple medical supply wholesalers who have absolutely zero masks of any type.

Except Halloween masks. Those are still available.

I meant that we needs tens or hundreds of millions of masks. The Netherlands alone uses 100K masks/day currently.

 

[X Fan]

Belgium received 5 million masks, and 100K FFP2 masks from China yesterday, in addition to the 500K recently received as a donation from Alibaba:
Broodnodige levering van 5 miljoen mondmaskers is binnen:
Broodnodige levering van 5 miljoen mondmaskers is binnen: "Blijven zoeken, hamsteren als het ware"
250K masks is peanuts.

Good to see the Chinese are now allowing masks to be distributed. However, both Europe and the USA needed the quantities much sooner.

The Chinese protectionism in this case means that post-crisis, both Europe and the USA should determine what products, ingredients, etc. are critical for self-sufficiency.

 

[ChadS]

I see people wearing gloves, but they do not seem to realize that the gloves are more much likely to be contaminated than the hands of a person who simply washes them often, before eating, and after touching surfaces that are high risk for contamination. And of course people typically do not wash gloves so the the net effect of glove use is I suspect about as bad as personal non-hygiene

Mostly true...although I wash my rubber gloves before taking them off.

What I like most about wearing gloves is that it is a good reminder...I think I am a lot less likely to touch my face or goods in a grocery store when I have them on.

 

[JRP3]

You may not be able to buy in large multiples, so get in the habit of disinfecting with heat and sunlight.

Since the virus doesn't seem to last more than 3 days on cardboard and plastic why not just let a mask sit for 3 days after use? Assuming you aren't going out more than once every 3 days.

 

[SageBrush]

Since the virus doesn't seem to last more than 3 days on cardboard and plastic why not just let a mask sit for 3 days after use? Assuming you aren't going out more than once every 3 days.

The short answers are half-life, inoculum and respiratory droplet moisture

 

[JRP3]

The short answers are half-life, inoculum and respiratory droplet moisture

How about a spritz of alcohol?

 

[jerry33]

Belgium received 5 million masks, and 100K FFP2 masks from China yesterday, in addition to the 500K recently received as a donation from Alibaba:
Broodnodige levering van 5 miljoen mondmaskers is binnen:
Broodnodige levering van 5 miljoen mondmaskers is binnen: "Blijven zoeken, hamsteren als het ware"
250K masks is peanuts.

Belgium didn't call it a Chinese Virus either.

 

[traxila]

Mostly true...although I wash my rubber gloves before taking them off.

What I like most about wearing gloves is that it is a good reminder...I think I am a lot less likely to touch my face or goods in a grocery store when I have them on.

Everyone at work is wearing gloves and is instructed to wash them as they were washing their hands.

I find that wearing gloves is incredibly effective to help you in not touching your face. Especially the T zone.

 

[SageBrush]

How about a spritz of alcohol?

My guess: better than nothing, but no where near as good as sunlight and heat

It is not difficult to blow hot air on them with a hair dryer for 15 minutes.

 

[jerry33]

My guess: better than nothing, but no where near as good as sunlight and heat

It is not difficult to blow hot air on them with a hair dryer for 15 minutes.

Do people have hair dryers anymore? I recall we had one in the 1970s.

 

[FoverM]

I would be shorting the US market hard right now.

Why the "would be"? If you're so convinced then put your money where your mouth is. Post in real time as you make your trades.

There will of course be massive rallies on stimulus, but they won’t last. If the right actions were being taken NOW, I would expect a relatively short interruption and a sharp recovery starting in May. But that is not what is happening. We’re dithering. We’re doing nearly the bare minimum of actions needed. All the alarm bells are ringing, red lights are flashing, but we’re doing nothing. The train is not being slowed. Disaster awaits. Every day we wait now probably extends the shutdown by an additional week, and that multiplier is increasing.

Try decaf.

 

[SageBrush]

Do people have hair dryers anymore? I recall we had one in the 1970s.

I may be using the wrong label. The device blows out a stream of hot air.
Just be sure to use opposite an open window, or outside away from you.

A little common sense is quite helpful.

 

[Causalien]

Mostly true...although I wash my rubber gloves before taking them off.

What I like most about wearing gloves is that it is a good reminder...I think I am a lot less likely to touch my face or goods in a grocery store when I have them on.

I have adapted some new habits since the pandemic started. Gloves seems to stop me from touching my face alltogether because there's a subconscious knowledge that it is dirty.

I have a plastic tray near the door with soapy water that I just dump the glove in once I get inside. It solves the problems of having to enter green zones with a contaminated glove.

 

[SageBrush]

How many of you wash your fresh fruit and vegetables with soap and water before eating ?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

If you're so convinced then put your money where your mouth is. Post in real time as you make your trades.

I have my long positions and I am somewhat hedging them with short ETFs, which I jump in and out of (I’m short right now, over the weekend, because the news is getting exponentially worse - however, definitely the markets could rally with the news on the $2 trillion stimulus (still insufficient) - we shall see). Just playing around with small amounts, as I am not a sophisticated investor. I hope I am wrong with my short position, because it means (over the long term) that the country will be on the right track. I’m not interested in publicizing my specific trades in advance. I’m just really, really worried about the trajectory we are on here, and I still don’t see the sense of urgency. I hope it all works out great though, and we can get out of our houses and everyone can get tested and KNOW THEIR STATUS by mid-May.

Keep in mind the 18 days ago, NYC had 2 cases. The only difference (other than density which of course matters) in other cities that have not implemented shelter in place is they are about 10-15 days behind.