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I practiced for a significant time, much of it on the "front line". I never once saw a patient that was REALLY sick that declined to be treated because they were concerned of bankruptcy. AFTER the fact, they were concerned about costs, yes. This is a fun talking point for those that favor socialized medicine, but not one that fits well with the facts. So let me throw out the other talking point:

SOCIALIZED MEDICINE AND RATIONED CARE
I have a cousin that is a doctor in Toronto, and he was visiting just in Dec and we talked about the differences in medical systems between the two countries. We were both very open in the discussion and wanted to hear the other's perspective, not trying to push any biases we might have. Without anyone prompting, he openly admitted that in the Canadian system has a substantial flaw and that as an Internal Medicine physician, they actively ration care in the system. The sickest patients in theory get bumped up to the front of the line, but even with that it can still be months before they see the specialist they need to and get the treatment they need, and he openly admitted that many of them DIE WAITING FOR CARE. He believes that because of the rising costs of healthcare in Canada (yep, they have the same problem we do) that the administrators of that system actively refuse to add capacity (and increase costs) and "bleed off" some of the sickest patients by letting them die before they get the care they need. This is why the rich in Canada (prevented from buying insurance there), come to the US for treatment to "bypass the lines" in their own country.

Both systems have their flaws, and they are significant. The Mainstream Media keeps pushing the positives of socialized medicine without wanting to acknowledge the flaws that come with that system.
I rarely disagree with you. This time you have said something that is not strictly correct. Canadians can and do buy private health insurance, but it resembles Medicare supplements more than a basic private policy. Still, it pays for substantially upgraded care. True enough, basic health care is socialized.
Personal health insurance
vgnLocale=en_CA

FWIW I have lived in both socialized and US-style limited-socialized systems. (France, UK, Brazil, Japan). There are, in my opinion, quite different strengths and weaknesses between the options. IN some countries, such as Brazil, there is free universal health that treats mostly poorer people, sometimes well, sometimes very poorly. Private insurance is quite cheap for outstanding care precisely because the public system remove 'emergency room as primary care' as is common is, say, the US. Similarly, the bureaucratic component of public management disappears as do co-pays.

I will not argue for one system or another because they all have different character. That said it is nice to have every inoculation free and unbureaucratic, and even better to have zero processing of eligibility or copays. Sadly I have had personal experience in several systems.
 
I rarely disagree with you. This time you have said something that is not strictly correct. Canadians can and do buy private health insurance, but it resembles Medicare supplements more than a basic private policy. Still, it pays for substantially upgraded care. True enough, basic health care is socialized.
Personal health insurance
vgnLocale=en_CA

FWIW I have lived in both socialized and US-style limited-socialized systems. (France, UK, Brazil, Japan). There are, in my opinion, quite different strengths and weaknesses between the options. IN some countries, such as Brazil, there is free universal health that treats mostly poorer people, sometimes well, sometimes very poorly. Private insurance is quite cheap for outstanding care precisely because the public system remove 'emergency room as primary care' as is common is, say, the US. Similarly, the bureaucratic component of public management disappears as do co-pays.

I will not argue for one system or another because they all have different character. That said it is nice to have every inoculation free and unbureaucratic, and even better to have zero processing of eligibility or copays. Sadly I have had personal experience in several systems.

I was referring to the basic care system. I am aware that Canadians can purchase health insurance, but my understanding is that it is for only things not covered by the socialized system.

And I agree - in the US, no one should be allowed to use the ER for primary care. Emergency care only. This has been a significant driver of cost in the US system.
 
I'm still waiting for someone to explain this! I keep seeing people say this.

To explain *why* some of us think that we may be doing more harm than good? The short answer is that being poor is *very* bad for your health. If you don't understand that, then you must have enjoyed a rarefied life (and aren't fearing job loss right now).

I don't know the correct response to all of this. I'm just concerned that there has been a *lack* of concern about the economy and how the economy directly affects lives in so many ways.
 
This is interesting. Scroll down a bit and on the left. US Health Weather Map by Kinsa

Does anyone know what the baseline is?

ie specific weekly history vs present or yearly average vs present etc.

The reason why I ask is that Florida always spikes in the first quarter due to visitors but then slacks off greatly in the other 9 months. Therefore is their chart measuring y/y compared to same weeks or annual data?
 
