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Since the median of the incubation period is only three days, maybe the situation is not as bad as the one week mean your estimate is based on.

What matters is not so much the numbers (you're not seeing new cases at the moment that people were infected - you're seeing people who got infected nearly a week ago, and not all at once); it's how much the government acknowledges the problem, how strongly they're responding to the problem, and how sound their isolation response is. In South Korea, the virus found a near-perfect host in terms of a cult, but R0 only applies for populations where no action is being taken and people go about their normal lives.

Iran is more concerning because for the most part people are going about their normal lives. When the situation is not properly acknowledged and proper measures not taken, the disease can continue its spread unhindered - every week, a new round of multiplications. I want to see convincing evidence that Iran is getting on top of this. I want to see the reported case rate in Iran spike, because the death rates and the outsiders-got-infected-inside-Iran rates suggest that there's a lot of latent cases that have not been detected - or at least, reported - yet. I want to see the public in infected areas at least wearing masks and being told to wash their hands, and workplaces taking control measures.

Outbreak centres can be controlled, but it takes acknowledgement and active measures to do so, and it's a slow process. The deeper a disease gets established, the more stringent the necessary measures and the longer it takes. Iran is only shooting itself in the foot here. All of its neighbors are going to end up closing their borders and airlines cutting of flights, and soon, if they don't step up.
 
Nice selective quoting. Hey, I can play that game too!
I could keep going on and on. But this is a really stupid game. "What random Chinese people are saying in the comments section of a Youtube video" is a dumb enough game, but "Selectively quoting what random Chinese people are saying in the comments section of a Youtube video" takes the cake.

Anyway, the numbers overnight that I wasn't able to stay up for:

Hubei: 398
Other China: 11

Sure, you can play dumb games, but the dumbest one is ignoring the original poster's title and the subtitles he placed in the video.
 
Daily numbers are in.
  • Japan: Decent.
  • Good trending on South Korea, but it's still way too soon to make too much of it. Lots of cult members left who could come down with the disease, and who knows what areas they may have seeded. But at least South Korea is on high alert for the disease.
  • Italy is flatlined. Apparently lots of paranoia and media fear-spreading in Italy right now (which is, at least, a good thing as far as disease containment goes).
  • Iran's 18 new cases remains entirely unbelievable. By contrast, of today's 16 "other global" cases, 15 of them were people in the Middle East who got infected in Iran. For me to start believing that they're actually controlling this, I want to see those numbers get well over 100 per day. :Þ
  • Hubei had another number glitch, which is never encouraging; they reported 499 new cases in Hubei, but the totals equate to only 304 new ones added. I used the change in the total for today's graph. The difference seems to roughly match an inverse number glitch several days ago.
  • Other China continues to trend down. If it legitimately is trending down this well outside of Wuhan, this is superb.

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Daily numbers are in.
  • Japan: Decent.
  • Good trending on South Korea, but it's still way too soon to make too much of it. Lots of cult members left who could come down with the disease, and who knows what areas they may have seeded. But at least South Korea is on high alert for the disease.
  • Italy is flatlined. Apparently lots of paranoia and media fear-spreading in Italy right now (which is, at least, a good thing as far as disease containment goes).
  • Iran's 18 new cases remains entirely unbelievable. By contrast, of today's 16 "other global" cases, 15 of them were people in the Middle East who got infected in Iran. For me to start believing that they're actually controlling this, I want to see those numbers get well over 100 per day. :Þ
  • Hubei had another number glitch, which is never encouraging; they reported 499 new cases in Hubei, but the totals equate to only 304 new ones added. I used the change in the total for today's graph. The difference seems to roughly match an inverse number glitch several days ago.
  • Other China continues to trend down. If it legitimately is trending down this well outside of Wuhan, this is superb.

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Thanks for making these posts! Is there any way you could also include 1 simple table with all the numbers? The graphs are great for some purposes (trends for example), but to quickly find a number they're quite bad. Like for example, you said Japan numbers are decent, and it took me a minute to figure out the new Japan number. A simple table would be much easier for this.
 
Daily numbers are in.
  • Japan: Decent.
  • Good trending on South Korea, but it's still way too soon to make too much of it. Lots of cult members left who could come down with the disease, and who knows what areas they may have seeded. But at least South Korea is on high alert for the disease.
  • Italy is flatlined. Apparently lots of paranoia and media fear-spreading in Italy right now (which is, at least, a good thing as far as disease containment goes).
  • Iran's 18 new cases remains entirely unbelievable. By contrast, of today's 16 "other global" cases, 15 of them were people in the Middle East who got infected in Iran. For me to start believing that they're actually controlling this, I want to see those numbers get well over 100 per day. :Þ
  • Hubei had another number glitch, which is never encouraging; they reported 499 new cases in Hubei, but the totals equate to only 304 new ones added. I used the change in the total for today's graph. The difference seems to roughly match an inverse number glitch several days ago.
  • Other China continues to trend down. If it legitimately is trending down this well outside of Wuhan, this is superb.

View attachment 514866

View attachment 514867

View attachment 514881

View attachment 514887

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The Other China trend is again very encouraging.

