Coronavirus

[FoverM]

Georgia may be a bellwether state for the whole US. We don't get much national media attention, but the situation is not good.

Note that the population of GA is 10.7 million, NY is 20.5 million, and California 40 million.

As of yesterday, Georgia has 102 covid19 deaths, 9.5 DPM. This is comparable to the national figure of 3165 deaths, 9.6 DPM.

California gets much more attention than Georgia, but it is doing much better fighting this virus. Yesterday, California was at 145 deaths, 3.6 DPM.

What's different? California has had aggressive Stay-at-home policy; Georgia has closed public schools, but there is no Stay-at-home. California does a lot of testing. Georgia is rationing testing to the critically ill.

Georgia had 3032 confirmed cases, which compared to 102 deaths is a naïve CFR of 3.4%.
California had 7248 confirmed cases, which compared to 145 deaths is a naïve CFR of 2.0%.

The media is paying much more attention to larger states with higher confirmed case counts than they are to states that have elevated death rates (Deaths Per Million). One problem with the DPM going over 10 in a state like Georgia is that our health care system is reaching capacity. At some point in the next 10 to 20 days as DPM climbs to 100 or more, we will have system overload. Things can get just as ugly as they have been in NYC or Italy.

I have no expectation that there will be a ventilator available when I need one. As I'm prone to lung infections anytime I get a simple cold, my best hope is never to catch this crap. And yet our shithole governor won't shut down the state.

Stay at home. Don't worry about the economy or Tesla. I have no doubt that in time the economy will recover briskly and Tesla will surge ahead of all other automakers. I just wish more of us could live to see it.

I don't know where you live in ATL but up north where I live everything is basically shut down. The only places to shop are grocery stores and home depot/lowes. Restaurants are drive-through. Medical businesses (dentists, etc.) are limited to emergency cases.

Note that limiting testing to "critically ill" people will increase the CFR.

 

[mikevbf]

Here is a link to an interview of a New York doctor who has treated 699 COVID-19 patients with hydroxychloroquine/Azithromycin plus zinc and has had 100% success. Rudy Giuliani did the interview. The doctor says the reason for his high success is that he starts the treatments quickly enough to keep the patient from going into the very dangerous battle within the lungs known as ARDS. He says once a patient gets ARDS it's about a 50/50 chance of survival. Personally, I think 100% success ratio is a game changer and the secret is to start the treatment soon enough. The ventilators are essential for treating ARDS and the drugs can keep a patient from reaching that point. This is huge.

@Papafox sorry if I am repeating what others have already said regarding your post; it is almost impossible to follow a single topic on such a large thread over multiple days. What is different about Zalenko's cocktail compared to others being done is the use of zinc. It seems his theory for why to use Hydroxychloroquine is that it creates a channel or passage for the Zinc to disrupt the Covid-19 virus. So the studies that use Hydroxychloroquine in the absence of zinc are really completely different. My concern with so much publicity around Hydroxychloroquine without zinc is 1) there is a lot of noise potentially using up the drug in a less effective way and 2) the hoarding behavior creating a shortage of Hydroxychloroquine for both covid-19 patients as well as the many patients who use the drug for treatment of non covid diseases.

 

[Norbert]

The media is paying much more attention to larger states with higher confirmed case counts than they are to states that have elevated death rates (Deaths Per Million).

Part of it is the convenience of using absolute numbers, which probably turns into a habit because more people are interested in the states that have more people.

Also worldmeters, for example, has a sortable DPM column for countries, but not for states. (A CFR column would also be nice, as you indicate.)

I could imagine that we will get some federal directive about stay-a-home soon. If only because hospital beds and ventilators will soon become a problem in many places.

 

[Dr. J]

I don't know where you live in ATL but up north where I live everything is basically shut down.

Is that because of a local shut down order? That's what we have in Texas: county by county, city by city shelter orders.

 

[Cosmacelf]

@Papafox sorry if I am repeating what others have already said regarding your post; it is almost impossible to follow a single topic on such a large thread over multiple days. What is different about Zalenko's cocktail compared to others being done is the use of zinc. It seems his theory for why to use Hydroxychloroquine is that it creates a channel or passage for the Zinc to disrupt the Covid-19 virus. So the studies that use Hydroxychloroquine in the absence of zinc are really completely different. My concern with so much publicity around Hydroxychloroquine without zinc is 1) there is a lot of noise potentially using up the drug in a less effective way and 2) the hoarding behavior creating a shortage of Hydroxychloroquine for both covid-19 patients as well as the many patients who use the drug for treatment of non covid diseases.

