Coronavirus

[dqd88]

Anyone else here amused that the random guy on a car forum is giving the MD with nearly a decade of work in a METABOLISM lab a lecture?




FWIW, you actually aren't too far off on what a "good" diet is. The food pyramid is not really that bad (the original version, that is composed of actual fruits, veggies, and grains), it's the processing of most foods that really makes them crap for our bodies. Complex carbs are really not that bad for you, but when you process them in to cane sugar (bad) or fructose (SUPER bad) then you completely change the fuel.

Same thing with fats. Most medium chain fats are healthy for the human body. But partially hydrogenated oils / fats are as bad as you can get for the human body. Those bad boys put even high fructose corn syrup to shame in terms of the amount of damage they wreak on our blood vessels.


Anyway, last reply by me on this subject. You seem to want to split hairs to try to find something to argue about and this is getting further afield from SARS-CoV-2.

Doctors get very little nutrition schooling.
My kid's mom is a doc. She had a shockingly bad diet.
I've always been into nutrition.
She told me that avocadoes were bad for you. Meanwhile her cupboards were packed with processed foods. She ate what I'd consider a "trailor park" diet - lots of potato chips, ice cream, fries. Dating her, I gained weight and got cavities. After breaking up I regained my health.

Yeah, a doctor (a radiologist for a large hospital system). Doctors are weak on nutrition. It's not their thing. Their job isn't to prevent illness, it's to diagnose and treat illness. Literally. They don't get paid to prevent illness and to ensure people eat healthy. Their overall framework for health is that modern medicine essentially is the fix for whatever consequences arise from lifestyle.

Metabolism is a different subject.

 

[SVMike]

Why am I sitting here at the beginning of phase 2 / end of phase 1 with less restrictions in place after looking at more new cases than we had at the beginning of phase 1 with more restrictions? How high do new cases have to go before they pull back from phase 2 and lock it down again?

Do you honestly think that "number of cases" has been a reliable stable metric over the period of your graph?
Hospitalizations or deaths might be more accurate (although deaths has a few weeks delay)

Mike

 

[SVMike]

But you and I live in CA. Does that mean we are OK with them taking . . . 50-55%? Asking for a friend.

No. But I think you are talking about the marginal rate not the overall rate of federal + state + maybe sales and property

 

[SVMike]

That's pretty silly, the worst country takes about 50% and many take less.

Did you read the original question a few pages back? There was a wide range of possible tax rates as choices.

In any case:
US federal: 37%
CA state: 12.3%
CA state and local sales: ~10% (amount depends on purchases made)
Property tax: 1% depending on high home prices in CA (prop 13 limits increases so new sales are at the max
Property tax extras: I think up to .25% for local fees can be added
CA gas tax: $0.47/gal before sales tax is added

It is pretty easy to see lots of people in CA exceeding 50% at least on marginal earnings.

 

[blckdmp]

Doctors get very little nutrition schooling.
My kid's mom is a doc. She had a shockingly bad diet.
I've always been into nutrition.
She told me that avocadoes were bad for you. Meanwhile her cupboards were packed with processed foods. She ate what I'd consider a "trailor park" diet - lots of potato chips, ice cream, fries. Dating her, I gained weight and got cavities. After breaking up I regained my health.

Yeah, a doctor (a radiologist for a large hospital system). Doctors are weak on nutrition. It's not their thing. Their job isn't to prevent illness, it's to diagnose and treat illness. Literally. They don't get paid to prevent illness and to ensure people eat healthy. Their overall framework for health is that modern medicine essentially is the fix for whatever consequences arise from lifestyle.

Metabolism is a different subject.

I think it's fair to say that you're hopelessly out of your weight class here my friend. I'd say a rough tally on useful information provided in this thread leaves bkp_duke ahead of you about a trillion to one (with the one being hypothetical).

 

[dqd88]

I think it's fair to say that you're hopelessly out of your weight class here my friend. I'd say a rough tally on useful information provided in this thread leaves bkp_duke ahead of you about a trillion to one (with the one being hypothetical).

I think it's fair to say you're wrong.
You probably also think Elon is out of his weight class when he debates a PhD in rocket science. And you'd be wrong there too.
Your response shows me that you also know very little about human nutrition.

 

[JRP3]

A look at some of the people who predicted this and were largely ignored.

 

[bkp_duke]

I think it's fair to say you're wrong.
You probably also think Elon is out of his weight class when he debates a PhD in rocket science. And you'd be wrong there too.
You're response shows me that you also know very little about human nutrition.

Hahahahaha

As an MD treating diabetes I had multiple nutritionists that worked under me and reported to me. But I guess I knew nothing. I'm sure you have first hand knowledge of how much actual training an endocrinologist gets in nutrition, and how much additional training one with a PhD in molecular biology studying metabolism must have, right?

