Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Another topic:

Amazon will be spending $4 billion in Q2 on coronavirus protection expenses. It's something to keep in mind for Tesla's expenses going forward. Since the government is letting companies fend for themselves rather than absorbing the cost (go small government, amirite?), it's possible Tesla will need to allocate about $100-200 million per quarter, for a couple quarters, towards testing and protection expenses for their employees. How much exactly, I don't know, but that seems like a reasonable amount (on the high side I would guess) to account for in the next quarter. Obviously they're a lot smaller than Amazon, so that's the scaled number (Amazon has over 800k employees, Tesla about 50k).

AMZN will spend hundreds of millions on testing alone.

"Under normal circumstances, in this coming Q2, we’d expect to make some $4 billion or more in operating profit. But these aren’t normal circumstances. Instead, we expect to spend the entirety of that $4 billion, and perhaps a bit more, on COVID-related expenses getting products to customers and keeping employees safe. This includes investments in personal protective equipment, enhanced cleaning of our facilities, less efficient process paths that better allow for effective social distancing, higher wages for hourly teams, and hundreds of millions to develop our own COVID-19 testing capabilities. There is a lot of uncertainty in the world right now, and the best investment we can make is in the safety and well-being of our hundreds of thousands of employees."

https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/2020/Q1/Amazon-Q1-2020-Earnings-Release.pdf

 

[jhm]

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

The excess death dashboard from the CDC is interesting to look at.

Consider NYC: COVID_excess_mort_04292020
At its recent peak to deaths (from all causes) have been about 6 times threshold based on expected deaths. Flagged Covid-19 deaths only account for a portion of this excess. This suggest Covid-19 may be causing far more deaths than reported.

Consider Colorado: COVID_excess_mort_04292020
Colorado excess deaths 36% to 41% above threshold. Only a fraction of this excess is explained by reported cases.

Consider South Carolina: COVID_excess_mort_04292020
SC has done little social distancing and reported few Covid19 death, and yet excess deaths are about 20% to 25% above threshold. This looks quite suspicious. SC could have a much larger outbreak than they think.

Consider Mississippi: COVID_excess_mort_04292020
This state also looks suspiciously under-reported.

I could go on. Some states have reported a lot of Covid deaths, but may be missing some. Other states look severely under reported, but excess death reveals perhaps hidden risk. Then there are states that have low excess deaths, for example Georgia. In any case, excess deaths gives us a way to critique reporting of covid deaths.

 

[eevee-fan]

Now, remember excess death then add in normal fatality from other deaths that would have normally happened (traffic, etc). So even worse!

 

[jhm]

Do you manually add the data to your database or does worldometers.info they have a data file available?

manually, typically just one point a day. But sometimes the historical series gets adjusted.

 

[jhm]

Now, remember excess death then add in normal fatality from other deaths that would have normally happened (traffic, etc). So even worse!

True. That one way that a state like South Carolina may be disadvantaged. The get exposed to Covid19 plus they don't get the other fatality reductions, like traffic fatalities, that stay-at-home states benefit from.

 

[azaz]

Is this some sort of joke?
Elon Musk on Twitter

How is he this dumb? Deaths are still up way more than normal. And that’s without as many flu and auto deaths because of lockdown.

The raw amount of deaths actually points to a C19 related death undercount not overcount. He’s getting numerous people tweeting him and clarifying this point for two days now. He has to be cherry picking on purpose.

I'm repeatedly shocked that he's refusing to make a nuanced argument that it's safe to resume life because we can take steps to do so (masks, testing, tracing, distancing etc) and is just going full denialist instead. How is the Board not sitting him down and explaining this *sugar* to him?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Is this some sort of joke?
Elon Musk on Twitter

How is he this dumb? Deaths are still up way more than normal. And that’s without as many flu and auto deaths because of lockdown.

The raw amount of deaths actually points to a C19 related death undercount not overcount. He’s getting numerous people tweeting him and clarifying this point for two days now. He has to be cherry picking on purpose.

Has someone run the trailing 6 months valuation? How many more days do we need above what level for this insanity to end? Can someone plot a curve of “days till end of insanity” vs. “avg TSLA price level from now until milestone met”?

 

[Norbert]

Again, deaths up 2,389 on 4/29 to a total of 61,655. This continues to push ultimates projected by my dumb-ass model and the 14-day model to 82,018 and 106,406, respectively.

We already have data for April 30! A more modest increase of 2,201, but I am curious what effect it has on the projections.

 

[TEG]

If people keep their distance - frankly beach is probably a low risk place. Winds, humidity should work to reduce risk.
I think outdoors in general are less risky than indoors. Gyms, bars, restaurants and offices are probably the worst.

The part that always worries me are the public restrooms.
From what I can tell, outdoors with a breeze is much better than a busy indoor enclosed location with little air circulation and lots of people touching the same things.

Also I think those "blow dryers" for your hands might throw droplets around the room.
Wash Your Hands—but Beware the Electric Hand Dryer

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

That town is 36 miles from downtown Milan.

You think that same fatality rate will sweep across the entire US?

As things are, I doubt it, because state governments are acting in a suitably conservative manner. I think it could if we significantly relax our shelter in place orders without sufficient testing and/or surveillance. Even an IFR of just .27% would kill a million people in the US if everyone were infected.

