Coronavirus

[wdolson]

Meanwhile 64 people shot over the July 4th weekend with 10 dead de Blasio must be proud. I suppose it was ok for Cuomo to put Covid 19 patients in nursing homes

There was a report on that I saw a couple of days ago. A study showed that what brought COVID into the nursing homes was infected employees not elderly people released from the hospital after recovery.

 

[ZeApelido]

I don't think that shows the deaths as steady, unless you're talking about the last three days. We're now seeing the start of the upswing in mortality - it's now poking up above the baseline death tail from the first surge of the virus.

Sorry that's what I meant, steady the last 3 days. Now doesn't seem to be just a correction to the holiday weekend.

 

[dhanson865]

It's a slow burn but Mexico passing the European countries and looking to take #3 on the list at least until India catches up.

 

[dhanson865]

UK study on ethnicity vs Covid deaths. Covers the gender issue also.

 

[hobbes]

The local Alameda County numbers are all headed the wrong direction. 5% positivity and climbing (ignore the end).

It's definitely a risk but I think based on Elon's unhinged response last time they'll tread carefully this time. Sometimes it pays to be insane.

I don't think they'll mandate a shutdown unless they have a superspreader event inside the factory. This is becoming much more likely all the time (I am certain they have employees coming down with infections all the time). This is now approaching 1000x the infection density that the Shanghai factory ever encountered after reopening, IIRC (did the calcs before).

It's likely just a matter of time before an employee dies. Hopefully they're doing a very excellent job of enforcing sanitation measures at the factory. It's probably possible to make it sort of safe, but everyone has to really be very serious about it.

But, who ever would have guessed that building cars in a tent would be pandemic proof? Maybe that's what is driving the stock price; market anticipates that only car manufacturers building cars in tents will be able to continue to build cars?
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Thanks. That was the kind of analysis I was looking for. Can you share the source of the plots?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Thanks. That was the kind of analysis I was looking for. Can you share the source of the plots?

If you search Alameda County Coronavirus it will link to the website. They have two dashboards with relevant info.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

whether on this issue he’s right or not is left to be seen IMO

I disagree on this. He was clearly, and repeatedly, completely wrong on coronavirus (coronavirus not as dangerous as driving to work, tautological comment about coronavirus panic being dumb, will go away by end of April, suspicious case/death numbers, false positive PCRs). And he continues to be wrong - his Twitter feed is like a summary guide to every completely unsubstantiated and debunked conspiracy theory about coronavirus. Pick a sh*tty theory, he has picked up on it. I can’t think of a single take from him on it which has been correct, except possibly the wisdom of reopening his factory. He’s doing about as good a job of staying in his lane as an AP system with wonky cameras.

 

[SageBrush]

Is that Mike-Sycophant-in Chief-Pence? The one who looks adoringly at the Donald whenever the Donald is spouting psychotic nonsense? If it's that Mike Pence, it makes perfect sense!! He's tremendous!. And he's done a tremendous job with Coronavirus!

Fauci summed up Pinocchio Pence very well the other day when he pointed out that the job of a VP is to promote his boss and to look for silver linings to feed the electorate. Fauci also said that Pence is doing a good job as head of the Covid-19 task force.

I personally think Pinocchio is an Evangelical moron with the morals of a white supremacist but if Fauci can tolerate him then I can ignore him.

 

[SageBrush]

There is a history of drugs getting approved by the FDA only to be withdrawn later when they were found to be dangerous or ineffective

That is a poor summary. The history is that of cost/benefit changing over time.

Currently in the US, about 1/7 of reported cases end up in the hospital, and about 1/4 of hospitalized end up in the ICU. That is the context through which to view a vaccine. If you are a money type person, you have to consider the opportunity cost of delaying vaccination to yourself, your community and the economy.

 

[SageBrush]

but over past few months have come to realize this COVID-19 isn’t as bad as I thought it would be and trying to figure it out.

Let me start you on your journey. The USA population is 330 million.
One percent is 3.3 million.
One half of one percent is 1.65 million

For every Covid-19 death, there are 4 - 5 hospitalizations
The mean cost of a hospitalization is ~ $130,0000

Extra credit for beginners: the tempo of the epidemic is no less important than the final numbers.

 

[SageBrush]

To those who feel optimistic about the falling morbidity and mortality lately: do realize that it is a consequence of a wave of young people getting infected. The thing is, that cohort will pass on infection to other age groups. It should be beyond obvious that the age of infection in the population will regress to the mean.

