Coronavirus

[carterm2]

There are folks here that are working from home (Amazon, Google etc), and our students are having online courses (limited success).

Some hillside walking trails have been restricted to one direction only in order to keep people apart. Trader Joes has a limit of 25 shoppers in the store at a time (lines outside). Separate times for Seniors. Costco delivers (very restricted as the service is over subscribed) (Walmart failed on this in a big way).

Perhaps it is possible to restart factory work with a similar plan. Employees could be tested daily (Abbot Labs 15 minute test).
Perhaps instead of 8 hour shifts, there would be weeklong shifts, separate apartments nearby. (Testing would need huge improvement).
In the long view, it seems it is time to start coming up with ways to get things restarted.

To feel productive I have been donating computing power to Folding At Home. There are local projects for 3D printing face shields and a neighbor has started a mask sewing cooperative.

Ideas welcome.

 

[SageBrush]

PPE?!?!

Yes.

I don't mean physician level PPE or CDC level PPE in Ebola country
I mean a face mask and frequent hand washing/hand_sanitizer

 

[SageBrush]

I sent this letter to our state governor today

The measures taken so far in the Covid-19 epidemic are progressive and I applaud you. I hope you will urgently consider mandating surgical mask use for all customer facing retail workers. The most glaring need is in stores where cashiers come face to face with hundreds of people a day, including our community's most vulnerable citizerns. It is the weakest link in the 'stay at home' strategy.

 

[EinSV]

There are folks here that are working from home (Amazon, Google etc), and our students are having online courses (limited success).

Some hillside walking trails have been restricted to one direction only in order to keep people apart. Trader Joes has a limit of 25 shoppers in the store at a time (lines outside). Separate times for Seniors. Costco delivers (very restricted as the service is over subscribed) (Walmart failed on this in a big way).

Perhaps it is possible to restart factory work with a similar plan. Employees could be tested daily (Abbot Labs 15 minute test).
Perhaps instead of 8 hour shifts, there would be weeklong shifts, separate apartments nearby. (Testing would need huge improvement).
In the long view, it seems it is time to start coming up with ways to get things restarted.

To feel productive I have been donating computing power to Folding At Home. There are local projects for 3D printing face shields and a neighbor has started a mask sewing cooperative.

Ideas welcome.

With appropriate protective gear, testing and sanitary practices, I don't see why Tesla Fremont couldn't re-open sooner. As you may be hinting at with the reference to nearby apartments, the biggest challenge may be transit since many employees take BART. Having said that, I'd be shocked if they re-open in the next month due to politics. Unfortunately, politics led to delayed action at the beginning and will probably lead to delayed re-opening.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Frantic searcher here. My wife is a retail pharmacist, and she showed symptoms of a fever and cough yesterday and I've had to nurse her, while working from home (a condo), with kids in tow. And no tests available to confirm/deny whether or not we're all infected. I couldn't drop the kids off with grandma/grandpa, because of the possibility of being asymptomatic carriers.

Not all of us (if you factor how many people work in healthcare, public safety, and the "essential businesses", AND the people who live with them, this number should be a significant fraction of the general population) can afford to take universal precautions.

Just pointing out that these people (the high risk groups) need to rely on our own immune systems or that magic bullet, because it's only a matter of _when_ we catch it, not _if_.

One OTC thing you can take is zinc lozenges (like Cold eeze) and quercetin. Don’t know if it’ll help but it might and unlikely to hurt.

 

[ohmman]

By end of next week, incremental domestic violence deaths alone will be creeping up on any incremental mortality from a tiered return to normal.

Do you have this data? This is a legitimate concern of mine (domestic violence increasing) but I cannot find real time data on cases. You state this as if you have seen the evidence, so a link would be appreciated.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We're having a huge, huge impact on infections. The issue is it takes a few weeks to show. The other issue is that we waited far too long. Each additional day we waited probably added about 20% more infections.

We are testing almost no one and have 265,506 identified cases.

If I as a young(relatively) healthy male walked up to a hospital and said I have coronavirus and exhibited moderate symptoms, I would be told to go home and isolate. I would not be included in the count of cases.

