Coronavirus

[FoverM]

With all the craziness today (and tonight), I'd prefer to live in less "interesting" times!

 

[dhanson865]

US smartphone sales drop 48% MoM amid the COVID-19 crisis during W13 - Counterpoint Research

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

And here comes wave 2 . . . .

While none of the things that Georgia is doing should be reopened at this point, I do think and hope that states' public health departments are looking at the data and analyzing where new cases are actually coming from. I would like a data-driven approach to what actually can be re-opened, and what is too risky with significant numbers of cases in the community.

For example:

1) Are grocery stores safe? I have no idea. I'd like to know how many people have picked up their disease from the grocery store via community transmission, and how it happened. I'd like to know whether masks were in use, etc.

2) What about parks? Can they be opened with distancing? It seems like they probably could be and it would probably be for the best. I'd prefer to have the restrooms left closed. I'm a bit concerned in San Diego, because they are opening up some parks, but it looks like they are opening up the restrooms as well! Is this data driven? They are leaving the parking lots and other amenities closed, however.

Anyway, it would be good to get education on what is actually dangerous and what isn't. I bet people could handle it.

While the decision in Florida to open the beaches seemed silly on its face, I saw a couple pictures (I did not watch video or look extensively) purporting to show lack of social distancing, but it seemed fine to me. It looked like family groups together, and most people were apart. It seems to me that opening beaches could be ok, with restrictions. It seems like a fairly safe environment. But again, would be nice to be data driven. If we actually get proximity contact tracing going, it could really help inform these decisions and identify what is actually risky and what is minimal risk.

I can't imagine that public bathrooms are safe, though.

 

[dhanson865]

$0 Oil Forces Canada To Shut Down Crude Production | OilPrice.com

 

[EVNow]

It seems to me that opening beaches could be ok, with restrictions.

I think open air gatherings, esp near humid beaches would be fine. At least better than closed area gatherings. Restaurants, bars etc are probably worse. Groceries I hope can be made pickup only.

In general it seems only close contacts result in infections except in the case of superspreaders.

 

[Daniel in SD]

There was a covid-19 Q&A session in Los Angeles today that included one of the lead researchers on the LA antibody study.

The protocol is different from the Stanford study -- they sought to randomly select subjects from a third-party database, and then imposed quotas based on sex, age and race/ethnicity.

At about 18:20 on the video linked below there is a discussion of the test
At about 29:00 there is a discussion of how they recruited test subjects

There are other discussions sprinkled throughout the Q&A.

Los Angeles County on Twitter

I hope this wasn't the same study.

“Some people assumed I must have some secret hookup,” Benincasa said. “That’s absolutely not the case.”

Instead, she owes her test to an eagle-eyed friend, who showed her an online survey from the county health department and USC. The survey was seeking people to participate in a randomized trial to collect blood samples to test for antibodies.

Since she had exposure to two people who had later been diagnosed with COVID-19, but had no sign of symptoms herself, her friend said she may be a good fit for the study.

Coronavirus antibody tests are almost impossible to get. Meet three L.A. residents who got them
A randomized trial?
She did test negative but whatever study this was doesn't sound very random.

BIAS WARNING: I do not think 4.1% of Angelenos have had COVID-19.

 

[AZRI11]

I hope this wasn't the same study.

Coronavirus antibody tests are almost impossible to get. Meet three L.A. residents who got them
A randomized trial?
She did test negative but whatever study this was doesn't sound very random.

BIAS WARNING: I do not think 4.1% of Angelenos have had COVID-19.

I believe it. This virus spreads very easily. Homeless shelter in Massachusetts had 146 out of 397 infected, and the best part is that they were all asymptomatic Testing Reveals 'Stunning' Asymptomatic Coronavirus Spread Among Boston's Homeless

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I hope this wasn't the same study.

Coronavirus antibody tests are almost impossible to get. Meet three L.A. residents who got them
A randomized trial?
She did test negative but whatever study this was doesn't sound very random.

BIAS WARNING: I do not think 4.1% of Angelenos have had COVID-19.

Some background on this extremely careful study:

Coronavirus in Oklahoma: Oklahoman behind population testing for COVID-19 antibodies

Looks like this may have been the test they used? Not sure. Always good to get some business when your drug testing business is slow.

https://imgcdn.mckesson.com/CumulusWeb/Click_and_learn/COVID19_CDC_Evaluation_Report.pdf

This one has the verification numbers the Stanford study talks about:

https://imgcdn.mckesson.com/CumulusWeb/Click_and_learn/Premier_Biotech_COVID19_Package_Insert.pdf

Unapproved Chinese coronavirus tests being used in at least 2 states

"Hangzhou Biotest Biotech, for example, provides U.S.-based Premier Biotech's COVID-19 tests, according to the FDA website. Premier supplied tests to the Los Angeles County Public Health Department, which teamed up with the University of Southern California for a comprehensive antibody testing study that began this month. County officials hope the study will show how deadly the coronavirus is and demonstrate the effectiveness of strategies like social distancing and wearing masks."


