Coronavirus

[Thekiwi]

I think many on the investor thread are under estimating the impact the virus will have on the economy. I turned the TV on last night on the Olympic Channel. There was a World Cup Nordic race with completely empty stands. The country in Europe holding the event told the event organizers no fans. The athletes were racing for the cameras only (normally 100,000 fans). The race organizers lost an estimated 1 million dollars. When far fewer people in the US will go to movies, baseball games, festivals, etc. for the next several months, that will affect a lot of people, including small business owners and minimum wage earners. Several airlines may go bankrupt this year from reduced travel. Billions in lost income from decreased tourism. Recession pretty much guaranteed (which means Trump can start packing his bags). A global recession is going to pull TSLA down, no matter how great Q1 and Q2 are, or how impressive battery day turns out to be, which means we are going to miss out on the big pop that was almost guaranteed. The only good news is that we can probably buy more shares under 500 in a couple months. The bad news is that if I had been smart enough to sell half my shares in the 900s, I could have retired. Now I could be working a couple more years.

I agree on the likelihood of a recession, and the fact many on the main investor thread are burying their heads in the sand about it.

 

[EVNow]

The ominous days leading up to the coronavirus outbreak in the Seattle area

In January, firefighters responded seven times to the Life Care facility. In February, and the first five days of March, they responded 33 times.

Firefighters are now grappling with the idea that coronavirus may have already been circulating at Life Care for weeks and that they, and Life Care workers, residents and visitors, had not been warned to take precautions, And that they may have inadvertently helped spread the virus farther.

In the days leading up to last Friday, Life Care staff and first responders were using nebulizers and CPAP machines to treat patients. “We essentially aerosolized it,” one first responder said, because before last Friday, that was standard protocol to treat patients.​

 

[sundaymorning]

Yep. Sold TSLA at $891 and now waiting out this crisis in order to determine when it's best to get back into the stock. Haven't pulled the trigger yet because there are a lot of indications that a majority of people have somehow not yet realized or are just realizing now that this virus will have a big impact on the world economy.

Oh they’ve realized the impact when it dropped from $900 to $609 then the price got too good, so it spiked back up to $900 again then more people realized how bad it was so here we are. You could be right. The stock could drop, or it could remain steady and trade in this range as the company continue to show healthy demand. It could even surprise as people finally stop wasting money on traveling expenses and decide to upgrade their roof or cars. Currently we have Model SX3Y and potential levers in semi and roadster if needed to tap into. Tesla can switch it’s batteries to roofs or energy and balance sales. This company is more versatile than most car companies, we have way less debt than most OEMs and recently raised $2.3 billion for a grand total of $8.8 billion. I’ve lightened you some of my Tesla shares at $830s and intend to hold the rest, I’m also waiting for a buying opportunity should one presents itself. Institutions run by Ron Baron will never sell while you have so many other big buyers who recently pilled in with a 3-5, 5-10 year mindset. Now I’m not saying there’s short term traders, but I doubt Tesla will fumble the ball ar this point, nor will politicians allow a prolonged slowdown without government easing. I wouldn’t under estimate the ability of government intervention during times like these.

 

[EVNow]

Does anyone know how extensive is the testing in Italy ? These numbers are sobering (not official, but sounds like a responsible doctor).

50% hospitalized and 9% in ICU.

Dr. Faris Durmo MD., BSc. on Twitter

10 % Lombardy doctors are infected
AT least 1060 self-isolating at home
AT least 2394 hospitalized
AT least 462 intensive care Of 197 at least 49 are ages (62-95 yo)

4636 total cases 197deaths
Death ratio of 4.25 % from 2.5%
Approxim 9% admitted to ICU.​

 

[Singer3000]

I agree on the likelihood of a recession, and the fact many on the main investor thread are burying their heads in the sand about it.

It’s a shame the main investor thread didn’t stay locked so people there had to come here. But then again no one can say they weren’t warned.

 

[sundaymorning]

I agree on the likelihood of a recession, and the fact many on the main investor thread are burying their heads in the sand about it.

Don’t you know Tesla investors don’t give a damn about recessions? We held through 420, constant media attacks, f@res, crashes, gaffes, cyber truck, production h4ll, etc. There’s not a more stubborn fanbase out there who cares so much about the mission than Tesla investors. If you think I’m kidding, you may need to reread the entire threads back to 2010. And by the way, we know the economy is going to rebound, people will look for ways to pay their bills, as a matter of fact I intend to spend $200k on a big purchase within 12 months regardless of how the economy looks like, and you know why? Because I just have to do it and have been putting it off for the past 3 years. I’m not alone, and there’s plenty of money waiting for buying opportunities.

