Coronavirus

[bkp_duke]

But this is Germany. Do you imagine that the same conditions will/do apply in the USA?

Nope, not a shot in hell. I watched groups of 5-7 walk by my house today, far closer than 6ft apart. Neighbors (who are doctors) letting their kids play with other neighborhood kids (that one gave me a Captain Picard level of DOUBLE FACEPALM).

 

[Jetex Jim]

People literally do not understand the ramifications of a global economical shutdown for that long. They can't look past how they might individually be affected and understand what it means for countries and how other countries rely on countries and the implications it does to their citizens.

And you are engaged in another guessing game. And here there's no possibility of any stats coming along to prove/disprove it.

The strategy countries are adopting is the only one that seems to have a chance of working, the Wuhan strategy. Play for time and try and suppress the curve until a vaccination is available.

But the option, do nothing, does appeal it seems.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I would love to see a world-wide equivalent to the Manhattan Project, except for vaccines.
1) establish better data sharing world-wide (without the politics of the WHO)
2) provide a @#$% ton of money for research for better vaccine production mechanisms (i.e. the gears in the machine)
3) provide money to literally wipe out every respiratory pathogen that infects humans. This is possible, just no one has had the motive to do it until now

The only groups I could see that would possibly be against a collaboration like this are the anti-vaxers

This would make me very, very happy.

For those who haven't followed, I've been saying that we're not properly weighing the impact of shutdown for CV-19 (economy takes a hit, bad economy --> people die because they're poor and unemployed, possibly homeless), versus the effort to save lives today. However, despite thinking that there are powerfully negative effects of our response (not considering future lives lost), there are also positives that may come out of this. If we really put a concerted effort into wiping out every respiratory pathogen that infects humans, that would totally change my mind and make me say we're *definitely* doing the right thing at this time.

There's so much uncertainty in all of this.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And you are engaged in another guessing game. And here there's no possibility of any stats coming along to prove/disprove it.

The strategy countries are adopting is the only one that seems to have a chance of working, the Wuhan strategy. Play for time and try and suppress the curve until a vaccination is available.

But the option, do nothing, does appeal it seems.

How on earth are you associating what I said with do nothing strategy? You do understand how herd immunity works right?

 

[bkp_duke]

This would make me very, very happy.

For those who haven't followed, I've been saying that we're not properly weighing the impact of shutdown for CV-19 (economy takes a hit, bad economy --> people die because they're poor and unemployed, possibly homeless), versus the effort to save lives today. However, despite thinking that there are powerfully negative effects of our response (not considering future lives lost), there are also positives that may come out of this. If we really put a concerted effort into wiping out every respiratory pathogen that infects humans, that would totally change my mind and make me say we're *definitely* doing the right thing at this time.

There's so much uncertainty in all of this.

Fully admit, this is a pipe-dream on my part. LoL

 

[jdw]

Having lived under both systems for over twenty five years each, you're correct that there is no perfect system. However, there isn't the fear of bankruptcy in Canada..

Canadians can buy supplemental health insurance, but it isn't (and can't be) for primary care. Canadian health care does not cover dental, vision, prescriptions, loss of income or pretty much any elective procedure, extended care or supplemental travel or evacuation insurance. That is the market for private insurance here.

Canadians don't go bankrupt paying for government covered medical treatments ... they go bankrupt because they can't work while waiting for treatment or while recovering from an illness and have no income. It doesn't really matter if you lose your house to pay medical bills or lose your house because you can't pay the mortgage.

There are often many month waits to see specialists and further waits for treatment in many cases. That is why around 50,000 people a year, who are lucky enough to be able to afford it travel to the US for treatment. The rest wait for treatment and either recover or die.

The Canadian system is really great for acute conditions - break an arm, the kid has the sniffles, heart attacks, traffic accidents etc. but it falls apart pretty quickly for many common chronic conditions that require specialists or diagnostic equipment.

 

[Daniel in SD]

economy takes a hit, bad economy --> people die because they're poor and unemployed, possibly homeless

This has absolutely not been proven. Most of the evidence is to the contrary. Also, the Coronavirus will not affect the housing stock (except for some deferred maintenance).
Effect of the Great Recession on regional mortality trends in Europe
Just an example but all the evidence I've found has shown that economic contractions reduce mortality.
Abstract:

Previous studies have consistently shown the recurrent relationship between macroeconomic cycles and changes in mortality trends, so that recessions are generally associated with periods of faster life expectancy rise, and periods of economic growth with slower reductions or even increases in mortality trends. Here we analyze the link between annual per capita estimates of gross domestic product and daily atmospheric temperatures and standardized death rates for a large ensemble of European regions to describe the effect of the Great Recession on annual and seasonal changes in all-cause human mortality trends. Results show that the countries and regions with the largest (smallest) economic slowdown were also those with the largest (smallest) strengthening of the declining mortality trend. This procyclical evolution of mortality rates is found to be stronger during the cold part of the year, showing that it also depends on the seasonal timing of the underlying causes of death.