I'm still waiting for someone to explain this! I keep seeing people say this.

Explanation; disproportionate reactions are bad because they carry secondary consequences.

Over 4 million annual deaths related to air pollution and 8 million annual deaths related to smoking don't seem to worry the average Joe, at all. But now he's heading for the toilet paper.
 
Does anyone know what the baseline is?

ie specific weekly history vs present or yearly average vs present etc.

The reason why I ask is that Florida always spikes in the first quarter due to visitors but then slacks off greatly in the other 9 months. Therefore is their chart measuring y/y compared to same weeks or annual data?

Nope, no idea
 
To explain *why* some of us think that we may be doing more harm than good? The short answer is that being poor is *very* bad for your health. If you don't understand that, then you must have enjoyed a rarefied life (and aren't fearing job loss right now).

I don't know the correct response to all of this. I'm just concerned that there has been a *lack* of concern about the economy and how the economy directly affects lives in so many ways.

There's a relation when it comes to unemployment and mortality rates due to things like displacement, lack of health benefits, poor diet/immune system due to lack of quality foods, suicide, etc..The relationship is around 1% unemployment in the US leads to 35k deaths. This is just for the US. In other countries where the government can't do much to support the unemployed, the rate will be higher. This doesn't even take into account the next generation of youth that get displaced or permanently put into economic and social situations that lead to unhealthy lives or premature deaths. So yes, in a way we are threatening the lives of the current generation and the next generation for the elderly generation which is not logical. Sounds harsh I know. It would be very unpopular but forcing the population over 50 or 60 into absolute quarantine for 4-6 weeks and letting the population under 50 go about their normal lives would be the best possible path forward. I know I might get flack for this thought process, but the longer we keep this social distancing, the more lives that will be lost in the long run.

A massive overreaction can and probably will lead to more deaths from unemployment and the effects of depression than the actual virus. Right now, we're in hysteria and no ones is thinking about this. I'm still in the camp that after 3-4 weeks of lockdown, people and governments will realize that they will have to open up parts of the economy.
 
While you're here, I'd love to hear your take on everything.

I'm personally concerned about trading future lives for present lives. I have my own ideas about how to optimize things, but I think you might be uniquely (on this forum) qualified to weigh in. You were an epidemiologist during one of your many broad, and varied careers, correct?
I was, although I just posted about my experience with multiple healthcare systems.
On this topic I'll offer a specific take.
Before Virus Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded
Many years ago when I was doing epidemiology there were less sophisticated versions of the two 'war games' discussed in the NYT article. Bluntly, these games, one under Obama one under Trump both made it clear taht teh US was not prepared. By contrast South Korea took their lesson from the disaster of SARS:
e015e096-6532-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
The primary difference was that one country did not have the political will to prepare for an uncertain future event. The other, with a disaster fresh in mid, did have that will.

The US has numerous people who are fully prepared to prepare, and strong advocates to do so. The political will, though is no longer willing to do what it takes to eradicate measles. polio or anything else. Being prepared and acting to prevent is very expensive and demands large resources, most of them governmental. The US has done such things many times, including several diseases. Now we see the return of several of those because ill-informed people refuse vaccinations. That is exacerbated by people who want the Federal Government to be absent from health contingency planning and preparedness. Frankly, much of those sad results come together with political polarization that demonizes political differences.

One can argue about preparedness but we are doomed not to be prepared if we will not pay for preparedness.
FWIW, the entire Federal infrastructure of which I was a part of a program as an epidemiologist no longer exists. Even more poignant, I was seconded to the NYC Health Department helping manage infectious disease outbreaks. Oddly, the US Public Health Service has had a very long and checkered history;
United States Public Health Service - Wikipedia
If the country had been willing to devote the resources to be prepared fro an unknown outbreak it could easily, but expensively, have done so.

Because of political decisions the US, and much of the world, chose to operate 'uninsured' and unprepared. We might face the facts. As global temperatures rise and climactic extremes accelerate there will be more and more outbreaks coupled with reduced resilience. Every climatologist and epidemiologist knows that. Everything from skin cancers, water and air pollution-driven diseases to viral and bacterial outbreaks are happening with greater virulence and frequency.

If there ends out one benefit from the present catastrophe it might be the the world will engage in greater cooperation to manage such outbreaks and prevent the ones that might be prevented. Somehow this needs to be transformed from a partisan political view to a rational scientific one.

