Coronavirus

[KSilver2000]

I wonder if the White House will have a change of thought regarding Cov after this

A person has tested positive for coronavirus after attending a conservative conference where White House officials were present

 

[eevee-fan]

I wonder if the White House will have a change of thought regarding Cov after this

A person has tested positive for coronavirus after attending a conservative conference where White House officials were present

FAKE NEWS!

So far, Trump has sent Pence out as the stunt double (see CDC signing incident and visit to WA), guess more of the same.

 

[EVNow]

COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates

Care to shut it now? WHO says exactly what I've been saying about Kirkland: it's expected.

“The latest data from China stem from an analysis of nearly 45,000 confirmed cases, and on the whole suggest that the people most likely to develop severe forms of COVID-19 are those with pre‐existing illnesses and the elderly. While less than 1 percent of people who were otherwise healthy died from the disease, the fatality rate for people with cardiovascular disease was 10.5 percent. That figure was 7.3 percent for diabetes patients and around 6 percent for those with chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. While overall, 2.3 percent of known cases [in China] proved fatal—which many experts say is likely an overestimate of the mortality rate, given that many mild cases might go undiagnosed—patients 80 years or older were most at risk, with 14.8 percent of them dying.”

Actually I expect you to apologize.

Because that post to which you replied assumed a fatality rate of 0.5%.

Your claim is Covid is like Flu - which has a fatality rate of much lesser than 0.5%. You have the burden of proof that what you said is correct.

 

[linux-works]

what other little things will change- lets see, I can choose to wear my soft contacts (daily, disposable) or eyeglasses. guess which one, now, won't get used while out in public? (contacts have an expiration date, too, since they're in solution when stored; but I now feel safer with glasses than aqueous soft contacts. talk about 'dont touch your eyes' - contacts are now a no-no for me, in public.)

 

[ohmman]

The Princess Cruise ship that was in Japan for like 3 weeks under quarantine. That was a more realistic, cross-section of the population.

Death rate: 0.7%.

R0 appears to be higher for COVID-19, though, right?

 

[bkp_duke]

Actually I expect you to apologize.

Because that post to which you replied assumed a fatality rate of 0.5%.

Your claim is Covid is like Flu - which has a fatality rate of much lesser than 0.5%. You have the burden of proof that what you said is correct.

I will acquiesce - I think your numbers are overblown, because even in China there are likely 10s of thousands of very mild cases which are not diagnosed (i.e. the denominator is wrong in all the CFR data to date). And testing population-wide is a pointless expense just to get this data. Not when we know the at risk populations and those are the one that should be under surveillance.

 

[linux-works]

yow! wonder what everyone ate, last nite??

(doubt it was the lobster)

but hey, look, on the bright side - looks like the tire center (oops, I mean tyre centre) is not busy right now!

 

[bkp_duke]

R0 appears to be higher for COVID-19, though, right?

That is under debate, even by the WHO right now:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Page 12:
"The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult."

And R0 is just one measure, important for spread. WHO points this out:
"Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission."

The above is very advantageous for fighting off COVID-19. It means if you graphed out the % of R0 in COVID-19 vs. Influenza which are from the pre-symptomatic phase, Influenza is higher. You literally have the opportunity to "flatten the curve" as @EVNow likes to say simply by telling people to self-isolate at the first sign of symptoms. You don't get that much of a chance with Influenza.

 

[KSilver2000]

yow! wonder what everyone ate, last nite??

(doubt it was the lobster)

View attachment 519305

At least the Costco in my region are limiting everything to 2 per membership.

 

[linux-works]

another attempt to look on the bright side: this shows how weak our supply chain really is and so much comes from china. china is stalled right now, for all practical purposes, and so what's in the queue is what's there - then its dry for a long time.

maybe the US will consider moving some essential (note the word) manufacturing back here.

a responsible government would.

I'll stop there.

 

[ohmman]

That is under debate, even by the WHO right now:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Page 12:
"The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult."

And R0 is just one measure, important for spread. WHO points this out:
"Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission."

The above is very advantageous for fighting off COVID-19. It means if you graphed out the % of R0 in COVID-19 vs. Influenza which are from the pre-symptomatic phase, Influenza is higher. You literally have the opportunity to "flatten the curve" as @EVNow likes to say simply by telling people to self-isolate at the first sign of symptoms. You don't get that much of a chance with Influenza.

Thanks. That secondary section is encouraging, though I think we know that self-isolation is not terribly effective. This isn't my area of expertise, so I appreciate reading whatever people post here. I am learning a lot I didn't know before, which is always good. My perspective is that it's still much worse than the flu, though, when one takes contagiousness and death rate into account. I certainly don't see it wiping out the population, but if the flu kills ~650k worldwide annually, I'd hate to see a new seasonal virus that even matches that, let alone exceeds it.

 

[linux-works]

ohmman: resistance is .. well .. futile.

so they say.

 

[ohmman]

ohmman: resistance is .. well .. futile.

so they say.

That used to be my signature here...

 

[bkp_duke]

ohmman: resistance is .. well .. futile.

so they say.

Ah, the Borg . . . a man after my own heart.


@ohmman - time is going to tell on this one. COVID-19 isn't the first coronavirus we've encountered. They are usually pretty mild and just cause symptoms consistent with the common cold. This one is odd - it's no so virulent that it burns itself out like the big baddies SARS and MERS.

Best possible hope is for a vaccine. Nothing is as effective as herd immunity if we can inoculate enough people.

 

[linux-works]

Doubling of deaths every 6 days
Date Number of deaths
March 7 19
March 13 38
March 19 76
March 25 152
March 31 304
April 6 608
April 12 1,216
April 18 2,432
April 24 4,864
April 30 9,728
May 6 19,456
May 12 38,912
May 18 77,824
May 24 155,648
May 30 311,296
June 5 622,592
June 11 1,245,184
June 17 2,490,368

Coronavirus doubling of deaths every x days
U.S. tracker:
COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Update in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres

 

[dl003]

Doubling of deaths every 6 days
Date Number of deaths
March 7 19
March 13 38
March 19 76
March 25 152
March 31 304
April 6 608
April 12 1,216
April 18 2,432
April 24 4,864
April 30 9,728
May 6 19,456
May 12 38,912
May 18 77,824
May 24 155,648
May 30 311,296
June 5 622,592
June 11 1,245,184
June 17 2,490,368

Coronavirus doubling of deaths every x days
U.S. tracker:
COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Update in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres

We'll all be dead by September. Sell your stonks!!!

 

[linux-works]

at airports, the workers that interact with the public are in fear, since they are lacking masks (if they have any, they bought them themselves).

I wonder, now: the TSA is universally hated for all the 'touching' and stuff they do (very invasive and demeaning). wonder if they now think twice about touching and fondling passengers? wonder if we can finally get rid of this useless org, even if we had to invoke 'public safety' rather than freedom, to get it.

I don't want to get touched - gloved or not (!) - by some TSA or security person.

risk of getting a bomb attack vs getting a bio one from TSA.

lets think about THAT for a bit.


I really do hope some things that are VERY wrong with our society get re-thought and changed.

imagine that.

 

[goinfraftw]

yow! wonder what everyone ate, last nite??

(doubt it was the lobster)

View attachment 519305


but hey, look, on the bright side - looks like the tire center (oops, I mean tyre centre) is not busy right now!

Worrisome...

Brian Davis on Twitter

 

[linux-works]

...and you thought soccer moms were aggressive on xmas eve, when there's only one of the must-have ${TOY} left on the shelf and the store's about to close.

 

[AZRI11]

Covid-19 isn't in the same league yet to this killer Beijing Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index