Coronavirus

[MD70]

President Trump praises his own scientific skills: "All these doctors say, 'how do you know so much about this?' Maybe I have a natural ability, maybe I should have done this instead of running for president." Trump says his uncle went to MIT and was a super genius.

Some people think this administration is the best thing since sliced bread.

 

[KSilver2000]

And another quote during his tour of the CDC today:

"Anybody that needs a test gets a test; they're there, they have the tests, and the tests are beautiful.”

I really can’t do this. I feel like I have nausea when listening to him.

 

[deonb]

UW Virology on Twitter

To date,
@UWVirology
has performed approximately 400 tests for #COVIDー19. We are seeing a consistent positivity rate of 5-7% among specimens submitted to the lab. We are able to meet all current testing demands with capacity for over 1,000 tests per day.

​

There is something amiss in the process when UW has extra capacity, but asymptomatic people with known prolonged contact with those with COVID-19 can't get themselves tested.

Even people who are symptomatic but mild are not tested. Unless you actually get admitted to the E.R, you can't realistically get a test done today. I've tried.

Based on the current criteria for testing, the 70 or so cases in WA represents the top 5% of cases making it to the ER (if that). That implies there should be around 1400 milder cases in WA right now. If testing finds 5% positive, we'd have to test 28'000 people in order to track those down - and have to get really lucky about it. Running a 1000 tests per day isn't going to get ahead of it, but we're not even doing that yet.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Does anyone know how extensive is the testing in Italy ? These numbers are sobering (not official, but sounds like a responsible doctor).

50% hospitalized and 9% in ICU.

Dr. Faris Durmo MD., BSc. on Twitter

10 % Lombardy doctors are infected
AT least 1060 self-isolating at home
AT least 2394 hospitalized
AT least 462 intensive care Of 197 at least 49 are ages (62-95 yo)

4636 total cases 197deaths
Death ratio of 4.25 % from 2.5%
Approxim 9% admitted to ICU.​

Not a chance that the Italian case numbers are close to accurate. They must have some 5 times the numbers of cases reported. I live in Norway, and people coming home from Winter holiday in Italy are infected left and right. Not a chance that they all happened to meet one of the 5000 sick in a country of millions. So the "serious case or deadly case" rate, purely objectively and not related to a specific country, is lower than you would infer from these numbers. My guesswork based on published data puts it at 0.1%-0.4%, assuming good treatment options, with those above 60 or with pre-existing conditions at the most risk. (Cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, immunocompromised, diabetes, hypertension). The latter is a scary wildcard for the US, USA has a high incidence of obesity which often comes along with these.

That said, I second that this is likely to impact the macro economy. The testing rate of the US is worse than Italy's, based on the number of dead there so far. The US has much more cases than officially reported, and the number of cases is currently doubling every 4-6 days.

 

[KarenRei]

So, I'm starting to get a bit annoyed with BNO, whose data I use to make my graphs. A number of times I've noticed them inserting new reports not at the top of the list, but "when the data was reported", which mean that they just slot in during the previous day. They not only did this with Iceland yesterday, but over a dozen different other ones (no dramatic changes to the graphs, but still). It's at least as much work going back and trying to find what was new as it is adding them in in the first place. And meanwhile the amount of daily work keeps growing.

I considered writing a script to parse the WHO situation reports. They come in later (yesterday's data from WHO still isn't out yet), but they should be considered complete and authoritative. But not only would I have to spend the time to write and debug it, I'd have to redo all my graph generation stuff. And I'm having trouble finding the 'nenn' to do it. :Þ

I don't know... I'm thinking about maybe terminating updating the graphs.

 

[guidooo]

I don't know... I'm thinking about maybe terminating updating the graphs.

If you do, you might consider looking into COVID19info.live and play with those graphs for trends you wish to see.

I cann't judge the reliability of their data, all i can say is that for the Netherlands it looks up to date and correct as reported in main stream media overhere.

Edit: Maybe not so up to date, for the Netherlands 60 infections should have been added since yesterday.

 

[NicoV]

WHO Director General: “Methane fuelled rockets are dumb”.

Chief Medical Officer: “Dry battery electrodes are dumb”.

Virology Professor: “Lidar free autonomous cars are dumb”

How much respect would we give any of these comments?

Your quotes miss the word ‘panic’, which was crucial in Elon’s tweet.

 

[NicoV]

And another quote during his tour of the CDC today:

"Anybody that needs a test gets a test; they're there, they have the tests, and the tests are beautiful.”