Is that possible?
 
Explanation; disproportionate reactions are bad because they carry secondary consequences.

Over 4 million annual deaths related to air pollution and 8 million annual deaths related to smoking don't seem to worry the average Joe, at all. But now he's heading for the toilet paper.
Fortunately the current coronavirus response will dramatically reduce air pollution! And people will have less money so they'll smoke less.
I agree that there could be secondary consequences and we should weight those. I'd like to see them quantified before I worry about them though. People shouldn't be trying to induce panic!
 
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Both systems have their flaws, and they are significant. The Mainstream Media keeps pushing the positives of socialized medicine without wanting to acknowledge the flaws that come with that system.
Having lived under both systems for over twenty five years each, you're correct that there is no perfect system. However, there isn't the fear of bankruptcy in Canada. In the U.S. it's something like 530,000 annually. Now depending upon where you look you can find reports that say it's not true or there are other factors, or that Canadians have the same rate, but the perception is there regardless of the actual facts. People act on perception more often then they act on reality.
 
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I was, although I just posted about my experience with multiple healthcare systems.
On this topic I'll offer a specific take.
Before Virus Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded
Many years ago when I was doing epidemiology there were less sophisticated versions of the two 'war games' discussed in the NYT article. Bluntly, these games, one under Obama one under Trump both made it clear taht teh US was not prepared. By contrast South Korea took their lesson from the disaster of SARS:
e015e096-6532-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
The primary difference was that one country did not have the political will to prepare for an uncertain future event. The other, with a disaster fresh in mid, did have that will...

Very interesting. Thank you for the response.
 
DW and I were talking about this CV mess the other day. One potentially good thing to come out of it would be some sort of new testing device. I don't really know how the current tests work but it should be clear to everyone now (USGov, general public, etc.) that it would be worthwhile for the Gov to spend many billions of $$$ to promote development of deployable tests. Not just for this event but for the seasonal flu and unpredictable events in the future. Some possibilities:

1. Holy Grail: simple, inexpensive permanent device for home use. Linked to internet so that it can get updated to test for new bugs. Or maybe inexpensive testing "cartridges" that are more specific to diseases that you buy when you need them.

2. Decent solution: more complex machine in grocery stores, CVS, Walgreens, etc. Like the free blood pressure machines already in those stores. We're seeing pop up CV testing being deployed right now, why not make it permanent, in-house, and more generic for future use?

The goal isn't laboratory-grade testing but rather simple screening. If Fred in the office turns up sick one day, you could pop over to a testing device to see if you have anything, too, and self-isolate for a few days if you're positive.

Is a more generic testing device possible theoretically or is it simply physically impossible? I don't know. If it is theoretically possible and I were President, I'd call Musk into the Oval Office and say, "here's $10B, come back to me with a prototype in two years". I'd pick Musk not because he's a healthcare/biology genius but rather that he's a problem-solving and organizational genius. I have faith in his ability to pick the right people for the job and his ability to whip them relentlessly until a solution is found.
So, second attempt posting this (first one seems to have been disappeared):

About | Qlife
Qlife is a high-tech medical device company that seeks to revolutionize the clinical biomarker testing of whole blood by taking it out of the lab and into the homes of the people who needs it the most.
device%20foran%20torso_0.jpg


Looks like a perfect fit for the present need, provided a good reagent can be developed. Which is of course the poodle's kernel, as it were. Follows the "give away razor, sell the blades" model. Not necessarily for profit at this time; once established on the mass market that handy little thing could test for almost anything.
 
Does the heat suppress the cases? I'm surprised the cases can be so much lower than NY given the lack of measure in place, Spring Break, etc... California is also reporting a low number of cases relative to its populations.

I would credit that more to higher sun intensity (UV-C) rather than temperature. See video from Minute Earth on coronavirus from 5 years ago...

 
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I was referring to the basic care system. I am aware that Canadians can purchase health insurance, but my understanding is that it is for only things not covered by the socialized system.

And I agree - in the US, no one should be allowed to use the ER for primary care. Emergency care only. This has been a significant driver of cost in the US system.

And you also left out Private Care option in Canada, which is still cheaper than US. The rich can self pay and health insurance is not really an issue anyway.