Coronavirus

[MXLRplus]

Yes - common cold is still common. In Seattle only 7% of symptomatic patients (and contacts) are testing positive.


I'd cut some slack to Greta. In her circumstance she should assume she has Covid-19 and isolate, which she is doing. I won't be surprised if she & her father actually do have Covid-19.

BTW, anyone has seen data on what % of travelers with symptoms tested positive for covid ?

People all over the world are isolating WITHOUT symptoms. The illness she is experiencing is because she likes to travel regardless of how it might harm others. Celebrities are doing this a lot too. She has an excuse. They do not.

 

[linux-works]

dangerous people risking lives of others:

Liberty University students returning to campus dorms amid coronavirus shutdowns

"The virus causes only minor flu-like symptoms in most people, who recover in a matter of weeks."


oh, its religion. so, in the US, it gets a free pass...

dammit. arrest that idiot. this is no time for imaginary sky daddies. LIVES ARE AT RISK.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Data is from March 23rd, not today (numbers have changed):

Iceland is another interesting test case. If I read the story correctly, it sounds like they have their health system conducting screening of 4197 people (with something like a 10% positive rate, (473-48 = 425 positive out of 9768-5571 = 4197 health service tests)) in symptomatic cases , and another 5571 tests conducted by deCode Genetics, with "random" population sampling. (It's very unclear how they achieved the population sampling, and that is critical to the conclusions.)

The "random" population sampling identified about 0.86% population prevalance of asymptomatic cases. (48/5571). I'm assuming all of those people were showing no symptoms otherwise they would have been tested by the health care system (article is unclear).

Iceland's population is 364k, so this would imply in the simplest interpretation that there are ~2700 = (0.86%-0.13%)*364k unidentified cases wandering around Iceland, while the actual identified symptomatic cases is just 425. So that would imply tons of unidentified community spread - so much so that the outbreak would be impossible to contain without complete population screening I would think. But I have my doubts about deCode's randomness. Maybe people submitting to random testing would be more likely to be international travelers, and have a higher disease prevalence? Or, even more important, would people who feel like they have a little bit of a scratchy throat or a sniffle but won't admit it be more likely to submit to "random" testing? It did appear to require effort on the part of the people submitting to testing - they have to take a trip to get their noses swabbed - so I can't see how that would end up being random. Anyway, I can't find data or a story on the sampling method.

COVID-19: First results of the voluntary screening on Iceland - Nordic Life Science – the leading Nordic life science news service

Anyway, something to keep an eye on as they continue to conduct random sampling. We'll see how that random sampling % tracks. I wouldn't be surprised to see it track down to 0.2% as they test more people - though of course as long as the outbreak continues it will always be increasing with time...though some people will just have antibodies and no virus. It's a tricky problem.

 

[EVNow]

This paper found that Taxifolin might be a good already available drug for treating covid-19. Why has everyone missed this? Inhibitors for Novel Coronavirus Protease Identified by Virtual Screening of 687 Million Compounds

Apart from what @bkp_duke said - one way to think about it is like with Lithium Batteries. You know how many "breakthroughs" are announced regularly only to fizzle out later.

Given the great number of people it might get used on, even small % of serious side effects can actually make it worse than the disease itself, given cfr of 1% or less.

 

[bkp_duke]

Apart from what @bkp_duke said - one way to think about it is like with Lithium Batteries. You know how many "breakthroughs" are announced regularly only to fizzle out later.

Given the great number of people it might get used on, even small % of serious side effects can actually make it worse than the disease itself, given cfr of 1% or less.

I don't want to diminish that finding a compound with proper chemical binding in silicion is a vital step. It is one step that usually takes months to a year or two. Last I heard basically every supercomputer available had been re-tasked looking for these compounds to speed that process up, and that is significant.

Now the researchers will have to take those candidates and perform the in vitro studies, before in vivo studies can commence.

 

[MXLRplus]

dangerous people risking lives of others:

Liberty University students returning to campus dorms amid coronavirus shutdowns

"The virus causes only minor flu-like symptoms in most people, who recover in a matter of weeks."


oh, its religion. so, in the US, it gets a free pass...

dammit. arrest that idiot. this is no time for imaginary sky daddies. LIVES ARE AT RISK.

If you paid rent for a semester, and you are broke, do you think it's a lot safer living in your car and showering in public restrooms?

Here is what is happening in California: You stay in your dorm, avoid public gatherings. All classes are online now.

However, the curriculum is limited and it's 100% tuition for mediocre classes that the staff is not prepared or equipped for.

I can guarantee you that not all Californian's are Christian whether or not you choose to believe it.

 

[bkp_duke]

If you paid rent for a semester, and you are broke, do you think it's a lot safer living in your car and showering in public restrooms?

Here is what is happening in California: You stay in your dorm, avoid public gatherings. All classes are online now.

However, the curriculum is limited and it's 100% tuition for mediocre classes that the staff is not prepared or equipped for.

I thought the universities were sending the kids all home. The one a few miles from our house looks like a ghost town.

 

[linux-works]

or mediocre classes that the staff is not prepared or equipped for.

I can guarantee you that not all Californian's are Christian whether or not you choose to believe it.

what does that have to do with anything? who said anything about california?

please try to keep up.

 

[MXLRplus]

I thought the universities were sending the kids all home. The one a few miles from our house looks like a ghost town.

My kids are in California, so I wanted them home. We still have to pay room and board though. Many of their friends were still in dorms. The campuses themselves have not actually shuttered, but they are ghost towns.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Data is from March 23rd, not today (numbers have changed):

Iceland is another interesting test case. If I read the story correctly, it sounds like they have their health system conducting screening of 4197 people (with something like a 10% positive rate, (473-48 = 425 positive out of 9768-5571 = 4197 health service tests)) in symptomatic cases , and another 5571 tests conducted by deCode Genetics, with "random" population sampling. (It's very unclear how they achieved the population sampling, and that is critical to the conclusions.)