 

[cwerdna]

but over past few months have come to realize this COVID-19 isn’t as bad as I thought it would be and trying to figure it out.

Have you seen what's going on in TX, AZ and FL in terms of hospitals and ICU beds filling up, massive lines for testing (at least in AZ) and the very elevated test positivity rates?

Will be real interesting when schools start opening back up for in-person education, even partially.

 

[wdolson]

That is a poor summary. The history is that of cost/benefit changing over time.

Currently in the US, about 1/7 of reported cases end up in the hospital, and about 1/4 of hospitalized end up in the ICU. That is the context through which to view a vaccine. If you are a money type person, you have to consider the opportunity cost of delaying vaccination to yourself, your community and the economy.

But what if the vaccine leads to 3% getting a fatal heart attack or worse from a cost perspective has some complication that puts people in the hospital for weeks? That's a higher cost than from COVID alone.

 

[jerry33]

But what if the vaccine leads to 3% getting a fatal heart attack or worse from a cost perspective has some complication that puts people in the hospital for weeks? That's a higher cost than from COVID alone.

And what if an asteroid wipes us all out tomorrow? I noticed that no one refused the Salk vaccine when it appeared because no on wanted to get polio.

 

[wdolson]

And what if an asteroid wipes us all out tomorrow? I noticed that no one refused the Salk vaccine when it appeared because no on wanted to get polio.

Historical Vaccine Safety Concerns Concerns | Vaccine Safety | CDC

From 1955 to 1963, an estimated 10-30% of polio vaccines administered in the US were contaminated with simian virus 40 (SV40). The virus came from monkey kidney cell cultures used to make polio vaccines at that time.

People were more trusting of the authorities at the time, but there were problems with the early polio vaccines.

The reason people became distrusting of medicine was because of incidents around the same time like this including Thalidomide and Diethylstibestrol (DES). I know two women who were affected in utero from their mothers taking DES.

BTW, I'm not an anti-vaxxer, I'm just very cautious about new medicines. Personally I have a history of weird reactions to drugs so I have to be extremely cautious with any drug. But I've known too many people who had life altering side effects from drugs too.

 

[madodel]

Historical Vaccine Safety Concerns Concerns | Vaccine Safety | CDC



People were more trusting of the authorities at the time, but there were problems with the early polio vaccines.

The reason people became distrusting of medicine was because of incidents around the same time like this including Thalidomide and Diethylstibestrol (DES). I know two women who were affected in utero from their mothers taking DES.

BTW, I'm not an anti-vaxxer, I'm just very cautious about new medicines. Personally I have a history of weird reactions to drugs so I have to be extremely cautious with any drug. But I've known too many people who had life altering side effects from drugs too.

That was 60 years ago. Hopefully there have been a few developments since then to try to prevent things like this. The biggest question for me is how much damage has been done to the FDA, NIH and the CDC in the past 3 1/2 years that might weaken the ability to find problems. My wife keeps telling me she will do everything she can to get whatever vaccine comes out first. I on the other hand have a Signature X so I learned that going first with cutting edge is not always the safest idea.

 

[jerry33]

That was 60 years ago. Hopefully there have been a few developments since then to try to prevent things like this. The biggest question for me is how much damage has been done to the FDA, NIH and the CDC in the past 3 1/2 years that might weaken the ability to find problems. My wife keeps telling me she will do everything she can to get whatever vaccine comes out first. I on the other hand have a Signature X so I learned that going first with cutting edge is not always the safest idea.

FWIW, four of the last five new cars I purchased were first years. Only one turned out to be a mistake (No, not the Tesla, the VW--I guess everyone has to buy one VW until they learn.). The rest were as good as any other new car.

 

[bkp_duke]

But what if the vaccine leads to 3% getting a fatal heart attack or worse from a cost perspective has some complication that puts people in the hospital for weeks? That's a higher cost than from COVID alone.

No vaccine would make it out of testing with a 3% fatality rate. No vaccine would make it out of testing with a 0.01% fatality rate (above baseline). It's one of those hard stops that they pull vaccines early for.

 

[SageBrush]

But what if the vaccine leads to 3% getting a fatal heart attack

It would have stopped that vaccine's development within weeks in the phase I trial.

When did you turn into an Eeyore ?

 

[SageBrush]

The reason people became distrusting of medicine was because of incidents around the same time like this including Thalidomide

You are comparing morning sickness to Covid-19.

Not too smart