Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

Its not a question of whether test is effective at detecting IgG/IgM. Its a question of how correlated is IgM/IgG detection to the disease itself. Ultimately the aim is to detect the disease.

IgM gets produced first - and then IgG. So, by the time IgG gets produced, the disease is obvious (with lot of other clinical signs).

So, how effective is the test at detecting the disease? It sounds like you're saying it's the IgM sensitivity early on and then the IcG sensitivity later on?

 

[jhm]

At the risk of shaming myself publicly, this looks like a straightforward question since the growth rate has been predictably ~ 0.2.
So I would say days = 5*Ln(10) = 11.5

But perhaps less if NYC runs out of ICU beds

I'd just note that the tricky part here is accounting for curvature. Hopefully the death growth rate will slow a little bit each day.

 

[Norbert]

So, how effective is the test at detecting the disease? It sounds like you're saying it's the IgM sensitivity early on and then the IcG sensitivity later on?

Or it would increase from 0.8 to 0.96 ? (if the sensitivities are independent)

 

[SageBrush]

It sounds like you're saying it's the IgM sensitivity early on and then the IcG sensitivity later on?

Yes, although peak IgM is ~ 10 - 14 days post exposure and detection rate is dependent on antibody concentration up to a threshold.
Be very skeptical of these single 'sensitivity' numbers for early infection.

Early infection antibody detection is in general not a +/- test but is based on serial testing demonstrating a 4x rise in titer.

This fascination with antibody testing during the epidemic is misplaced.

 

[HVM]

If there are any mistakes of false information on potholer54's video you are welcome to point it out.
Also totally off topic:

I don't know what MXLRplus babbling about, but here's short history from Jewish community of Helsinki:

"The Second World War and Finnish Jewry
During the Winter War (Finnish-Russian War of 1939–1940), Finnish Jews fought alongside their non-Jewish fellow countrymen. During the Finnish-Russian War of 1941–44, in which Finnish Jews also took part, Finland and Nazi-Germany were co-belligerents. Despite strong German pressure, the Finnish Government refused to take action against Finnish nationals of Jewish origin who thus continued to enjoy full civil rights throughout the war. There are many interesting anecdotes from this period, concerning, among others, the presence of a Jewish prayer tent on the Russian front virtually under the Nazi's noses and the food help given to Russian-Jewish POWs by the Jewish communities of Finland."

Story about Russian POWs is sadly different (Jewish or not.)

 

[Cosmacelf]

Zinc by itself has a hard time getting through the cell wall. It needs a doorway opened. Antiamalarial meds have been shown to open that doorway which is a good thing. That said, there is a second "zinc ionophore" that also opens the cell to zinc, and is still readily available OTC, even through Amazon. That compound is called Quercetin. Here's a paper that describes this function:

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/jf5014633

And another that describes Quercetin's effect on conventional viruses:

Quercetin as an Antiviral Agent Inhibits Influenza A Virus (IAV) Entry

Others might know if there are any overdose or side effect issues, as there are with the anti-malarials. Seems like it might be an easy, cheap and available piece of insurance when combined with zinc supplements.
Thoughts?
Robin

Wow. And here are some articles talking about it with relation to COVID-19. Apparently there are ongoing quercetin trials. And bonus, it lowers cholesterol.

Quercetin - To Take or Not to Take?

Montreal researchers propose a treatment for COVID-19 | The McGill Tribune

Combating COVID-19 with Zinc and Quercetin

Quercetin

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That's a really interesting distribution of cases, with age 21-30 having the highest rate.

I've noticed the 0-19 group is super low in the Washington State data too (they've recently redone their webpage to provide epidemiological curves). Though in the Washington data, it did not have a peak at 21-30. Probably has something to do with the way the testing is being done, yes.

I do wonder if the attack rate on children in particular is just really low (meaning they are not susceptible), or whether they are simply asymptomatic (or have mild symptoms) and just not tested. I guess antibody testing will at some point provide the answer.

I guess I'm just saying I'm not sure the children are the deadly asymptomatic vectors we have been told they are. Maybe they just have really low rates of infection. Is there any biological reason this could be? Different expression of receptors at young ages or something?

I suppose it's most reasonable to assume that they are infected and their immune systems just immediately annihilate the virus. But presumably that would make them generally less contagious as well?

 

[Norbert]

I'd just note that the tricky part here is accounting for curvature. Hopefully the death growth rate will slow a little bit each day.

