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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I am going start wearing my Vader helmet, complete with respirator.
Doc Vader on COVID-19 Hand Hygiene
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Yes and there is a significant chance we will have irreversibly destroyed our economy and society/civilization as we know it as a result. Like a societal cytokine storm reaction by society because of media sensationalism.
25 years ago if this happened the public and govt reaction of lockdowns and shutting down of schools and most businesses would not have been nearly this strong IMO...Actual COVID-19 deaths may have been significantly higher BUT the economy and society would not have been potentially destroyed which ultimately leads to much more downstream deaths/crime and poverty in months and years aheadthat we could very POSSIBLY never recover from
I blame the advent of click-bait social/internet media...
This is an unpopular opinion but I believe only real solution is to find some way for govt to regulate media in a way to at least fundamentally change the business model so that we/public are no longer ‘the product‘
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
The only thing destroying the economy is the virus. We should get rid of it (in effect), like reasonable human beings. The shutdown saved a bunch of lives, and continues to save lives every day, even though it's over. But we should get rid of the virus! This is not complicated, and we know exactly what to do.
I think you're right about deaths being higher if this had happened 25 years ago. But I don't think there's any significant chance of society or the economy being destroyed, as long as the Fed keeps up the good work. As far as earlier times are concerned: I think you underestimate the psychological impact of hospitals collapsing with a surge of patients (which would have happened in more locations with the slower flow of information, probably), and I suspect the economic impact in prior times would have been substantially GREATER than it is now, since it would not have been possible for many to work remotely, the Fed probably couldn't stimulate as readily, and I think you're underestimating the effect those hospital collapses have on the general population.
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Unfortunately I think some of the economic damage is going to be with us for a while. If the government had handled things competently, we would have put the economy into an induced coma, dealt with the virus, and brought it back. But now things have been so badly botched a lot of people are going to end up losing significant ground economically.
A lot of people were granted a few months holiday on their mortgage payments, but instead of adding the payments onto the end of the loan, a lot of lenders want several months of payments all at once now. Similar thing with other loans as well as rent owed. We could see a lot of home foreclosures, people evicted from rental housing, and cars repossessed in the coming months. Those people won't be returning to their pre-COVD spending habits for years, and possibly longer. The homelessness crisis could be severe and a big drag on the economy for years to come.
In the business sector, a lot of companies have scaled back and there are many corporate bankruptcies. There was already a big shift in economic habits going on that was hurting brick and mortar stores that accelerated with the pandemic. People are buying more than ever online and when the pandemic is over, that is unlikely to go back to pre-pandemic levels. That means a lot of retail jobs are going away permanently. Some people who are either too stupid or have high risk tolerances are going out to eat in some parts of the country, but a lot of people aren't eating out. We've been getting take out here and there, but most of my neighbors won't even do that.
When the pandemic is over, a lot of bars and restaurants are not going to be there anymore. As people become confident the virus really is gone, people will want to eat out again, but it may take years for that sector to recover.
On the other hand the supply problems with China has made people aware of the risks of depending on one supplier and some manufacturing may move back home, but it will likely utilize the state of the art in automation and as few people as possible.
China may be disrupted for a while. As I've been able to glean (getting accurate news out of China is difficult). China's economy has become unstable with some runs on their banks, and they are being hit with some major disasters. In the summer China usually gets a smaller version of the Indian monsoons, but this year is breaking all records. They normally have a month of heavy rain from mid-July to mid-August, but it started in early June and hasn't stopped. The forecast for the next two weeks is for even heavier rain than they have seen thus far.
They have already broken flooding records from as far back as 1940. The worst flood recorded in world history was in 1931 (in the same region) and they are pretty close to that, though it's hard to compare exactly because the rivers and areas around the rivers are very different from 1931. Most of their farm region is underwater and there will be little in the way of crops this year.
The Chinese have a concept called the Mandate of Heaven that basically says China is ruled by leaders who have spiritual blessing. When that blessing is withdrawn, the country is hit with many natural disasters and unrest until a new ruling order takes over. There is a lot of talk about the Mandate of Heaven around China right now. There were posters reminding people of it all over Hong Kong until the CCP made the posters illegal.
Between the natural disasters and possible political unrest spreading from Hong Kong to the rest of the country, China may not be able to supply the world with its manufactured goods for some time to come.
If the US steps up to fill the gap left by turmoil in China, it would definitely help the economy, but it will probably take a few years to accomplish, even if the US jumps on it and starts rehabbing old factories Jan 21.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Stimulate, stimulate, stimulate. $4 trillion? $5 trillion?
This is (actually) fine. It seems to work. It kind of sucks that Trump has wasted all this money, but does not mean it is not effective or not necessary.
