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An excellent intro to covid19, and a great demonstation of why its good to not get sick in the first wave of covid19. It an frontline discussion regarding differing patterns of patients (eg happy hypoxia).

The improvement in medical practise will be one reason why curve flattening is benefical even if the area under the curve is the same, simply because covid19 specific techniques are developed.

It seems that current medical protocol can result in unnecessary mortality due to treatments transitioning a significant cohort of patients from a path to recovery, to a path to complication/increased fatalilty.
 
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...-after-experimental-jabs-20200501-p54ovp.html




Saying we might have a good idea if a vaccine works by June might be just as wrong as saying it will take years.
Truth is we don't know until we have good evidence, but IMO saying we might have a working vaccine by Christmas is more right than saying it will definitely take years.

We can't pin our hopes on a vaccine until we have one, but if we are going to try to guess a timeline, try to make a balanced guess.

Balanced guess is that it will take a long time. Historically no market coronavirus vacinnes have made it to human, although they do exist for veterinarian use. One of the problems is the really low fatalilty rate in humans, since young people are basically unaffected by covid19, the safety challenge for a vacinne is difficult - compared to the elderly (for example)
 
Balanced guess is that it will take a long time. Historically no market coronavirus vacinnes have made it to human, although they do exist for veterinarian use. One of the problems is the really low fatalilty rate in humans, since young people are basically unaffected by covid19, the safety challenge for a vacinne is difficult - compared to the elderly (for example)

They can have a vaccine which they know mostly works, and decide not to apply it to people below a certain age, etc.


Human trials began last week, and the team working on the vaccine hope that if it works a million doses could be given to the public from September. A successful vaccine is key to lifting social distancing measures.

This is just one vaccine and one team, but they seem optimistic... the trial is 6,000 people and as you can see they are planing a mass roll-out if it works.
 
these are the type of people Elon is respecting over experts. Genuinely worried about dudes mental health. ♠️♣️ ℕℍ™️♣️♠️ on Twitter

Some institutional holders need to get the Board to put a stop to this lunacy.
No point bringing this kind of thing here. There is a separate thread on Musk.

I’ve been writing about the earlier part for a while. To open or not is not the question. The question is how.
 
We already have data for April 30! A more modest increase of 2,201, but I am curious what effect it has on the projections.
Sure, for 4/30, deaths are up 2,201, for a total of 63,856. The continues to push the dumb-ass and 14-day ultimate projections to 84,668 and 114,412, respectively.

upload_2020-5-1_0-39-46.png

upload_2020-5-1_0-40-39.png
 
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Reactions: dfwatt
They can have a vaccine which they know mostly works, and decide not to apply it to people below a certain age, etc.




This is just one vaccine and one team, but they seem optimistic... the trial is 6,000 people and as you can see they are planing a mass roll-out if it works.

I'm fairly confident humans will get one eventually, but i dont think it is a no brainer trivial challenge.
Evaluating Biological Mechanisms of Adverse Events - Adverse Effects of Vaccines - NCBI Bookshelf
Im concerned about the balance between 2 effects

1) it doesn't increase immune response to the level that causes a new covid19 infection to jump to cytokine storm.

2)it doesn't cause adverse effects in people who never get exposed to covid19 anyway.

I don't think it is at all difficult to make a covid19 vaccine that is ok is healthy people but will increase predisposition to cytokine storm in comorbid people, and thats a problem, if the vaccine protects someone who wouldn't die but predisposes someone who might die to die faster, thats an ethical challenge.
 
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Reactions: MC3OZ
On this day of disappointment (except for accumulators), here's some hopeful news (for folks open to peer-reviewed science currently unreported by media and government):

Cheap and available methods likely exist already to allow societies to reopen while protecting everyone, including the most vulnerable, from COVID-19 and other pandemics (which are becoming more frequent). We don't have to wait years for a COVID-19 vaccine, which may never come (like the nonexistent vaccines for SARS, MERS, Ebola, Marburg, Zika, Dengue, and others).

Protected Group Immunity, Not a Vaccine, is the Way to Stop the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Richard Z. Cheng, MD, PhD
[Peter's note: Dr. Cheng is Associate Director of three current clinical trials in China, according to this source. His curriculum vitae is here.]