I really can’t do this. I feel like I have nausea when listening to him.

Luckily he is in the highest risk group age wise, AND he meets lots of people.

 

[NicoV]

Not a chance that the Italian case numbers are close to accurate. They must have some 5 times the numbers of cases reported. I live in Norway, and people coming home from Winter holiday in Italy are infected left and right. Not a chance that they all happened to meet one of the 5000 sick in a country of millions. So the "serious case or deadly case" rate, purely objectively and not related to a specific country, is lower than you would infer from these numbers. My guesswork based on published data puts it at 0.1%-0.4%, assuming good treatment options, with those above 60 or with pre-existing conditions at the most risk. (Cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, immunocompromised, diabetes, hypertension). The latter is a scary wildcard for the US, USA has a high incidence of obesity which often comes along with these.

That said, I second that this is likely to impact the macro economy. The testing rate of the US is worse than Italy's, based on the number of dead there so far. The US has much more cases than officially reported, and the number of cases is currently doubling every 4-6 days.

Most of the Belgian cases are people returning from ski holiday in Italy. A week ago it was said that there were no Corona cases in the Italian ski areas, but apparently a lot of ski vacationers got infected anyway. So Corona must have been everywhere in Italy.
The fact that a lot of Belgian ski-travel to France and Italy is by bus doesn’t help, basically you get the same situation as in a cruise ship.

 

[generalenthu]

Luckily he is in the highest risk group age wise, AND he meets lots of people.

All the contestants in the November election are over 75. And all are going to be widely exposed to the public.

 

[PhaseWhite]

There is something amiss in the process when UW has extra capacity, but asymptomatic people with known prolonged contact with those with COVID-19 can't get themselves tested.

Even people who are symptomatic but mild are not tested. Unless you actually get admitted to the E.R, you can't realistically get a test done today. I've tried.

Based on the current criteria for testing, the 70 or so cases in WA represents the top 5% of cases making it to the ER (if that). That implies there should be around 1400 milder cases in WA right now. If testing finds 5% positive, we'd have to test 28'000 people in order to track those down - and have to get really lucky about it. Running a 1000 tests per day isn't going to get ahead of it, but we're not even doing that yet.

Sigh... The stage is being set for it to be much worse in the US than China or South Korea.

 

[Dr. J]

And another quote during his tour of the CDC today:

"Anybody that needs a test gets a test; they're there, they have the tests, and the tests are beautiful.”

You quit listening before the good part. He said the tests are beautiful, just like his call to the Ukranian president. Substitute the correct word for "beautiful" and it's a true statement.

 

[Matias]

By the way Singapore had a big jump in new cases yesterday, 13. Everyone had become quite used to only 2-3 a day.

Two imported (Germany and France), one unknown source and the rest locally transmitted with 9 from a single new cluster.

Out of the 130 confirmed cases, 9 are critical. They are being treated with unspecified anti viral meds.

What I’ve read is that Singapore has been very effective at containing disease transmission. You guys have over 100 mobile units to control the disease. According to what I’ve read you have cut all disease transmissions. With efficient measures it is possible to control the corona.

In Finland we have 19 cases, but no known retransmissions beyond control. People can be ordered to stay at home by law just because they’re exposed and they fill get full compensation for not being allowed to go to work.

We got 130 healthy kids ordered to stay at home, because one kid in school had corona. Those 130 kids parents can stay at home to take care of the healthy child if necessary, and parent gets full compensation for that.

It is possible to get tests done by drive in, if necessary conditions are met.

I think that it is important that people can be ordered to stay at home just because they’re exposed AND that they get full compensation for that. This means that there’s no punishment for reporting about exposure.

 

[deonb]

Sigh... The stage is being set for it to be much worse in the US than China or South Korea.

That die has been cast.

Evergreen Health (which is where most of the US deaths occurred so far), now states that they have stopped testing for COVID-19 on outpatients, because the CDC now classifies this as endemic:
COVID19 Resources | Kirkland, WA | EvergreenHealth

This is not for a lack of available tests, UW have more than enough capacity to meet demand:
UW Virology on Twitter

If the CDC can classify this virus as endemic everywhere, it will avoid wide-spread testing and they get to safe face for botching the first set of tests. And Trump gets to keep his numbers low by only reporting the top 5% of cases back to the WHO.

Of course that means there is no hope anymore for containment.

