SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Data through Mar 30
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Turkey
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Switzerland
Italy
Least effective:
US
Turkey
Best Benders
Switzerland
Italy
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
More updates from the frontline doctors who considered information available and made intelligent decisions re HCQ
Opinion | An Update on the Coronavirus Treatment
Highlights:
In an article last week, I discussed a promising drug combination to treat the disease. There is now new data supporting this treatment. Since then, Kansas City area physicians, including Joe Brewer, Dan Hinthorn and me, continue to treat many patients, and some have shown improvement. Major medical centers including the University of Washington and Mass General have added hydroxychloroquine to treatment options. [...]
Physicians are using two drugs in combination—hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, which I’ll abbreviate HC and AZ—to treat patients with advanced Covid-19 symptoms. We use a regimen reported in a recent open-label trial in Marseille, France, which was updated March 26, and which doctors may modify in any given case.
[...] Clinical information has also emerged from Covid treatment. During the initial Chinese outbreak, Wuhan doctors observed that patients with lupus—a disease for which HC is a common treatment—did not seem to develop Covid-19. Of 178 hospital patients who tested positive, none had lupus and none were on HC. None of this Wuhan hospital’s dermatology department’s 80 lupus patients were infected with the novel coronavirus. The Wuhan doctors hypothesized that this may be due to long-term use of HC. They treated 20 Covid-19 patients with HC. Their result: “Clinical symptoms improve significantly in 1 to 2 days. After five days of chest CT examination, 19 cases showed significant absorption improvement.”
Second, consider AZ—the antibiotic marketed as Z-Pak—combined with HC. The French study showed that 57% of 14 Covid-19 patients receiving HC without AZ tested negative for the virus on a nasal swab on day six. But 100% of the six patients who received both HC and AZ tested negative on day six. Compare that with 16 infected patients at another hospital who didn’t receive either treatment: only 12% tested negative on day six. These are small samples, but significant.
The authors of the French study last week published the results of an additional 80 hospitalized patients receiving a combination of HC and AZ. By day eight of treatment, 93% showed a negative nasopharyngeal swab for the virus. “This allowed patients to rapidly be discharged from highly contagious wards with a mean length of stay of five days,” the authors write. “Other teams should urgently evaluate this cost-effective therapeutic strategy, to both avoid the spread of the disease and treat patients as soon as possible before severe respiratory irreversible complications take hold.” I agree.Here's an excerpt from French microbiologist Didier Raoult's second paper:
In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin we noted a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74 year- old patient still in intensive care unit.
A rapid fall of nasopharyngeal viral load tested by qPCR was noted, with 83% negative at Day7, and 93% at Day8. Virus cultures from patient respiratory samples were negative in 97.5% patients at Day5.
This allowed patients to rapidly de discharge from highly contagious wards with a mean length of stay of five days.
We believe other teams should urgently evaluate this cost-effective therapeutic strategy, to both avoid the spread of the disease and treat patients as soon as possible before severe respiratory irreversible complications take hold.France 24 reports that "critics say such results were fairly typical of the virus":
Two Chinese studies have shown that "10 days after the start of symptoms, 90 percent of people who have a moderate form (of the disease) have a controlled viral load," epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola, of the French health research institute Inserm, told AFP.
Several large-scale studies are currently being carried out in France and America to determine the drug's efficacy at both preventing and curing the virus.
In the meantime, the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services announced Sunday that "the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to BARDA to allow hydroxychloroquine sulfate and chloroquine phosphate products donated to the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to hospitalized teen and adult patients with COVID-19, as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible."
And a recent review of the literature, such as it is, was assembled here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042366v1.full.pdf
concluding:
"The results of in vitro studies and those of recent clinical trials using CQ and HCQ in COVID-19 infection are quite promising. An international strategy for allowing the use of promising drugs like CQ and HCQ for COVID-19 should be made. Considering the low cost, easy availability, and minimal adverse effects, CQ and HCQ should be prescribed to COVID-19 patients under medical supervision."
Good thing some doctors are able to make intelligent decisions under uncertainty and with imperfect information and act instead of sitting on their hands waiting for RCTs peer-reviewed and published in Nature.
Adversity and uncertainty helps distinguish people who can rise to the occasion and act intelligently, vs. people who just criticize.
