At this stage, I think outbreaks in developing countries are inevitable. If not contained, wait for the tsunami of humanitarian crisis coming along with refugee out flux/ chaos breeding terrorism.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Just read another article on undercounting and protocol this from a NYTimes article (again I can only access on my AppleNews) but on the same subject of undercounted deaths, entitled “Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll”, By Sarah Kliff and Julie Bosman, April 5, 2020. Different research for the article than the WP article, same premise that people in those fields are saying deaths haven’t been counted as CV19. Different accounts from different professionals, many saying tests were not done before body released for burial/cremation. How many unaccounted for each city/state? we’ll never know.
“In New York City, emergency medical workers say that infection and death rates are probably far higher than reported. Given a record number of calls, many ambulance crews have encouraged anyone not critically ill to stay home. The result, medics say, is that many presumed coronavirus patients may never know for sure if they had the virus, so any who later die at home may never be categorized as having had it.”
“In Shelby County, Ala., Lina Evans, the coroner, said she was now suspicious of a surge in deaths in her county earlier this year, many of which involved severe pneumonia: “We had a lot of hospice deaths this year, and now it makes me go back and think, wow, did they have Covid? Did that accelerate their death?”
Ms. Evans, who is also a nurse, is frustrated that she will never know.
“When we go back to those deaths that occurred earlier this year, people who were negative for flu, now we’re having the ‘aha!’ moment,” she said. “They should have been tested for the coronavirus. As far as underreporting, I would say, definitely.””
Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll — The New York Times
“In New York City, emergency medical workers say that infection and death rates are probably far higher than reported. Given a record number of calls, many ambulance crews have encouraged anyone not critically ill to stay home. The result, medics say, is that many presumed coronavirus patients may never know for sure if they had the virus, so any who later die at home may never be categorized as having had it.”
“In Shelby County, Ala., Lina Evans, the coroner, said she was now suspicious of a surge in deaths in her county earlier this year, many of which involved severe pneumonia: “We had a lot of hospice deaths this year, and now it makes me go back and think, wow, did they have Covid? Did that accelerate their death?”
Ms. Evans, who is also a nurse, is frustrated that she will never know.
“When we go back to those deaths that occurred earlier this year, people who were negative for flu, now we’re having the ‘aha!’ moment,” she said. “They should have been tested for the coronavirus. As far as underreporting, I would say, definitely.””
Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll — The New York Times
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Got distracted, didn't reply to this part.
This could work, but my concern here is that there is not a mechanism to control run-away prices.
I've said it before, but I believe price transparency and competition (among hospitals, among drug companies, and even among physicians/providers) is necessary to both increase the quality of care, and drive down prices.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
They have a couple of distinct advantages: A much younger age distribution and much less chronic illness of the types we currently associate with bad outcomes from Covid infection.
https://electrek.co/2020/04/05/tesla-video-making-ventilators-car-parts/
If you think theft of catalytic converters is bad, looming mass theft of Tesla?
If you think theft of catalytic converters is bad, looming mass theft of Tesla?
So much to read..... I think everyone should have healthcare. Shouldn't be tied to your job.
Hospitals should be government run and paid for by taxes. Glad I live in Canada. If something ever comes up we don't have to worry about if we can afford it or not. You need it, it gets taken care of.
Hospitals should be government run and paid for by taxes. Glad I live in Canada. If something ever comes up we don't have to worry about if we can afford it or not. You need it, it gets taken care of.
This is a quote from the NYTimes article ( Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll — The New York Times )
“I kept trying to get him tested from the beginning,” Ms. Murillo said. “They told me no.”
Frustrated, Ms. Murillo enlisted friends to call the C.D.C. on her behalf, urging a post-mortem test. Then she hired a private company to conduct an autopsy; the owner pleaded for a coronavirus test from local and federal authorities.
On Saturday afternoon, 19 days after the death, Ms. Murillo received a call from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, she said. The health department had gone to the funeral home where her husband’s body was resting and taken a sample for a coronavirus test. He tested positive.”
How long does the CV19 last on/in a body? Do we know?
“I kept trying to get him tested from the beginning,” Ms. Murillo said. “They told me no.”