It really easy: make it illegal to trade private users data. Just like, at least in France, it is illegal to trade body parts. Even if I consent to selling my kidney, no one is can buy it because it has been made illegal. What I read, watch, click, write (etc) and what can be inferred from it is private, and shouldn't be traded. Of course that would force media (and many websites) to reinvent their business models but that will be for the best. And we could get back the early Internet (when everything wasn't about $).
Big topic but I would be fine with this as a start toward a better solution. Nothing is perfect but what we have is the worst of all solutions IMO. I ran a BBS system at one time decades ago and what the internet has become sickens me.
It's great to get a combination of grotesque counterfactual attribution paired with moral outrage. The notion that we have irretrievably destroyed our economy and civilization really sounds just a little bit overblown doesn't it? As the Swedish experiment proves, economic activity is depressed by covid-19 and by people's legitimate desire not to get ill, irrespective of restrictions. Sweden has had significantly more deaths, far fewer restrictions, and has fared no better economically than its neighbors that have done some form of mitigation, restriction, social distancing, masks mandates, Etc. Your lack of support for those measures is duly noted. Since you don't support them and since they're the only way of controlling this outbreak and getting our economy back, that suggests you really don't understand the facts on the ground. So you're spinning your wheels. Here's a graphic that summarizes the painful epidemiological facts for people like you. Read It and Weep. It makes it clear that with decent Public Health measures countries bounce back fairly quickly and get their economies back on track. That's not going to happen in the United States because we have not instituted those Public Health measures. So wake up and stop protesting about the wrong issue.
And like a lot of self-styled right wing moralists, what you're recommending namely that the government finally get control over the media so that the media can stop all this needless agitating about a flu virus, amounts to totalitarianism. Read the f****** Constitution. You're not a patriot you're promoting fascism.
PS one thing I agree with you about is the generally irresponsible approach taken by big social media companies. But mostly what they've been amplifying has been hate speech, disinformation, and conspiracy theories. All of those are in the service of covid-19 denial. With the incredible polarisation and fragmentation in the United States (which this disinformation campaign of course is only amplifying), and with widespread non-compliance to basic epidemiologically informed practice, including such simple things as mask wearing in public and social distancing, is it any wonder that the outbreak in the United States is out of control?
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
On the upside, the MLB season seems to be going smoothly. Schools should have it even easier in a few weeks, since they don’t have the same requirements to be in close contact that MLB has, and they can be a lot more careful and employ a lot of good safety procedures. The return to normalcy continues apace.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Have you changed your opinion?
I wonder if Brian Wesbury has updated to graph? Should we be concerned the COVID-19 is getting more deadly?
(just in case it's not clear, I'm rolling my eyes).
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my opinion evolves over time based on info i observe, vet, and take in which I realize in itself is very imperfect and incomplete. For the most part now my opinion is the graph above and how it has changed represents MORE caution than before but that the integrity of much of the data we look at cannot be fully trusted.... Testing has gone way up everywhere too and IFR has gone down a lot too it seems
Based on my opinion that many people seem to think they know what's going on (especially those who call themselves 'experts' we must be weary of trusting as they truly believe their own view is ' absolutely correct' most of the time and can be quite convincing/persuasive, but then you also see 'experts' arguing opposite sides too) but that none of us ACTUALLY do know how serious this can get except that it's somewhere between a once every 10-25 year bad flu season and at worst as bad as the Spanish Flu of 1918...then we should tread carefully but not in a way that ruins the economy potentially forever.
Let kids go back to school (keeping all children home for years one can argue is worse than results of Spanish Flu), everyone should wear masks when indoors in particular.. if anyone feels sick or gets a cough/cold symptoms they should get tested and isolate until results come back, and our elderly (anyone over 60 or 65) and others with co-morbidities should be very careful and stay in 'lockdown' mode as much as they can but give them freedom to be out and about at their own risk. And the Hydroxychlorquine/Zinc/Zpach cocktail should be OTC, let people take that at their own risk too...can argue that OTC tylenol is more dangerous
But anyone, under age 50 especially who is healthy I think should be going back to the real world functions with masks and social distancing indoors especially (no handshakes, but elbow taps, no hugs, less physical contact, etc.)
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
It's probably gone from about 0.7% to about 0.5%. The lockdown is continuing to save lives every day, even though it's over!
This is an estimate, but it's a true attempt to model the IFR, which seems to work fairly well. (Methodology explained elsewhere in his tweets if you peruse them.) I can't remember how he's dealing with the effect of shifting age distribution of cases in these plots, but he's aware of that factor and I believe he's trying to back it out of these plots as a factor (but I can't remember and I'm not going to check the methodology again right now).
https://twitter.com/_stah/status/1289129551067582469?s=20
I'm weary of people who don't listen to the experts, who have been right over and over and over again.