Trawled info from replies in this thread:

Ryan Radecki, MD MS on Twitter

EXTREME BIAS WARNING: I do not think even 3% of Angelenos have had SARS-CoV-2!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Homeless shelter in Massachusetts had 146 out of 397 infected, and the best part is that they were all asymptomatic

* At the time of testing.

I am interested in the follow up on this story. It would be interesting to know how many of the 146 people testing positive ended up showing some symptoms. Generally I'd expect that 100 to 120 of them would show some symptoms. Keep an eye on it and be sure to follow up post once the media aggressively follows up in the next couple days.

 

[AZRI11]

* At the time of testing.

I am interested in the follow up on this story. It would be interesting to know how many of the 146 people testing positive ended up showing some symptoms. Generally I'd expect that 100 to 120 of them would show some symptoms. Keep an eye on it and be sure to follow up post once the media aggressively follows up in the next couple days.

Nursing home in my city has over 120 positive cases 28 deaths. Two miles from my front door. I know people who are infected and some who have died. Community raises $8K for East Providence nursing home hit hard by pandemic

 

[Daniel in SD]

Unapproved Chinese coronavirus tests being used in at least 2 states

"Hangzhou Biotest Biotech, for example, provides U.S.-based Premier Biotech's COVID-19 tests, according to the FDA website. Premier supplied tests to the Los Angeles County Public Health Department, which teamed up with the University of Southern California for a comprehensive antibody testing study that began this month. County officials hope the study will show how deadly the coronavirus is and demonstrate the effectiveness of strategies like social distancing and wearing masks."

Your bias is causing you to discount the possibility that the Chinese government banned the export of the tests because they are too accurate.

 

[SVMike]

2) What about parks? Can they be opened with distancing? It seems like they probably could be and it would probably be for the best. I'd prefer to have the restrooms left closed. I'm a bit concerned in San Diego, because they are opening up some parks, but it looks like they are opening up the restrooms as well! Is this data driven? They are leaving the parking lots and other amenities closed, however.

The irrational (IMHO) closing of "outdoor" spaces is not data driven.

But there is data:

Coronavirus Transmission: Chinese Study Shows COVID More Likely Spread Indoors | National Review

Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments. Although this finding was expected, its significance has not been well recognised by the community and by policy makers.

 

[winfield100]

No one will be happy with how this all ends. And how could anyone be anyway?

One thing I assume we can all agree on: the entire system, CDC at the front, completely screwed the pooch on the testing front. We have been flailing about in the dark, forced to make truly earth shattering decisions with woefully incomplete information.

Accurate and plentiful testing mobilized the moment this new disease appeared would have allowed for exactly what we have not had - informed decisions. It would have also indicated a leadership that possessed competence and vision. Or at least one that followed a well established playbook for dealing with an outbreak, or paid attention to at least one of the multiple bad virus movies they had watched.

We have all the technology and tools we need to have defeated this virus from the start. The failure here is complete. This virus could have been so much worse. In the end it is taking it easy on us, perhaps feeling some pity for the host warm bloods as they convulse in their ineptitude.

We had a full two months warning it was coming and completely failed at preparation. Now we bankrupt entire industries, starve people out and shred our constitutions in an attempt to get the best of the situation.

Well, as long as someone gets to make a buck, I guess all is good. Because that seems to be all anyone gives a f#*k about anyway.

May 2006. 233 page manual from CDC on dealing with pandemics.
It wasn’t CDC who “ _____ the pooch”,
it’s the kleptocrats in charge, who defunded the govt so they could drown it in a bathtub, over the last 40 years beginning with Reagan to the present occupants of the White House, mainly Republicans
Almost 400 empty positions at CDC went unfilled.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf

 

[traxila]

May 2006. 233 page manual from CDC on dealing with pandemics.
It wasn’t CDC who “ _____ the pooch”,
it’s the kleptocrats in charge, who defunded the govt so they could drown it in a bathtub, over the last 40 years beginning with Reagan to the present occupants of the White House, mainly Republicans
Almost 400 empty positions at CDC went unfilled.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf

Granted. But the CDC failed. Because our leadership failed.

Probably feel this way because I have a personality defect that the President does not possess, because my overall assessment is that WE failed. We failed ourselves and the weakest among us.

 

[mikevbf]

Here is a summary of NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's update from yesterday:

"2,131 hospitalized covid positive patients. We are just under 700 ventilated patients.

Testing:

On the patient side: we are testing every single patient coming into the hospital for inpatient care, we are also testing patients who are having procedures on the outpatient side. Specifically PCR testing that signifies presence of the virus.

Antibody testing: must be asymptomatic for 14 days

PPE: no critical shortages of PPE.

Queens is a hotspot area: the numbers in queens are starting to decline. There are still patients being admitted, but our discharges are greater than our admissions. We are hoping that we have peaked.

We are seeing the northern manhattan becoming a hot spot. Columbia and Allen campuses are being pushed.

Healthcare disparities: covid is bringing to light the glaring inequities in our healthcare system, and now we are going to have to make meaningful changes. The underlying causes for healthcare disparities, poverty, food sources, where one lives, environmental factors—many elements. We have to think about a different healthcare system. We must address these multifactorial challenges and rethink our healthcare system."

