Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

This really is a must read article in LA Times. How aerosoled CV was spread through a singing choir, none of whom had any symptoms, who were practicing following guidelines and 45 ended up positive three weeks later and two now dead.

“Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected“ by Richard Read, March 29, 2020.

“The deadly outbreak among members of a choir has stunned health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.....”

60 people came to a choir practice. Now dozens have COVID-19 and 2 are dead. — Los Angeles Times

I tried to post the LA Times direct link (Apple News link above) but I’ve reached my limit apparently. If the above link doesn’t work maybe someone who can get access to the Times can post it as well.

People should be wearing masks. Period.

Of course people should be wearing masks ! But this choir is a bit different:

"Open you mouth about as wide as can,"
"Take in a DEEP breath, as fast you can,"
"Now, YELL"

Keep it up for an hour, cause we are better than that christian cult in S Korea
Who wudda thunk ?

 

[Daniel in SD]

2154 out of 3797 Diamond Princess passengers were over the age of 60, per the table below.

Anyone with an ounce of objectivity would acknowledge that is skewed older and not representative of the general population.

Trying to compare to symptomatic patients who tested positive in China and Italy is pointless because the whole point of the deCODE testing is that they are the only ones testing asymptomatic patients, and older patients obviously are prone to develop symptoms much more than younger people.

This is why people should listen to scientists, not people on TMC who are literally just making stuff up as they go, much of it misleading or completely false.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf

View attachment 527427

A few of notes.
10 passengers have died now, not sure if there are still people hospitalized.
People who can take a cruise will be probably be be biased towards healthier people.
Many of the asymptomatic patients probably became symptomatic later.
The paper you posted shows older people are more likely to asymptomatic, not less.

I agree that we should let scientists determine how deadly COVID-19 is.

 

[SmartElectric]

This article is a stunningly sad example where a country like Canada with one of the highest quality of life measurements in the world can be thrust into accepting the fate of elderly nursing home patients, rapid intervention was not the order of the day, as can be seen by the quotes below.


Nine residents die, 34 staff suffer symptoms as coronavirus devastates Bobcaygeon, Ont. nursing home

Nine residents die, 34 staff suffer symptoms as coronavirus devastates Bobcaygeon, Ont. nursing home
Nurse describes a 'war zone’ that’s believed to be Ontario’s most widespread outbreak to date

outbreak spread and more staff members got sick, nobody showed up for the 3 p.m. to 11 p.m. shift on Monday, March 23. The remaining day-shift staff stayed to work a double

On Friday, March 20, with 23 residents sick, Dr. Snarr learned that tests done on three of the residents had come back positive for COVID-19. The next day, Dr. Snarr sent her letter to the Pinecrest families. The letter mentioned that Dr. Snarr had spoken to doctors at the local hospital. “They have limited resources to look after a surge of patients with COVID. They are also concerned about having COVID brought into the hospital by infected patients.”

Dr. Snarr explained in an interview that the Ross Memorial Hospital in Lindsay was absolutely willing to accept Pinecrest patients if next of kin asked for all measures to be taken, but Dr. Snarr wanted families to understand the ramifications of putting frail, sick residents on ventilators. “Even if they survived,” she said, “their quality of life would be abysmal.”

 

[SMAlset]

While chorale practice is a unique situation, given how infectious this seems to be, people are breathing it out even when they don’t know they have it. Is 6-ft distancing really enough? How about walking through where someone has been. We’ve heard that it can last in the air for I think up to 3-hrs. I wouldn’t minimalize the type of transmission shown in this news story because these guys were singing. Just saying.

 

[jerry33]

While chorale practice is a unique situation, given how infectious this seems to be, people are breathing it out even when they don’t know they have it. Is 6-ft distancing really enough? How about walking through where someone has been. We’ve heard that it can last in the air for I think up to 3-hrs. I wouldn’t minimalize the type of transmission shown in this news story because these guys were singing. Just saying.

That's why you wear a mask. For casual contact it doesn't need to be hospital grade, anything that stops the droplets will suffice. Choir practice would be a different story, you need maximum protection for that. A good idea would be to just not perform those kind of activities.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Problem is that many politicians would love to see people die. Our Lt. Governor said that old people would be happy to die so that their children or grandchildren could have a good economy. This guy isn't even human.

Which is also weird considering the oldies are the right-wing voter base.
Some tightly contested elections will have different outcomes after CV.

 

[jerry33]

Which is also weird considering the oldies are the right-wing voter base.
Some tightly contested elections will have different outcomes after CV.

The politicians around here know only two things: religious fanaticism and their bank account.

 

[Lessmog]

Perhaps he is waiting for an inheritance donation

FTFY

 

[MXLRplus]

Does that mean you conduct all your business outside ?
If not, then where, and do you wear a face mask wherever that is ?
Do you wash your hands after social encounters ?

I'm not trying to badger you, I'm curious

We work on medical devices. I can pick up the test samples and get instructions outside their building.
At our facility I ordered the lobby to be closed and a sign up put. We conduct business at the entrance of the warehouse. I set up tables to maintain distance and deliveries sit for 24h before processing.