Yes indeed, and different people will have varying amounts of zinc in their system based on their diet. Supplementing with zinc removes that variable. Here's a chart (from Office of Dietary Supplements - Zinc) that shows typical dietary sources of zinc. What it looks like is that if you eat meat or dairy, you'll have a reasonable amount of zinc in your body.

 

[SageBrush]

I was thinking about data analysis of growth rates.
In the ideal case, the growth rate for positive tests in the population, positive tests in the hospital, and deaths are the same.

We started out with daily positive tests, but at some point lack of testing will affect the growth curves. For now we can use hospitalizations that are test positive, but in April-May lack of testing will affect the intergrity of that data also. The last step is to follow presumed Covid mortality. That will be unrelated to testing and will rely on baseline data. It will not be clean because mortality will spike due to lack of hospital resources but I cannot think of anything better.

Any ideas ?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Georgia may be a bellwether state for the whole US. We don't get much national media attention, but the situation is not good.

Note that the population of GA is 10.7 million, NY is 20.5 million, and California 40 million.

As of yesterday, Georgia has 102 covid19 deaths, 9.5 DPM. This is comparable to the national figure of 3165 deaths, 9.6 DPM.

California gets much more attention than Georgia, but it is doing much better fighting this virus. Yesterday, California was at 145 deaths, 3.6 DPM.

What's different? California has had aggressive Stay-at-home policy; Georgia has closed public schools, but there is no Stay-at-home. California does a lot of testing. Georgia is rationing testing to the critically ill.

Georgia had 3032 confirmed cases, which compared to 102 deaths is a naïve CFR of 3.4%.
California had 7248 confirmed cases, which compared to 145 deaths is a naïve CFR of 2.0%.

The media is paying much more attention to larger states with higher confirmed case counts than they are to states that have elevated death rates (Deaths Per Million). One problem with the DPM going over 10 in a state like Georgia is that our health care system is reaching capacity. At some point in the next 10 to 20 days as DPM climbs to 100 or more, we will have system overload. Things can get just as ugly as they have been in NYC or Italy.

I have no expectation that there will be a ventilator available when I need one. As I'm prone to lung infections anytime I get a simple cold, my best hope is never to catch this crap. And yet our shithole governor won't shut down the state.

Stay at home. Don't worry about the economy or Tesla. I have no doubt that in time the economy will recover briskly and Tesla will surge ahead of all other automakers. I just wish more of us could live to see it.

Not to take away from your points, but CA has only done as much testing (per capita) as the others. It's critical patients only from what I can find. We just have more people, so the number of tests seem more. But yeah, shelter-at-home seems to be biggest help. I've railed against it in the past, because of how porous the exemptions seem, but have come around these past few weeks in seeing that EVERY little bit helps. My apologies to this thread for my earlier naive views.

 

[SageBrush]

Another thing I was curious about is the correlation between IgG and IgM. If the test is 80% effective at detecting IgG and 80% effective at detecting IgM does that mean it's 96% effective or is it much closer to 80%?

Wikipedia is your friend. It is a matter of kinetics

 

[MXLRplus]

Not to take away from your points, but CA has only done as much testing (per capita) as the others. It's critical patients only from what I can find. We just have more people, so the number of tests seem more. But yeah, shelter-at-home seems to be biggest help. I've railed against it in the past, because of how porous the exemptions seem, but have come around these past few weeks in seeing that EVERY little bit helps. My apologies to this thread for my earlier naive views.

Most areas of California have an infrastructural immunity. Most people live in suburbs and have their own cars, as opposed to highrise/brownstone/project dwellers who must share transportation.

And Californians culturally have less contact with their neighbors than many other states.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Israel disagrees

View attachment 527869

Something is way off with the temp axes

70F is ~21C

Googling temp data seems the Fahrenheit axis is correct, average high should be mid-high 60s for February

 

[SageBrush]

Something is way off with the temp axes

70F is ~21C

Googling temp data seems the Fahrenheit axis is correct, average high should be mid-high 60s for February

Ahh ... good catch.
I am inclined to think the C scale is correct but I am not sure.

 

[HG Wells]

Something to liven the mood that has descended upon us.

Song: I got it from Agnes.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Ahh ... good catch.
I am inclined to think the C scale is correct but I am not sure.

