“Hell no!” States aren’t ready for Trump’s phased reopening, experts say
But, Bloom noted that the plan was vague on many decisions, including the gating. Two week declines in cases is a short period for this disease, given that there can be a two-week lag between an infection and getting test results back.
The plan also doesn’t offer guidance on what to do if a state experiences a resurgence of disease, whether its from undetected spread of disease or from introduction of new cases via travelers. The latter has been a particular issue for many places that have relaxed constraints, such as Hong Kong and Singapore.
Plus, the plan ”assumes that testing will be at a level that at the moment does not exist," Bloom said. He, like many other experts, have repeatedly noted that the country’s capacity for testing and contact tracing is below what’s needed to adequately detect and stop the spread of disease.
William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard, largely echoed all the sentiments. “There is much to appreciate in this plan, including its stepwise thinking and its thoughtful nature." But he added, "the glaring problem within it" remains the problem of testing.
Though it’s impossible to say exactly how much testing we should do or be able to do on a daily or weekly basis, Hanage notes that the World Health Organization suggests that country’s aim to do enough testing until only 10 percent or less of tests come back positive. Currently, the US has a 20 percent positive rate overall. This is difficult to interpret, however, because different places have different levels of infection and access to and criteria for testing. For instance, places such as New York and New Jersey are swamped with cases—and positive test results—while others are experiencing more sporadic cases that spur less testing.