The "random" population sampling identified about 0.86% population prevalance of asymptomatic cases. (48/5571). I'm assuming all of those people were showing no symptoms otherwise they would have been tested by the health care system (article is unclear).

Iceland's population is 364k, so this would imply in the simplest interpretation that there are ~2700 = (0.86%-0.13%)*364k unidentified cases wandering around Iceland, while the actual identified symptomatic cases is just 425. So that would imply tons of unidentified community spread - so much so that the outbreak would be impossible to contain without complete population screening I would think. But I have my doubts about deCode's randomness. Maybe people submitting to random testing would be more likely to be international travelers, and have a higher disease prevalence? Or, even more important, would people who feel like they have a little bit of a scratchy throat or a sniffle but won't admit it be more likely to submit to "random" testing? It did appear to require effort on the part of the people submitting to testing - they have to take a trip to get their noses swabbed - so I can't see how that would end up being random. Anyway, I can't find data or a story on the sampling method.

COVID-19: First results of the voluntary screening on Iceland - Nordic Life Science – the leading Nordic life science news service

Anyway, something to keep an eye on as they continue to conduct random sampling. We'll see how that random sampling % tracks. I wouldn't be surprised to see it track down to 0.2% as they test more people - though of course as long as the outbreak continues it will always be increasing with time...though some people will just have antibodies and no virus. It's a tricky problem.

I'm pretty sure deCode's testing is self-selected. As you said, this biases toward people who traveled recently, who "feel something coming on" and hypochondriacs. The latter are pretty random, I guess Anyway, a different article I read said they test anyone who registers online. They had to slow testing recently due to a shortage of swabs.

 

[MXLRplus]

what does that have to do with anything? who said anything about california?

please try to keep up.

Online classes and living in dorms in California is intelligent but for other areas they must be literally "idiots".
I know very, very little, but one thing I've learned is the dumber people are, the more likely they are to call others idiots.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I take great issue with her ASSUMPTION that she had it. That is specifically what I was referring to.

So now people are being too cautious? Do you think it's possible you've been hyper-focused on this for 8 days straight, aren't sleeping enough, are stressed beyond belief, and have gone from panicked to completely irrational?

 

[bkp_duke]

So now people are being too cautious? Do you think it's possible you've been hyper-focused on this for 8 days straight, aren't sleeping enough, are stressed beyond belief, and have gone from panicked to completely irrational?

In a word, no.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So fast forward a few weeks....

If I were to contract coronavirus, test positive, exhibit symptoms, and then recover....what danger would I be to others? Once I have the antibodies in place I'm good to go for making out with other recovered(or even potentially infected) persons, right?

Thinking down the line for my "recovered positives only" happy hour neighborhood BBQ in mid to late April.

 

[bkp_duke]

So fast forward a few weeks....

If I were to contract coronavirus, test positive, exhibit symptoms, and then recover....what danger would I be to others? Once I have the antibodies in place I'm good to go for making out with other recovered(or even potentially infected) persons, right?

Thinking down the line for my "recovered positives only" happy hour neighborhood BBQ in mid to late April.

You would need to have strong documentation (i.e.a PCR test for SARS-CoV-2) to confirm that you were actually positive with this virus.

Then, to verify you were no longer infectious, a follow up SARS-CoV-2 repeat PCR. This is necessary because a significant number of people originally in quarantine were shown to have a prolonged viral shedding phase with little symptoms.

Once you have the repeat test showing you cleared the infection, you should be considered immune. Hospitals would then probably be knocking down your door asking you to donate plasma so they could harvest your antibodies to treat the sickest patients in the hospitals.

 

[dhanson865]

Here are our restrictions - not a pretty picture at all!

View attachment 524963

I doubt that map is anywhere near accurate as we have restrictions in Tennessee and it's not shown there.

 

[Causalien]

So there's basically a global event that happened from last week to now and it is basically the massive return of all citizen to their country of origin (or what they consider the place they will be attached to). We are seeing unprecedent moves where citizens return after 10~20 years abroad.

In any case, in this huge wave and return, we get a sample of all the infected from different countries and some really stood out as having a higher percentage than the official reported numbers.

Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, Thailand, Philipines, India. These are also the countries where if you look at the death to cases data, it doesn't really match other countries. Even though they are really low.

Of course UK, USA and Europe, but we already know that from the data.

In any case, I'd like to buy put options on their respective ETF, however, option pricing are extremely expensive right now and there is also the problem of this weird, almost 100% correlation of all these country ETF with the general market. Suggesting that pirce discovery is not functioning correctly right now.

 

[Feathermerchan]

I read an article where Iceland is testing a lot (more per capita than SK) and has found about 10 unreported cases for each reported case. Most are asymptomatic or mild cold like symptoms.

Iceland is Doing Science — ~50% of People with COVID-19 Not Showing Symptoms, ~50% Have Very Moderate Cold Symptoms [UPDATED] | CleanTechnica

 

[EVNow]

So fast forward a few weeks....

If I were to contract coronavirus, test positive, exhibit symptoms, and then recover....what danger would I be to others? Once I have the antibodies in place I'm good to go for making out with other recovered(or even potentially infected) persons, right?

Thinking down the line for my "recovered positives only" happy hour neighborhood BBQ in mid to late April.

I doubt you will have that many recovered covid patients in your neighborhood by then.

 

[EVNow]

We are seeing unprecedent moves where citizens return after 10~20 years abroad.

Not seeing that. Only people on short term visa whose projects got over have gone back, from what I can see here.

Probably different in China & Iran.