At some point yes, however it might go up again in so far as there are new hot spots.

 

[jhm]

from reddit user MetricT

Nice charts. One thing that is striking here is just how extensive the geographical coverage is. Just about every county has 1 or more cases. There is no place you can go without risk of exposure.

 

[bpsmits]

fivethirtyeight.com has a nice summary of why covid-19 models are all over the map, or in other words "why it's so freaking hard to make a good covid-19 model." Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model
]

Very interesting read. It makes you realize that many over simplifications are made.

 

[Unpilot]

Love Potholer54! Thanks for the link.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I've noticed the 0-19 group is super low in the Washington State data too (they've recently redone their webpage to provide epidemiological curves). Though in the Washington data, it did not have a peak at 21-30. Probably has something to do with the way the testing is being done, yes.

I do wonder if the attack rate on children in particular is just really low (meaning they are not susceptible), or whether they are simply asymptomatic (or have mild symptoms) and just not tested. I guess antibody testing will at some point provide the answer.

I guess I'm just saying I'm not sure the children are the deadly asymptomatic vectors we have been told they are. Maybe they just have really low rates of infection. Is there any biological reason this could be? Different expression of receptors at young ages or something?

I suppose it's most reasonable to assume that they are infected and their immune systems just immediately annihilate the virus. But presumably that would make them generally less contagious as well?

Here is the data per 100k for South Korea which shows a higher percentage than other data sets. Perhaps they don't bother testing minors since if the parents are quarantined then the children will be be quarantined with them anyway?

Coronavirus disease 19(COVID-19)
The giant spike for 20-29 is most likely from the mega church super spreader.

 

[FoverM]

I live near Avondale Estates and Decatur. What little I'm able to observe, people are mostly staying at home in my area.

I whipped up some GA graphs from the COVID Tracker website. First is the daily growth %:

The Excel trend line is downwards but the values are all over the place.

Next up are the hospitalizations (starting on03/25):

They're rolling over even on this linear scale. Who knows if the underlying data is correct.

Finally, deaths in log scale:

Looks like deaths are bending horizontal.

If the daily growth remains under 10% then we'll be at the halfway point in this event.

 

[bkp_duke]

Its not a question of whether test is effective at detecting IgG/IgM. Its a question of how correlated is IgM/IgG detection to the disease itself. Ultimately the aim is to detect the disease.

IgM gets produced first - and then IgG. So, by the time IgG gets produced, the disease is obvious (with lot of other clinical signs).

Actually, IgM is produced in the later half of the disease, and IgG is produced in the resolution phase (or chronic phase if someone cannot clear the infection).

IgM and IgG should NOT be used as a test to assess for infection, as they are poorly designed for that purpose. They should be used as a test to assess for IMMUNITY.

 

[bkp_duke]

Just imagine in Nazi Germany had invaded the US. Trumps father would have been at the head of the line to volunteer for extermination squads. And judging by li'l trumps love of fascism, racism and concentration camps, I have little doubt he would have been rolling out the red carpet for the invaders.

Seriously, this is just being a dick.

 

[Unpilot]

Godwin's Law strikes again. Sort of. Certainly starting to skirt the bounds of that singularity.

We did make it to 388 pages though...so there is that...I guess

 

[Daniel in SD]

We did make it to 388 pages though...so there is that...I guess

First Hitler comparison was on page 188 (still impressive!).

So, what you're saying is that comparing the closing of small islands to the closing of 7,593 miles of US borders is like comparing apples to Orange Hitler.

 

[deonb]

I've noticed the 0-19 group is super low in the Washington State data too (they've recently redone their webpage to provide epidemiological curves). Though in the Washington data, it did not have a peak at 21-30. Probably has something to do with the way the testing is being done, yes.

WA state only test people who are sick enough to be hospitalized. There's no contact trace testing here.

We know 0-19 very rarely get that sick with COVID-19, so it follows that they are rarely tested.

 

[SageBrush]

Very interesting read. It makes you realize that many over simplifications are made.

Sort of, but I think it is more a case of ranges on top of ranges on top of ranges ... in an exponential function

 

[Papafox]

Hawaii has just decided to impose 14 day quarantines on inter-island travel. Thus, if you fly from Maui to Molokai you need to self-quarantine for 14 days. This could be a unique opportunity to see some isolated populations with adequate healthcare and tropical temperatures. Let's see if the health department is good enough at tracking down active cases so that we might achieve a COVID19-free island or two.