Frustrated, Ms. Murillo enlisted friends to call the C.D.C. on her behalf, urging a post-mortem test. Then she hired a private company to conduct an autopsy; the owner pleaded for a coronavirus test from local and federal authorities.
On Saturday afternoon, 19 days after the death, Ms. Murillo received a call from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, she said. The health department had gone to the funeral home where her husband’s body was resting and taken a sample for a coronavirus test. He tested positive.”
How long does the CV19 last on/in a body? Do we know?
ZachF
Active Member
Especially among the at-risk elderly population. They need the highest protection if we are to get through this, because they are the most likely by a considerable margin to need HC resources if infected. Eventually the rest of us will have to get back to work, or this all will be for nothing.
Those of you with elderly relatives and friends should volunteer to get supplies for them and call them often (sheltering is lonely), send pictures, etc. Figure out any way to be social while distant.
455
1) China gov lying to its ppl and the world is no news. The coverup of truth and suppression of whistle blowers should be criticized.
2) overall, I dont think China did a good job, even if the outbreak is "truely" contained. The shock therapy they applied will have long lasting consequences, socially and economically. the cratered economy will take long time to revive. and the credibility of the authoritarian gov further diminished. Not to mention everything happening in NYC: lack of ppe/ventilators/overwhelmed hospitals all happened in Wuhan an order of magnitude severe.
3) I would give u.s. response 5 star rating (5 out of 10
). Its not about democracy limiting the gov power at its disposal. Its about preparedness/understanding of science from the leadership.
4) its a new virus so we all falter and then learn. The eastern tyranny and western arrogance both made the price tag heavier.
5) blaming each other does not help solve the current problem. In crisis, it's time for the u.s president to exhibit leadership among its ppl and around the world, as always is. currently, there is no leadership.
6) Im for leaving china/us comparison/competition off the topic. the modernization and transformation of China is a century long project since colonial time. Its a topic too big and a too complicated . A lot of ppl in China and the west are pushing for a more transparent/open China. But as big as it is, it has its own course to run. We all have to live with it. This might be Chernobyl for the ccp. I really hope so.
This really belongs to politics but I do want to share my 2 cents before mods(if they are still around) kick our ass.
1) China gov lying to its ppl and the world is no news. The coverup of truth and suppression of whistle blowers should be criticized.
2) overall, I dont think China did a good job, even if the outbreak is "truely" contained. The shock therapy they applied will have long lasting consequences, socially and economically. the cratered economy will take long time to revive. and the credibility of the authoritarian gov further diminished. Not to mention everything happening in NYC: lack of ppe/ventilators/overwhelmed hospitals all happened in Wuhan an order of magnitude severe.
3) I would give u.s. response 5 star rating (5 out of 10
). Its not about democracy limiting the gov power at its disposal. Its about preparedness/understanding of science from the leadership.4) its a new virus so we all falter and then learn. The eastern tyranny and western arrogance both made the price tag heavier.
5) blaming each other does not help solve the current problem. In crisis, it's time for the u.s president to exhibit leadership among its ppl and around the world, as always is. currently, there is no leadership.
6) Im for leaving china/us comparison/competition off the topic. the modernization and transformation of China is a century long project since colonial time. Its a topic too big and a too complicated . A lot of ppl in China and the west are pushing for a more transparent/open China. But as big as it is, it has its own course to run. We all have to live with it. This might be Chernobyl for the ccp. I really hope so.
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After some reflection on this my gut feel is the ventilators can be mostly hand built, and if they are mostly using existing parts, there is limited need for additional equipment.
For the hardware side they could set up a simple production line initially making 50-100 per day would be a great outcome.. as the vents are light just wheel them on trolleys between stations.. That is 2-4 per hour... say around 15 mins each, so the slowest station needs to complete in 15 mins... but could be duplicated.
For the software side, the software is common and relatively simple, they can start building the hardware before the software is 100% complete.
If they are using this manual process, the main issue is training the staff at each station to do their job, the best way to train is actually build vents, by optimistic view is 1-2 weeks of training would get it done.. but they may need 1-2 weeks to work out how to stage construction....
It may be a case that the best way to learn is simply try to do it, video the attempts, and have others analyse the video, and make suggestions.
