Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

But interestingly, its a report that seems to me to confirm the ultility of mask/respirators (high asymptomatic rate)

It’s like you are not even reading the responses to you about the “mysterious” 80% asymptomatic rate. I’ve seen this sort of behavior before, though, in residents of countries where things were supposed to be just fine, but then...they just weren’t. I call it COVID derangement syndrome, but it is really just one of the stages of grief (probably bargaining or maybe denial), so it is quite understandable, and I feel your frustration.

News flash: the asymptomatic rate was not 80%. My guess is it was 30-40%, just like everywhere else. But, we’ll never know until they do a study and write a paper about the cruise which is designed to ascertain the actual asymptomatic rate. And that’s impossible at this point due to recall issues/bias.

I would recommend following the guidance of the US CDC for asymptomatic rate, which is currently estimated at 40%. This number will likely be refined over time and any age dependence clarified.

It’s very difficult to determine asymptomatic rate, for a bunch of reasons - some mentioned already. One big issue: incomplete symptom definition (wrong questions asked). Also, in very mild cases, it may be difficult to get truthful answers from infected individuals.

But, the CDC remains very good at working through these problems, so I’d keep an eye on their estimates.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

While my earlier post about herd immunity was written somewhat tongue in cheek, I’ve been considering this, and I am basically convinced now that the President (or at least his advisers - he may not know the strategy, due to his busy schedule) have decided to go for herd immunity in the United States.

There really is no other rational explanation for the behavior over the last 7 months, and I think they really are committed to it now.

School really is the key to this strategy going forward, which explains the strong push for it in conjunction with zero funding to make it possible to do safely. As I said before, it really is an excellent way to provide the mixing needed to ensure that infections and community spread are properly distributed into all communities, which is essential for effective herd immunity.

They are presumably emboldened by the 200k deaths with perhaps 15% of the population infected (we’ll see!), so now they’re presumably reasonably well assured that a shade fewer than 1 million people would die by the time robust herd immunity was reached. I imagine this would be viewed as a very positive outcome in cabinet meetings.

It appears hospitals can handle surges now, and they’ll probably try to accelerate the rate of infection a bit, to ensure that heath care workers can finally get a break by the end of the year or early next year. More speed is needed to get things over with quickly. That of course is good for the economy too. Also means that fewer vaccine doses are needed, which should save a few bucks.

Also, they’re going to look like geniuses if there is some issue with the vaccine. We’ll be so far ahead of the game.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I’m becoming more and more convinced this thread has outlived its usefulness. Several prolific posters, who seem to believe they know it all, have systematically been pushing out any dissenting voices, more often than not in a condescending way. It has turned into a one man COVID-19 show (well, actually a three man show), which adds little value to a Tesla forum. If the situation does not improve the thread will be shut down.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Several prolific posters, who seem to believe they know it all, have systematically been pushing out any dissenting voices, more often than not in a condescending way.

BS is generally shut down, I would agree, sometimes in ways that may seem a bit brusque, but there’s obviously a ton even the more knowledgeable posters don’t know about the pandemic (and they often say so!). The knowledge base is a lot better than it used to be (which seems to have meant that at least the nonsense about IFRs below 0.1% has stopped, which is good).

Personally, I try very hard to not be condescending (sometimes I am, but usually in a joking way). I would add that the cost of bad information in this pandemic can be the loss of life, so it is critical that good information be amplified, and bad information shut down (preferably dismantled point by point). It’s not “just money” as it is with many investment threads.

I’d also suggest that it’s still possible that this could become even more relevant to Tesla. I mean, COVID-19 is most definitely affecting their earnings every day this pandemic continues! Heaven forbid if Elon picks up the virus, for example. He is likely at considerably higher risk of contracting the disease than most (due to travel - even though presumably he flies privately).

 

[jerry33]

While my earlier post about herd immunity was written somewhat tongue in cheek, I’ve been considering this, and I am basically convinced now that the President (or at least his advisers - he may not know the strategy, due to his busy schedule) have decided to go for herd immunity in the United States.

There really is no other rational explanation for the behavior over the last 7 months, and I think they really are committed to it now.

Actually there is, but it's political.

 

[dfwatt]

What


What part of 80% asymptomatic rate is not impressive.

Seriously, is there any other dataset with such good health outcomes for what is presumably an older cohort with covid19?

Either
They caught covid19 before mask use or after mask use, but something resulted in low severity of the disease despite allowing wide transmission.