Anywhere from 25-95% of infections are asymptomatic, none of those people have been counted. All the people those asymptomatic infected in their peer group who are considerably more likely to be asymptomatic....none of them have been counted.

We are easily far past 3% infection already. When such a high percentage are asymptomatic and incubation is so long, a widespread 3%(or even 1%) infection rate might as well mean everyone. Eventually that modest group is going to spread the virus, that's inevitable.

We're flattening the hump if infections to help hospitals cope, but it's not a massive impact.

 

[mikevbf]

Do you have a link to this update please? The Tesla Owners Club of NYS is looking for the names of NY hospitals that need ventilators to pass on to Tesla. Tesla is making them in Buffalo right now to donate.

Linking to the summery publicly stopped working a while ago. So, my friend sends me these summaries from his workplace at NewYork-Presbyterian Hudson Valley Hospital. I just copy and paste them from the email summaries he sends me late each night which is why when I post them here in the mornings, they are from the day before.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Do you have this data? This is a legitimate concern of mine (domestic violence increasing) but I cannot find real time data on cases. You state this as if you have seen the evidence, so a link would be appreciated.

I live in North Philadelphia and my girlfriend is a Pre-K teacher in the poorest part of West Philadelphia. It's not a huge percentage of the population, but 1% of impoverished households in Philadelphia are an absolute powderkeg when locked down and isolated. Especially under the stress of just being laid off.

Rural impoverished white America is probably gonna be even worse once they lockdown tighter and longer.

 

[ohmman]

I live in North Philadelphia and my girlfriend is a Pre-K teacher in the poorest part of West Philadelphia. It's not a huge percentage of the population, but 1% of impoverished households in Philadelphia are an absolute powderkeg when locked down and isolated. Especially under the stress of just being laid off.

Rural impoverished white America is probably gonna be even worse once they lockdown tighter and longer.

Right, but you stated something pretty specific, including a date. Was that just a hunch, or based on some published reporting?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

We are testing almost no one and have 265,506 identified cases.

I would estimate we currently have about 2-3 million active infections in the US. That's why it is very important for everyone to stay at home.

We are easily far past 3% infection already.

That would be 10 million people. Not yet. We will get there for sure.

As I said, I do find the IHME model to be a bit optimistic given where we are today, and given that we have not yet gone into full lockdown nationwide, and given that we have not yet implemented Wuhan style lockdown.

I suspect we'll get to closer to 6% average, nationwide, when all is said and done. (With at least 200k deaths - probably 250k.) Still not enough for herd immunity (need something like 60% at least I think). Obviously if infections are not uniformly distributed the numbers can be slightly different due to locally dense infections. But just ballpark.

Anywhere from 25-95% of infections are asymptomatic,

Latest CDC estimates from experts are about 25% asymptomatic (and I think that is throughout the course of the infection). It's referenced earlier in this thread - within the last couple days. There are a lot of people who are asymptomatic at first who then become symptomatic (I think something like 75% of initially asymptomatic people). That's not the same as asymptomatic, though it poses challenges to containment. That's why we all have to stay at home.

 

[SageBrush]

Data through Apr 2 from ECDC, downloaded at ~ 9am MST
Germany has not updated yet

 

[abasile]

WA has now extended stay at home to May 04th.

It looks like the new essential business definition excludes the way Tesla is selling cars (with small exceptions).

https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/Guidance Bulletin - Proclamation 20-25, 03.31.2020.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

SALES Limited sales and leasing activities at licensed new and used car and truck dealerships are deemed essential only if those activities:
• close a pending transaction that began before Governor Inslee’s Proclamation 20-25 was issued; or
• replace a totaled vehicle, replace a damaged vehicle that is impractical to repair, extend a lease that expires, or provide transportation to essential workers, as identified in the “Essential Critical Infrastructure Workers” list, Appendix to Proclamation 20-25, if the essential worker has no other means of transportation.​

That order doesn't appear to limit Tesla sales if Tesla is able to provide "touchless" home deliveries. You can still order anything you want online and have it delivered to your home. I think Tesla will do whatever is necessary to sell their inventory in the state of Washington.