 

[Singer3000]

This is exactly what I thought when I read that tweet. Pure speculation, maybe, but it's definitely a suspicious tweet if not followed by explanatory tweets or links to articles and the like. It sounds like frustration for whatever reason and it could well be a dip in orders overall or in certain markets.

Q1 orders may be impacted a bit but given the prevalent mood in the most important market of the US is still Denial, it might not be terrible. More negative for Q1 might be that they tend to have an end of quarter delivery rush in Q1. And it may be the delivery logistics will be heavily impacted by the final week or two of March. Particularly so in Europe.

The real hit to demand will probably not come until Q2, as hardly anyone seems to have yet priced this crisis into their own economic future.

I agree that Elon’s tweet came across as petulant. He’s only human and the man has a lot on his plate. Then again it only takes 10 seconds to correct. Just link to the Vietnam “hand washing” pop song and tell everyone to make sure they follow the advice.

 

[EVNow]

There's good reason to suspect that the disease is spreading through the developing world, as discussed earlier. For example, Bhutan had its first case today - a US tourist who had arrived there after two weeks in India - so he clearly got infected in India. Given India's large population and area, it seems highly unlikely that a tourist would have the bad fortune to get infected if India only had the handful of daily cases that they're claiming.

I've no idea how many cases there are locally. Not hearing anything my family (lots of doctors).
​

But, I'd say likely from another tourist. Tourists tend to stay together - and the hotels they stay in might be fertile spreading ground.

 

[Beltsbear]

Does anyone know how extensive is the testing in Italy ? These numbers are sobering (not official, but sounds like a responsible doctor).

50% hospitalized and 9% in ICU.

Dr. Faris Durmo MD., BSc. on Twitter

10 % Lombardy doctors are infected
AT least 1060 self-isolating at home
AT least 2394 hospitalized
AT least 462 intensive care Of 197 at least 49 are ages (62-95 yo)

4636 total cases 197deaths
Death ratio of 4.25 % from 2.5%
Approxim 9% admitted to ICU.​

This is almost certainly from under testing. There are probably 3x as many people who had mild symptoms and did not seek treatment.

 

[Dr. J]

It sounds like frustration for whatever reason and it could well be a dip in orders overall or in certain markets.

This is why this Elon tweet is dumb. It sows suspicion about Tesla.

 

[PhaseWhite]

This is exactly what I thought when I read that tweet. Pure speculation, maybe, but it's definitely a suspicious tweet if not followed by explanatory tweets or links to articles and the like. It sounds like frustration for whatever reason and it could well be a dip in orders overall or in certain markets.

My thought was Elon thinks the sell off in TSLA is dumb because he’s seeing good sales and great execution. I think Q1 will be ok but Q2 could see bigger impacts in consumer behavior changes and possible supply chain issues.

 

[EVNow]

We now have 2 deaths outside WA and CA. In FL.

2 cases of #coronavirus reported in #Florida in #TampaBay. One patient does NOT have a travel history. The 2nd patient traveled to #Italy.​

 

[deffu]

My thought was Elon thinks the sell off in TSLA is dumb because he’s seeing good sales and great execution. I think Q1 will be ok but Q2 could see bigger impacts in consumer behavior changes and possible supply chain issues.

Agree. He is like our president, cares deeply about the stock price. Ppl suspecting dipping orders don’t really understand this nerd. He can only walk in straight lines. We autists all know that.

 

[Causalien]

Elon's comment wasn't "quarantining COVID-19 is dumb". It was about panic being dumb.

And I agree. Panic does nobody any good. You don't have to be a virologist to know that.

I actually look forward to it being declared a pandemic. So that then everyone can stop reporting test results every day about "the spread" (a misleading metric at best of disease spread), and for it to leave the news - even while measures to slow community spread and develop treatments continue. We're getting to the point where a lot of the travel bans are dumb. E.g., what's the point anymore of, say, Switzerland worrying about people visiting from China?

Let's get life back to "normal", with only the adjustments to "normal" being those needed to reduce the rate of community spread. IMHO. Test as widely as you have the tests for, quarantine the infectious and monitor their close contacts, impose strict workplace health measures, etc. But otherwise, let people go about their daily lives.

Add wearing masks to be mandatory.

I don't know why, but people in the western nation has an insane aversion to wearing masks. Look, nobody is going to know who you are when you wear a mask, so stop feeling self conscious when you do wear it.