Please continue, I'm going to get some popcorn while we watch how much further you can put your foot in your mouth.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Rational responses and restrictions for coronavirus continue to be eased in, in San Diego County, starting June 2nd:

Do
- Sitting on beach allowed for sunbathing and relaxing with towels and chairs with your household unit

Don’t
- No activities such as football, volleyball allowed - Parking lots still closed
- Piers still closed

Communities agreed OK start June 2.
Up to each to confirm they want to proceed.


Seems all very reasonable and safe to me, and unlikely to drive case growth. Seems like it may be a reasonable time to go to the beach, since the parking lots being closed should keep the crowds somewhat reduced. Hopefully everyone will respect the restrictions and continue to act to stop the spread. I do wish they'd close the public restrooms, but understand why they don't. Perhaps they have special measures in place to do extra cleaning & sanitation (they're normally a place I try to avoid, anyway...)?

(As usual, masks continue to be required in San Diego County when you may unavoidably be within 6 feet of another person - so I expect all people to be carrying masks at the beach, but not wearing them.)

Our issue in San Diego County continues to be focused on the southern cities with lower incomes (unable to social distance/essential, etc.), and additionally my understanding is there a fair amount of repatriation of very ill US citizens taking place at the southern border crossings (a few people have collapsed when crossing the border I guess), as Mexico is getting hit pretty hard. (They appear to be doing extremely little testing, with a test-to-death ratio of just 27 , which is absolutely awful! They are undergoing not-quite-exponential case & death growth as a result. Should be a massive humanitarian disaster in a couple weeks, in Mexico.) I assume those cases are getting added to our totals, but I have not listened to the daily briefings to understand the details.

We seem to have bottomed out at about 3% positive rate, but it would definitely be good to see that get below 1-2% consistently.

 

[madodel]

Hahahahaha

As an MD treating diabetes I had multiple nutritionists that worked under me and reported to me. But I guess I knew nothing. I'm sure you have first hand knowledge of how much actual training an endocrinologist gets in nutrition, and how much additional training one with a PhD in molecular biology studying metabolism must have, right?

Please continue, I'm going to get some popcorn while we watch how much further you can put your foot in your mouth.

View attachment 545803

Many doctors and nurses have bad eating habits because of weird schedules, high stress and being used to eating processed crap out of machines or fast food. I've known obese doctors who smoked, but that was decades ago. Same for nurses, but there are far fewer now than in the past as they are educated in what is healthy. Not everyone that is educated will do what they were taught or what is best (looks in the mirror). But most I know now are generally in fairly decent shape.

My wife spends a large chunk of her day telling people what they need to eat and that they need to exercise and she does not pull punches. She walks the talk and tells people that if they want to reverse their cardiac disease just taking pills isn't going to cut it. I'm an overweight vegetarian because while I eat no meat, or drink milk, I can't give up chocolate, cake (especially chocolate cake) or pasta, but my wife eats almost no processed carbs or other foods, and no red meat, and she exercises everyday. No added salt, no butter, no transfats (unless they are tucked in some cake, but for me only). Believe me I hear about all this everyday. And our kids are pretty healthy eaters who don't overeat, and only one is in medical school. Everything in moderation.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Administration is apparently making the CDC remove the warnings about choirs and singing in churches, and also removing the warnings about sharing cups in communion/eucharist ceremonies.

Odd. Their prior guidance simply said to "consider" discontinuing these activities if it was "consistent" within the faith traditions.

Apparently that was too strong a statement.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...9c526e-a117-11ea-9590-1858a893bd59_story.html

I mean, it is a tricky issue to communicate to the devout, and of course there's no reason to explicitly prohibit these things (I believe that common sense will prevail if clear information about the risks is provided), but it seems like stating the facts and the science would be helpful in allowing people to make good decisions. Removing that information entirely...seems bad.

High SARS-CoV-2 Attack Rate Following Exposure at a Choir Practice ...

Oh well. Seems like the administration is relying strongly on the test & trace strategy, which they are also not leading on.

Really gives new meaning to "leading from behind."

Will be interesting to see how this works out, I guess. Personally, I'm really hoping that warm weather saves us - it's my last hope. It's so close on the testing front - I think those tests really are starting to have an impact on Rt - the question is whether they can offset the impacts of re-opening (and singing in the choirs, apparently).

So glad my parents are rational and have no plans to attend church in person for the foreseeable future.

 

[cusetownusa]

If you extrapolate New York City's actual deaths, including above-average deaths, to the US, you get more than 1 million deaths, and NYC is still far from herd immunity. So the potential of danger is on the scale of the sum of the numbers you posted here. At least for cities.

why would you assume the rest of the US is the same as NYC? Seems like a faulty assumption to draw any conclusions from.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

why would you assume the rest of the US is the same as NYC? Seems like a faulty assumption to draw any conclusions from.

Can you propose some ways in which NYC would be significantly different? I believe the demographic pyramid is quite similar between NY and the rest of the US, and that seems like it would be the main determinant of IFR.

To me it seems like the main thing that would be different would be the speed of spread and Rt, but that wouldn't affect the IFR, unless the hospitals were overwhelmed (they weren't).

