Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Things are looking better than I thought in Alameda County. Finally found their test data on their second dashboard. The positivity is going down, and hospitalizations are trending down, so that is good. They might just be able to get a handle on it as things reopen again, and increased testing makes it more likely that people who are at risk of being infected won't walk into the Tesla factory.

Source: http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov.aspx

Hopefully people are good about wearing their masks & eye shields.

 

[N5329K]

Why arguing over mortality rates may be beside the point:
So How Deadly Is COVID-19?

Robin

 

[TEG]

Why arguing over mortality rates may be beside the point:
So How Deadly Is COVID-19?
Robin

Random, but this advertisement showed for me while I was reading that article:

SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV) Antibodies
SARS-Cov-2 (2019-nCoV) Antigen Reagents

I am not sure if they offer anything useful, but it looked intriguing, and I thought some of the other participants here might be interested.

 

[Dr. J]

Oh, stop it already. You’re no more concerned about what Elon thinks on this topic as I am what you think about my current diet and exercise choices.

If you really were half as concerned as you claim, you’d have packed up your all your Tesla and TSLA related toys and left the forum. Yes. That’s what reasonable, intelligent people do when they’re actually concerned. They cut ties and move the eff on.

I don’t believe ANYONE about ANYTHING, if and until they’ve proven to moi that they actually have a clue. Case in point - the expert economists didn’t even get close to predicting the unemployment rate for May.

So, yeah. I extend that to ALL professions because frankly that’s how it’s always worked in the world from my own little inconsequential perspective of reality.

Elon is absolutely brilliant at what he does. He’s also entitled to have his opinion on any and all subjects. He’s also quite capable of being wrong on a subject he’s not well-versed in, but it doesn’t take away from the fact he’s absolutely brilliant at what he does, which is entirely UNRELATED to his opinion about COVID19. That you can’t distinguish the difference is your problem, not his.

He made sure Q1 was a success and he fought to get his company back manufacturing for Q2. On his behalf: you’re welcome.

Elon is in a position of responsibility because he (for better or worse) represents the Tesla brand. And lately he has represented it badly by engaging in ignorant and anti-scientific pronouncements on public health while engaging in a completely childish spat with Tesla's own local public health authorities. He has tarnished the brand. Is it enough to hurt Tesla's performance? The jury is out. That doesn't mean I'm picking up my toys and leaving. It means I'm paying attention to see how far the nonsense goes and how much it ends up hurting my "toys."

Edit: Supporting evidence that Elon's spat with Alameda County was childish, in the form of a records request of the public bodies involved:
Elon Musk vs. Bay Area officials: These emails show what happened behind the scenes in the Tesla factory fight

Petersen would have been the official to arrest Musk, but she chose not to use her handcuffs. Instead, she worked with local and Tesla officials to determine and then enforce the criteria that Tesla would have to establish in order to reopen the factory, emails between local officials show.

Musk wasn’t directly involved in the correspondence, which were largely civil exchanges between three women who worked for Tesla, the city and county — Petersen, Pan and Tesla vice president for environment, health and safety Laurie Shelby. The calm approach apparent in the emails contrasts with Musk’s brash public style.

It was all theater on Elon's part. There was never an evil cabal of bureaucrats conspiring to spoil his re-opening. It was legit public health concerns and rules, and handled professionally on the part of the public entities involved. IMO.

 

[Dr. J]

Law Enforcement Seizes Masks Meant To Protect Anti-Racist Protesters From COVID-19

Law Enforcement Seizes Masks Meant To Protect Anti-Racist Protesters From COVID-19 | HuffPost

UPDATE: June 5 ― Federal authorities released the masks on Friday morning, hours after HuffPost’s story was published.

The USPIS, responding to a follow-up question about what kind of non-mailable material they suspected the packages contained, said that “specific investigative methods used by Inspectors are sensitive and must remain confidential, but they are effective in helping to locate non-mailable matter of all kinds.”