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View attachment 570956
Have you changed your opinion?
I wonder if Brian Wesbury has updated to graph? Should we be concerned the COVID-19 is getting more deadly?
LOL.
Wonder what Brian Wesbury is smoking. He's got the non deniers divided into people who are genuinely worried about covid-19 and people who are just trying to shut down and damage the economy as much as possible. I bet there are a lot of people in that camp! Then he produces dubious bar graphs that do not incorporate the recent spike in mortality to reassure the people who are genuinely worried about covid-19 that it's just the flu. No mention of the recent work that shows that even for folks with milder presentations, more than three-quarters of them have significant cardiac involvement and abnormalities, amplifying earlier work showing lung abnormalities, all of which suggests this is not something you want to catch and find out whether you have long-term organ damage or whether you escape that possibility.There's being drunk, and then there's being drunk on bulls***. He's got a bad case of the latter
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
It looks like school reopening will be no problem. Kids are basically immune and don't contract the virus. Just have to make sure they are as quiet as church mice. And wear masks. Then there will be guaranteed to be no problem.
SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Infection Among Attendees of an...
Seriously:
1) Looks like pretty high attack rates in all age groups.
2) About 26% asymptomatic, but these data are wishy-washy due to incomplete symptom data.
3) Overnight, singing, no mask wearing by campers didn't help. However, staff members (who allegedly were supposed to wear masks) had the highest attack rates. But probably they weren't wearing masks when sleeping and not clear it would really help anyway in an enclosed cabin with AC.
SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Infection Among Attendees of an...
Seriously:
1) Looks like pretty high attack rates in all age groups.
2) About 26% asymptomatic, but these data are wishy-washy due to incomplete symptom data.
3) Overnight, singing, no mask wearing by campers didn't help. However, staff members (who allegedly were supposed to wear masks) had the highest attack rates. But probably they weren't wearing masks when sleeping and not clear it would really help anyway in an enclosed cabin with AC.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Maybe we should just send kids to camp before going to school so that they can get herd immunity?
Seems better than the current plan of having them come home every day to infect their parents and older relatives.
This group of kids must have had defective T-cells...
44% attack rate is probably way low too. They only tested 58% of attendees.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Going to camp to get herd immunity: That's a good idea. Modifying that plan a bit: Maybe the first 3-4 weeks of school should be structured as a giant nationwide COVID sleepover, with older teenagers and young adults providing both the infection and the supervision? What could go wrong?
For colleges, they can just go back early and have massive COVID raves for a month before interacting with the staff and faculty.
Agreed on the defective T-cells. Can't trust those things to fire up when you need them to lower the herd immunity threshold.
Note that negative test results are frequently not reported in Georgia, so it's possible they tested more than 58%. Obviously as usual the data are imperfect and hard to completely analyze but the capture rate here is high enough that it at least gives a general idea of what happened.
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My mindset about this COVID19 is pretty closely aligned to this guy...skip past first 2 minutes and 30 seconds and he discusses suspicionS/skepticism of COVId19 I also have.
A Real Man Would...: Solo Pod Experiment on Apple Podcasts
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
It's just bizarre that one would be skeptical because one doesn't personally know anyone who has died of coronavirus. Is that the bar we need to get over now? And somehow that means it is fishy? Just incredibly bizarre. 0.05% of the US population has died, predominantly in low-income, disadvantaged, and elderly communities, which are more vulnerable to exposure and to the effects of the virus. Not sure why most Tesla drivers and podcasters would think they're going to have heavily affected social circles (unless they live in a very hard hit city like NY). I don't personally know anyone who has died of flu (ever!), but I don't need to know that to understand & KNOW that it is a serious disease that kills, and that getting a vaccine protects myself and others, especially those who are vulnerable.
This mentality does explain why hard-hit states continue to do well for now, though. Presumably that mental inoculation will wear off with time, unfortunately.
Believe the experts. Listen to Fauci. He's level-headed, states the facts, and understands the dangers. He's not going to tell you that children are in great danger (he just pushed back on that in his testimony this morning for example), but he also understands what are the risks associated with returning to school, and states as much.
The good news is that school & college re-openings and the onset of fall temperatures should really seal the deal with the truthers. Yes, I'm throwing caution to the wind and making predictions this time (I didn't make predictions in May about how things were going to go, since we had a real chance to defeat the virus if we did the right thing): It's going to be a total sh**show in about two months. That's assuming two things: 1) the status quo on federal response (at any time, the federal government can choose to effectively eliminate the virus from the population through appropriate targeted actions already discussed ad nauseum - it'll be clear if this happens, and obviously my sh**show prediction would then be invalid) and 2) A fairly widespread return to school/college even in areas where it is not advisable.
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