Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

Where is the hospital he is in? Hot spots are developing in the U.S as they did in Italy, whereas other areas have yet to report significant infections. In any event his timing may have been pure luck, because one week from now there are going to be areas where someone having a heart attack will be in deep trouble. Do a search on: "LA Times, A Disaster Foretold"

My brother is a OR nurse in Philadelphia. His team is being offered time off without pay since they shut down elective surgery and anything not life-threatening. Obviously that will reverse itself when we get our burst in 5 days or so, but as of now hospitals in Philly are relatively empty.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

At this moment, Johns Hopkins site is reporting 27004 cases of COVID19 with 347 deaths attributed to it, that's a 1.2 % death rate for persons identified as having the virus. Nobody knows right now but let's just say there are at least 10x that number with COVID19 that have not been identified. That would make current death rate in the USA of 0.12% which is same as influenza. Can't predict the future but those are the facts, right now, on 3/22/202 at 1:19pm est.

In case you didn't get the memo, the posters of this thread have entered a new phase. Statistical observations, now that they're actually available, are to be ignored as background noise.

Please stick to anecdotal apocalyptic observations from the internet. Thank you for your cooperation.

 

[EVNow]

Aside from the fact an EV costs $40k while a mass produced test should cost $2 and the cost of the alternative to the test is possibly as high as the person's 6-12 month salary.

The question is - what would it take to administer 330 Million tests quickly. We are struggling with even 10k per day. Even with 1M per day, it will take a month.

The tests are 80% sensitive. So, even administering tests to everyone leaves out 20% of the cases. Even that sensitivity is with T-1 and T+5 days of symptoms appearing. Outside that its worse.

 

[Daniel in SD]

At this moment, Johns Hopkins site is reporting 27004 cases of COVID19 with 347 deaths attributed to it, that's a 1.2 % death rate for persons identified as having the virus. Nobody knows right now but let's just say there are at least 10x that number with COVID19 that have not been identified. That would make current death rate in the USA of 0.12% which is same as influenza. Can't predict the future but those are the facts, right now, on 3/22/202 at 1:19pm est.

What percentage of cases do they think were identified in South Korea?
I think some of those 27004 have not recovered yet...

 

[bkp_duke]

Korea was almost a hard hit. Are they covering it up too? Or are you panicking?

I'm a scientist, I don't panic. I follow the facts. Social media leaks in China do not support the "party line".

 

[Daniel in SD]

At this moment, Johns Hopkins site is reporting 27004 cases of COVID19 with 347 deaths attributed to it, that's a 1.2 % death rate for persons identified as having the virus. Nobody knows right now but let's just say there are at least 10x that number with COVID19 that have not been identified. That would make current death rate in the USA of 0.12% which is same as influenza. Can't predict the future but those are the facts, right now, on 3/22/202 at 1:19pm est.

"let's say" is also doing a lot of work in your analysis. haha
Another misleading thing is that only about 10% of the population gets the flu each year because there is a vaccine and some herd immunity since most people have gotten related strains before. A far larger percentage of the population would get COVID-19.

 

[mrmage]

I've made some projections on when CV will overwhelm our hospitals. I believe CV deaths are the most accurate measure for forecasting where CV is heading, because testing for active cases is under sampled. However, people presenting CV symptoms when admitted to hospitals are likely to be tested in order to determine treatment.

I've also included other western countries like Italy for comparison. I believe those are good references because their cultures are similar to the US. I posit that their leaders and populace are less likely to support the draconian measures to contain CV in China and S. Korea.

The projections show there will not be any net ICU capacity left around end of this month in the US. By early to mid April, there won't be any net beds left at all.

Some of my takes:

- Different areas in the US are at different points in the curve. Anecdotes about hospital bed capacity in Bodega Bay, CA does not mean New York City is not swamped. A week makes a big difference.

- If the projections hold, even warmer weather won't come soon enough to avoid this for most of the US.

- The number of hospital beds per capita in Italy and Spain are similar to the US. From the graph, Italy has been out of bed capacity recently. Spain is right behind. The percentage of fatalities may be increasing because new severe cases have exceeded the medical system's capacity to treat them.

- Panic and fear are likely to set in when loved ones die when there's not enough hospitals to take care of them. The severely ill will be treated at home by family members, who don't have the drugs, life support, and expertise that would otherwise save their lives.

- Most countries including the US have not reached the point where hospitals are overwhelmed, so many countries are in denial. This will change quickly once capacity has been exceeded.

Let me know if I've made a mistake with the math or assumptions, and I'll update when I have time. I hope I'm wrong, but I believe we're all better off basing our decisions on the best information available.


Key sources:
List of countries by hospital beds - Wikipedia
https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

 

[powertoold]

I'm a scientist, I don't panic. I follow the facts. Social media leaks in China do not support the "party line".

What leaks are we referring to? Are they leaks about surges in new cases?

 

[bkp_duke]

My brother is a OR nurse in Philadelphia. His team is being offered time off without pay since they shut down elective surgery and anything not life-threatening. Obviously that will reverse itself when we get our burst in 5 days or so, but as of now hospitals in Philly are relatively empty.

I have a colleague that is a surgeon in NYC. Elective surgeries are also shut down there, but he reports the hospitals are filling up quickly and the physicians and nurses are frustrated because they are quickly running out of PPE.

