Coronavirus

[EVNow]

How bad are the PCR tests we're using in the US? That seems really bad and there would be no way to stop the spread by testing.
This LabCorp PCR test looks like it has 100% sensitivity (small sample size): https://www.fda.gov/media/136151/download

This is the confusion.

The PCR tests are actually very good. The problem is sample collection. Nasal swabs don't yield enough virus in some people (or at certain times during the infection) to come out positive in the test.

 

[Daniel in SD]

538.com has a nice summary of why covid-19 models are all over the map, or in other words "why it's so freaking hard to make a good covid-19 model." Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

Also relevant (shamelessly pilfered from @KarenRei's twitter feed):

I don't see the feedback loop between deaths and humans behavior and politics in his diagram. That seems like one of the hardest things to model.

 

[Doggydogworld]

California does a lot of testing.

But 2/3rds of their tests are pending. Apparently until the crisis is over....

It looks like today is the day. Worldometer is now posting 3400 US deaths.

Worldometer US count for March 30 was 3141.

Now we have the question, When will the US hit 100 DPM, or 33,100 deaths?
My guess is April 14, but not high confidence, subjective error about +/- 4 days.

I'll guess April 15.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The dearth of leadership from the top appears to be magnified down the chain of command:

I'm sure, as this was super obviously going to be a huge problem in mid-January, that there were really smart competent people in the chain of command who were freaking out in January and wanted to do something. Unfortunately it requires leadership at the top in an organization like that.

Note that limiting testing to "critically ill" people will increase the CFR.

For sure. That's why the US rates look high even after accounting for a 6-7 day lag. Dramatically undercounting the cases. To some extent, undercounting the deaths too, I would guess (but less severe).

 

[jhm]

I don't know where you live in ATL but up north where I live everything is basically shut down. The only places to shop are grocery stores and home depot/lowes. Restaurants are drive-through. Medical businesses (dentists, etc.) are limited to emergency cases.

Note that limiting testing to "critically ill" people will increase the CFR.

I live near Avondale Estates and Decatur. What little I'm able to observe, people are mostly staying at home in my area.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I predicted March 30th. I like to predict the worst so that things will go better than I expect.
I predict April 12th to reach 100 DPM.

I predict April 13th. We were apparently at about 330k cumulative infections two weeks ago, so being at ~3 million cumulative infections today doesn't seem like too much of stretch.

 

[SageBrush]

538.com has a nice summary of why covid-19 models are all over the map, or in other words "why it's so freaking hard to make a good covid-19 model." Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

Absolutely outstanding

 

[HVM]

 

[N5329K]

Yes indeed, and different people will have varying amounts of zinc in their system based on their diet. Supplementing with zinc removes that variable. Here's a chart (from Office of Dietary Supplements - Zinc) that shows typical dietary sources of zinc. What it looks like is that if you eat meat or dairy, you'll have a reasonable amount of zinc in your body.

View attachment 527887

Zinc by itself has a hard time getting through the cell wall. It needs a doorway opened. Antiamalarial meds have been shown to open that doorway which is a good thing. That said, there is a second "zinc ionophore" that also opens the cell to zinc, and is still readily available OTC, even through Amazon. That compound is called Quercetin. Here's a paper that describes this function:

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/jf5014633

And another that describes Quercetin's effect on conventional viruses:

Quercetin as an Antiviral Agent Inhibits Influenza A Virus (IAV) Entry

Others might know if there are any overdose or side effect issues, as there are with the anti-malarials. Seems like it might be an easy, cheap and available piece of insurance when combined with zinc supplements.
Thoughts?
Robin

 

[EVNow]

Another thing I was curious about is the correlation between IgG and IgM. If the test is 80% effective at detecting IgG and 80% effective at detecting IgM does that mean it's 96% effective or is it much closer to 80%?

Its not a question of whether test is effective at detecting IgG/IgM. Its a question of how correlated is IgM/IgG detection to the disease itself. Ultimately the aim is to detect the disease.