Mark Jamison, a retired postmaster, told HuffPost that he suspects that an outside law enforcement organization was involved in the investigation, which the U.S. Postal Service Inspection Service denied. The U.S. Postal Service logs mail for law enforcement, and Jamison believes at least one of the organizers who was set to receive a package of masks was of interest to law enforcement.

The is a surveillance story.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

A little paper studying asymptomatic transmission in Vietnam. I think asymptomatic transmission is probably the biggest threat to Tesla's continuing production, at this point. 43% of carriers in this study were asymptomatic. Asymptomatic transmission appears to occur, but it appears to be less likely in people who are asymptomatic, and the viral load clears more quickly (shorter window of contagion).

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa711/5851471#.Xtm1o5p1gxV.twitter

 

[ggr]

Still fishy. At this moment the banner says:
View attachment 548271
1872660 - 1864016 == 8,664.
It's no wonder that it seems impossible to agree about how bad the pandemic is, when misinformation abounds.

And a few minutes after market close, it now says:

Note that the total hasn't changed but the increment has gone down.

 

[bkp_duke]

And a few minutes after market close, it now says:
View attachment 548325
Note that the total hasn't changed but the increment has gone down.

Different 24h interval perhaps? I.e. it's a true last 24h number, and not based upon calendar day?

 

[ggr]

Different 24h interval perhaps? I.e. it's a true last 24h number, and not based upon calendar day?

Well, who's to say? It tells you nothing about what the numbers are or how they are derived. Clicking it just updates the stock quote. It's like unlabelled axes on a graph. Makes my teeth move about.

 

[linux-works]

UPDATE: June 5 ― Federal authorities released the masks on Friday morning, hours after HuffPost’s story was published.

The USPIS, responding to a follow-up question about what kind of non-mailable material they suspected the packages contained, said that “specific investigative methods used by Inspectors are sensitive and must remain confidential, but they are effective in helping to locate non-mailable matter of all kinds.”

Mark Jamison, a retired postmaster, told HuffPost that he suspects that an outside law enforcement organization was involved in the investigation, which the U.S. Postal Service Inspection Service denied. The U.S. Postal Service logs mail for law enforcement, and Jamison believes at least one of the organizers who was set to receive a package of masks was of interest to law enforcement.

The is a surveillance story.

thanks for the update.

this is like the thief who is sorry he got caught, but not at all sorry he did the crime.

disgusting.

this is a war. a war on citizens by the powerful who really don't want to give up any of their power.

at any rate, this is not what america was ever about. I am ashamed of my country's officials. otoh, I am very proud of my countrymen who risk covid to go out and show that this is not acceptable.

 

[AZRI11]

Michigan is pumping up it's numbers https://twitter.com/Louisbotelho17/status/1269024881175334919?s=19

 

[RobStark]

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Michigan is pumping up it's numbers https://twitter.com/Louisbotelho17/status/1269024881175334919?s=19

"Probable cases are those in which the victim did not have a positive test but was presumed infected based on symptoms and possible connection to another positive case, like a family member, and COVID-19 was considered a cause of death."

I don't really see any reason why these would be unreasonable criteria. We know there are tons of people who have been infected who are not tested. I don't see why some of them wouldn't die. If anything, we're probably still undercounting. We'll never know the actual answer, of course, but we'll be able to look back at excess mortality and tease out all the other factors, and probably have a pretty good idea.

 

[N5329K]

Petersen would have been the official to arrest Musk, but she chose not to use her handcuffs. Instead, she worked with local and Tesla officials to determine and then enforce the criteria that Tesla would have to establish in order to reopen the factory, emails between local officials show.

It's good to know there are some actual adults involved. Thanks for the link.
Robin

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

After correcting for some modified reporting methods in Michigan and Minnesota, looks like over 500k tests today for the first time. About 23k positive cases, which is an notable increase, but with more testing results in about the same positivity. Obviously it matters where the tests are distributed - there are some regions where positivity is increasing, even though nationally it is not getting worse.