It's anecdotal, unverified, and hard to interpret. As for the speculation that the use of masks somehow contributed to this reported number, again from a scientific standpoint, I'm sure you must recognize that that has virtually no value. At least not by itself. I would go this far - it's an intriguing statistic. But again in the absence of some other datapoint or replication in a larger cohort, it's mostly uninterpretable. For example, it's possible although unlikely that because people were on a cruise they were sitting outdoors and had acquired at least during the time of infection a higher vitamin D level. This is just an example of the kind of alternative explanation that can't be excluded. Do we know anything about the quality of the testing that was done on them? Were they using a test with significant false positives? Again all of these possibilities have to be excluded before you can draw any conclusions at all. Scientific probes to be meaningful have to control for all the confounds, and many variables affecting outcome. In the absence of those controls, again this is simply anecdotal data. Keep in mind that even the 80% asymptomatic number if verified is only slightly more than double what the current estimates are of asymptomatic cases in the general population. We just don't know what this might mean. I actually agree with your posting of this as long as one just says this is intriguing and unexplained. That's of value, but drawing too many conclusions from it is just unsupported and not scientific. I hope that does not seem unfair.

 

[Dr. J]

I’m becoming more and more convinced this thread has outlived its usefulness. Several prolific posters, who seem to believe they know it all, have systematically been pushing out any dissenting voices, more often than not in a condescending way. It has turned into a one man COVID-19 show (well, actually a three man show), which adds little value to a Tesla forum. If the situation does not improve the thread will be shut down.

There is value in this thread, with the judicious use of the ignore button. It's an easy workaround to the noise.

 

[Dr. J]

I am basically convinced now that the President (or at least his advisers - he may not know the strategy, due to his busy schedule) have decided to go for herd immunity in the United States.

There really is no other rational explanation for the behavior over the last 7 months, and I think they really are committed to it now.

I propose that a strategy for herd immunity is indistinguishable from no strategy at'all, the latter of which is more likely in this case. It's hard to tell, absent an announcement of strategy. Incompetence is a factor, too.

 

[jerry33]

I’m becoming more and more convinced this thread has outlived its usefulness. Several prolific posters, who seem to believe they know it all, have systematically been pushing out any dissenting voices, more often than not in a condescending way. It has turned into a one man COVID-19 show (well, actually a three man show), which adds little value to a Tesla forum. If the situation does not improve the thread will be shut down.

This thread is where I find most of my information as most other sources are unreliable or way above my pay grade.

 

[madodel]

This thread is where I find most of my information as most other sources are unreliable or way above my pay grade.

Definitely. I read most of the links posted here to find out what is going on. There is very little actual coverage locally. I also get emailed articles from medical journals that I post links to if I find them informative. It is interesting to see the reactions from the professionals. Honestly if trolls in the main TSLA thread would be dealt with the same way I might go back to reading that. But honestly that thread has become mostly noise.

 

[dfwatt]

I’m becoming more and more convinced this thread has outlived its usefulness. Several prolific posters, who seem to believe they know it all, have systematically been pushing out any dissenting voices, more often than not in a condescending way. It has turned into a one man COVID-19 show (well, actually a three man show), which adds little value to a Tesla forum. If the situation does not improve the thread will be shut down.

It's hard to be neutral in the face of so much disinformation. And this disinformation has consequences, including lethal consequences for some. Additionally, the disnformation is being spread by malignant State actors, it is contributing directly to the severity of the pandemic particularly in the United States but also in Brazil and Mexico. It is literally lethal in this context. Since it is not taken down, at least not to my knowledge, what would you recommend? It's hard to know for sure what the loss of life would be just alone in this country with a public health response that was not completely clogged up with denial and disinformation. But very conservatively, I would say that a public health response informed by epidemiology rather than disinformation would have saved at least a hundred thousand lives. 100000 lives. How should we feel about that? If we are not upset, angry, and distressed by that, isn't something wrong with us?

I do clinical science for a living. I will admit to having at times an irritated reaction to people who do not understand how science works. How would you feel about folks passionately posting Earth-is-flat memes? Is that a position that you regard as equally valid to the "conventional view"- what has been scientifically validated literally a million times? A critical question is are those positions equally valid? Because if they are we are lost. Science, for all its flaws, for all its mistakes and wrong turns, is the only method we have – the only method – for separating the Non-Stop production of human wishful thinking and delusion from something we can call consensually validated reality. It is the only means for separating those things. We have zero other means for accomplishing that critical task of trying to find out what this thing called reality is aside from all the wishes and fears that we continually project onto it. The great thing about science is that because it rests on testable predictions and continual hypothesis testing bad ideas eventually get exposed for what they are. It's not clear that you would agree with that view of science. But if you don't, please advise.