 

[Papafox]

Today the Mayor of Honolulu asked residents to wear cloth masks when they are out and about. This is a really positive development because the previous federal suggestion of only wearing a mask if you were sick started putting a bit of a stigma on mask wearing. Now the stigma is gone and wearing a mask is the right thing to do. I approve.

By the way, Honolulu encompasses the entire Island of Oahu. The city and county governments are the same.

To prevent spread of virus, mayor asks all Oahu residents to wear a cloth mask in public

 

[EVNow]

In a blow to pure contact tracing method - Singapore went into a month long lockdown since they have community spread cases now.

PM Lee on COVID-19 situation: At a glance

 

[Ocelot]

Not sure about violence, but there are so many children out there, where school is their safe zone. where they can get a hot lunch, or at very least not live in fear for a few hours. my heart bleeds for these kids during this time.

As for economic impacts, I fall deep into this will have a prolonged impact. Best case, I see TSLA returning to 900 levels is 2022. Before I get creamed, Tesla still has not yet produced an affordable vehicle for the masses.People want SUV's. If, and thats a big if, people who absolutely need to buy a vehicle in the next year or two, will be bargain hunting. gas is cheap. Model Y in Canada is 70 grand or more. To get through this they need to half that number, and scale up a 35 -40 grand SUV. probably impossible for now. who knows, maybe the Chinese designed Tesla was in the works, pre-announcement of it. In the next year and a half, demand will fall off a cliff. I bought an X about 2 months ago, and there is ZERO chance I would of gone through with the purchase if I was buying today.

still holding all my tsla though, as hopefully I am wrong, and believe they are a company who at least is trying to do good, in this crazy world.

 

[Daniel in SD]

It's crazy that I can't find the answer to this obvious question in the press release or on the website. As far as I can tell ELISA antibody tests DO NOT have 100% specificity (zero false positives) so there will be false positives.

Ok I finally found the answer. The company making the test is United Biomedical (UBI Group - COVID-19).
They do claim 100% specificity (zero false positives). They tested 900 blood samples taken before the pandemic and got zero positive results. So the results from San Miguel County should be very accurate (though obviously not representative of the country at large). And of course you still have the issue of self selection unless a large majority of the population agrees to be tested.
Why a Tiny Colorado County Can Offer COVID-19 Tests to Every Resident
COVID-19 (Coronavirus) | San Miguel County, CO - Official Website
They've gotten results from 986 tests, 8 positive, 23 inconclusive, 955 negative.

 

[EVNow]

I live in North Philadelphia and my girlfriend is a Pre-K teacher in the poorest part of West Philadelphia. It's not a huge percentage of the population, but 1% of impoverished households in Philadelphia are an absolute powderkeg when locked down and isolated. Especially under the stress of just being laid off.

Rural impoverished white America is probably gonna be even worse once they lockdown tighter and longer.

I think the biggest issue is not lockdown, but being laid off.

We actually don't have a lockdown - a few entertainment options are closed (bars, restaurants, sports etc) - but most of shopping is open. Everyone can go for a walk, a drive etc. Its not a real curfew kind of lockdown where if you go out you will be blocked by police and asked why are you out of the home (like it is in some countries).

If they were not laid off & lost insurance - they'd just go to home depot, pick up a few things to do home projects and be happy.

 

[SageBrush]

Trivia question for the antibody test enthralled:

Let's say I tested Covid-19 antigen positive 10 days ago and I feel better now but I still have a sore throat and I am still coughing
What is the likelihood of a positive antibody test ? Why ?

 

[bkp_duke]

You have to look at the context of the study being discontinued. France gave approval for the drug's use in Covid-19 treatment shortly after the study was discontinued. A country doesn't do that if the big study just flopped. If the study was indicating the drug was ineffective, you would want to continue the study to prove so and thus yield important information from the study.

That's flat out false and an invalid argument.

The US FDA approved HCQ on scant scientific evidence. They literally did it on purely political reasons. I've read the French studies, to be blunt, they are *sugar*. If we were not in the middle of a pandemic the journal editors would have NEVER accepted them and sent them back to the researchers for "lack of significant evidence."

I've done journal article reviews, I've had articles published. But I'm sure you will tell me that I don't know what I'm talking about, again.