 

[JRP3]

CAC: COVID-19-associated coagulopathy

COVID-19 and Coagulopathy - Hematology.org

Why are so many COVID-19 patients also seeing blood clots?

 

[jhm]

Two days since this revision, my dumb-ass model projections have stabilized. We're looking at hitting 87k deaths in June with this first wave. It's too early to tell if we'll have much of second wave.

Date \ As Of 2020-04-15 2020-04-16 2020-04-17
2020-04-15        32,588        32,443        32,443
2020-04-16        35,307        34,617        34,617
2020-04-17        38,042        37,205        37,154
2020-04-18        40,778        39,779        39,719
2020-04-19        43,497        42,324        42,253
2020-04-20        46,185        44,826        44,744
2020-04-21        48,828        47,272        47,179
2020-04-22        51,415        49,654        49,548
2020-04-23        53,936        51,961        51,843
2020-04-24        56,381        54,187        54,056
2020-04-25        58,743        56,326        56,183
2020-04-26        61,018        58,374        58,218
2020-04-27        63,200        60,329        60,160
2020-05-01        70,963        67,196        66,976
2020-06-01        93,694        86,234        85,810
2020-07-01        95,690        87,733        87,283
2020-08-01        95,856        87,846        87,394
2020-09-01        95,868        87,854        87,401
2021-01-01        95,869        87,855        87,402

View attachment 533591

View attachment 533592

Three days later. Year end totals are still going down. In fact, totals have remained below the expected curve for awhile. As governors open up massage parlors and movie theaters, we'll see if we start to bend the curve back to higher death rates.


Date \ As Of 2020-04-15 2020-04-16 2020-04-17 2020-04-18 2020-04-19 2020-04-20
2020-04-15 32,588 32,443 32,443 32,443 32,443 32,443
2020-04-16 35,307 34,617 34,617 34,619 34,619 34,619
2020-04-17 38,042 37,205 37,154 37,147 37,147 37,147
2020-04-18 40,778 39,779 39,719 39,014 39,014 39,014
2020-04-19 43,497 42,324 42,253 41,435 40,575 40,575
2020-04-20 46,185 44,826 44,744 43,804 42,828 42,514
2020-04-21 48,828 47,272 47,179 46,112 45,013 44,678
2020-04-22 51,415 49,654 49,548 48,349 47,123 46,766
2020-04-23 53,936 51,961 51,843 50,507 49,151 48,772
2020-04-24 56,381 54,187 54,056 52,581 51,092 50,691
2020-04-25 58,743 56,326 56,183 54,565 52,942 52,519
2020-04-26 61,018 58,374 58,218 56,457 54,700 54,254
2020-04-27 63,200 60,329 60,160 58,256 56,364 55,896
2020-04-28 65,286 62,188 62,006 59,960 57,935 57,445
2020-04-29 67,276 63,952 63,757 61,570 59,414 58,902
2020-04-30 69,168 65,621 65,413 63,087 60,803 60,270
2020-05-01 70,963 67,196 66,976 64,514 62,103 61,550
2020-06-01 93,694 86,234 85,810 81,161 76,801 75,924
2020-07-01 95,690 87,733 87,283 82,365 77,781 76,867
2020-08-01 95,856 87,846 87,394 82,450 77,845 76,928
2020-09-01 95,868 87,854 87,401 82,455 77,849 76,931
2021-01-01 95,869 87,855 87,402 82,455 77,849 76,931

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The new hotness in preprint servers, redstate.com - this is the short summary of the LA study:

They assume 100% specificity.

https://www.redstate.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Los-Angeles-County-Seroprevalence-Study.pdf

I guess it is a preprint, but what possible motivation could there be for presenting these results credulously?

 

[ggr]

And here comes wave 2 . . . .

It can't be wave 2, since wave 1 hasn't finished yet. Stupid to re-open now, I agree.

 

[bkp_duke]

No one will be happy with how this all ends. And how could anyone be anyway?

One thing I assume we can all agree on: the entire system, CDC at the front, completely screwed the pooch on the testing front. We have been flailing about in the dark, forced to make truly earth shattering decisions with woefully incomplete information.

Accurate and plentiful testing mobilized the moment this new disease appeared would have allowed for exactly what we have not had - informed decisions. It would have also indicated a leadership that possessed competence and vision. Or at least one that followed a well established playbook for dealing with an outbreak, or paid attention to at least one of the multiple bad virus movies they had watched.

We have all the technology and tools we need to have defeated this virus from the start. The failure here is complete. This virus could have been so much worse. In the end it is taking it easy on us, perhaps feeling some pity for the host warm bloods as they convulse in their ineptitude.

We had a full two months warning it was coming and completely failed at preparation. Now we bankrupt entire industries, starve people out and shred our constitutions in an attempt to get the best of the situation.

Well, as long as someone gets to make a buck, I guess all is good. Because that seems to be all anyone gives a f#*k about anyway.

The CDC makes a buck? Because seriously, they were the ones first tasked with producing a test, and they screwed it up royally (by their own admission).

Situation like that, I've got no problem with a private company coming in with a better test and making a buck in the process.