Coronavirus

[avoigt]

The big picture:

Asia: Number in China, South Korea and Taiwan in addition to other Asian countries are under control. China (5th day no domestic cases) goes back to normal live lifting restrictions like public transport in the former hot spots and GF3 is already above the production units they have been before the crisis. Hundreds of suppliers deliver and Tesla GF3 is operational continues ramping. Cars are delivered too.

In Europe we have first promising signals of new infection going down in the last 1 to 3 days partly in a row like in Switzerland but also other countries look quite okay in the last days including Germany (data may be adjusted Tuesday), France, Spain and even Italy did show yesterday decreasing new infections.

Its too early to call it a victory but I recommend everybody always to look a new cases versus the last days and weeks to understand the future and not at active cases. The media is messing that up and creates panic with actually misleading reporting. People just don't understand statistics and how to read data. If this first numbers stabilize I would have hope that although the peak of active cases will still be ahead the path will right after decrease and only get s better from there. It also would be a prove that the measures taken in Europe work as we know it worked in Asia.

NA: The US is still increasing and likely will for a while. I am happy to see drastic measures in California because I believe that the right path to be the earliest finding the path out of this mess. Why should the measures that worked in Europe not work in California? If they do, Fremont may be early in restarting production compares to other states in the US. There are a few states I am concerned about and expect high death toll for a variety of reasons but even they will get it under control sooner or later. It will get more ugly until it gets better unfortunately so be emotionally prepared.

Because the situation won't be understood and people only looking at total or active cases I expect many people not to understand that Asia is doing well and Europe hopefully better too. If thats the case its just a question of time until the US will recover as well.

The uncertainty will cause many to sell but there is a ton of money at the sideline waiting for a bargain too. IOW I am actually positive we will get through this and I am also positive that this is a great buy opportunity for a long term investor. Th embarked is already oversold and with more selling pressure the pendulum will swing back very quickly and for most impossible to time.

Also, I agree to the analyses of Papafox that $350 may be a resistance and could be tested again. Ark Invest did do heavy buying at that level. If we fall through no one knows but that would be even more a bargain.

I bought the last time at $190 so why should I sell now? Profit taking? For what? I don't see a reason to sell a single share.

The upside chances are much larger than the downside risk. Ark did not change their price target for 2024 and neither did I.

Never forget the big picture. Rocky times ahead but stay calm and rational.

Tesla will get strengthened through this crisis.

 

[lascavarian]

I get a grocery delivery. I store at room temperature most of it for 5 days before handling hoping most virus is dead after 5 days.

Items that go to the freezer are the question. Does 5 days in the freezer preserve the virus, kill the virus or what?

Can’t find much useful data on the virus in the freezer. Is it inactivated by freezing?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I think there were significantly more infections weeks ago.

Do explain further. I can’t wrap my head around the logic that would lead to this conclusion. Unless you mean when Wuhan was at its peak - but even that we likely are now exceeding that even within the United States.

Texas Gov. Abbott says he has no plans of issuing statewide ‘shelter-in-place’ order

Ouch. That is going to cost a few lives later. Oh well.

We still don’t know the mortality rate of this virus.

We just know that so many people get sick, it collapses health care systems in a matter of weeks when left unchecked.

This virus is totally beatable. Just requires the right approach and the right plan and the patience to stick with the measures for a bit. We would have just a couple weeks more if Trump had made the obviously correct choice a couple weeks ago. But as it is, assuming correct decisions are actually made this week, we’re likely about 5-6 weeks from the peak (nationwide - by then New York and California and Washington should be well on the road to recovery, though they may have to block entry to cities by non-residents to avoid viral contamination from slow states).

Corollary to this optimism is: With the appropriate early federal response, leadership, and preparation (which was totally do-able!), we never would have had to do a shutdown.

 

[avoigt]

I get a grocery delivery. I store at room temperature most of it for 5 days before handling hoping most virus is dead after 5 days.

Items that go to the freezer are the question. Does 5 days in the freezer preserve the virus, kill the virus or what?

Can’t find much useful data on the virus in the freezer. Is it inactivated by freezing?

The virus did only survive in an in vitro situation a few days but in normal condition remain only a few hours and you need to have a very strong concentration I it to get infected too. So, everything should be clean after a few hours.

Also there is a huge difference German top experts explain about getting the virus through e.g. your fingers and breathing it in. If you get infected by touching the virus settles in your mouth and nose area first and your white body sells and antibody and some other army members start building and fight against it before it can get into your lungs. Those cases are usually the mild ones.

If you breath it in because you stand very close to someone infected the virus my get directly deep into your lungs and settles there without your internal army ready to fight. The are the cases assumed even at young people that are severe and in many cases deadly.

lessons learned is keep good distance to other people for a while.

 

[jerry33]

I get a grocery delivery. I store at room temperature most of it for 5 days before handling hoping most virus is dead after 5 days.

Items that go to the freezer are the question. Does 5 days in the freezer preserve the virus, kill the virus or what?