Truth and facts matter, and now more than ever in an age where post-fact disinformation has become the currency on much of social media. One of the most Insidious memes in the current environment is that expert opinion is just political opinion. That is total BS. And it's contributing directly to the covid-19 crisis in a variety of ways. Science is not a political opinion. It has been politicized in the current environment, but the passionate insistence on science and scientific findings as having something other than simply weight of political opinion is a critical issue. Perhaps no more so than in the current age where we are facing motivated disinformation about climate change and about covid-19. In both instances the disinformation is being promoted in the service of maintaining vested interests and is straightforwardly a corrupt exercise of power. What would you have us do about that? Again on a Tesla forum? Where Tesla is supposedly standing up for the legitimacy and most especially the reality of climate science, the need for respect for the environment, and the fragility of Earth's ecosystems?

If you have a different understanding about all this, by all means please advise.

 

[KG M3]

I’m becoming more and more convinced this thread has outlived its usefulness. Several prolific posters, who seem to believe they know it all, have systematically been pushing out any dissenting voices, more often than not in a condescending way. It has turned into a one man COVID-19 show (well, actually a three man show), which adds little value to a Tesla forum. If the situation does not improve the thread will be shut down.

I could not disagree more strongly. Several people post studies, data and otherwise verifiable evidence that can be discussed and evaluated. Others try to repeatedly post unsupported suppositions or opinions. Those opinions are evaluated based on their lack of verifiable support and appropriately disregarded

It's anecdotal, unverified, and hard to interpret. As for the speculation that the use of masks somehow contributed to this reported number, again from a scientific standpoint, I'm sure you must recognize that that has virtually no value. At least not by itself. I would go this far - it's an intriguing statistic. But again in the absence of some other datapoint or replication in a larger cohort, it's mostly uninterpretable. . . We just don't know what this might mean. I actually agree with your posting of this as long as one just says this is intriguing and unexplained. That's of value, but drawing too many conclusions from it is just unsupported and not scientific. I hope that does not seem unfair.

Case in point.

There is value in this thread, with the judicious use of the ignore button. It's an easy workaround to the noise.

Agreed

This thread is where I find most of my information as most other sources are unreliable or way above my pay grade.

Further value to this thread.

Definitely. I read most of the links posted here to find out what is going on. There is very little actual coverage locally. I also get emailed articles from medical journals that I post links to if I find them informative. It is interesting to see the reactions from the professionals. Honestly if trolls in the main TSLA thread would be dealt with the same way I might go back to reading that. But honestly that thread has become mostly noise.

Agreed - these links to the actual data and real studies (clinical trials and others) are not reasonably located elsewhere. (Maybe just a consequence of my insufficient Google skills, but the signal to noise ratio for COVID today is an infinitesimal number)

It's hard to be neutral in the face of disinformation. First of all disinformation is being spread by malignant State actors, it is contributing directly to the severity of the pandemic particularly in the United States but also in Brazil and Mexico. It is literally lethal in this context. Since it is not taken down, at least not to my knowledge, what would you recommend?

I do clinical science for a living. I will admit to having at times an irritated reaction to people who do not understand how science works. How would you feel about folks passionately posting Earth-is-flat memes? Is that a position that you regard as equally valid to the "conventional View"- what has been scientifically validated literally a million times?

Truth and facts matter. One of the most Insidious memes in the current environment is that expert opinion is just political opinion. That is total BS. And it's contributing directly to the covid-19 crisis in a variety of ways. Science is not a political opinion. It has been politicized in the current environment, but the passionate insistence on science and scientific findings as having something other than simply weight of political opinion is a critical issue. Perhaps no more so than in the current age where we are facing motivated disinformation about climate change and about covid-19. In both instances the disinformation is being promoted in the service of maintaining vested interests and is straightforwardly a corrupt exercise of power. What would you have us do about that? Again on a Tesla forum? Where Tesla is supposedly standing up for the legitimacy of climate change, the need for respect for the environment, and the fragility of Earth's ecosystems? Please advise.

An appropriate call to action. I would hope that moderators on a Tesla forum would appreciate a call to expose disinformation.

This thread IS useful and informative. When dissenting information is presented, the supporting data is evaluated. If there is no supporting data, it is typically requested. If it is not presented, the unsupported opinion is shown for what it is.

This forum needs more threads like this one.

 

[JRP3]

I’m becoming more and more convinced this thread has outlived its usefulness. Several prolific posters, who seem to believe they know it all, have systematically been pushing out any dissenting voices, more often than not in a condescending way. It has turned into a one man COVID-19 show (well, actually a three man show), which adds little value to a Tesla forum. If the situation does not improve the thread will be shut down.

This is a perfect example of a mod overstepping their bounds, once again. There are in fact posters here who do know more than others, and that information is more valuable. Science based discussion should never be silenced.