 

[PhaseWhite]

That die has been cast.

Evergreen Health (which is where most of the US deaths occurred so far), now states that they have stopped testing for COVID-19 on outpatients, because the CDC now classifies this as endemic:
COVID19 Resources | Kirkland, WA | EvergreenHealth

This is not for a lack of available tests, UW have more than enough capacity to meet demand:
UW Virology on Twitter

If the CDC can classify this virus as endemic everywhere, it will avoid wide-spread testing and they get to safe face for botching the first set of tests. And Trump gets to keep his numbers low by only reporting the top 5% of cases back to the WHO.

Of course that means there is no hope anymore for containment.

It will be hard to hide the deaths, as serious cases will all likely end up getting tested. It will then be somewhat trivial to estimate overall infections using data from other countries.

 

[deonb]

It will be hard to hide the deaths, as serious cases will all likely end up getting tested. It will then be somewhat trivial to estimate overall infections using data from other countries.

It's easy with a combination of "U.S. has limited healthcare", "Americans are unhealthy", "People are old and would have died during this time anyway", to justify at least a 6% fatality rate, if not higher, and as a result hide the infection number on the other side.

That means e.g. reporting 700 cases, instead of the more likely 7000. 700 cases won't get travel blocked to your country. 7000 cases does.

 

[Matias]

That die has been cast.

Evergreen Health (which is where most of the US deaths occurred so far), now states that they have stopped testing for COVID-19 on outpatients, because the CDC now classifies this as endemic:
COVID19 Resources | Kirkland, WA | EvergreenHealth

This is not for a lack of available tests, UW have more than enough capacity to meet demand:
UW Virology on Twitter

If the CDC can classify this virus as endemic everywhere, it will avoid wide-spread testing and they get to safe face for botching the first set of tests. And Trump gets to keep his numbers low by only reporting the top 5% of cases back to the WHO.

Of course that means there is no hope anymore for containment.

I don’t understand this (I’m just a humble general practitioner)

“
Can I be tested for COVID-19 at an EvergreenHealth Urgent Care or clinic?
In partnership with the CDC, we have updated our screening guidelines for COVID-19. We have halted performing nasopharyngeal testing in our outpatient clinics, including our urgent care locations.

Here’s why:
The CDC has determined that COVID-19 is now endemic, meaning that the virus is now considered to be regularly found in our region amongst our population. Previously, only individuals who had previously known risk factors (including history of travel, exposure to a confirmed case), were considered high risk for acquiring the disease. There is increased risk of transmission when performing any nasopharyngeal testing.”


Bolded by me. What does that mean? That lab personnel is at risk and tests are not done by that? I’ve never met that argument to not to take a lab test. Of course you need proper shields, but with them, of course you take the necessary tests.

This is the process to take drive in tests in Finland from exposed person with mild symptoms (there’s probably one of those 130 school kids, who were exposed by one child, being tested, parent is bringing child to the test).

 

[Big Earl]

That die has been cast.

Evergreen Health (which is where most of the US deaths occurred so far), now states that they have stopped testing for COVID-19 on outpatients, because the CDC now classifies this as endemic:
COVID19 Resources | Kirkland, WA | EvergreenHealth

This is not for a lack of available tests, UW have more than enough capacity to meet demand:
UW Virology on Twitter

If the CDC can classify this virus as endemic everywhere, it will avoid wide-spread testing and they get to safe face for botching the first set of tests. And Trump gets to keep his numbers low by only reporting the top 5% of cases back to the WHO.

Of course that means there is no hope anymore for containment.

Here’s why:
The CDC has determined that COVID-19 is now endemic, meaning that the virus is now considered to be regularly found in our region amongst our population. Previously, only individuals who had previously known risk factors (including history of travel, exposure to a confirmed case), were considered high risk for acquiring the disease. There is increased risk of transmission when performing any nasopharyngeal testing.”

Bingo. Containment is out the window now.

 

[generalenthu]

This seems to be a good summary of how US botched up testing.

How testing failures allowed coronavirus to sweep the U.S.

 

[traxila]

Bingo. Containment is out the window now.

It feels like thus was always the plan in the USA now. Just let it run it’s course and deny its presence due to lack of testing. Conflate the disease with the seasonal flu. Say it was a bad flu season, which I have heard repeatedly. Trumpet low numbers of coronavirus infections. Shrug if the SHTF and look for someone to blame.

And people claim China is hiding the facts....