 

[Norbert]

It is perfectly reasonable to "open" up low risk high reward activities today. Low risk would be things where people can easily maintain 6 or more feet distance and are outdoors. The science tells us that most transmissions take place indoors and from family members. This means that people should be going outdoors and not sitting next to each other just watching TV.

That doesn't hold up to logic. At night, people will still sit next to each other watching TV. If one was already infected, they still infect each other. If they were not already infected, they don't get infected out of the blue, unless someone goes outside and gets infected outside.

The more outside activity you allow, the more people will meet on the sidewalk and in public transportation. The rate at which infections are decreasing is still slow. The sooner we get down to a level where we can do test & trace, the sooner we can open up. If you open up before that, R will go above 1 again, more people will get infected than not. The US population will not allow the horror of going for herd immunity. We will have to close up again, and the whole thing will just take longer.

I still see no alternative than to go for test & trace first. Everything else seems, honestly, wishful thinking. Ignoring cause and effect.

 

[azaz]

That doesn't hold up to logic. At night, people will still sit next to each other watching TV. If one was already infected, they still infect each other. If they were not already infected, they don't get infected out of the blue, unless someone goes outside and gets infected outside.

The more outside activity you allow, the more people will meet on the sidewalk and in public transportation. The rate at which infections are decreasing is still slow. The sooner we get down to a level where we can to test & trace, the sooner we can open up. If you open up before that, R will go above 1 again, more people will get infected than not. The US population will not allow the horror of going for herd immunity. We will have to close up again, and the whole thing will just take longer.

I still see no alternative than to go for test & trace first. Everything else seems, honestly, wishful thinking. Ignoring cause and effect.

it is genuinely sad that so much of the conversation is about "OPEN UP THE ECONOMY" "FREEDOM" vs pushing for the infrastructure needed to provide everyone masks, testing capacity, isolation centers, and tracing infrastructure. Musk could've been genuinely useful if he pushed for the latter. But the dude seems convinced the whole thing is a hoax and has gone full r/conspiracy.

Genuinely sad and a reminder of why there are so many excess deaths. lots of undercounts.

Courtney Gross on Twitter

these are the type of people Elon is respecting over experts. Genuinely worried about dudes mental health. ℕℍ on Twitter

Some institutional holders need to get the Board to put a stop to this lunacy.

 

[Norbert]

Musk could've been genuinely useful if he pushed for the latter. But the dude seems convinced the whole thing is a hoax and has gone full r/conspiracy.

Perhaps also disappointed from the efforts of building ventilators. I guess he can't do much about masks or test & trace, so if he can't do anything about something like that, that gets him super annoyed. Just guessing. Plus he likes to solve physical problems, as opposed to biological/medical ones.

 

[MC3OZ]

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...-after-experimental-jabs-20200501-p54ovp.html

Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, said "several hundred" Britons have now been given the experimental jab, with hopes that "signals" about whether it works could emerge by mid-June.

Saying we might have a good idea if a vaccine works by June might be just as wrong as saying it will take years.
Truth is we don't know until we have good evidence, but IMO saying we might have a working vaccine by Christmas is more right than saying it will definitely take years.

We can't pin our hopes on a vaccine until we have one, but if we are going to try to guess a timeline, try to make a balanced guess.

 

[bubb]

I know the company associated with this has a horrible reputation but this still totally shocked me with the speed of transmission in a confined industrial setting: Nearly 900 Test Positive at Tyson Foods Plant

 

[sparcs]

I know the company associated with this has a horrible reputation but this still totally shocked me with the speed of transmission in a confined industrial setting: Nearly 900 Test Positive at Tyson Foods Plant Test Positive

The virus has infected 890 of the 2,200 people in the Logansport plant in less than a week.

That plant seems like it is in the middle of nowhere. Tyson even claimed they were doing a lot of the worker protections that Elon plans to do at Fremont:

“We’ve been screening worker temperatures, requiring protective face coverings and conducting additional cleaning and sanitizing. We’ve also implemented social distancing measures, such as workstation dividers and more breakroom space.”

 

[eevee-fan]

I know the company associated with this has a horrible reputation but this still totally shocked me with the speed of transmission in a confined industrial setting: Nearly 900 Test Positive at Tyson Foods Plant

Ugh... how about USS TR? 5000 people in an industrial environment, about 1000 infected. They think the virus arrived on a supply drop, so definitely less than the 2 weeks they were at sea.

20 days at sea... unsure when the supply drop happened... so time to infect 1000 sailors is less than 20 days.
'Sailors do not need to die': A timeline of coronavirus spread on USS Theodore Roosevelt

 

[azaz]

Poll: Have Elon Musk's COVID-19 shutdown comments affected your opinion of Tesla? - Electrek

42% say Elon's tweets are effecting their view of Tesla negatively. Only 18% positive (which matches up with the polling on lockdowns). It is probably higher for the non-Electrek average public. he's doing real damage.

 

[wdolson]

The part that always worries me are the public restrooms.
From what I can tell, outdoors with a breeze is much better than a busy indoor enclosed location with little air circulation and lots of people touching the same things.

Also I think those "blow dryers" for your hands might throw droplets around the room.
Wash Your Hands—but Beware the Electric Hand Dryer

View attachment 537626

Especially when they look like this

 

[SVMike]

Gardeners are allowed to work in San Diego. Surfing and Hiking are allowed, golf is not, not sure about tennis.

In my area all tennis courts are locked.
Sheriff stopped gardeners at a neighbors housed and told them they were non-essential and to go home