Regionally, it is concerning that the South and Southwest have increasing positivity in the presence of substantially increased testing. The states mentioned earlier (with increasing hospitalizations, when reported) are of concern, with AZ being a particular concern. Note that these are likely case counts predating the protests over the last week and a half, as the trends have been there for a while now. (Would line up more with Memorial Day & general relaxing of stay-at-home restrictions.) All the states that are getting worse originally had fairly small outbreaks, so that means that overall numbers nationwide are still trending down.

Really trying to thread the needle here. If we can keep ramping testing, there is a decent chance of keeping the numbers down. Depends on how focused people are on sticking with mask use, social distancing, etc., especially when indoors.

Tableau - Click on Metrics by Region

 

[ggr]

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

View attachment 548336

View attachment 548343

Poor New Zealand, misses out again.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Poor New Zealand, misses out again.

At least they're on the map: Maps without New Zealand on them

Zero new cases in 14 days there: 'Can't quite believe it': New Zealand tiptoes towards elimination of coronavirus

 

[KenC]

The issue is the jock culture and the emphasis placed on sports. Basically it teaches that studying is only for a few nerds, might makes right, and because you can be a success with sports you don't actually have to learn anything--especially if you come from a wealth family where connections and influence can set you up for life. (I'm sure everyone can pick at least one real life example.) The reason many IT positions are filled by those from India is because in India if you want to play sports you have to pay for it because there is no school supported sports and people actually study. (India does have other problems though.) In Southeast Asian countries, sports is a part of school life, but there are trimesters and longer total school hours so sports doesn't cut into the amount of time actually learning things (there are other cultural reasons as well). As long as sport celebrities are idolized more than scientists and engineers, there's little chance the U.S. will improve education. As a child I wanted to be either a scientist or an engineer, but there was zero guidance in what I had to do to achieve that. It took the next thirty years and night school to get to where I am now--which is a long way from where I desired to be.

Certainly jock culture doesn't help lead more kids into the sciences, but I think you put too much blame on it. We, nerds, love to play sports too, but perhaps, we're just not as good at it! Personally, I think a majority of the blame goes to parenting, or the lack of guidance from our parents.

 

[bkp_duke]

Certainly jock culture doesn't help lead more kids into the sciences, but I think you put too much blame on it. We, nerds, love to play sports too, but perhaps, we're just not as good at it! Personally, I think a majority of the blame goes to parenting, or the lack of guidance from our parents.

I don't know. I really have trouble feeling sorry for some people. I hear people complain why X, Y, and Z are not better for them, but I really want to ask them if they spent their evenings and weekends in high school studying or partying. Did they go to college? If so, did they get a marketable degree that would ensure some degree of financial independence? If they did not, did they learn a trade that would ensure some degree of financial independence?

If they didn't grow up where they had ZERO opportunities (inner city, homeless, etc.), and the answers to the above questions are not favorable, then I have a strong tendency to slap a lazy label on them and not feel too bad for them. We are a lazy ass country.

In fairness, however, I am a work-a-holic, so I might judge too harshly (but only a little bit).

 

[Causalien]

Certainly jock culture doesn't help lead more kids into the sciences, but I think you put too much blame on it. We, nerds, love to play sports too, but perhaps, we're just not as good at it! Personally, I think a majority of the blame goes to parenting, or the lack of guidance from our parents.

Nerd shame definitely exist in North America. If I were to weigh the cultures side by side. Your average asians (80% of them) will be considered Nerd by North American standard and most likely picked on one way or another during school for their nerdy behaviors. At least nowadays, even the jocks plays video games and real sport have been turned into nerdy game as well so the stigma with playing video game is lessened. But it is still lumped into loser behavior by members of the female species when time comes to complain about their boyfriend's lack of a job and ambition.