Excerpts [emphasis added]:

1. Vitamin C has potent antiviral effects through virucidal and immune modulating effects. [4-13]

2. Vitamin C is a prototypical potent antioxidant that plays a critical role in the prevention and treatment of the marked inflammatory response to viruses and other pathogens. Clinically vitamin C is effective in preventing and treating pneumonia [12], multi-organ failure [14], and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). [14-18] Another related antioxidant that has shown promise for acute cases of pneumonia is glutathione. [19]

3. Preliminary clinical evidence from China and elsewhere seems to show high-dose IV vitamin C is effective in treating Covid-19 patients. [20,21]

4. Out of the few treatments being tried for Covid-19, high-dose intravenous vitamin C (HDIVC) shows very promising results in treating critical cases of Covid-19 with reduced fatalities, reduced ICU or hospital stays [22-25] and is very safe, without significant side effects (caveat, G6PD deficiency). [22,26] HDIVC's effectiveness in treating infectious (including viral) diseases and its high safety profile is based on solid science with decades of basic and clinical research reflected in tens of thousands of research papers in the world's largest biomedical library, the United States National Library of Medicine, hosted at the NIH (pubmed.gov).

...

With vaccines against Covid-19 not anywhere near, the only other hope to stop the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be group ["herd"] immunity: when enough members of a population develop immunity....

...sufficient doses of vitamin C (3000 mg/d in divided doses), and other nutrients such as vitamin D3 (2000-5000 IU/d), zinc (20 mg/d), magnesium (400 mg/d), and selenium (100 mcg/d), lower the risk of the public developing the infection, and can protect patients in the initial stages of infection from progressing to more serious disease. [22]

Vitamins C and D are known to assist and empower the immune system to prevent viral infection, [22-31] and vitamin C in high oral doses to bowel tolerance [32,33] can denature viruses and prevent damage to the body from oxidative stress. Supplemental high-dose oral or intravenous vitamin C is indicated in severe infections and oxidative stress because they cause the vitamin C level to drop to zero. [27]

Zinc, magnesium, and selenium are known anti-viral agents. [30,31] With such a treatment that has worked to prevent serious infection of a variety of other viruses, further research is clearly indicated here. Moreover, the WHO currently recommends research on vitamin C as a promising treatment for COVID-19. [34] When proven, this strategy not only can help stop Covid-19 pandemic, it will also protect us in the future epidemics.

[Peter's note: the cited references are mostly peer-reviewed medical and scientific journals, as you can see by clicking the citation numbers.]

Bring on the Disagrees. :)
 
I'm fairly confident humans will get one eventually, but i dont think it is a no brainer trivial challenge.
Evaluating Biological Mechanisms of Adverse Events - Adverse Effects of Vaccines - NCBI Bookshelf
Im concerned about the balance between 2 effects

1) it doesn't increase immune response to the level that causes a new covid19 infection to jump to cytokine storm.

2)it doesn't cause adverse effects in people who never get exposed to covid19 anyway.

I don't think it is at all difficult to make a covid19 vaccine that is ok is healthy people but will increase predisposition to cytokine storm in comorbid people, and thats a problem, if the vaccine protects someone who wouldn't die but predisposes someone who might die to die faster, thats an ethical challenge.

OK I get your points but they specifically said this:-

Most other teams have had to start with small clinical trials of a few hundred participants to demonstrate safety. But scientists at the university's Jenner Institute had a running start on a vaccine, having proven in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against an earlier coronavirus — were harmless to humans.

But in the technology that the institute is using, a different virus is modified first to neutralise its effects and then to make it mimic a targeted virus — in this case, the virus that causes COVID-19.

So it seems like the modified virus they are using to trigger the immune response might be fairly safe... Perhaps this only addresses point 2.. point 1 is probably a balance-of-risks situation, try to make sure they don't have COVID-19 before administering the vaccine.
 
"A UPMC doctor on Thursday made a case the death rate for people infected with the new coronavirus may be as low as 0.25%"

“Many people just didn’t feel sick at all and recovered without difficulty.”

