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That has impacted the growth of testing. I suggest you do not presume from those stories that testing rates have dropped

I am not presuming as much. My statement was "may be". Another example, there was a post here that the ratio of positives recently went up from 14% to 44% or something like that. That would be an indication that at least the _relative_ testing capacity went down.
 
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Are _you_ a scientist? ;)

I am not very familiar with the Diamond Princess specifically, but the calculation is now 12 / 619 = 1.9% IFR, correct? So my very non-scientific estimate of 1.5% IFR would leave some room for age-distribution normalization, even if necessary with the "healthier" bias?
No, I'm an electrical engineer :p
Who knows?
There were about 700 people who tested positive on the Diamond Princess.
I can say with 100% confidence that the IFR and R0 are way too high for my liking.
 
From Bloomberg, what mistakes Chinese doctors said they made by sending mildly infectious people to stay-in-place at home and why Italy is in bad way now.

Italy Home Quarantine Repeats Mistake Made in China, Doctors Say
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Perhaps the Chinese are right, but I think the epidemic in the US is too far along to implement full quarantine mode now. The US would need ~ 0.5M housed today, growing at 20% daily.

I wonder when Hubei went into universal mask mode.
 
Are you playing lawyer on the internet ?

If you do not have data that shows a drop in testing then try and not add to the panic with unsupported conjecture.

I just quoted a post that there were indications that the relative testing capacity went down significantly. That does bend the curve. The same is likely to be true when PPE becomes short such that testing is reduced. A relative reduction is sufficient.

And I have no idea why that would be causing a panic.
 
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Simple. It implies that curve bending is an artefact
The prudent course of action would be to assume that curve bending is an artifact.
We know that NYC changed their testing policy to only test people who need hospitalization.
Arguably the opposite assumption could also cause "panic" since it makes the disease seem much deadlier than it is. :p
 
No, I'm an electrical engineer :p
Who knows?
There were about 700 people who tested positive on the Diamond Princess.
I can say with 100% confidence that the IFR and R0 are way too high for my liking.

700? In the linked document, Table 2 mentions 301 symp. cases and 318 asymptotic. cases. Plus, perhaps, 7 death, if they are not included. Where would the others come from?

In any case, 12 / 700 is still 1.7%. I haven't looked at R0 yet.
 
Interested in link to source article.
They use the John Hopkins data to plot graphs.

Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read

upload_2020-3-30_9-50-57.png
 
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News from Denmark: So far, so good.

- The curve has been bent - the shutdown is a success - so far!
- Sticking with the guidelines: Keep social distancing. Don't let your guard down.
- Lots of praise to danish population.
- Possible, gradual, cautious partial opening after Easter.
- Details not ready yet, but involves some kind of time-sharing: less office hours, still a lot of work from home.
- Data driven approach: nothing is ruled out. Adjustments will come.

- Talk about 'the 2nd half' of the battle (after Easter to ... next months):
  • more testing
  • health personnel testing/screening
  • broad-spectrum testing:
  • what is the general spread
  • looking for 'immunity': if you had the virus and survived you are perhaps allowed to work a lot
  • huge scale-up in testing using both local production and scaling and bought tests.

My guess/speculation re. implementation of gradual opening
Export industries: top priority
standard/normal working hours expanded from (standard) 8-17 to 06 to 20 - at least
Weekend working as well -(at least Saturday) short days
In total ~40 hours more in any given week
A lot of work from home - still. Perhaps: "Work from home but meet at office": 50/50. Or less.
If all of above is implemented, the 'base load' of people at any given time is 1/3 to 1/4 of today - massive de-risking re. contagion.

The tone:
PM struck a nice balance of hope, seriousness, and focus: A good blend of optimism but also warning: Keep obeying the guidelines! If not, the good future will not arrive.

Personal view:
  • Anything other than further tightening is good.
  • A fair chance of a gradual, controlled opening: Very good news!
  • Still cancelling my Easter with the family. Still practicing social distancing.