According to this

https://www.accuweather.com/en/il/tel-aviv/215854/february-weather/215854?year=2020
https://www.accuweather.com/en/il/tel-aviv/215854/february-weather/215854?year=2020
daily highs in Feb rarely went into the 70s [F].
The Celsius scale would indicate that the average for Feb was at ~76F

 

[jhm]

Let's play Armchair Epidemiologist.

On what day will the US cross the 10 deaths per million inhabitants? (To be precise, 3310 deaths as published here https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/)

Post your guesses.

My guess is March 31.

It looks like today is the day. Worldometer is now posting 3400 US deaths. Thanks to all who put out their estimate. I think it is a good exercise to see how well aligned our perceptions are with the data.

I nearly bumped up my projection a couple of days ago. Fortunately the death count on Sunday was a bit low. But I was nearly persuaded it would be March 30 before that.

Now we have the question, When will the US hit 100 DPM, or 33,100 deaths?

My guess is April 14, but not high confidence, subjective error about +/- 4 days.

 

[FoverM]

Is that because of a local shut down order? That's what we have in Texas: county by county, city by city shelter orders.

I just checked and the official county restaurant shut down order was March 27. However, it was basically a formality because restaurants had already switched to take-out and reduced hours a week or more earlier. Other businesses shut down around that time as well. My wife's medical spa shut down over a week ago.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Google translate link for a french article:
Google Translate

"The Medicines Agency (ANSM) warned on Monday that the treatments tested against Covid-19 could cause serious adverse effects and should "in no case" be used for self-medication. Indeed, they are suspected of having caused the death of 3 people.
...
Indeed, "some cases of serious undesirable effects have been reported to us and are being analyzed", adds the agency.
...
More specifically, there are around thirty serious adverse effects , "including three deaths in patients with coronavirus treated with Plaquénil but also with other drugs such as Kaletra", Dominique Martin, director, told AFP. general of the ANSM.
...
These side effects have been reported mainly in hospitals. These are mainly heart conditions, which can lead to sometimes fatal hospitalization.
...
Analyzes are also still underway to verify "whether the reported events are attributable or not to the treatment received by patients," added the director of the agency, hoping for initial conclusions "by the end of the week".
..."

It's not quite clear to me (maybe lost in translation) if the deaths were during clinical trials or people home-medicating with aquarium cleaner.

 

[eisa01]

‘In addition Fauci apparently believes Summer will help. This is great, great news!
My concerns are:

1) How well will the country be prepared for Fall when it returns.
2) Why is it so bad in South Fl. and New Orleans considering it has been very warm for weeks?

The Coronavirus Will Return In The Fall, Fauci Predicts, But The U.S. Will Be Better Prepared

On 2) there may be some issues with the paper not correcting for where cases _occured_, so it would be overestimating the impact of temperature

E.g., at the time of lock-down in Norway, half the cases were imported from Austria. Other countries also have had sizeable impact from Afterski bars in Iscghl, Austria

 

[bkp_duke]

It looks like today is the day. Worldometer is now posting 3400 US deaths. Thanks to all who put out their estimate. I think it is a good exercise to see how well aligned our perceptions are with the data.

I nearly bumped up my projection a couple of days ago. Fortunately the death count on Sunday was a bit low. But I was nearly persuaded it would be March 30 before that.

Now we have the question, When will the US hit 100 DPM, or 33,100 deaths?

My guess is April 14, but not high confidence, subjective error about +/- 4 days.

My estimate, April 12.

I'll be hitting up a few from this thread when we pass the seasonal influenza number, just to remind them this isn't "a bad flu".

 

[EinSV]

fivethirtyeight.com has a nice summary of why covid-19 models are all over the map, or in other words "why it's so freaking hard to make a good covid-19 model." Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

Also relevant survey data from March 16-17 (shamelessly pilfered from @KarenRei's twitter feed):

 

[Daniel in SD]

It looks like today is the day. Worldometer is now posting 3400 US deaths. Thanks to all who put out their estimate. I think it is a good exercise to see how well aligned our perceptions are with the data.

I nearly bumped up my projection a couple of days ago. Fortunately the death count on Sunday was a bit low. But I was nearly persuaded it would be March 30 before that.

Now we have the question, When will the US hit 100 DPM, or 33,100 deaths?

My guess is April 14, but not high confidence, subjective error about +/- 4 days.

I predicted March 30th. I like to predict the worst so that things will go better than I expect.
I predict April 12th to reach 100 DPM.