Opinion | An Update on the Coronavirus Treatment
Highlights:
In an article last week, I discussed a promising drug combination to treat the disease. There is now new data supporting this treatment. Since then, Kansas City area physicians, including Joe Brewer, Dan Hinthorn and me, continue to treat many patients, and some have shown improvement. Major medical centers including the University of Washington and Mass General have added hydroxychloroquine to treatment options. [...]
Physicians are using two drugs in combination—hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, which I’ll abbreviate HC and AZ—to treat patients with advanced Covid-19 symptoms. We use a regimen reported in a recent open-label trial in Marseille, France, which was updated March 26, and which doctors may modify in any given case.
[...] Clinical information has also emerged from Covid treatment. During the initial Chinese outbreak, Wuhan doctors observed that patients with lupus—a disease for which HC is a common treatment—did not seem to develop Covid-19. Of 178 hospital patients who tested positive, none had lupus and none were on HC. None of this Wuhan hospital’s dermatology department’s 80 lupus patients were infected with the novel coronavirus. The Wuhan doctors hypothesized that this may be due to long-term use of HC. They treated 20 Covid-19 patients with HC. Their result: “Clinical symptoms improve significantly in 1 to 2 days. After five days of chest CT examination, 19 cases showed significant absorption improvement.”
Second, consider AZ—the antibiotic marketed as Z-Pak—combined with HC. The French study showed that 57% of 14 Covid-19 patients receiving HC without AZ tested negative for the virus on a nasal swab on day six. But 100% of the six patients who received both HC and AZ tested negative on day six. Compare that with 16 infected patients at another hospital who didn’t receive either treatment: only 12% tested negative on day six. These are small samples, but significant.
The authors of the French study last week published the results of an additional 80 hospitalized patients receiving a combination of HC and AZ. By day eight of treatment, 93% showed a negative nasopharyngeal swab for the virus. “This allowed patients to rapidly be discharged from highly contagious wards with a mean length of stay of five days,” the authors write. “Other teams should urgently evaluate this cost-effective therapeutic strategy, to both avoid the spread of the disease and treat patients as soon as possible before severe respiratory irreversible complications take hold.” I agree.Here's an excerpt from French microbiologist Didier Raoult's second paper:
In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin we noted a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74 year- old patient still in intensive care unit.
A rapid fall of nasopharyngeal viral load tested by qPCR was noted, with 83% negative at Day7, and 93% at Day8. Virus cultures from patient respiratory samples were negative in 97.5% patients at Day5.
This allowed patients to rapidly de discharge from highly contagious wards with a mean length of stay of five days.
We believe other teams should urgently evaluate this cost-effective therapeutic strategy, to both avoid the spread of the disease and treat patients as soon as possible before severe respiratory irreversible complications take hold.France 24 reports that "critics say such results were fairly typical of the virus":
Two Chinese studies have shown that "10 days after the start of symptoms, 90 percent of people who have a moderate form (of the disease) have a controlled viral load," epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola, of the French health research institute Inserm, told AFP.
Several large-scale studies are currently being carried out in France and America to determine the drug's efficacy at both preventing and curing the virus.
In the meantime, the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services announced Sunday that "the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to BARDA to allow hydroxychloroquine sulfate and chloroquine phosphate products donated to the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to hospitalized teen and adult patients with COVID-19, as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible."
And a recent review of the literature, such as it is, was assembled here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042366v1.full.pdf
concluding:
"The results of in vitro studies and those of recent clinical trials using CQ and HCQ in COVID-19 infection are quite promising. An international strategy for allowing the use of promising drugs like CQ and HCQ for COVID-19 should be made. Considering the low cost, easy availability, and minimal adverse effects, CQ and HCQ should be prescribed to COVID-19 patients under medical supervision."
Good thing some doctors are able to make intelligent decisions under uncertainty and with imperfect information and act instead of sitting on their hands waiting for RCTs peer-reviewed and published in Nature.
Adversity and uncertainty helps distinguish people who can rise to the occasion and act intelligently, vs. people who just criticize.
Quick question: Is the graph normalized by population? Or is this total number of cases independent of population?
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Nope
I thought about using per capita data but the all important slopes do not change so I decided to show global burden of disease. The outbreaks started at different times so a simple comparison of positive tests in each country has little value -- per capita or not.