UPMC doctor argues COVID-19 not as deadly as feared, says its hospitals will shift back to normal

Fancy that. Something tells me CNN won't be pushing out the good news.

What say our esteemed genius, bkp "napoleon" duke?

I can find you climate change denying scientists too if you want to cherry pick bad science
 
I came across this chart from @OpenTable, via @DrEricDing.
EW3S6rTWoAEDdq7.jpg


This chart shows that Restaurant reservations started about 2 week before states order restaurant closed. In some case, there may be a little anticipation of a closure, but most of the closure happed 4 or more days before. So I take this as evidence that even with state mandated closures, Covid19 was likely killing the restaurant business. Consumer choice may well lead ahead of policy.

The causality is important here because when states "reopen the economy," this does not mean that consumer will return immediately to pre-Covid BAU. Specifically, if it consumer choice leading to decline in patronage, then "reopening" will have minimal effect.

My family used to dine out 3 or 4 times per week. Gov Kent of GA is reopening the restaurants for us, but we are very unlikely to return to the restaurants anytime soon. It may take a month or more before we dine out again. I'm sure other Georgians feel differently about it, but my expectation is that it will be a slow ramp back up. Some more vulnerable residents may never return to former levels of patronage.

In my view, it is not "Stay-at-home" orders that are killing the economy. Rather it is new Covid-19 reality of collective and personal vulnerabilities that are radically changing economic behaviors. Reopening will be a slow process.
 
I can find you climate change denying scientists too if you want to cherry pick bad science
Can you point out the bad science, or can you only do an ad hominem?

So he gives "bad science" huh

Some of his resume:

Dr. Yealy is
"Chair of the Department of Emergency Medicine at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine and the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center"

In 2009, he received the Outstanding Contribution in Research Award from the American College of Emergency Physicians

The author of more than 300 works, Dr. Yealy is also co-editor of "The Trauma Manual: Trauma and Acute Care Surgery," a practical guide to emergency and surgical care which has been adopted by many training programs throughout the nation since its publication in 1997.

Donald M. Yealy, MD

It's funny how if someone agrees with you (ie validates your false assumptions) you think they are right, yet when someone with a PhD or MD disagrees with you they do "bad science". What say you about this phenomenon?
 
Here we are, May 1, 2020.

19,509,000 people have died so far this year.
234,000 from Covid-19.
19,275,000 from other causes.

We can go to Walmart and ride on the subway. But we cannot surf in the vast ocean or go to the state park to bird watch.

Unemployment is the highest in modern history and we are only getting started.

Stupidity reigns as never before.
 
"A UPMC doctor on Thursday made a case the death rate for people infected with the new coronavirus may be as low as 0.25%"

“Many people just didn’t feel sick at all and recovered without difficulty.”

UPMC doctor argues COVID-19 not as deadly as feared, says its hospitals will shift back to normal

Fancy that. Something tells me CNN won't be pushing out the good news.

What say our esteemed genius, bkp "napoleon" duke?

As far as I understand, he is talking about a "hypothetical scenario", and wasting our time with wishful thinking.
 
Here we are, May 1, 2020.

19,509,000 people have died so far this year.
234,000 from Covid-19.
19,275,000 from other causes.

We can go to Walmart and ride on the subway. But we cannot surf in the vast ocean or go to the state park to bird watch.

Unemployment is the highest in modern history and we are only getting started.

Stupidity reigns as never before.

There is a middle path - "social distancing works" but most activities can be modified to make them more safe.

Considering the Tesla Fremont factory I would argue it is more controlled environment than Walmart or a subway.
Lots can be done to improve safety in a factory environment.

Other activities like surfing or bird watching need to be considered on merit, but "social distancing" and crowd control can be done.

For example they can set up web cams at beaches and other locations with random patrols to monitor how the space is being used, break the rules, then the space will be closed.

I do consider all forms of public transport higher risk for all sorts of reasons, private cars a much lower risk...

The restrictions should be based on a risk assessment.

Our restrictions here were generally good, but some shops did a much better job of crowd control than others.
In general I still consider shopping more risky than well managed factory work.
 
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