I apologize for doubting you. It appears today that there is indeed 3 layer masks for 2 dollars each with a 3 day delivery, but not 3M or other high quality masks yet. When I checked last week to replenish, it was a joke. Every profiteer and their brother was scalping 30 day delivery masks. Nothing available in under a week (add $50 for a 1lb shipment for 1 week delivery).

I don't endorse scalping or disaster profiteering. I think those people should be imprisoned.

 

[MXLRplus]

Which is also weird considering the oldies are the right-wing voter base.
Some tightly contested elections will have different outcomes after CV.

How old do you think the hippies are now?

 

[SageBrush]

At our facility I ordered the lobby to be closed and a sign up put. We conduct business at the entrance of the warehouse. I set up tables to maintain distance and deliveries sit for 24h before processing.

Smart move.
Do the workers wear masks ? I presume that a worker and a customer are within the circle of infection

 

[DanCar]

The number of cases is obviously still growing dramatically but we are starting to bend the curve in most countries.

View attachment 527254

Interested in link to source article.

 

[Daniel in SD]

2154 out of 3797 Diamond Princess passengers were over the age of 60, per the table below.

Anyone with an ounce of objectivity would acknowledge that is skewed older and not representative of the general population.

Trying to compare to symptomatic patients who tested positive in China and Italy is pointless because the whole point of the deCODE testing is that they are the only ones testing asymptomatic patients, and older patients obviously are prone to develop symptoms much more than younger people.

This is why people should listen to scientists, not people on TMC who are literally just making stuff up as they go, much of it misleading or completely false.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf

View attachment 527427

Wikipedia has media reports of 12 deaths from COVID-19 among Diamond Princess passengers. 2020 coronavirus pandemic on cruise ships - Wikipedia

 

[SageBrush]

While chorale practice is a unique situation, given how infectious this seems to be, people are breathing it out even when they don’t know they have it. Is 6-ft distancing really enough? How about walking through where someone has been. We’ve heard that it can last in the air for I think up to 3-hrs. I wouldn’t minimalize the type of transmission shown in this news story because these guys were singing. Just saying.

I'm not minimizing anything, I'm describing to you the physics in a qualitative manner.

Regular breathing and singing loudly are vastly different in terms of dispersal and exposure. Semi-quant, people are able to generate positive and negative pressures ~ 50x that of regular breathing. That Choir was the equivalent of being surrounded by fans, and turning their lungs into vacuum cleaners.

 

[bhzmark]

More specifically, from the FDA: https://www.fda.gov/media/136534/download

Good thing that there are intelligent regulators who know what it is to consider all available evidence and make probabilistic cost/benefit intelligent decisions.

Who knows -- it may not be effective after all, or only in certain limited circumstances, or maybe something else will be much more effective; but at least for now they can see the limited evidence before them now and take action based on that rather just mocking people or pissing on ideas that they evaluated incorrectly when they first heard about them.

 

[Norbert]

Do you know of any countries that are testing less than before ?

I have read multiple times about situations in which testing became impacted by resource problems, for example by running out of PPE in the US. Might be smaller bends, I wouldn't know, but PPE problems in the US are persistent.

 

[SageBrush]

I have read multiple times about situations in which testing became impacted by resource problems, for example by running out of PPE in the US. Might be smaller bends, I wouldn't know, but PPE problems in the US are persistent.

That has impacted the growth of testing. I suggest you do not presume from those stories that testing rates have dropped

 

[linux-works]

another DIY uv-c disinfection chamber

Building a Crude UV-C Mask/PPE/IPad/Phone Disinfection Chamber (1 hour, $30, minimal tools) Part 1

 

[Norbert]

A few of notes.
10 passengers have died now, not sure if there are still people hospitalized.
People who can take a cruise will be probably be be biased towards healthier people.
Many of the asymptomatic patients probably became symptomatic later.
The paper you posted shows older people are more likely to asymptomatic, not less.

I agree that we should let scientists determine how deadly COVID-19 is.

Wikipedia has media reports of 12 deaths from COVID-19 among Diamond Princess passengers. 2020 coronavirus pandemic on cruise ships - Wikipedia

Are _you_ a scientist?

I am not very familiar with the Diamond Princess specifically, but the calculation is now 12 / 619 = 1.9% IFR, correct? So my very non-scientific estimate of 1.5% IFR would leave some room for age-distribution normalization, even if necessary with the "healthier" bias?

 

[SageBrush]

I've seen a raft of posts that use the Icelandic deCode data to conclude that we are surrounded by infectious zombies because ~ 50% of positive cases are "asymptomatic." That is an incorrect interp of the data. Below I've included a generic timeline of an infection. In the pre PCR days when infection was proved by culture it was essentially true that people in the incubation phase are test negative, but that is not the case with current testing methods. So the deCode sample that are test positive are a mixture non-infectious, incubation phase people and "asymptomatic" but infectious cases