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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
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Singer3000
Member
Liz Specht on Twitter
Good thread on peak case modelling and the burden on the healthcare system and medical supplies.
And as a minor note, take note defenders of Elon Dumb Tweet: “Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency”.
Our guy has now had 24 hours to show he understands the importance of not muddying the distinction between the two in the minds of the public. For reasons that at this point I find inexplicable and inexcusable, he has still not done so.
Good thread on peak case modelling and the burden on the healthcare system and medical supplies.
And as a minor note, take note defenders of Elon Dumb Tweet: “Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency”.
Our guy has now had 24 hours to show he understands the importance of not muddying the distinction between the two in the minds of the public. For reasons that at this point I find inexplicable and inexcusable, he has still not done so.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Why are you still comparing just to flu ?
Look at the numbers from life center. Why is it so much more than normal flu season ?
If you have any papers or solid data that says the covid19 numbers are just like flu, I'd like to see the link.
Singer3000
Member
No they did not. But the external oxygenation of blood outside the body sounds like it will be very hard to replicate at scale, with quite obvious supply constraints on the necessary equipment.
Stock up on seafood! I did see a sale today on frozen sea food. This explains it.
Virus Makes Lobsters So Cheap That Sellers Face a Fatal Blow
Virus Makes Lobsters So Cheap That Sellers Face a Fatal Blow
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
LifeCenter (ironic name) is about the worst possible set of factors you could put together. Elderly, already sick (that's what acute care means).
You accuse me of cherry picking, you also need a FAR better source.
linux-works
Active Member
yeah? what good is all the lobster in the world ... if you can't buy any butter!
(checks amazon)
whew. ok, carry on.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
That's called ECMO, and it's GOD AWEFUL expensive. Only the best of top-tier Trauma centers do it, and they usually only have the equipment to do it for 1-3 patients per hospital. It comes with all kinds of complications as well.
N5329K
Active Member
plumazul
Member
LifeCare info sheet already said they normally get under 10 deaths a month and it's much higher now. Any questions?
linux-works
Active Member
no more restaurant buffets for a WHILE, methinks. movie attendance: lets skip that, perhaps. sitting neck to neck in rows of office desks? that's gotta change, too. (heh - if we can dump the 'open office' concept and go back to divided cubes, that will at least help a bit.)
lots of little things in life are going to change. I hope that universal healthcare will come out of this; we really are learning an expensive lesson in more ways than one.
lots of little things in life are going to change. I hope that universal healthcare will come out of this; we really are learning an expensive lesson in more ways than one.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Which one of us is a board-certified physician?
NONE of the LifeCare data surprises me in the least. We already know that the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is about 1.5-2% world wide. Why are you guys cherry picking the worst of the worst?
A respiratory pathogen hits an old-person's acute care facility and causes deaths . . . where is the surprise?
My observation: 2 weeks ago Iran's mortality rate topped 11%. I said: Iran's cases will explode and surely it did. The 2-3% mortality rate dictated that they had many many cases already undetected. With the US only reporting 19, 13 of those in the same acute care facility, I'm going to go out on a limb and say there're still hope for us, not because of how many cases we found (over 400 now), but because of how few have died.
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This.
We haven’t eaten at any place that has a customer self-serve section since.
And I feel lucky that all my places of work so far have not had the “open office” concept. I would hate it deeply. (Well, as long as it’s not me in the open, hah)
BTW, a friend wanted to buy a thermometer. Of course those are all sold out everywhere, too, in B&M and online. I just bought a handheld portable bidet JUST in case you can’t even buy paper from price gougers.
Speaking of price gouging. America should follow Korea with some of these necessary supplies. For example, masks in Korea are now controlled by the government. Only 2 masks are allowed per person per week from government designated spots such as the post office. Any reseller cannot sell for much more than the government’s price. First report of an illegal price gouger is given a reward.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Even with LifeCenter (ironic name indeed - just like CleanAir act) - clearly shows this is far more dangerous than any "normal flu".
You have had ZERO sources, btw, for your claims. I ask again - you made a claim - show me the data or withdraw the claim.
The play seems to be
- Don't test
- Down play all fatality rates because not enough people have been tested
linux-works
Active Member
I'm reminded of an interview I had, not too long ago, where there were desks arranged bench-style, end to end, no gaps at all, no dividers, in rows, filling the room.
thought I was looking at a turn-of-the-century (not this century!) mill or factory. but in fact, it was a hardware/software company here in silicon valley.
there are studies about the open-office concept and how broken it is (how it does not work). people get more colds and flus.
so again, I wonder if our job crea^Hcorporate masters will reconsider giving their serfs a bit more space and *maybe* a divider that is more functional than just-for-show. wonder if that will happen.
(ah, who am I kidding.)
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
COVID-19 Deaths and Incredible WHO Estimates
Care to shut it now? WHO says exactly what I've been saying about Kirkland: it's expected.
“The latest data from China stem from an analysis of nearly 45,000 confirmed cases, and on the whole suggest that the people most likely to develop severe forms of COVID-19 are those with pre‐existing illnesses and the elderly. While less than 1 percent of people who were otherwise healthy died from the disease, the fatality rate for people with cardiovascular disease was 10.5 percent. That figure was 7.3 percent for diabetes patients and around 6 percent for those with chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. While overall, 2.3 percent of known cases [in China] proved fatal—which many experts say is likely an overestimate of the mortality rate, given that many mild cases might go undiagnosed—patients 80 years or older were most at risk, with 14.8 percent of them dying.”
EDIT - so let's do some simple math here.
80 and up - risk factor increased to 14.8%. For simplicity lets say you have heart disease, add another 10.5% Heaven help if you have heart disease AND diabetes (like so much of our elderly population) because that is going to add another 7.3%. For that category patient (an 80+ year old with diabetes and heart disease - they do go hand in hand), that's a 32.6% mortality rate. Pretty much what we are seeing.
Under 80, no diabetes, no heart disease - the WHO is quoting about 1%. That's worse than the flu, which seasonally is about 0.1-0.2%, but it would not give us 480,000 deaths like your previous post assumed. More like. . . . 50,000 to 100,000. Worse than the seasonal flu, but not TWENTY FIVE TIMES worse like you are fearmongering.
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