I would believe it's the high intensity UV from the sun, not the temperature. If you believe the coronavirus jumped from bats, then those coronavirus can handle high temps in the range of 150F (bats' body temp while flying).
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
I would believe it's the high intensity UV from the sun, not the temperature. If you believe the coronavirus jumped from bats, then those coronavirus can handle high temps in the range of 150F (bats' body temp while flying).
Correct, UV plus high humidity usually dampens viral infectious rate. So we will see.
Our humidity is still low compared to summer, but UV is high up there. They say it's the UV hours that's important, which Winter has much less of. Of course they also say it doesn't matter when people are indoors.
FL has high amount of people indoors due to the high heat and terrible public transportation. I think infectious rate would go down dramatically for places like NYC where people are walking around a lot out doors.
Sorry if this was already report here, but if you thought Italy couldn't be worse think again.
The official numbers have been ~10% of those infected die, which is terrible. But people are dying all over in places like nursing homes that are not getting counted towards COVID-19 because they were never officially tested before they died and no point in wasting a test kit on someone that is already dead.
It could be as high as 20-30% (for those that get infected) die in Italy.
Italy's Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported
The official numbers have been ~10% of those infected die, which is terrible. But people are dying all over in places like nursing homes that are not getting counted towards COVID-19 because they were never officially tested before they died and no point in wasting a test kit on someone that is already dead.
It could be as high as 20-30% (for those that get infected) die in Italy.
Italy's Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Here's a thread from a doctor at NYU Langone, describing experience and treatments (some mention of the hydroxychloroquine 3 drug cocktail in this thread, along with other treatment protocols).
They are apparently encouraging "proning" of patients to avoid intubation (UpToDate)
Thread by @leorahorwitzmd: In my 7 days on one of our (now 12!) non ICU #COVID19 units, I admitted 58 patients for COVID rule out, of whom 50 tested positive. Two died…
Maybe some of the doctors here could translate the less obvious stuff, if it is of interest...
They are apparently encouraging "proning" of patients to avoid intubation (UpToDate)
Thread by @leorahorwitzmd: In my 7 days on one of our (now 12!) non ICU #COVID19 units, I admitted 58 patients for COVID rule out, of whom 50 tested positive. Two died…
Maybe some of the doctors here could translate the less obvious stuff, if it is of interest...
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DanCar
Active Member
I see. "done right" means to up the projections daily to be socially palatable and not too scary. Heaven forbid we actually told the truth early on, that would just scare to many people and earn a ban from ggr for histrionics. Coronavirus
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
No idea, really, but most likely they are only counting 1/6th of the cases, or even less, so all of the typical 4% critical patients die.
Your right, my bad. They have controlled it with aggressive testing and taking measures when someone tests positive. Testing is so poor in the US that aggressive testing is physically impossible.
So the new story line from the WH is now that both China and Italy are fudging the death numbers?!?
... Dear Leader did recommend people share ventilators...
COVID-19 Louisiana: 2 People Per Ventilator | CleanTechnica
COVID-19 Louisiana: 2 People Per Ventilator | CleanTechnica
Norbert
TSLA will win
Well, of those that were tested and had a positive result. Although that misses some number of deaths, it also misses many who are infected since often only serious cases get tested.
EDIT: The article talks about thousands of additional deaths, though. That's worth looking into.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
No. And thank God No!
This blogger quote a couple of small Chinese studies showing very low survivor ratios for COVID-19 patients on ventilators (14% and 3%). He also points to a larger UK study that showed 33%. A small Seattle study included 18 patients on ventilators:
9 died
6 were extubated
3 were still on the ventilator when the study ended.
I'll go with 33% survival. Maybe it improves a little with experience, but still much lower than I expected.
The 1.1 million includes both public and private labs.
200k * 0.02 = 4k
That said, our 14 day lagged CFR right now is not 2%, but 55% (5099/9197)....
I realize there's lots of skepticism out there about HCQ. On the other hand, both my brothers are physicians and they are intrigued by studies so far. Physicians are divided on this matter, which doesn't mean that it works or doesn't work, it means there's some skepticism out there. Nonetheless, every study I've seen so far, from the second French study, to Dr. Zelenko's brief summary of his experience, to the Chinese study of HCQ by itself (with a control group yet) suggests the benefits of HCQ, when given before the disease becomes severe, are substantial.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Gov Cuomo (NY) reported 20/80 recovery:death in those that go on a vent
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Oh yes … wrong by a mere factor of 10.
So, really nothing much to go by … even the hospitalization data is spotty at best (31k cumulative).
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Their projection is based on current fatalities - since testing is so poor. So, as such the projections will keep changing. I think the main criticism is that they think Wuhan level social distancing can be applied to all states, which is obviously not right.
So the new story line from the WH is now that both China and Italy are fudging the death numbers?!?
I don't know what the dope house said.
Italy just don't have the resources to confirm they all died from COVID-19.
There is no incentive to hide or fudge anything.
Italy is simply further behind in counting who died from COVID-19 than identifying and saving those who are still alive.
We know here in the US that it is way under counting folks that are infected due to lack of test kits.
I'm sure deaths will get under counted her too. How grossly who knows right now.
I don't think China would be doing as well as they are if they didn't manage to get it under control early, regardless of official numbers.
Things are pretty tight over there but they are going to work and easing up cautiously. I work with a group directly in Shanghai. We meet with them on Teleconference every two weeks.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes - this is the big thing. In US people spend a lot of time indoors - just like in Singapore. So, not sure how much of an effect humidity & heat will have to R0 - compared to say India.
This is becoming acceptable but a friend is working on four patients on one ventilator at National Jewish.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Their latest projection from March 31 for the number of deaths on April 1, just 1 day later, is 899, whereas the actual number today is 1049...
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