 

[MikeC]

Elon has been in Austin a lot lately and his tweet was shortly before it was announced that SXSW was cancelled. I bet Elon had advance notice and was just venting his frustration. Maybe he had a GF5 announcement or something planned.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

And for the record, I'm neither letting the disease rule my life, nor throwing caution to the wind. For example, I still plan to go to a concert tonight (there is no gathering ban here... at least yet), where one of my favourite bands will be playing. But I'll also be bringing hand sanitizer and - to the degree possible - standing with my back to other audience members. Then washing well my hands and face afterwards.

It's not about me. It's about trying to not get sick - or if I do, to detect and not transmit it - in order to slow down the spread and protect those who are more vulnerable.

But at the same time, nobody is served if everyone goes into a catatonic panic and bunkers down at home. Some people should, mind you - e.g. if you're immunocompromised, staying home would be wise. But "shutting everything down" does more harm than good.

It's not a choice between A) doing nothing, or B) holeing up as if it's the apocalypse.

For me, I’m not extremely worried, but it’s about the risk-reward ratio. Example: two years ago I went to a symphony concert. The person behind me, who had waited until the LAST POSSIBLE moment to enter before the ushers closed the doors, proceeded to cough through the ENTIRE concert, basically on my head. I was livid. Two days later, the regular flu blossomed in me and I spent the next week in self-quarantine. I ended up missing my next weekend event that was much more important, just so I wouldn’t pass it on. So, now I’m skipping all concerts because the enjoyment of a live performance just isn’t great enough to risk the illness. I’ll listen to a CD or watch YouTube instead. Others can make their own decisions, but I’m not letting some idiot ruin my life this time.

 

[KSilver2000]

For me, I’m not extremely worried, but it’s about the risk-reward ratio. Example: two years ago I went to a symphony concert. The person behind me, who had waited until the LAST POSSIBLE moment to enter before the ushers closed the doors, proceeded to cough through the ENTIRE concert, basically on my head. I was livid. Two days later, the regular flu blossomed in me and I spent the next week in self-quarantine. I ended up missing my next weekend event that was much more important, just so I wouldn’t pass it on. So, now I’m skipping all concerts because the enjoyment of a live performance just isn’t great enough to risk the illness. I’ll listen to a CD or watch YouTube instead. Others can make their own decisions, but I’m not letting some idiot ruin my life this time.

This.
If only people stopped caring only about themselves and prevent putting many others at risk.
I was at Costco today after work and walked by few people who just couldn’t bother themselves, coughing wide open as if they haven’t heard about Cov precautions and acting as if they’re unaware of flu season in general.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Elon's comment wasn't "quarantining COVID-19 is dumb". It was about panic being dumb.

And I agree. Panic does nobody any good. You don't have to be a virologist to know that.

I actually look forward to it being declared a pandemic. So that then everyone can stop reporting test results every day about "the spread" (a misleading metric at best of disease spread), and for it to leave the news - even while measures to slow community spread and develop treatments continue. We're getting to the point where a lot of the travel bans are dumb. E.g., what's the point anymore of, say, Switzerland worrying about people visiting from China?

Let's get life back to "normal", with only the adjustments to "normal" being those needed to reduce the rate of community spread. IMHO. Test as widely as you have the tests for, quarantine the infectious and monitor their close contacts, impose strict workplace health measures, etc. But otherwise, let people go about their daily lives.

I agree that panic is dumb, if he'd written so I wouldn't have anything to say.
But Elon tweeted "coronavirus panic is dumb", which is more specific and many people will interpret it as "quarantine measures are dumb".
I'm becoming sensitive to the matter because I see what's going on in Italy, and I fear many of you will understand what I mean in a few weeks (I hope not, of course). It's not pretty.

IMHO, it's not the moment to write 5-word tweets and expect hundreds million of scared people to assume the right context.
So I think the tweet, in the current infodemic, is a dumb move: not catastrophic, just something that could have been avoided.

 

[Singer3000]

Carl T. Bergstrom on Twitter

While we’re on Elon’s communication mistep, here’s a thread on some brilliant scientific communication to the public

 

[MD70]

Trump on why he wants to leave people on the ship: “I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.” And: “They would like to quarantine people. Now when they do that our numbers are going to go up.”

X number of people will die unnecessarily and the situation will be worse than it could be because of the guy in charge. Also the odds of an economic downturn ate greater thanks to inept handling of the situation by the government.