 

[rxlawdude]

So, second attempt posting this (first one seems to have been disappeared):

About | Qlife

Looks like a perfect fit for the present need, provided a good reagent can be developed. Which is of course the poodle's kernel, as it were. Follows the "give away razor, sell the blades" model. Not necessarily for profit at this time; once established on the mass market that handy little thing could test for almost anything.

Google Theranos and Elizabeth Holmes for a very cautionary tale. Not saying this is like Theranos, but reading the website I get a feeling of deja vu.

 

[SageBrush]

But there's plenty of cumulative statistical evidence that says we're doing far more harm than good by freaking out and locking down.

I view lockdowns as a reset. The first time around was a cluster, perhaps the second (or third, or fourth) reset will be handled well by the authorities and the population.

 

[kyzhk]

A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients — ProPublica

For anyone who thinks this is like the flu or it’s no big deal for younger people.

For any disease out there you can find equally horrifying stories from individuals. The story doesn't prove your point.

This disease, statistically speaking, is no where near a top threat that should be concerning to young people. The problem here is that young people can be a transmission vector that accelerates spread to the more vulnerable group. And this is the real reason why people need to stay home regardless whether they are vulnerable or not.

Quoting one story of horrible death of a young patient and drawing the conclusion that this virus is dangerous to young people is not helping. You need to provide people valid reasons. People can tell bs and when they stop listening because of bs reasons like this it doesn't help.

 

[EVNow]

As long as the PCR primers are well-designed for the viral RNA, the test is fantastic (and everyone has had the virus's RNA sequence for 3 months now).

That's what makes the non-availability of official sensitivity of tests frustrating.

Anyway, getting back to the original point testing 330M people quickly is not practical.

 

[bkp_duke]

For any disease out there you can find equally horrifying stories from individuals. The story doesn't prove your point.

This disease, statistically speaking, is no where near a top threat that should be concerning to young people. The problem here is that young people can be a transmission vector that accelerates spread to the more vulnerable group. And this is the real reason why people need to stay home regardless whether they are vulnerable or not.

Quoting one story of horrible death of a young patient and drawing the conclusion that this virus is dangerous to young people is not helping. You need to provide people valid reasons. People can tell bs and when they stop listening because of bs reasons like this it doesn't help.

Unless you are a fat-ass, vape-smoking, diabetic. You know, like so many of our young in this country.

 

[SageBrush]

Quoting one story of horrible death of a young patient and drawing the conclusion that this virus is dangerous to young people is not helping

... Not helping, how ? The flood of stories made me wonder if it was a concerted public health propaganda effort to motivate young people to take social distancing seriously.

 

[bkp_duke]

That's what makes the non-availability of official sensitivity of tests frustrating.

Anyway, getting back to the original point testing 330M people quickly is not practical.

This is common in brand new tests that are put into service (rightfully so) for emergency usage. The specificity and sensitivity numbers will come and be published, but they will be comparably high to those you see for PCRs for Influenza.

 

[Stormy24]

Looking at Coronavirus Update (Live): 335,403 Cases and 14,611 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer looks like top 10 hit had a fall in new cases detected compared To Saturday except USA
Let’s hope this continues it might be a start of a trend in some of the country’s....

 

[kyzhk]

I wonder if this pandemic could bring awareness to the general public how much more unnecessary health risk we are exposed to due to air pollution in city (looking at you, ICE car).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What about extrapolating out the deaths?

That is obviously a rational statistical observation, go ahead and extrapolate.

 

[Lessmog]

So, second attempt posting this (first one seems to have been disappeared):

About | Qlife

Looks like a perfect fit for the present need, provided a good reagent can be developed. Which is of course the poodle's kernel, as it were. Follows the "give away razor, sell the blades" model. Not necessarily for profit at this time; once established on the mass market that handy little thing could test for almost anything.

Google Theranos and Elizabeth Holmes for a very cautionary tale. Not saying this is like Theranos, but reading the website I get a feeling of deja vu.

You may be right, I honestly don't know. Who really can tell what companies plug duds vs good stuff, before it is tested? There must be many other hopefuls out there. First out the gate has an advantage for big money.

 

[Norbert]

Yes, deaths are still very low in Germany, less than a 100 for almost 25000 recorded infections. Possibly related to the very high ratio of ICU to population.

Yes, people are voluntarily staying in doors and have been avoiding unnecessary social contact.

But this is Germany. Do you imagine that the same conditions will/do apply in the USA?

Doesn't Bavaria have a mandatory stay-at-home rule, since Saturday, as well? (Except to go to groceries etc, or to work)? And is actually handing out fines?

 

[SageBrush]

That is obviously a rational statistical observation, go ahead and extrapolate.

I have; the growth rate in general tracks total infections when a few weeks of data are looked at.
This is why I like log normal graphs. The similar slopes are very easy to see.