Coronavirus

[eevee-fan]

confirmed by, well, some rando website:

Tito’s: Please Stop Using Our Vodka to Make Hand Sanitizer

"No Officer, I have not been drinking..."

 

[EVNow]

Letter from Life Care center.

 

[Big Earl]

Time to make a run on the liquor stores that sell Everclear, Bacardi 151 and other high proof spirits.

 

[linux-works]

"No Officer, I have not been drinking..."

Ossifer. its spelled 'officer' but prounced quite differently.

get it right. practice now, so you'll be ready.

 

[BornToFly]

If the above is correct - we need
1,900,000 - ICU
100,000 - total ICU beds
61,000 - total ventilators.

About 50% are generally occupied already.

We need to really stretch out the outbreak to have any chance of dealing with Covid19.

FrapNDerp on Twitter

Yep. Huge problem. I work at a busy level 1 Trauma center. On any given day most ICU beds are full. I have no idea how we would handle more than a few Covid19 cases that require ICU care....

 

[linux-works]

another idea for face masks, DIY style (red circle in photo).

supply chain should be ok for these, I think: stocks are rather firm and well-supported. its a bargain, too, since two come in one package. many colors and styles available, so you are free to make the fashion statement you want.

 

[Shock-On-T]

"Stopping testing" seems to be taking it too far. If someone has the disease, surely they should know about it, as should the people they've been exposed to. My mother, for example, has chronic lymphoma and is also immunosuppressed to treat an antibody-related condition. If my father gets the disease, for example, he really needs to know, with respect to keeping my mother safe.

But I agree that it seems to have gone too far, and surely they're going to have to declare it a pandemic sooner or later and switch to a focus on reducing community spread rather than preventing it from getting into countries / regions. I mean... Italy has had it for months, and we're only just now starting to check passengers? Planes full of people from all over Europe have been visiting northern Italy all winter; it's a popular vacation spot. Clearly it's everywhere, at least at some low level.

And then think of the developing world! An example from today: a traveler from the US was diagnosed with the disease in Bhutan - Bhutan's first case. Fair enough. Except that he didn't go straight from the US - he had spent the past two weeks traveling around India. So he caught it in India. There's increasing evidence that India has a large number of undiagnosed cases out there, and they're barely getting started on trying to find them.

Sorry I should clarify: we will still be testing people who present to emergency with covid symptoms (fever and cough), but there won’t be any more community testing in an attempt to pre-emptively quarantine carriers.

 

[EVNow]

Regarding the tweets floating around that assert that prediction is from the AHA, I submit to you the following:

“The AHA regularly hosts webinars and conference calls that include a variety of voices and opinions that seek to provide relevant information to professionals at hospitals and health systems that are on the front lines of preparing for and protecting their patients and communities,” said an AHA spokeswoman to Business Insider. “The slides you shared reflect the various perspectives of field experts and should not be attributed to the AHA.”

Expert told American Hospital Association to brace for up to ’96 million’ coronavirus cases: leaked report

Yes - this was presented at AHA webinar. So does not necessarily reflect their management view.

Were there any other presentations on the same issue ? I'd like to see what various experts think (backing it up with their reputation).

My perspective is BI whores for attention. Their job is to find numbers that fit their narrative.
I work for a hospital. For every problem, we have 2 sides: one wants to resolve it in the most efficient way possible, the other wants to be *safe rather than sorry*. In healthcare lingo, that's short for "we're going to cover our ass regardless of how much it costs and how much unnecessary work it creates". I have no doubt someone in the latter camp actually came up with these numbers but it's far from predictive of the future. Have nothing to do with politics. In fact, someone from the Trump camp would actually try to understate the impact.

Anything to backup that assertion ?

 

[JRP3]

wish it would work, but its 40%, typically, nyet?

Everclear

 

[dl003]

Yes - this was presented at AHA webinar. So does not necessarily reflect their management view.

Were there any other presentations on the same issue ? I'd like to see what various experts think (backing it up with their reputation).


Anything to backup that assertion ?

Well by logic if that's the worst or close to worst prediction available, it must have been made by someone either pessimistic in nature or intending to prepare for worst case scenario. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[linux-works]

quick, the price dropped!

its now on sale! yippee!!

(sigh)

 

[Singer3000]

For those hoping that the high mortality rate is a function of statistical gaps, read this from WHO assistant DG. He says this is likely not the case. And while Wuhan had a high CFR due to chaos, the low CFR in the rest of China was because of high tech treatment that will not likely be available in many places.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china

China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why.
“More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that.”

 

[linux-works]

one more gouging report, this from a price watcher engine (camelcamelcamel - used to be a good one before they crashed and lost ALL their hard disks, wow, what a loss):

 

[dl003]

quick, the price dropped!

View attachment 519285

its now on sale! yippee!!

(sigh)

Somebody get Chanos and Spiegel. Quick.

 

[dl003]

For those hoping that the high mortality rate is a function of statistical gaps, read this from WHO assistant DG. He says this is likely not the case. And while Wuhan had a high CFR due to chaos, the low CFR in the rest of China was because of high tech treatment that will not likely be available in many places.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china
China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why.

China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why.
“More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that.”

China did not come up with any alien technology to treat Coronavirus in 1 month. I assure you that. They publicized what they found to be effective against it. These drugs are extremely common in the US.
China optimises treatment for COVID-19

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Italy poised to lock down Lombardy after coronavirus jump

It looks like one quarter of all 60 million Italians will be in lock down until April 3.

 

[bkp_duke]

No particular reason to think they are totally making this up. Besides, the numbers are not even conservative.

Those numbers are 25 time the annual influenza death toll in the US. I would not put them remotely close to a "conservative" estimate. 25-50,000 deaths would be conservative. 480,000 is not.

 

[generalenthu]

For those hoping that the high mortality rate is a function of statistical gaps, read this from WHO assistant DG. He says this is likely not the case. And while Wuhan had a high CFR due to chaos, the low CFR in the rest of China was because of high tech treatment that will not likely be available in many places.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china
China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why.

China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why.
“More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.

In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that.”

After reading about the ventilator tech China used to keep a lid on mortality, I am unsure US can do that. I mean the way US went about testing doesn't inspire much confidence

 

[KSilver2000]

Yesterday Whole Foods has hand sanitizer outside and in a couple of place throughout the store (a week ago it was just outside). I was surprised they weren't empty.

Maybe because it was outside of a Whole Foods.

 

[bkp_duke]

China did not come up with any alien technology to treat Coronavirus in 1 month. I assure you that. They publicized what they found to be effective against it. These drugs are extremely common in the US.
China optimises treatment for COVID-19

Anything xxxmab you can cross off the list as a viable treatment. MAB = antibody = biologic = difficult to make and expensive.

EDIT - point being it could not be deployed en masse to make any statistical difference