Philly is probably 2 weeks behind NYC unless things are well locked down there.

 

[nwdiver]

At this moment, Johns Hopkins site is reporting 27004 cases of COVID19 with 347 deaths attributed to it, that's a 1.2 % death rate for persons identified as having the virus. Nobody knows right now but let's just say there are at least 10x that number with COVID19 that have not been identified. That would make current death rate in the USA of 0.12% which is same as influenza. Can't predict the future but those are the facts, right now, on 3/22/202 at 1:19pm est.

No one drops dead the moment they're infected it can sometimes takes weeks. They linger in the ICU on a ventilator. So there's really no way to extrapolate the CFR when you're barely at the steep part of the confirmed case curve.

 

[bkp_duke]

The question is - what would it take to administer 330 Million tests quickly. We are struggling with even 10k per day. Even with 1M per day, it will take a month.

The tests are 80% sensitive. So, even administering tests to everyone leaves out 20% of the cases. Even that sensitivity is with T-1 and T+5 days of symptoms appearing. Outside that its worse.

False, the tests are 99% sensitive. I've covered this repeatedly. Almost all tests being done are PCRs, they are both highly sensitive, and highly specific.

The downside it they take a while to run.

 

[powertoold]

No one drops dead the moment they're infected it can sometimes takes weeks. They linger in the ICU on a ventilator. So there's really no way to extrapolate the CFR when you're barely at the steep part of the confirmed case curve.

Sure, but while they linger, new cases will also appear, so the percentage remains the same...

People need to stop using hypotheticals to instill FUD. Yes, we need to take action, but there's also stats and other countries that have it under control. This isn't a doomsday virus.

 

[bkp_duke]

What leaks are we referring to? Are they leaks about surges in new cases?

The Chinese party line is "no new cases". The few social media leaks that have gotten out say there are still significant numbers of new cases being identified.

 

[powertoold]

The Chinese party line is "no new cases". The few social media leaks that have gotten out say there are still significant numbers of new cases being identified.

I see, but how do we validate these posts? Considering there is so much misinformation out there and various countries trying to spread propaganda and misinformation. At this point, we *know* the virus can be contained and controlled, as exampled by SK and JP.

Constantly, we hear that JP is LYING LYING LYING because of the olympics. WITHOUT ANY EVIDENCE. This is unreasonable and is FUD.

We need to stop finding unsubstantiated explanations for stats that don't match our BIAS.

Edit; FURTHERMORE, Elon himself has said the China suppliers are strong and operating, as is GF3. Why would China restart their suppliers if the virus is out of control.????

 

[nwdiver]

Sure, but while they linger, new cases will also appear, so the percentage remains the same...

People need to stop using hypotheticals to instill FUD. Yes, we need to take action, but there's also stats and other countries that have it under control. This isn't a doomsday virus.

My point is that someone in the ICU isn't counted as 'dead'; Which is one reason some health officials would prefer 'hospitalization rate' over death rate to highlight the seriousness of this.

 

[nwdiver]

At least we're getting a TON of sick memes out of this... #silverlinings

 

[bkp_duke]

I see, but how do we validate these posts? Considering there is so much misinformation out there and various countries trying to spread propaganda and misinformation. At this point, we *know* the virus can be contained and controlled, as exampled by SK and JP.

Constantly, we hear that JP is LYING LYING LYING because of the olympics. WITHOUT ANY EVIDENCE. This is unreasonable and is FUD.

We need to stop finding unsubstantiated explanations for stats that don't match our BIAS.

China has a long-standing history of censorship for things that don't align with the party narrative:
Report: China Internet Firms Censored Coronavirus Terms, Criticism Early in Outbreak

That was early on, and they refused to let in WHO workers for over 2 months during the outbreak (which has now been traced back to Nov 2019).


For those not in the know, China's telcom system is uniquely setup to prevent information from reaching outside of the country. Unlike other countries, there are only 2 Telcom providers, both owned and run by the state. They actively block many news outlets and social media apps from the west, and to Bayesian filtering on their own population's social media and email to prevent information from spreading which they don't approve.

Encrypted apps (Signal, WhatsApp, etc.) are forbidden in the country so that the population cannot get around this.

Oh, and they also have a horrible human rights record.


But hey, if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck . . . it must be a cat? Right?



Oh, and I never said Japan is lying. My comments are applicable ONLY to China (well, and North Korea).

 

[bkp_duke]

At least we're getting a TON of sick memes out of this... #silverlinings

View attachment 524400

Universal healthcare would have had no impact upon Coronavirus.

No healthcare system in the WORLD is designed to be able to mitigate a once in 100 year pandemic.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm a scientist, I don't panic. I follow the facts. Social media leaks in China do not support the "party line".

Let's look at this scientifically. Are a certain percentage of the population going to experience irrational panic? Would you say your level of concern is on the top .1%? Do you think you'd know it if you were irrationally panicking?

Statistical clarity is nearly upon us and you're still pointing to conspiracy.

Our biggest danger left is ourselves. Let's see how bad we can screw this up.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

No virus that can incubate for 13 days can cause the pandemic we're pre-reacting to. If it could, human civilization would not exist.

Unless of course this is something new developed by the Chinese military. Maybe some of the posters here can provide details?