To all: If this thread gets shut down I suggest starting a new one in another section of the forum that this moderator doesn't control. Off Topic seems like it should be a safe place.

 

[bkp_duke]

This is a perfect example of a mod overstepping their bounds, once again. There are in fact posters here who do know more than others, and that information is more valuable. Science based discussion should never be silenced.

To all: If this thread gets shut down I suggest starting a new one in another section of the forum that this moderator doesn't control. Off Topic seems like it should be a safe place.

It's not just about knowing more than someone else, but many of us (and I'm SURE I am the prime candidate being referred to) have an EXTREMELY low threshold for BS when it comes to those untrained in science coming around spouting some crap that they want to promote AS science. Somehow, American society has made the erroneous assumption that when it comes to science, all opinions (even those of the untrained in science) are equal. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Allowing the politicization of science and not harshly calling those people out that make assertions without proof, or worse against the FULL body of evidence (i.e. those that want to cherry pick studies to support their own beliefs while failing to look at the body of evidence as a WHOLE), is one of the greatest sins possible. It diminishes the value of science by letting anyone politicize it and put forth that opinion of something is just as valuable as FACTS. For those of us that are ACTUAL scientists, it's the greatest possible sin against science, which by it's very nature is supposed to unbiased.


So do I come down harshly on those that come in here with "I think" and "what ifs" without evidence or showing clear bias? Absolutely, and for that there should be no apology.

 

[jerry33]

Somehow, American society has made the erroneous assumption that when it comes to science, all opinions (even those of the untrained in science) are equal. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Unfortunately, that is how the media treats it. "My uninformed opinion is just as valid as your science."

 

[madodel]

US tops 5 million confirmed virus cases, to Europe's alarm
To those who just can't see how politics is involved in this subject, let's look at the difference between how well the EU is doing versus the US. The European Union has a higher combined population than the United States, but has an estimated total of 2,000,000 cases of COVID-19 while the US has over 5 million cases now. One has a non-political view of public health measures the other has a large group that only sees politics involved in basic public health measures.

Edit: EU has just under 2 million cases of COVID-19 as of August 10th - 1,820,986 cases according to COVID-19 pandemic

 

[dfwatt]

Unfortunately, that is how the media treats it. "My uninformed opinion is just as valid as your science."

Yes exactly. And really you're starting to see the explicit statement that "science is just a (political) opinion." This is a shocking reversal and even an inversion of science's epistemology, which is aimed at getting opinion out of the process as much as possible and simply considering weight of evidence. Nothing is proven by one experimental result, one finding or one study. It's the cumulative weight of evidence that supports scientific conclusions.

Everybody that does science for a living that I talk to or interact with is horrified by the way in which the blogosphere and social media are contributing to the idea that there are a range of equally valid opinions about scientific questions, including those of scientists. It is unfortunately part of the Insidious efforts to undercut facts and any version of the truth and to create a post-fact era in which those in power can promulgate and perpetuate their authority and privilege.

Social media has become the leading vehicle for this kind of systemic cultural brainwashing. I wish I had a more optimistic conclusion but it really looks as though social media has been very substantially although not completely co-opted in the service of disinformation. Obviously not everything on social media is disinformation and I don't want people to take what I'm saying that way, but a sizable fraction of it is. And the disinformation fraction gets more clicks, likes, retweets, and reiterations. Right now lots of people are reading and getting all of their information about covid-19 from posts on social media that are actually generated by Russian Bots.

And we have virtually no way of knowing that that's the case when we read a post on Facebook or a tweet. And Facebook has made it clear that they are not going to make any real effort to intercept this. "Freedom of speech" has really become the freedom to manipulate and misinform large sectors of the population.

 

[jerry33]

Social media has become the leading vehicle for this kind of systemic cultural brainwashing. I wish I had a more optimistic conclusion but it really looks as though social media has been very substantially although not completely co-opted in the service of disinformation. Obviously not everything on social media is disinformation and I don't want people to take what I'm saying that way, but a sizable fraction of it is. And the disinformation fraction gets more clicks, likes, retweets, and reiterations. Right now lots of people are reading and getting all of their information about covid-19 from posts on social media that are actually generated by Russian Bots.

This happens only if you read your newsfeed. Private groups are different because membership is somewhat restricted (depending upon the admins). Personally, I can't stand the newsfeed.

 

[dfwatt]

This happens only if you read your newsfeed. Private groups are different because membership is somewhat restricted (depending upon the admins). Personally, I can't stand the newsfeed.

That explains it. I don't have a news feed and I don't do Facebook.

 

[jerry33]

That explains it. I don't have a news feed and I don't do Facebook.

I wouldn't except there are some groups (including the local Tesla Owners group) that use it plus a couple of friends. Twitter I don't do.