New cases in the past 5 days have been: 60, 31, 18, 11, 9.

This is down from a peak of towards 900 and relative to total cumulative cases in Other China of 12,872.

I get there is likely some scepticism towards China's numbers, but I still think it looks quite clear that they are beating the virus in China and that the virus can be contained if countries take it seriously.
There are still less than 2,000 cases outside of China and Diamond Princess, so if China could reverse an outbreak of 13,000 people across the whole country, I think there is a good chance Italy, South Korea and Japan will get on top of it too.

Iran is a different story as they still seem to be in denial and the outbreak there looks to be widespread.
 
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IMHO fears of the COVID-19 are grossly exagerated - remember the H1N1 "emergency" proven later a complete debacle/ non-event (the vaccine developed and administered with great fanfare at the time was also useless since it targeted the wrong virus). So cui bono?
Turns out in this case it's the Russians if you are to believe your own presumably knowledgeable Defense Agencies, and the well regarded Guardian news, see Coronavirus: US says Russia behind disinformation campaign
 
Iran is a different story as they still seem to be in denial and the outbreak there looks to be widespread.
I don't have any insight into Iran's medical system but I do wonder if they even have the ability to diagnose cases. Beyond that technical detail I presume the politics are messy and non-transparent. China invited the WHO and other international experts to enter China; so far as I know nothing similar is true for Iran.
 
Per this media report
Iran is closing schools, scrambling for hospital places, and spraying disinfectant in the subway as coronavirus deaths and cases spike

Iran has closed schools as of Sunday and banned 'cultural events' like soccer matches. One official has said that Teheran will be put in Quarantine if new cases are found. China acted with more aggressive health measures but at least Iran are not complete idiots.

On the other hand, here is a photo from an open air market. Note that only three people are wearing masks, and the wrong type at that.

Screen Shot 2020-02-25 at 6.46.27 AM.jpg
 
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Per this media report
Iran is closing schools, scrambling for hospital places, and spraying disinfectant in the subway as coronavirus deaths and cases spike

Iran has closed schools as of Sunday and banned 'cultural events' like soccer matches. One official has said that Teheran will be put in Quarantine if new cases are found. China acted with more aggressive health measures but at least Iran are not complete idiots.

On the other hand, here is a photo from an open air market. Note that only three people are wearing masks, and the wrong type at that.

View attachment 515018

Well, it's a start. Not enough, not soon enough.

I fully expect that Iran is going to infect Syria (where they have tens of thousands of paramilitary and regular troops, and regularly make supply flights). A country which will do at least as poor of a job at detecting and containing it as Iran. Pestilence love War.

I don't care much about little isolated pockets around the world that get caught. If you catch it, and you act, you're controlling it. But creating a massive uncontained reservoir of people who don't know that they might be spreading the disease, these are the people which seed new areas. Including smugglers who cross porous borders, creating regular headaches for their neighbors.

I'm so ticked off with Iran about this. Italy and South Korea will ultimately contain their outbreaks. Japan seems to already be containing theirs, and even the source of the outbreak, China, has been doing a great job. But Iran's actions will extend this disease for months and cost billions to countries outside Iran, let alone within Iran itself. Putting out dozens of new "fires" that spring up as a result of Iran's inaction.
 
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Containment does not seem likely. Eventually, most everyone may be infected. Unless you somehow manage to avoid it until a vaccine is available.

Containment of COVID-17, like all diseases, is absolutely possible. Outbreaks can be, and repeatedly have been, stamped out, and their spread prevented; all it takes is responsible authorities and a generally cooperative public.

But the actions of countries like Iran inevitably create numerous new outbreaks that nations that are doing the right thing have to stamp out at great expense. It's frustrating as all get out, because in the process of shooting themselves in the foot, they're also shooting everyone else in the foot.
 
The Italian outbreak is due to a hospital that did not follow the rules and processes.

For that reason its been simply not identified as COVID and could spread easily without control.

I am always stunned how badly some hospitals take care of hygiene (before COVID) and don't follow WHO regulations believing they know better. Some people make mistakes and you have an entire continent in panic and severe damage done including deaths because as we know already from China where numbers go down now its no easy to contain after it spread uncontrolled.

Once they wake up and take the warning easily and if all follow the rules regardless where addition outbreaks happen they should be able to isolate and eliminate them.

Italy scrambles to contain coronavirus after admitting hospital mess-up - CNN
 
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Containment of COVID-17, like all diseases, is absolutely possible. Outbreaks can be, and repeatedly have been, stamped out, and their spread prevented; all it takes is responsible authorities and a generally cooperative public.

But the actions of countries like Iran inevitably create numerous new outbreaks that nations that are doing the right thing have to stamp out at great expense. It's frustrating as all get out, because in the process of shooting themselves in the foot, they're also shooting everyone else in the foot.

COVID-17(sic)?? Containment with the aid of effective therapeutics and vaccines is possible but that's not where we're at. Some outbreaks have been contained in the past but every one is different and SARS-CoV-2 has never been seen before. You have every right to your opinion, but there is a consensus building and I agree with the Harvard Professor. We will know a lot more after CDC has acquired the needed test kits and we start doing random testing.