IgM gets produced first - and then IgG. So, by the time IgG gets produced, the disease is obvious (with lot of other clinical signs).

 

[Lessmog]

Zinc by itself has a hard time getting through the cell wall. It needs a doorway opened. Antiamalarial meds have been shown to open that doorway which is a good thing. That said, there is a second "zinc ionophore" that also opens the cell to zinc, and is still readily available OTC, even through Amazon. That compound is called Quercetin. Here's a paper that describes this function:

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/jf5014633

And another that describes Quercetin's effect on conventional viruses:

Quercetin as an Antiviral Agent Inhibits Influenza A Virus (IAV) Entry

Others might know if there are any overdose or side effect issues, as there are with the anti-malarials. Seems like it might be an easy, cheap and available piece of insurance when combined with zinc supplements.
Thoughts?
Robin

Only one question off the cuff:
Is Quercetin available from pet shops?

Edit: No wait, is it derived from oaks perhaps? How many acorns needed?

 

[SageBrush]

At the risk of shaming myself publicly, this looks like a straightforward question since the growth rate has been predictably ~ 0.2.
So I would say days = 5*Ln(10) = 11.5

But perhaps less if NYC runs out of ICU beds

I predicted March 30th. I like to predict the worst so that things will go better than I expect.
I predict April 12th to reach 100 DPM.

 

[jhm]

I've come to similar conclusions to your post.

'Naive CFR' is a good description for a couple of reasons but in this context it emphasizes the lack of correction for when the epidemic started in each state.

If you make the simplifying assumption that CA and GA have pretty much the same infection fatality rate, then the ratio of nCFR 3.4%/2.0% = 1.7 means that infection rates have to get 70% higher in GA to get the same level of awareness as in CA. So this means GA is potentially 2 to 3 days delayed confirming cases compared to CA. So a high nCFR can simply mean that confirmed cases are more of lagging indicator of the outbreak than it is in other places.

 

[MXLRplus]

...

 

[N5329K]

Only one question off the cuff:
Is Quercetin available from pet shops?

Edit: No wait, is it derived from oaks perhaps? How many acorns needed?

I squirreled some away.
Robin

 

[SageBrush]

Since US politics interest you, the US had something in common with Finland.
Both leaders ignored the mass killings at the German incinerators in WWII.
But the US did not actually round up the Jews like Finland did for extermination.

That wasn't Trump who that. It was people, some still alive and unpunished, in Finland.

Just imagine in Nazi Germany had invaded the US. Trumps father would have been at the head of the line to volunteer for extermination squads. And judging by li'l trumps love of fascism, racism and concentration camps, I have little doubt he would have been rolling out the red carpet for the invaders.

 

[dhanson865]

from reddit user MetricT

 

[jhm]

Part of it is the convenience of using absolute numbers, which probably turns into a habit because more people are interested in the states that have more people.

Also worldmeters, for example, has a sortable DPM column for countries, but not for states. (A CFR column would also be nice, as you indicate.)

I could imagine that we will get some federal directive about stay-a-home soon. If only because hospital beds and ventilators will soon become a problem in many places.

New York is the epicenter of nation news media production and news media markets.

If the Administration is serious about trying to have fewer than 100k deaths, they would be launching a national stay-at-home policy along with mask wearing guidance for all who must leave their homes to do essential business. Quarantining a few states or cities is waste of effort; the whole country need to be locked down.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Just imagine in Nazi Germany had invaded the US. Trumps father would have been at the head of the line to volunteer for extermination squads. And judging by li'l trumps love of fascism, racism and concentration camps, I have little doubt he would have been rolling out the red carpet for the invaders.

Godwin's Law strikes again. Sort of. Certainly starting to skirt the bounds of that singularity.

 

[EinSV]

from reddit user MetricT

That's a really interesting distribution of cases, with age 21-30 having the highest rate.

Any idea why that might be? Maybe universities are doing widespread testing?