Can’t find much useful data on the virus in the freezer. Is it inactivated by freezing?

Cooking the food to 70 C (158 F) is enough to kill the virus according to @SageBrush. I don't believe the virus penetrates the food. 70 C is actually lower than is required to kill bacteria.

 

[SO16]

Do explain further. I can’t wrap my head around the logic that would lead to this conclusion. Unless you mean when Wuhan was at its peak - but even that we likely are now exceeding that even within the United States.



Ouch. That is going to cost a few lives later. Oh well.



We just know that so many people get sick, it collapses health care systems in a matter of weeks when left unchecked.

This virus is totally beatable. Just requires the right approach and the right plan and the patience to stick with the measures for a bit. We would have just a couple weeks more if Trump had made the obviously correct choice a couple weeks ago. But as it is, assuming correct decisions are actually made this week, we’re likely about 5-6 weeks from the peak (nationwide - by then New York and California and Washington should be well on the road to recovery, though they may have to block entry to cities by non-residents to avoid viral contamination from slow states).

Corollary to this optimism is: With the appropriate early federal response, leadership, and preparation (which was totally do-able!), we never would have had to do a shutdown.

Yes I’m well aware of that. I work at a hospital. Did my post make it sound like it should go unchecked?

 

[bkp_duke]

I think there were significantly more infections weeks ago. There's a fair amount of evidence that quite a few people who are infected have no symptoms and more have cases so mild the people who had it thought it was something else. Some of the early deaths were attributed to normal pneumonia. The symptoms of this can be mistaken for a lot of other health problems so when nobody is looking for it and the serious cases are small, they get lost in the noise.



There seem to be quite a bit out there from reputable sites about the higher mutation rate of RNA viruses including these:
Complexities of Viral Mutation Rates

Why are RNA virus mutation rates so damn high?

But even if you're right and the virus is not mutating fast, any given infection chain can die out if it doesn't find fertile ground. ie it stops finding new hosts.

BECAUSE MOST RNA VIRUSES DO NOT HAVE PROOFREADING MECHANISMS

Coronaviruses DO HAVE proofreading mechanisms built right into their replication machinery. It's one of the unique features of coronaviruses, and also why their mutations rates are much lower than other RNA viruses.

Please stop posting things you don't have knowledge of and are clearly just resorting to just googling it to defend your position. You are completely wrong here. I'm a molecular biologist, I used to have to manipulate adenoviruses in my work, I'm extremely familiar with all of this.

 

[bkp_duke]

I also wonder what number of deaths would be "acceptable" to the skeptics. 1 million? 500,000? When does the loss of human life become "okay" and we can just carry on and let the virus spread freely through our populations instead of actively trying to control it? What kind of inhumanity must you exhibit before you're willing to let a certain number of people die just to protect whatever economic growth you demand and whatever portfolio value you have?

You think you are seeing pushback NOW? Just wait till we HAVE a vaccine and the tiny but extremely vocal anti-vaxer community goes nuts. We have a few of those in our area and they are already posting gov conspiracy theories about SARS-CoV-2 and the gov wanting to inject everyone with a "new mind control drug".

 

[SO16]

You think you are seeing pushback NOW? Just wait till we HAVE a vaccine and the tiny but extremely vocal anti-vaxer community goes nuts. We have a few of those in our area and they are already posting gov conspiracy theories about SARS-CoV-2 and the gov wanting to inject everyone with a "new mind control drug".

Not surprising. But Anti-Vaxers seem to have more influence when people forget about why we have vaccines in the first place. (Ie for illnesses years ago.). This CV situation should be fairly fresh in people’s minds when the vaccine comes out and will probably be well received on the whole.

 

[bkp_duke]

That's not how it works. We have a finite supply of 87 year old diabetics. My apologies for being so cavalier, but this is getting absurd.

Problem is, we are a fat, cardiovascular poorly-conditioned society. For this reason, in the US, we are seeing much higher death rates in the 20-50 age group than other countries had. There are plenty of "targets" for this virus besides the 80+ group.
Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.

 

[SO16]

Problem is, we are a fat, cardiovascular poorly-conditioned society. For this reason, in the US, we are seeing much higher death rates in the 20-50 age group than other countries had. There are plenty of "targets" for this virus besides the 80+ group.
Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.

Not to mention the vapers.

 

[mswlogo]

If you are not sheltering at home check this out.

Twitter

 

[aubreymcfato]

Italy seems to be worst hit (around 5500 deaths) and there are approximately 28 million people in Northern Italy. World has some 7 billion people. If the situation over the entire world would be similar, we would get (7 billion:28 million)*5500 = 1.4 million deaths. Assuming that the infection is in the middle of it’s course now in Italy, we would get 1.4*2 = 2.8 million deaths world wide. Add another 50% to be on the safe side and we get 1.5*2.8 = 4.2 million deaths.

So half of the annual deaths caused by smoking and the same as outdoor air pollution. My country just increased the price of cigarettes by a few cents. But they are flushing the economy down the toilet because of this.