Given that the video can be used for training, additional staff can practice and train before joining the line.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
First one is true - second one not so much. South Asians are particularly susceptible to T2D. And you have a lot of multi-generational households too. That's the reason for 21 day curfew in India.
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i'm wondering if they will even deliver this specific in-house design beyond the west coast. Here's Elon's latest tweet in regard to a question about whether they could ship these Tesla designed ventilators overseas:
Elon Musk on Twitter
I read that as Tesla wanting to keep the ventilators in a distance where they could make sure they work properly.
powertoold
Active Member
18% drop in world deaths last 24 hours after 3 days of stable deaths. Looks like the April slow down is here
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I don't know whether this was earlier shared. This is the recommendation of a group of epidemiologists including Scott Gottlieb.
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/
Specifically, they recommend coming out of stay at home orders when a few conditions are met.
ps :
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/
Specifically, they recommend coming out of stay at home orders when a few conditions are met.
The trigger for issuing a recommendation to step down from a stay-at-home-advisory back to “slow the spread” is when the number of new cases reported in a state has declined steadily for 14 days (i.e., one incubation period) and the jurisdiction is able to test everyone seeking care for COVID-19 symptoms.
I don't think any of the states hit with Covid are ready to get out of lockdown anytime soon.
ps :
- A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
- Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,22
- The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms, and
- The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.
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That is more true initially I could imagine the first few weeks worth going to California.. and Tesla staff helping get hospital staff up and running.
For interstate/overseas they can put together training videos/manuals for end users. but they need to be refined after feedback from real hospital staff attempting to use them,
A handful of interstate/overseas staff could visit for an intense training course.
Perhaps Tesla service in some countries may be able to be trained on how to service them.. or it might be simpler just to return to Fremont when they don't work....
powertoold
Active Member
That's a dumb metric to follow. Within a state, there are hot spots. The step down should be done at a more granular level, like county. Plus, a decline is stupid as well. Some countries have a small but steady case count. Any of this step down stuff should be done on a per capita case basis, not some arbitrary decline. Epidemiologists my ass.
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OT
stay safe down there Winfield
i grew up going to south Fort Myers/Estero w/ fam. had aunt and uncle snowbirds from northeast PA down to The Forest every year, this was the first they didn’t make it. uncle passed (not covid related), but many fond memories. at least i made it down to see them in their last year there...2019.
was debating leaving northeast after 4 wks of self quarantine and working remotely and going to hide the next 2 months or so in relatively quiet Palm Coast, north and on the opposite side of you...to basically do the same, but while looking at the ocean.
i know fla is in for a wave of sh*t, but i’m in a helluva spot here too, on NY/CT border. it hasn’t been fun.
not sure what to do, really.
stay safe everyone.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Here is some good news. They must be feeling good at WA DOH.
Governor Jay Inslee: Today, Washington is returning 400 ventilators so states like New York and others can have them. : CoronavirusWA
Governor Jay Inslee: Today, Washington is returning 400 ventilators so states like New York and others can have them. : CoronavirusWA
Every state in America is united in the fight to save the lives of our people. Though our mission is the same, our needs are different. Today, Washington is returning 400 ventilators so states like New York and others can have them.
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America’s COVID-19 testing has stalled, and that’s a big problem
This article came out a few days ago indicating that testing may have stalled around 100k per day. Analysis through April 1st.
Germany is testing the equivalent of double that amount per capita. So is the current thinking here that we may need to get to 200k tests per day to get in some level of control?
interestingly, if you look at the latest data after this article was published there is a big jump in tests: US Historical Data
An additional 227k tests processed on April 4th. We will have to see if this 200k a day trend continues.
This article came out a few days ago indicating that testing may have stalled around 100k per day. Analysis through April 1st.
Germany is testing the equivalent of double that amount per capita. So is the current thinking here that we may need to get to 200k tests per day to get in some level of control?
interestingly, if you look at the latest data after this article was published there is a big jump in tests: US Historical Data
An additional 227k tests processed on April 4th. We will have to see if this 200k a day trend continues.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You clearly didn't read the report. They specifically call out these aspects. They also talk about inter-state coordination where multiple states share a metropolitan area.
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