I've heard a lot of people claiming NYC can't possibly be representative, but I'm looking for good reasons why it wouldn't be. The most recent "reason" I have heard is how they were stuffing sick people into nursing homes, and that drove up their IFR. But those types of deaths (care facilities) only make up 1/4 of the total deaths as I recall, and the actual additional number caused by poor policies would clearly be a smaller fraction than that. So I don't see that as being a particularly significant factor.

To me it seems like quite a good dataset to extrapolate from - and it's one of the only ones we have, due to the serology testing and high incidence (which makes the serology testing more reliable).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

A look at some of the people who predicted this and were largely ignored.

In the US at the beginning you had your choice of two types people. A POTUS in absolute denial or a whole bunch of people dead certain a million dead Americans was unavoidable and 2M+ very possible.

 

[Daniel in SD]

There was a covid-19 Q&A session in Los Angeles today that included one of the lead researchers on the LA antibody study.

The protocol is different from the Stanford study -- they sought to randomly select subjects from a third-party database, and then imposed quotas based on sex, age and race/ethnicity.

At about 18:20 on the video linked below there is a discussion of the test
At about 29:00 there is a discussion of how they recruited test subjects

There are other discussions sprinkled throughout the Q&A.

Los Angeles County on Twitter

BIAS WARNING: I do not think 4.1% of Angelenos have had COVID-19.

Dr. Neeraj Sood did another antibody survey and got 2.1% this time. The specificity of the Chinese tests is improving! Or maybe Dr. Jay Bhattacharya wasn't involved this time.
LA County 'Still Far Away From Herd Immunity,' New Antibody Numbers Show

 

[jhm]

Time for a new update. Over the last week, ultimate (wave 1) projections have crept up a little bit, 2,159k cases an 134k deaths. To be sure, the creep upward is due to this last week's cases and deaths coming in a little higher than projected. So the good news is that cases and deaths are coming down, even if not as quickly as the last fitting of the model. It is certainly possible that relaxing stay-at-home practices are slowing progress toward shutting down the spread.

View attachment 543760View attachment 543761



View attachment 543762

Weekly update. Deaths have continued in line with projections. Ultimate projections have changed little since last week, 2,389k cases up from 2,159k and 134k deaths no change from prior week. Maybe it is not bad if more cases are confirmed without an increase in deaths. OTOH, maybe there is just a lag, and we'll see deaths come in higher than projected next week. We'll see.

 

[FreshPrince]

Can you propose some ways in which NYC would be significantly different? I believe the demographic pyramid is quite similar between NY and the rest of the US, and that seems like it would be the main determinant of IFR.

To me it seems like the main thing that would be different would be the speed of spread and Rt, but that wouldn't affect the IFR, unless the hospitals were overwhelmed (they weren't).

I've heard a lot of people claiming NYC can't possibly be representative, but I'm looking for good reasons why it wouldn't be. The most recent "reason" I have heard is how they were stuffing sick people into nursing homes, and that drove up their IFR. But those types of deaths (care facilities) only make up 1/4 of the total deaths as I recall, and the actual additional number caused by poor policies would clearly be a smaller fraction than that. So I don't see that as being a particularly significant factor.

To me it seems like quite a good dataset to extrapolate from - and it's one of the only ones we have, due to the serology testing and high incidence (which makes the serology testing more reliable).

From what I find NY is quite different:

1 High population density
List of United States cities by population density - Wikipedia



2. Commuting more:

Transportation and Health Indicators
Transportation and Health Indicators

New York’s system was still the country’s largest by far. Its daily subway and bus ridership of nearly 8 million dwarfs Los Angeles’s 1.2 million riders.

Why the West Coast Is Suddenly Beating the East Coast on Transportation

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

From what I find NY is quite different:

1 Population density
List of United States cities by population density - Wikipedia

2. Commuting even more than California:

Transportation and Health Indicators
Transportation and Health Indicators



Why the West Coast Is Suddenly Beating the East Coast on Transportation

Yeah, not sure why you disagreed with my post - this is exactly what I said!!! But these things should have nothing to do with mortality after infection, right (as I said)?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

POTUS in absolute denial or a whole bunch of people dead certain a million dead Americans was unavoidable and 2M+ very possible.

What are you talking about? A huge number of people here and elsewhere thought extremely low numbers of deaths (less than a few thousand) were possible in the US, and said so. And they were right, as is plain from the worldwide picture. Unfortunately we did not follow that plan.

It was always understood that 2 million represented a theoretical unmitigated epidemic (unmitigated epidemics of that severity do not likely occur, even if the government takes no action, because people take action (eventually) instead).

 

[FreshPrince]

Yeah, not sure why you disagreed with my post - this is exactly what I said!!! But these things should have nothing to do with mortality after infection, right (as I said)?

More people infected, more chances for virus to make someone dead. Serology tests in NYC show ~25% people in NYC have coronavirus antibodies.