Fortunately, Italy is not all the same, regarding deaths.
Lombardy has been the most hit, for many reasons. I already said this, but let me repeat:
* first outbreak, so they were not prepared at all
* many plants still open until *tomorrow* (the association of industries, in Italy, has hundreds of deaths on the conscience¹)
* health system semi-collapse, with a lot of infected doctors and nurses
* a lot of nosocomial infection

You can check the data yourself here:
Coronavirus Italia

¹ I know this sounds a marxist statement in a forum like this, but I feel like other countries, even US, acted more promptly on this. The single fact that Tesla was closed now is something. In italy workers had to take shuttles and public transport when the body count was in the hundreds... It's messed up.

 

[cusetownusa]

Universal healthcare would have had no impact upon Coronavirus.

No healthcare system in the WORLD is designed to be able to mitigate a once in 100 year pandemic.

Here's to hoping that Italy is turning the corner. Their trend-line on my Excel graph is now below 10% new cases per day (cases_today - cases_yesterday) / cases_yesterday. I thought they had turned the corner last week in the 3500 cases/day range. Now they're in the 5000 cases/day range.

I don't think you can make any assumptions on the US data out on worldometers.info because testing has increased significantly. That reasoning applies to both new cases and deaths because a test can remap a death to CV (e.g. someone dies of "pneumonia" then their test comes back positive for CV). Using the total cases numbers as is, the trend of the daily growth rate here is positive ... not good! However, we're basically only looking at NY, and NYC in particular, because they totally dominate the US case numbers now (an order of magnitude higher number than any other state). US death rate is 1.3% of total cases (452 / 34,717).

WA has a nice website with their data. I think other states should standardize on their website. Anyway, their daily growth % has been in the 10-20% range for a week.

It would be really nice to have a breakdown of who is being tested, both here in the US and overseas. For example, NY has a whopping total case number of 16,900 while the surrounding states (CT+MA+NJ, similar total population to NY) have only 2783 (most of that in NJ).

Data:
United States Coronavirus: 34,717 Cases and 452 Deaths - Worldometer
Coronavirus tracker in Washington State - Washington State Hospital Association

Here in NYS testing has ramped up dramatically. While I am not a Cuomo fan, I do applaud him for being extremely aggressive in locking down test kits and ramping up testing throughout the state. Next step is to get the time for results to come back to less than a day.

 

[avoigt]

I did collect some data from Europe from Wroldometer to give a better understanding how the countries developed versus their peak new cases day.

Some countries do adjust data later and e.g. Germany confirmed that some weekend data is missing too but since man countries had a day at least yesterday with a lower new cases number than peak its interested to look at. Also have a look at the days since peak day which give a good overview how long the country is below that highest number.

The picture from yesterday looks pretty consistent with just 3 outlier but the next days will bring us more clarity I believe.

Source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 351,705 Cases and 15,361 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[NicoV]

I did collect some data from Europe from Wroldometer to give a better understanding how the countries developed versus their peak new cases day.

Some countries do adjust data later and e.g. Germany confirmed that some weekend data is missing too but since man countries had a day at least yesterday with a lower new cases number than peak its interested to look at. Also have a look at the days since peak day which give a good overview how long the country is below that highest number.

The picture from yesterday looks pretty consistent with just 3 outlier but the next days will bring us more clarity I believe.

Source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 351,705 Cases and 15,361 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - WorldometerView attachment 524653

New cases in Belgium are down significantly today, only 342 new cases, less than 10% of the total.

 

[SageBrush]

Does 5 days in the freezer preserve the virus

probably

 

[Dr. J]

if you publish unprofessional view questioning that - you get shaming and potentially ban (is it what happened to another medium article from unknown marketing guru stating that the panic is overblown - I do not see it anymore by the link).

That article was basically bullsh**. The author started with preconceived notions, selectively quoted and misquoted legitimate sources, and failed to construct a logical argument to support his thesis. I don't know the criteria Medium uses for publication, but I think they should have left it up, along with the critical comments that accompanied it.

 

[Compton]

Fortunately, Italy is not all the same, regarding deaths.
Lombardy has been the most hit, for many reasons. I already said this, but let me repeat:
* first outbreak, so they were not prepared at all
* many plants still open until *tomorrow* (the association of industries, in Italy, has hundreds of deaths on the conscience¹)
* health system semi-collapse, with a lot of infected doctors and nurses
* a lot of nosocomial infection

You can check the data yourself here:
Coronavirus Italia

¹ I know this sounds a marxist statement in a forum like this, but I feel like other countries, even US, acted more promptly on this. The single fact that Tesla was closed now is something. In italy workers had to take shuttles and public transport when the body count was in the hundreds... It's messed up.

Yeah, I know. I was just spitballing some kind of rough upper limit to compare it with other more common causes of mortality.

 

[deonb]

Can’t find much useful data on the virus in the freezer. Is it inactivated by freezing?

If it's similar to other coronaviruses it can survive 2 years in a freezer.