Put another way: if these Western and Middle Eastern countries do not bend their curves, they reach over 50% infection in 3 - 6 weeks
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Dr. J
Active Member
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I was thinking about the Icelandic ReCode data. This self-selected group has a marked drop in group infectivity from (if I remember the data correctly) 0.86% to 0.58% over a ~ week of interval testing.
It is not reasonable to extend this drop to the country at large, but I do think it says volumes about the ability of a group to avoid infection if they are compliant with smart public health measures. I am going to write to ReCode and ask them to include in their questions to their group an in depth survey of behaviors, and specifically face mask use.
It is not reasonable to extend this drop to the country at large, but I do think it says volumes about the ability of a group to avoid infection if they are compliant with smart public health measures. I am going to write to ReCode and ask them to include in their questions to their group an in depth survey of behaviors, and specifically face mask use.
@Unpilot
I’m pretty much under the flight path of RSW, abt 20 miles NNW, I’m seeing extremely light traffic, almost no contrails, much clearer air (Venus is extremely bright in early evening)
Thanks for asking.
The column label in the chart says "no. of passengers" but the article makes clear that it includes both passengers and crew. For example:
"Upon returning to Yokohama, Japan, on February 3rd, the ship was held in quarantine, during which testing was performed in order to measure COVID-19 infections among the 3,711 passengers and crew members onboard."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf
Other articles confirm 3711 is both passengers and crew (2666 passengers and 1045 crewmembers).
3063 of the 3711 were tested, starting with older passengers and those with symptoms. So it appears that not only was the population strongly skewed toward older people, but the data was skewed even further by testing more of the older and/or symptomatic people on board.
Note: 3711 is the correct number of passengers and crew (not 3797 per my earlier post).
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MXLRplus
Active Member
I've been shopping once on March 11th. That was enough for me it was a zoo, and it was before the first case in the area. When I visit customers, I wear a face mask and gloves, and I don't go inside their building. I will be visiting a medical research facility in about two hours. It will be interesting to see if Blizzard Entertainment is in operation, they are a nearby video gamemaker.
A solar supplier in NY emailed me last Friday to indicate they are open. Crazy.
Fixed it for ya
Seriously the air is cleaner.... so just a small sliver of a silver lining.
MXLRplus
Active Member
Diamond Princess info - The two largest cruise lines that cater to the over 50 crowd are Celebrity and Princess. And the demographic moves even older on two week cruises since a single ticket can be over $10k for the nice suites. So expect to spend $30k for a couple and 3 weeks off work.
The main difference between unions and companies is who gets the money: the greedy CEO or organized crime. Neither care much about the workers unless they can see a profit for themselves in it.
ChadS
Last tank of gas: March 2009
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Does that mean you conduct all your business outside ?
If not, then where, and do you wear a face mask wherever that is ?
Do you wash your hands after social encounters ?
I'm not trying to badger you, I'm curious
Problem is that many politicians would love to see people die. Our Lt. Governor said that old people would be happy to die so that their children or grandchildren could have a good economy. This guy isn't even human.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
This really is a must read article in LA Times. How aerosoled CV was spread through a singing choir, none of whom had any symptoms, who were practicing following guidelines and 45 ended up positive three weeks later and two now dead.
“Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected“ by Richard Read, March 29, 2020.
“The deadly outbreak among members of a choir has stunned health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.....”
60 people came to a choir practice. Now dozens have COVID-19 and 2 are dead. — Los Angeles Times
I tried to post the LA Times direct link (Apple News link above) but I’ve reached my limit apparently. If the above link doesn’t work maybe someone who can get access to the Times can post it as well if the one above doesn’t work.
People should be wearing masks out just like other countries. Period.
“Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected“ by Richard Read, March 29, 2020.
“The deadly outbreak among members of a choir has stunned health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.....”
60 people came to a choir practice. Now dozens have COVID-19 and 2 are dead. — Los Angeles Times
I tried to post the LA Times direct link (Apple News link above) but I’ve reached my limit apparently. If the above link doesn’t work maybe someone who can get access to the Times can post it as well if the one above doesn’t work.
People should be wearing masks out just like other countries. Period.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Perhaps he is waiting for an inheritance
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